http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13447405

What if the president goes?
Apr 8th 2009 | LAGOS
From The Economist print edition

Umaru Yar’Adua’s ill-health is fuelling dangerous speculation


IN AN office in Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, economists scour the morning’s newspapers for photographs of President Umaru Yar’Adua, hoping to divine a clue as to his well-being. The global financial crisis and the dive in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export, are forcing the country’s businessmen and investors to rethink Nigeria’s hitherto unusually hopeful economic outlook. Ministers admit that Nigeria is in for a rough time. The prevailing view, however, is that it should be able to ride out the storm, provided there are no bad political squalls.



But what if the long-ailing president were to die or leave office prematurely? Then, says Bismarck Rewane, a prominent financier, all bets are off. When the departing president, Olusegun Obasanjo, hand-picked Mr Yar’Adua in 2007 to succeed him, the new man’s health immediately aroused concern. As governor of a remote northern state, Katsina, he set up a specialist unit in his local hospital to treat a chronic kidney ailment. On the campaign trail, his soft voice and persistent cough contrasted unfavourably with the rumbustious ways of Mr Obasanjo.

Since Mr Yar’Adua moved into his presidential villa, a string of long and unexplained trips abroad has fuelled speculation that his health is worsening. When photographers in the federal capital, Abuja, were recently barred from taking close-up pictures of him, rumours reached fever pitch. There were whispers about the effects of smoking on Mr Yar’Adua’s lungs. The government’s lack of candour on such matters merely fuels the gossip. Ministers have repeatedly insisted the president is hale and hearty, even as he is whisked into hospital in Germany or Saudi Arabia.

A political upset would shake the relative stability Nigeria has enjoyed since the end of military rule in 1999. The economy has grown steadily. Though severe problems remain, Nigeria’s poorest are better off and less bullied than they were under the generals. But if Mr Yar’Adua’s health worsens, it could threaten the northerners’ grip on power and on the lucrative apparatus of government.

Political power in Nigeria is still allotted in back-room deals to ensure that the top job alternates between the elites of the largely Muslim north and Christian south: a “gentlemen’s agreement” to allow the ungentlemanly feasting on the country’s billions of dollars of stolen and mismanaged oil resources. Nigeria is still one of the world’s most corrupt countries.

Mr Yar’Adua, a pious Muslim, succeeded Mr Obasanjo, a southern Christian, in the expectation of serving the maximum two consecutive four-year terms. The northerners think that eight years at the trough were duly agreed. But if Mr Yar’Adua had to leave early, the constitution says that the vice-president, Goodluck Jonathan, would take the helm until elections at the end of the four-year cycle. Mr Jonathan is another southern Christian. The northerners would not look kindly on his accession, even if he had only two years in office. Yet a power struggle at the top could destabilise the country all over again.

strangleyo:

http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13447405

What if the president goes?
Apr 8th 2009 | LAGOS
From The Economist print edition

Umaru Yar’Adua’s ill-health is fuelling dangerous speculation


A political upset would shake the relative stability Nigeria has enjoyed since the end of military rule in 1999. The economy has grown steadily. Though severe problems remain, Nigeria’s poorest are better off and less bullied than they were under the generals. But if Mr Yar’Adua’s health worsens, it could threaten the northerners’ grip on power and on the lucrative apparatus of government.

Political power in Nigeria is still allotted in back-room deals to ensure that the top job alternates between the elites of the largely Muslim north and Christian south: a “gentlemen’s agreement” to allow the ungentlemanly feasting on the country’s billions of dollars of stolen and mismanaged oil resources. Nigeria is still one of the world’s most corrupt countries.

I like the highlighted part of the article. The reporter decribed it perfectly!

This is what I love about the economist. They say it how it is.

Apparently everyone across the world understand African politics apart from the African people.

The next president will NOT be decided in the ballot. He will be decided in a meeting between the representative parties in a backroom deal.