Will Boko Haram ever attack Lagos?
News Analysis
By Tope Okunola, Assistant Features Editor

Close your eyes and imagine this dreadful scenario: a bang in downtown Lagos, hundreds dead including women and children, blood flow like a stream. Seconds later, a powerful explosion targeting the Third Mainland Bridge which links the city’s mainland, this twilight, wrecked havoc and threw homebound workers in turmoil. Never! God forbid! But experts think otherwise. An array of security operatives that spoke to Irohinoodua express fear that Lagos, in weeks, months or in the nearest future, might be a choice target of the Islamic extremist group, Boko Haram.

“It’s not a wish, but a warning” Dare Adeogun, a retired official of the defunct Nigerian Security Organisation, (NSO) told Irohinoodua on Thursday. He said “the military under President Goodluck Jonathan launched an attack on the insurgent’s bases in the North. They have been dispersed into dangerous cells. I expect that the next thing will be revenge and blind killings spreading across the country.”

Boko Haram is the extremist group that nurtures the impossible dream of hijacking Nigeria’s 160 million of plural ethnicity and faith, promising to convert the vast territory into an Islamic State. The group has recently rebranded to be Islamic State of West Africa. Though the group has restricted its operations to the core Northern states, fears that it might spread its tentacles into the South West is real, though authorities in the industrial region seem numb and non-challant and appear not to have a strategic plan in place.

One former official of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, (DMI) told Irohinoodua that Boko Haram’s presence in the Southwest has been further accentuated by the regional coalition established by Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon. The official who sought anonymity said the coalition will drive BH from its conventional war plan into a professional urban guerilla movement. “The way Boko Haram has taken the battle to Cameroon and Chad, SouthWest States especially Lagos should think ahead. The city, being Nigeria’s most significant economic hub might be the next target,” he warned. He is also concerned that the mainstream Yoruba leadership seems to have gone to sleep with Buhari’s victory, whereas the greatest fraud in Nigeria, which is the lopsided federal structure and the source of the country’s woes remain unresolved. “The Yoruba leaders are making the grave mistake of focusing on Buhari as a honest person without focusing on building an honest structure that has enduring integrity.”

Since 2009 when the group’s leader, Mohammed Yusuf was killed on July 30 that year, over 8,000 people have been murdered either through violent village raids or bomb attacks on worship places. The bloody surge, coupled with the crisis in the Maghreb region has led to migration of mainly displaced people into the South West in search for survival in a region believed to be more peaceful. Apart from BH activities, ethnic and religious strife in the Middle Belt and the ban on Okada in many Northern states has increased the population of the SW. The consequences are more felt in rural Yoruba territories taken over by desperate, sometimes gun-wielding people fleeing the troubled regions. In many instances, this has resulted in violent clashes and culture shock. But why has BH not deemed it fit to attack Lagos? Apart from being West Africa’s economic oasis, the region is host to the largest festival congregation of Christians, through monthly and yearly prayer congresses, drawing millions of worshipers. While Adeogun said the BH can only attack a place where it has “built sustainable strategic manpower” with “local sympathy”, another serving State Security Official who does not wish to be named said that BH ‘is only bidding its time to attack Lagos probably at a time that it will make the highest political capital.” While admitting that the BH will not find allies in the local population, he said intelligence reports however indicate that the militant group has strong cells in the South West areas. There are suggestions that the emergence of General Mohammadu Buhari should douse the upsurge given his military background, but some analysts argue that terrorism is a cancer that no nation, not even the US and Russia have been able to solve, not to talk of a fragile, corrupt country like Nigeria, run largely by highly polarized and indiscipline security operatives. There are also fears that a third force, seeking the break-up of Nigeria may attack the SW, in the name of BH, in order to draw the region’s fang.

An official of the Oodua Nationalist Coalition, (ONAC), Mr Saliu Akinbami said “The SW is vulnerable and extremely week. Buhari wont perform a magic about Boko Haram. For instance, about 70 percent of Okada riders in Lagos are from the North. We now have a huge population of migrants from Chad, Niger and Mali apart from Northerners that have invaded the SW in large numbers.” He said further “The consequences are that Boko Haram is expected to have seized this opportunity with both hands. With this huge population of migrants who are notorious for being armed with at least a dagger each, one can only fear for the peace of Lagos.” The SW nove riche takes delight in employing them as guards, but Akinbami said there lay another peril. “These people are employed without documentation. When you employ one, about 10 of them will stay with that person. The danger is real.” He listed the possible impact of a BH attack in Lagos thus : shock, trauma and confusion. He said as a race, the last time the Yoruba fought wars on Yoruba territory was in 1886 adding that today’s generation who are used to a life of leisure, will suffer “shock, trauma and confusion” in the face of a possible BH attack on Lagos.

He suggests that the SouthWest governors should begin massive public sensitization on terrorism. Popoola Ajayi, an official of The Covenant Group, (CG), a Pan Yoruba group suggested that local governments, communities, artisans, the poor and the rich should be involved in what he called “popular defence” saying that the current character and form of the Nigerian security cannot ensure peace and stability necessary for inflow of foreign investments. He said “Its unfortunate that the SW governors are waiting for disaster before they begin to think of what to do” adding that all the 19 states of the North have armed vigilante groups eventhough some of them claim to be opposed to state police. Akinbami said public enlightenment in the South West on what to do in case of terror attack is crucial to minimise the impact.
Hear him “this will serve purposes: Prepare the people psychologically, help them on strategies needed to help victims and teach them on what to do when and if attacked.” At the moment, he said the Southwest governments seem to be more concerned about the politics of power, than the politics of the peoples’ survival.

Col Borode Ajiboye (rtd) told Irohinodua that the SW governors need “a regional integrated plan and needs to create a civil intelligence port”, adding that the constitution of the country is not against that. He said none of the SW state should think it can deal with terrorism or economic downtown all alone. “The US usually fights using a coalition. In the same way, Lagos and SW states need an integrated plan. The SW states need to work with other neighbouring ECOWAS countries for intelligence gathering. They should not wait for the Federal government.” He suggested the setting up of what he called the “SouthWest Homeland Affairs Board” to be coordinated by a top Yoruba retired intelligence officer. He said no meaningful development will come to the SouthWest especially when foreign investors see a potentially unstable and insecure environment.

According to him, any BH attack will lead to spontaneous crash of the stock exchange and loss of confidence of investors. “What will happen is that Investors will move out of Lagos immediately or on the long run. There will also be violent inter-ethnic reactions which will put the country on the edge.”According to him “it does not appear that any of the SW governors is thinking strategically on this almost imminent pitfall.” In a way, not even a regional security meeting of the SW states has been held since BH began terror campaign in 2009, in spite of the fact that not less than 1000 Yoruba people, including Professors, have been victims of BH attacks.
Okunola is the features editor of Irohinoodua

i made it

you dey mad op// y u no call osun,ekiti,imo,ondo,ogun etc

Katastrofy:
you dey mad op// y u no call osun,ekiti,imo,ondo,ogun etc

you dey crase,, why will you even call any state in the first instance.. You com call 5 state.. In fact bother of una dey kolo

See question

U wan invite them

NO

Watch the entire Yoruba people abandone Lagos and run to Benin Republic, some will be shitting on their pants why running

AnambraDota:
Watch the entire Yoruba people abandone Lagos and run to Benin Republic, some will be shitting on their pants why running

Common unarmed boko haram prisoner sent all the Igbo into refuge camp.

Op i hp is jst a dream

omoelesa:
Common unarmed boko haram prisoner sent all the Igbo into refuge camp.

Hahahahahahahhahahahahahahah

Yoruba people will flee like they did in 1993, they got no gut to defend their land, they lost to Fulani Invaders, they lost to Dahomey Amazon women suffering painful menstruation, what they know how to do is protest against Biafrans

AnambraDota:


Hahahahahahahhahahahahahahah

Yoruba people will flee like they did in 1993, they got no gut to defend their land, they lost to Fulani Invaders, they lost to Dahomey Amazon women suffering painful menstruation, what they know how to do is protest against Biafrans

We all know the usain bolt of nigeria is ojukwu.

IMPOSSICANT .....not my Lagos.....God forbid!

omoelesa:
We all know the usain bolt of nigeria is ojukwu.

Babafemi Ogundipe was the first person to jar, we still know The weeping Generals and the Rat Poisoned used and dumped sage

Hian! OP, why do you have to single out Lagos?

Anyway, that's why Boko Haram issue should have been taken as a National crisis right from onset instead of levity that it was been treated with . Boko Haram is not a Northern issue. As far is still exist, no one is safe in this country.

AnambraDota:


Babafemi Ogundipe was the first person to jar, we still know The weeping Generals and the Rat Poisoned used and dumped sage

At least those people u mention did'nt cause any harm to anybody.unlike ojukwu who wasted the life of millions of ibos, then Ben Johnson to abijan instead of fighting gallantly like General Sembibi of angola and John Gyrand Of south sudan.no wonder ibos have been losing since 1967.

I think attack in any part of this country is an attack on the entire nation. We should stop all this negative "ism" such as but not limited to; individualism, tribalism, 'bigoitism', nepotism, 'I don't carism'.