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2016 is going to be a year of monumental civil unrest in this country (Nigeria). The federal and state governments are broke, we are fighting an insurgency with imported bullets and the price of our best product is falling. You all know this so why am I expecting unrest? Well the simple truth is that the problem is not the price of oil but rather the Nigerian mentality. The same mentality that has made past generations protest against subsidy removal is the same mentality that will drive the masses to the street. I call it the entitlement mentality.


Nigerians believe they are entitled to things. They fail to realise that government is all of us. We can only get what we put in. If we all feel that because government is wasteful that we are therefore entitled to fuel subsidy then we all suffer. There are two very unconnected arguments linked by the entitlement mentality; firstly there is the government is wasteful argument, I don’t necessarily agree with it but I see its merits. Then there is the fuel subsidy argument. Both arguments aren’t connected unless you want to subconsciously support your entitlement mentality. Anyway Nigerians feel they are entitled to certain things and in 2016 the government simply wont have the money to provide these things. This will ultimately lead to civil unrest.

Let me explain why I feel $35 a barrel oil will look like a luxury this time next year. Iranian sanctions get removed Q1 to Q2 of 2016 when that happens Iran will witness tremendous investment in it’s oil industry. This will push up their production and as we all know increased supply drives down price. The USA just started exporting so that wont help either. Basically oil is going sub $20 for a long time and that means that Nigerian governments (state and federal) would barely have enough money to pay salaries. 2016 will most likely witness the first government pay cut in the history of this country.

If you have funds in your domiciliary account I strongly urge you to either withdraw that cash and keep in your bible or transfer it abroad. We might just witness the nationalisation of foreign denominated savings. If you cant start a farm I advise you invest in one (I happen to be packaging something so watch out). If you currently hold Nigerian equities I advise you to sell and buy dollars.

No sector will be spared, winter is coming and it is going to be arctic cold. We are going to witness acute shortages of things, the shops will be empty; buy as much imported goods as you need as quickly as possible. When things get bad there will be no dollars to pay for our imports. Those who can still manage to get imported goods in will sell them at exorbitant prices.