The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has a chairman, Adamu Mauzu, who’s affectionately
called the game changer.
But did the game actually change for the party with the open walkout on President
Goodluck Jonathan at the party’s special convention ground in Abuja by seven governors
and other national leaders who went to gather at another venue to constitute a parallel
leadership?
Although two of the governors – Babangida Aliyu (Niger) and Sule Lamido (Jigawa) –
remained in the party, governors Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto) Rabiu
Kwakwanso (Kano), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) continued
with the struggle and eventually teamed up with the opposition All Progressives Congress
(APC).
So, did President Jonathan lose the March 28 election that August 13 when he couldn’t
handle the ‘august’ defection members of the PDP?
Hindsight is foresight late on the scene.
To put it in another way, it is wisdom that has arrived late to the game.
The voice of hindsight will now be telling President Jonathan:
“I wish I had thought of that.”
“I wish I knew then what I know now.”
“I would have; I could have; I should…hold the party together the way I met it.”
But do election figures back the claim that on hindsight, the president lost the last
election in August 13, 2013?
Let’s do the math.
The PDP had total votes of 12,853,162 in the presidential election to APC’s 15,424,921
losing with a margin of 2,571,759 votes in the 36 states and FCT.
Here’s the breakdown of the results of the five states that broke away from the PDP to the
APC:
STATE APC 2015 PDP 2015
Rivers 69,238 1,487,075
Adamawa 374,701 251,664
Kano 1,903,999 215, 779
Sokoto 671,926 152,199
Kwara 302,146 132,602
Total 3,322,010 2,239,319
We have to adjust for the “Amaechi-effect”, which is to swap the votes in the five states
and give PDP APC figures and assume a PDP that’s still intact.
The ruling party now has a deficit of 1,489,068 (i.e. 3,322,010 – 2,239,319 – 2,571,759) as
against the initial 2,571,759 votes.
Going by this calculation, the APC would still have won without Amaechi and co.
But surely, you know it goes beyond calculations and figures?
We know. But before we come to that, let us look at figures from 2011 presidential election.
STATE CPC 2011 ACN 2011 PDP 2011
Rivers 13,182 16,382 1,817,762
Adamawa 344,526 32,786 508, 314
Kano 1,624,543 42,353 440,666
Sokoto 540,769 20,144 309,057
Kwara 83,603 52,432 268, 243
Total 2,606,623 164,097 3,344,042
The CPC, which merged with ACN and other parties (whose figures we want to ignore for
convenience sake) to form APC in 2013, had a total of 2,770,720 votes in 2011, compared
with PDP’s 3,344,042 in the five states under review.
We swapped the votes in the 2015 figures so as to adjust for the Amaechi-effect, but we do
not have to do that for the 2011 figures. Then PDP was “intact”.
So, juxtaposing 2011 and 2015 figures for APC (CPC + ACN) and PDP bring up identical
votes!
APC had 2,239,319 (remember we are using the Amaechi-effect figures) in 2015 and
2,770,720 in 2011. The difference of 531,401 in both election results is not negligible but
then it’s not “transformational” neither could it have made “change” possible!
PDP had 3,322,010 (swapped votes to adjust for Amaechi-effect) in 2015 and 3,344,042. But
unlike in the case of the votes recorded by APC in the elections, the difference of 22,032 is
negligible.
Figures don’t lie, but on hindsight, the president lost because he couldn’t put his fingers
on some other factors .
And hindsight is the ability to gain clarity by looking back in retrospect.

Realy

Yes but the election in rivers state has never been free and fair so the results there is full of irregularities

Those northern states neva voted for him in 2011. Jonathan biggest mistake was allowing tinubu make the yourbas hated his govt.

His biggest mistake is neglecting the real people and he allowed the sycophants to control him.
Honestly I can't bare the thought of Pej ruling this country for another 4 years while all the clueless and anti people's actions can not be allowed anymore.

It was the combination with the west that have APC the victory. That's the truth.

ROCKJ1:
It was the combination with the west that have APC the victory. That's the truth.

yes a combination of the west and Apc members in his cabinet removed him and he fail to address or curb that alliance

seunfly:
His biggest mistake is neglecting the real people and he allowed the sycophants to control him.
Honestly I can't bare the thought of Pej ruling this country for another 4 years while all the clueless and anti people's actions can not be allowed anymore.

I think so too, his wife was another wahala herself