CBN Governorship: The Political Calculations
By Yusuph Olaniyonu, 05.24.2009

 
Barring any last minute hitch, it looks increasingly likely that Mr. Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Group Managing Director of First Bank Plc may soon be named by President Umaru Yar’Adua as the next governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
And when that appointment is eventually made, it will mean that all the nation’s top economic managers are from one section of the country-the North.
From the president, who is on top of the economy, to the finance minister, Dr. Mansur Muhtar, to the president’s chief economic adviser, Dr. Tanimu Yakubu, and the minister of national planning, Dr. Shamsudeen Usman, Alhaji Rilwanu Lukman, Minister of Petroleum Resources and Dr, Mohammed Barkindo, Group Managing Director, NNPC,  they are all from the North.
However, this scenario is not new in the country. The same situation obtained under the Obasanjo administration when all national economic managers were from the South. President Olusegun Obasanjo, Chief Phillips Asiodu who was his chief adviser, and was later replaced by Prof Chukwuma Soludo, Chief Joseph Sanusi as CBN governor and Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as finance minister,  Gaius Obaseki and later Funsho Kupolokun as NNPC GMD, all were southerners. Even when Sanusi, a Yoruba man left CBN, he was replaced by another southerner, Soludo.
However, in choosing the next CBN Governor, the issue of reversing the economic fortune of the North which was badly hit under the Obasanjo administration is not the primary consideration, Aso Rock watchers said. The major issue is geo-political balancing in filling vacant top positions in government.
Four positions are likely to be vacant in government in the nearest future. They are the post of Inspector General of Police, which will be vacated by Sir Mike Okiro from the South-south zone in July, the CBN governor whose tenure will expire (except he is re-appointed) on May 29 and the head of service, Ms Amma Pepple, another southerner from the South-south zone who may retire in June when she turns 60.
The fourth position is that of the Executive  Vice-Chairman, National Commu-nications Commission (NCC) presently held by Dr. Ernest Ndukwe from the South-east whose tenure ends in May 2010.
Incidentally, the decision of who becomes the next governor of CBN is the one that the government is forced to confront first because the present tenure of Soludo will expire in six days time.
The government therefore must take a decision which will reverberate in the appointments in the police and other agencies earlier mentioned.
For example, since the president has decided not to extend the tenure of Okiro who is due for retirement in July, the next most senior officer in the police hierarchy is Mr. Ogbonnaya Onovo, a deputy inspector general of police and Soludo’s kinsman.
The calculation therefore is if Soludo gets re-appointed, then the chance of Onovo moving up to the office of IGP will be slim. However, if Sanusi is eventually announced as CBN governor, then the chances of the Yar’Adua government producing the first ever Inspector General from the South-east in 50 years will be enhanced. Onovo is the front runner for the position and is highly favoured if the requirement of federal character does not hinder his chances.
It is believed that faced between giving Soludo a second term and making history as the first administration to make an Igbo man the Inspector-General of Police, where the chance presents itself, the administration may have decided to choose the latter by further enhancing Onovo’s chance in the contest for who heads the police from July.
It is however obvious that the requirement of federal character cannot make both the re-appointment of Soludo and the possible elevation of Onovo to happen the same time.
However, it is not impossible that another fact that may have tilted the case against Soludo’s reappointment is the intense campaign in the North that the last time the zone produced a CBN governor was 16 years ago, when Alhaji Abdulkadir Ahmed was governor. After Ahmed, Dr. Paul Ogwuma, Chief Joseph Sanusi and Soludo had been CBN governor since then, all serving five year-single term. There are indications that Yar’Adua is unlikely to renew Soludo’s tenure, having settled for Sanusi Lamido.
However, if Sanusi Lamido Sanusi’s appointment is eventually sealed, then it will be significant that apart from Ahmed who served for 11 years between 1982 and 1993, mostly under the military, no civilian administration has allowed a CBN governor to serve a second term in office. During the Shagari regime, Ola Vincent who served as CBN governor from 1977 to 1982 had to vacate for Ahmed who completed the period of the civilian era and then left in 1993.
Chief Joseph Sanusi served for five years under the Obasanjo regime from May 29, 1999 to May 29, 2004. Soludo took over the same day and may leave after one term. A tradition is gradually being set. No CBN governor under a civilian government may serve a second term. If Soludo had gotten a second term, it may have been another turn of history. That history is being weighed against the possibility of an Igbo man being made the IG for the first time in 50 years.

I read that news and it made me cringe how some journalists waist their time all in the name of news reports

if he wants to talk about balance of power why not look at the Govenment as a whole and make an assessment and lets see if there are more Southerners in the Yar'adua Government let alone more Igbos?

to isolate the post of IGP and CBN Governor as if they belong to the same sector of Government while ignoring every other sector of Government was very silly.

the fact remains that the President makes these choices and if he decides to fill the whole Government with members of his age grade or all those who attend old boys meeting with him from ABU Zaria . , . . . . that is his choice and I dont think its necessary to question it.

All this talk about Igbo this Igbo that in political appointments make me wonder some people still think Igbos are not as Nigerian as others even close to 40years after the war.

some people might miss out both ways, let us see.

otokx:

some people might miss out both ways,  let us see.

A most likely scenario; but it is Nigeria that loses ultimately, as neither Soludo nor an Igbo IGP represents Ndigbo.

When Nigeria and Nigerians begin and continue to think as NIGERIANS and not TRIBES or SECTIONS, then we WILL make meaningful PROGRESS as a country. Until then, the country and every Nigerian is on a losing streak.

@poster.i don't get it.an igboman is defence minister and ig

Abagworo:

@poster.i don't get it.an igboman is defence minister and ig

what dont you get?

the issue here is that the journalist is just stupid

who gives a shit - al these tribal nonsense - yar adua put anybody u llike that u feel is suitable. One major hinderance to Nigeria is this so called Federal Character nonsense.

Foolish people.

You like federal character only when it is in your favor.
You can't eat your cake and still have it at the same time.

when obj was up there, nobody was counting the number of this tribe that tribe

now every single appointment gets scrutinized like nuclear bomb!

some people are forever insecure!

The only thing Nigerians fight for everyday is how many igbos, Yorubas, hausas, ijaws etc in this and that office and not how many qualified people there. I am sure that there will be quota system in Nigerian hell for those that will head there.

Igbos are not going to pick anything. Both position would not be held by igbos. your TURN is off. move on. Why are some of you so greed. When would other ethnics lead. there are 400 . why must it be igbos. you people are sometime are tribalist. Give your life to Jesus , you poster.

Aloy.Emeka:

The only thing Nigerians fight for everyday is how many igbos, Yorubas, hausas, ijaws etc in this and that office and not how many qualified people there. I am sure that there will be quota system in Nigerian hell for those that will head there.

Thank you for stating it so plainly! Unfortunately, some people with all their education and enlightenment, fail to see that Nigeria and Nigerians are only playing a LOSING game with sectarian, tribalistic and ethnocentric reasoning! Even if all Nigerians do everything else within their power to make progress but with tribalism, all those efforts are dead on arrival. The saying "United we stand, divided we fall" has no respect for race, tribe or creed! Look at our history, our present with tribalism and you need not be a soothsayer or have a crystal ball to predict the future of Nigeria.

huh?

Another stupid thread.

Nigerians masses can't but see the ethnic angle in everything, while the corrupt leaders embezzle together like siblings.
It is always Yoruba this, Hausa that, Igbo then; when you should be more worried about if the person would do a good job and improve the standard of living of Nigerians.
We have nothing more to show for our 50 yrs of tribalism than our poverty stricken lifestyle and yet we seem hell bent on continuing down the same line.

Those playing the victim card , with victim mentality will always be victims.

deor03:

Those playing the victim card , with victim mentality will always be victims.

not sure what you mean but the only victim is the journalist 'Yusuph' who came up with this ridiculous news in the first place