Poll Watch: Ben Carson Edges Ahead Nationally in Times/CBS News Poll

Ben Carson has taken a narrow lead nationally in the Republican presidential campaign, dislodging Donald J. Trump from the top spot for the first time in months, according to a New York Times/CBS News survey released on Tuesday.

Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the choice of 26 percent of Republican primary voters, the poll found, while Mr. Trump now wins support from 22 percent, although the difference lies within the margin of sampling error.

The survey is the first time that Mr. Trump has not led all candidates since The Times and CBS News began measuring presidential preferences at the end of July.

No other candidate comes close to Mr. Carson and Mr. Trump. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida received 8 percent while former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, are each the choice of 7 percent of Republican primary voters.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio each received support from 4 percent of those surveyed.

The poll represents a single waypoint in a long nominating process that has already seen considerable volatility. The third Republican debate is on Wednesday, which could further scramble the unsettled field. Such early polls have proven unreliable predictors of the eventual winner, and the first nominating contest, the Iowa caucus, is still more than three months away.

Indeed, the new survey shows that the vast majority of Republicans have not firmly made up their minds: Seven in 10 of those who expressed support for a candidate said it was too early to say for sure who they would support. Just 28 percent indicated that their minds were made up.

More than half of the Republican primary voters surveyed said they were now paying “a lot” of attention to the campaign, essentially unchanged from a CBS News survey in early October.

Over the same period, Mr. Carson has gained five percentage points, while Mr. Trump has fallen by five percentage points.

The new poll found that Mr. Trump’s supporters are firmer in their support than Mr. Carson’s. A majority of Trump supporters, 55 percent, said their minds were made up. But 80 percent of Carson backers said it was too early to say for sure that they would eventually support him.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted Oct. 21-25 on cellphones and landlines with 575 Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus six percentage points for each candidate. Additional findings from the full poll will be published Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.

This is one of an occasional series of posts taking a deeper look at polling during this campaign cycle.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/27/poll-watch-ben-carson-edges-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

OLAADEGBU:


Scott Olson/Getty Images

Lucasbalo:


What's your fetish with Ben Carson ?. He was a great pediatric brain surgeon but a poor politician. He can't even win in his Republican primary talk less of general election. He's nothing but a wacko point. I know because all his right wing views won't hep in in November next year. Hillary is the next President of the YS. I can't wait to pull the lever for her and so are tens of millions of Americans. All the states that matters in electoral votes tends Democratic.

OLAADEGBU:


We'll see. In the meantime Ben Carson should continue his surgical operation on Obama.

Lucasbalo:
What's your fetish with Ben Carson ?. He was a great pediatric brain surgeon but a poor politician. He can't even win in his Republican primary talk less of general election. He's nothing but a wacko point. I know because all his right wing views won't hep in in November next year. Hillary is the next President of the YS. I can't wait to pull the lever for her and so are tens of millions of Americans. All the states that matters in electoral votes tends Democratic.

Lucasbalo:


Obviously you don't know much about American politics or your hatred of Obama has clouded your judgement. Obama is a very successful man by any measurement. .i am from chicago and we knew of him before he became a politician.

Lucasbalo:


Firstly, I commend you for not throwing insults like some of the braistems on Nairaland.

Lucasbalo:


To your question. He's is a very successful man by all measuring scales not for his skin color but what he made of his life. Harvard law graduate. Community organizer and youth Mentor in Chicago. State Representative. Professor of law at University of Chicago which happens to be one of the best colleges in the World . US Senator and then President of the US. All this without a Father .

Lucasbalo:


I can go on but time is not on my time because I am in the office. You insinuated in your old posts that Obama is gay despite him being married with two beautiful daughters. You also insinuated he's not a Christian . He's a Christian but not right wing crazy Christian like Mike Huckabee.

Lucasbalo:


If you want to align yourself with White Racists and Republican hate Obama group, that's your problem. Overwhelming majority of Americans love Obama and that's why he won his second term. I think you live in Britain, I will wait till you have a Black PM in Britain and see the kind of hatred you will show him.

Lucasbalo:


To me and millions of Americans, Obama is a role model and a hero.

OLAADEGBU:


You're welcome, anytime.



When I compare Obama with Ben Carson especially before Obama became President Carson is far more successful. And he was raised by a single mother who was not a Caucasian. And for a non politician to be doing well thus far is brilliant.



Being "married" with "children" doesn't mean one is heterosexual.



There is more that happens behind the scene that you do not know. Obama is only the face that you see.



I can understand that if you share the same values with Obama.

Lucasbalo:


I want my son to grow up to be like Obama. That's how much I like and revered him.

Lucasbalo:


I have nothing against Dr Carson because i respect his achievement. He got into politics and he's being used by the right wing nuts in the GOP.

Lucasbalo:


Carson was raised by a single mum while Obama was raised by his Grandparents.

Lucasbalo:


You think Obama is a devil incarnate and majority of Americans love him hence he was elected twice.

Lucasbalo:


I am an Investment Banker and I know how america was before Obama came in Jan 2009. Under Bush, america was losing 700.000 jobs a month with all the Multi billion dollars corporations going south. He came and stabilize the situation.

Lucasbalo:


Obama a son of an African student in US getting to become a President is a thing of Pride for mankind not only blacks alone. When you get a Black PM in Britain, we can talk.

Lucasbalo:


Obama Presidency is a great pride for America herself as a country.

OLAADEGBU:


You better be careful for what you wish for because you might just get it.



The same can be said about Obama being used by the Democrats to do their dirty business.



I suppose you can imagine the obstacles Carson's mother faced while she was single handedly raising her children.



Most Presidents complete their two terms in office, Obama's case is not unique.



Good for you. We know how majority of African Americans are less fortunate than you are. The debt level has increased due to the wasteful spending of the Democrats. The same happens here in the UK the Labour party spends while the Tory party mops up the mess.



You owe that to the founding fathers of America and the likes of Martin Luther King Jnr and not to the Democrats who would rather keep African Americans in the slave market as they are now doing in stealth.



Obama is only fulfilling past predictions by pressing the self destruct button.

Lucasbalo:


The only thing I see is that you have allowed the Conservatives in America to con you. I grew up here and I follow the events here. I am an Independent leaning Progressive. I guess we will agree to disagree when it comes to your feeling about Obama.

Lucasbalo:


You don't become America president by happenstance. About Obama winning second term and you said most America presidents wins second term. Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George W and so many before them never won their second term. It's not easy to win a second term if you are not doing right.

Lucasbalo:


When Carson wins the Presidency, I will host you in Chicago if you don't mind and I will provide the Return Tickets. I would love to know if you will take me on my offer.

OLAADEGBU:


We might have to agree to disagree on Obama.



To my knowledge, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush all won second terms in recent times. Below is a list of others who did before them.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/09/politics/btn-second-term-presidents/



You better be ready to provide 1st Class Return Tickets when Ben Carson wins. Deal or no deal?

Lucasbalo:
I will pay for Business class and you will be my guest. There is 99.9% chance Carson won't make it. You have to watch the debate last night on CNBC to know the guy don't have any clue about politics.

Seun:
The Republican party has gone full retard. None of their ideas really make sense.

kinibigdeal:


Don't be too sure. The teak of time is a change of event, though I watched Carson's debate live on CNN. The only problem Carson will have is simply, Americans are not ready for another round of war

Lucasbalo:
Carson problems are much more than that. He's not politically attuned to the happenings in America and he wants to appeal to Right wing crazies who hates people that are not Anglo Saxon Whites, hence the debate on immigration and fear of all muslims.

Lucasbalo:


I will pay for Business class and you will be my guest. There is 99.9% chance Carson won't make it. You have to watch the debate last night on CNBC to know the guy don't have any clue about politics.

kinibigdeal:


Don't be too sure. The teak of time is a change of event, though I watched Carson's debate live on CNN. The only problem Carson will have is simply, Americans are not ready for another round of war

OLAADEGBU:


The reason I believe Ben Carson will win is because Americans and even the UK are sick and tired of the propaganda the politicians are feeding them, they want an outsider who is not politically correct and tells the the truth.

kinibigdeal:


Ben Carson sound inspiring though but I don't think he possess the right leadership attributes, some of is speech are too "Naïve" and can destroy is presidential ambition for example he said in one of is statements that Obamacare is “the worst thing that has happened to US since slavery.” His assertions that Jews were slaughtered in Europe because they didn’t have guns, or that Americans need guns in their home to defend from Islamic militants". Don't you think such ill-statement can dent is political ambition?

OLAADEGBU:


I know those statements are not the politically correct thing to say but that's what people want to hear. To be able to speak the truth without being gagged by the 'pc' police.

kinibigdeal:


Well, I don't know if that is the truth anyway. Though, I heard a lot of controversies regarding the Obamacare scheme. Since am not there, I won't conclude based on what I heard.