‎Mathematics of Saraki's Survival 

APC : 59 Senators 

PDP : 49 Senators 

Gov Wamakko a strong ally of Saraki  Controls SOKOTO firmly and  APC has 3 from there

Gov Danjuma Goje a known Saraki Supporter has 2 other Senator's from Gombe on his side 


Kwara has 2 other senators who are die hard Saraki Loyalists 

Kogi has 2 APC Senators Dino and Ohiare who also back Saraki 

Kabiru Gaya and his Colleague from Kano are with Saraki on this one evidenced by his appearance at CCT. 
Kwankwaso will not want to display his support for Saraki so as not to mar his likely emergence as FCT minister 


Tayo Alasoadura : the Ostracised APCsenator from Ondo is also with Saraki 

Hamma Missau from Bauchi and Tijjani Kaura Zamfara were also with Saraki at the CCT amongst many others I did not list. 

In total Saraki has atleast 20 APC senators on his side 

20 APC Senators + 49 PDP Senators 

69 Senators out of 109 leaves Tinubus camp with a 40 senators

Except they create another senate that holds settings in the Villa or Bourdillion I don't see  them sweeping Saraki out with Impeachment.

NB: This piece is based on many assumptions which are in themselves not sacrosanct

[This piece is based on many assumptions which are in themselves not sacrosanct]

Thank God you pointed the above out.

is saraki a PDP man?

what if PDP has another agenda...in controlling the house!

if saraki is impeached who gains more?

mr OP..answer these questions for me?

Tomorrow is near.

DDeliverer:
is saraki a PDP man?

what if PDP has another agenda...in controlling the house!

if saraki is impeached who gains more?

mr OP..answer these questions for me?

Hypothetical PDP can lead the senate but mathematically it is almost impossible to achieve such a feat the peace of the. Senate cannot be guaranteed under such set up.

We are watching. Season film!

Ok

Apply BODMAS and calculus and you would derieve a better result

House Of Cards!!

Do you know you can generate Gas from your animal waste, this gas can be used to cook and power your generator.. So Why Do you still spend so much on fuel when you can make your own fuel?..

If politics works like that Saraki won't be going from Emirs to Presidents seeking soft landing.

As beloved as Faruk Lawan was, he stepped down when corruption charge overwhelmed him. How will it look like if Saraki is to advise the citizen on when graft is bad?

(Saraki may not be guilty, but he is seen as guilty in the court of public opinion who stone him)

Ahahahahahahahaha
Huhuhuhuhuhuhuhuhuh
Kwa kwa kwa kwa kwaaaa
PDP should shine their eyes. APC wants to control all over, only this senate is still a cog in the wheel of APC now. Probably: having the agenda of enacting draconian laws in this I'll fated country. Shit!!!

What OP n co do not understand is that Buhari is a highly revered politician in the north. This is a man "not the president At that" that raised the hand of novice Shekarau who defeated an incumbent to clinch the governorship seat.

Any northern senator against the wish of Buhari whether Wamako Dipo or any other From Gombe or Jupiter can be helpful in maintaining Saraki's hold to power but he should be rest assured he would not be returning 2019. How many of these senators no longer want to be senators ? None.

omowolewa:
If politics works like that Saraki won't be going from Emirs to Presidents to seek soft landing.

As loved as Faruk Lawan was, he stepped down when corruption charge overwhelmed him.

Farouk Lawan stepped down as what exactly? Anyone waiting for Saraki to resign will wait forever!! Also the impeachment proceedings against him will fail as the opposition camp will not even be able to secure a simple majority let alone a 2/3 majority.

The only route left is through the very lenghty court process and time is not on the APC's side.

omowolewa:
If politics works like that Saraki won't be going from Emirs to Presidents to seek soft landing.

As loved as Faruk Lawan was, he stepped down when corruption charge overwhelmed him.

WHERE DID YOU SEE SARAKI BEGGING FOR SUPPORT FROM BIG BOYS OF NAIJA. WAS IT NOT ON THE PAGES OF NEWSPAPERS. IF THE APC HAD THE NUMBERS AND THE POWERS TO OUST SARAKI, LAWAN WOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE SEAT SINCE APRIL. HENCE THE NEED FOR ALL THIS MUDSLINGING AND PUBLIC BASHING. IF YOU MUST KNOW, THE PLOT BEHIND THE CCT DID NOT FALL THROUGH, AS THEIR REAL INTENTIONS AND PLANS WERE MADE KNOWN FOR ALL TO SEE. COME TOMORROW, THE HOUSE WILL PASS ANOTHER VOTE OF CONFIDENCE ON THE LEADERSHIP OF THE HOUSE, AND SARAKI WILL, THUS, CONTINUE AS THE SP. THE APC HAS ONCE AGAIN LOST THE BATTLE, LET THEM GO AND PLAN FOR THE WAR, IF NOT, THEY WILL LOSE THAT AS WELL.

ayokellany:
What OP n co do not understand is that Buhari is a highly revered politician in the north. This is a man "not the president At that" that raised the hand of novice Shekarau who defeated an incumbent to clinch the governorship seat.

Any northern senator against the wish of Buhari whether Wamako Dipo or any other From Gombe or Jupiter can be helpful in maintaining Saraki's hold to power but he should be rest assured he would not be returning 2019. How many of these senators no longer want to be senators ? None.

Continue to make a fool of yourself!! As 2019 approaches,more and more politicians will decamp to and fro bothe political divides,The PDP would field a northern candidate and elections will be won across political parties!! Only a fool will expect the APC to win 100% of the elecions in the north!!

chukwudi44:


Continue to make a fool of yourself!! As 2019 approaches,more and more politicians will decamp to and fro bothe political divides,The PDP would field a northern candidate and elections will be won across political parties!! Only a fool will expect the APC to win 100% of the elecions in the north!!

a lot of people dont realise Buhari won because he ran against a Southerner and JEGA is INEC chairman

Against a moderate Northerner in tune with modernity, Buhari just has no chance!

YouWin, I wish. Let see how everything plays out. What I know is that 2/3 would be availablbe when its needed.
Like it was for Chuba Okadigbo, Salisu Buhari, Ewerem and Co.
Except you're privy to inside info which am not, we are all speculators in the current game.

chukwudi44:


Farouk Lawan stepped down as what exactly? Anyone waiting for Saraki to resign will wait forever!! Also the impeachment proceedings against him will fail as the opposition camp will not even be able to secure a simple majority let alone a 2/3 majority.

The only route left is through the very lenghty court process and time is not on the APC's side.

hinwazaka:

WHERE DID YOU SEE SARAKI BEGGING FOR SUPPORT FROM BIG BOYS OF NAIJA. WAS IT NOT ON THE PAGES OF NEWSPAPERS. IF THE APC HAD THE NUMBERS AND THE POWERS TO OUST SARAKI, LAWAN WOULD HAVE BEEN ON THE SEAT SINCE APRIL. HENCE THE NEED FOR ALL THIS MUDSLINGING AND PUBLIC BASHING. IF YOU MUST KNOW, THE PLOT BEHIND THE CCT DID NOT FALL THROUGH, AS THEIR REAL INTENTIONS AND PLANS WERE MADE KNOWN FOR ALL TO SEE. COME TOMORROW, THE HOUSE WILL PASS ANOTHER VOTE OF CONFIDENCE ON THE LEADERSHIP OF THE HOUSE, AND SARAKI WILL, THUS, CONTINUE AS THE SP. THE APC HAS ONCE AGAIN LOST THE BATTLE, LET THEM GO AND PLAN FOR THE WAR, IF NOT, THEY WILL LOSE THAT AS WELL.

omowolewa:
YouWin, I wish. Let see how everything plays out. What I know is that 2/3 would be availablbe when its needed.
Like it was for Chuba Okadigbo, Salisu Buhari, Ewerem and Co.
Except you're prvy to inside info, we are all speculator in the current game

Tommorrow is not far,go and impeach him let us see.You are talking about Okadigbo and Enwerem when PDP had over 80 senators and were united not the slim majority APC today has and even at that they are not united

you don't seem to get it. the A leadership is aware of the likelihood of your calculation . hence, approaching his ouster from another angle (which is the CCT) the CCT has power to impeach any erring public servant(senate oresident inclusive).

Femmyfamous4u:
you don't seem to get it. the A leadership is aware of the likelihood of your calculation . hence, approaching his ouster from another angle (which is the CCT) the CCT has power to impeach any erring public servant(senate oresident inclusive).

point of correction. CCT can only sack him from Senate

They cant impeach him

Yes if he loses his seat as Senator then he is no longer Senate President. But thats not impeachment.

But also remember that the judgement of CCT can be challenged in a higher court!

Although the law says you are innocent until proven guilty which we all agree. Lets say the whole 109 senators are behind Dr saraki what will happen to the senate if Saraki fails to clear his name in the CCT.
The entire senate becomes an institution of shame and the mandate given by Nigerians to these legislator's becomes rubbished.
Allegations are just enough nowadays the senate cannot claim to be the citadel and guardian of our democracy with its Leader in court over false assets declaration.
Saraki should do what others before him have done resign and redeem whatever is left of his soiled reputation.

Shallow analysis once again. Have said it several times here that, Politics isn't mathematics! Hence, ur wrong title sef. Tho, this is a game of numbers, but before the number counts on the floor, the law of additive would have been dealt with externally. Political additives goes beyond pressing calculators. It encompasses many behind the scene scenarios that makes it very difficult to agree with 2+2=4.
All these Senators u mentioned know that it will be very hard to swing in a perceived direction because people are watching. It's a strong game, I accept, but definitely not for mathematicians.

.

Like someone above said - Politics is not Mathematics.

During political power play, the players consider their interest before anything else.

Let me show you what i mean........

1. Why do you think PDP is supporting Saraki that is not a PDP member and that also caused the loss of PDP at this last poll? Because they do not want APC to have their way. Its in their own best interest to support him now and thereby contributing to the implosion of APC.

Now let me now relate this analysis with my question above.

The APC senators you mentioned will only support Saraki if they feel their interests will not be protected (e.g. plum juicy positions in the house, anger against APC e.t.c and other petty reasons not known by us).

And again when push comes to shove and they realize their interests may not be protected by supporting Saraki (e.g. Hounding by security forces, witch hunting e.t.c and some other extreme measures/punishment not known to us) they may decide to withdraw support and let himface the music alone.

All i have said above is just to support the assertion that says Politics is not mathematics.
Like MisterLongman said and i quote----- These senators are not zombies, they are not definite i.e they can change goal post at any time