735i:


I respect your point of view...but i do not totally agree.
Impairments are rising...True
but the banks are also making a killing from exchange rate differentials...
Q3 results of some Tier 1 banks are not as bad as people make them look.

Look out for FY results of Tier 1 banks... Some of them will shock you positively.
Then i know that some banks have already recorded Y-o-Y growth in revenues for Q1 2016 from activities in Jan and Feb alone....

Mate...theres quite a lot going on that you're not aware of

Forget Revenue. I doubt these banks are impairing properly. Lack of Revenue never brought down a bank, it is always what is hidden in the Balance Sheet that gets them in the end.

musicwriter:
This's what I wrote about 2 years ago providing long term solution.

Bad economy o, currency fluctuations o, poverty o, lack of development o, import based economy o, e.t.c is a symptom of something.

Symptoms of What?. Lack of science know-how.

Until we restructure education in Africa for true education, neither Nigeria nor any other African nation will develop.

Africans please free yourselves from shortsightedness. Always looking for short term solutions!. The current brainwashing model of education we inherited from Britain and France is anti-development. That's the crux of the problem!!.

Africa cannot develop without investment in the right type of education creating mass science education to build our own cars, our own trains, our own ships, our own airplane. Name them!.

Africa cannot develop without investment in grassroots science.

Bad education is a symptom of something else.

Our biggest problem is unfettered free trade. No matter how educated we are, if the cost of imports are cheaper than what we produce locally, then our industries will die out and our educated folks will leave the country. Which is exactly what we are experiencing.

Until we stop being a dumping site if cheap imports, we will never diversify or progress and will always rely on basic commodities.

Waiting for Mr ubah to work his magic

kayfra:


Bad education is a symptom of something else.

Our biggest problem is unfettered free trade. No matter how educated we are, if the cost of imports are cheaper than what we produce locally, then our industries will die out and our educated folks will leave the country. Which is exactly what we are experiencing.

Until we stop being a dumping site if cheap imports, we will never diversify or progress and will always rely on basic commodities.

That's exactly what I'm saying!. Check my updated post.

And yes, you got that one right, wrong type of education is a symptom of a phenomenon called intellectual slavery. I diagnosed that already early last year.

kayfra:


Bad education is a symptom of something else.

Our biggest problem is unfettered free trade. No matter how educated we are, if the cost of imports are cheaper than what we produce locally, then our industries will die out and our educated folks will leave the country. Which is exactly what we are experiencing.

Until we stop being a dumping site if cheap imports, we will never diversify or progress and will always rely on basic commodities.

In as much as you are making some sense, I differ with you on the main cause of the problem.
I said the main cause of the problem because we have TOO many problems currently plaguing Nigeria, but if we are to prioritize, the lack of support Infrastructures and very poor education is the root of most of our problems.
How do you restrict imports when you grossly lack the capacity to produce? There are fundamental issues that the government needs to address before restricting importation.
The urgent need to implement and enforce property and intellectual right laws in Nigeria too! In the pursuit of profit, people will go all out to innovate life changing technologies if they are sure that all the benefits from this invention would accrue to them. This will lead to capacity building and argument government investments and making the country better as a whole.

HiddenShadow:


Keep dreaming of a war that won't breakout
You guys wanted Change and now you guys are complaining after seeing your mistake.
Live with your choice.
No war will breakout.

Obama should help us attain an oil price of $45/barrel as a parting gift ooo else many oil based economies will collapse before 2017. Honestly I wonder why Saudi remains Americas allies when it is glaring the US care less about any other country.

1freshdude:


In as much as you are making some sense, I differ with you on the main cause of the problem.
I said the main cause of the problem because we have TOO many problems currently plaguing Nigeria, but if we are to prioritize, the lack of support Infrastructures and very poor education is the root of most of our problems.
How do you restrict imports when you grossly lack the capacity to produce? There are fundamental issues that the government needs to address before restricting importation.
The urgent need to implement and enforce property and intellectual right laws in Nigeria too! In the pursuit of profit, people will go all out to innovate life changing technologies if they are sure that all the benefits from this invention would accrue to them. This will lead to capacity building and argument government investments and making the country better as a whole.

I agree with you to a large extent but I feel we had a base we could have built from in the 60s. If the government had not gotten carried away with cheap crude and subsided production to an extent where it diversified our economy. Then the country would have been able to prevent brain drain and also encourage intellectual capacity that will drive more innovation in the private sector.

We are on the same page, just attacking different symptoms.

There's only one sure way out of this-
Propaganda.
Sigh...
As much as it pains me, Lai's ministry is the one to put in high gear.
The govt needs to boost everyone's confidence- citizens, businesses, potential fdi fund managers, other nation states.
We need a massive influx of capital investment dollars, but people only invest when they can take a calculated risk.
As we stand now, I wouldn't invest in a country that bungled it's own budget, has no plans for it's people and can't seem to get a handle on security.
But I'm sure lai can sell ice to eskimos so this is his time to shine.
Sigh...

The crisis is imminent, May God help us

kayfra:


Buhahaha. Some people just don't get it.

Then explain it.

I'll love to drop some comments using the Chinese Yuan as an analogy to what's happening right now in Nigeria, maybe we can pick some lessons.

For over a decade China has piled up its foreign reserves from inbound investment and the country’s massive export volumes (Nigeria's export volume is mainly crude, while theirs is very diversified and complex).

In 2015 alone the apex bank in China saw its forex reserves fall by $512.66 billion, only in December 2015 it dropped by $107.9 billion (what did we say is Nigeria's reserve that we're using to hedge the naira at the moment?)

China at the moment is tagged an "Exporter of Capital" meaning capital outflows is just uncontrollable.

Just as we're trying to deal with capital outflows, China is also doing same by tightening capital controls in a bid to slow the departure of funds from its shores, but the market there is constantly finding new ways to aid investors invest offshore.

If I'm not faulting on the figures, the Russians too blew around $90 billion to try and protect the Ruble from falling - some part of this year alone.

The problem here is that:

1. During the decades of surplus, we had some of the worst managers who didn't invest in anything.

2. At the moment, there's just nothing you can lay hands on that has supporting infrastructure, so revamping any sector will entail linking up all the supporting netowrks - you want to revamp agriculture, you need good roads that will connect sellers and buyers, electricity that will aid in the processing of agro-products, etc.

Back to my Chinese analogy, the point I'm trying to draw is that our lean reserve does not stand the chance of supporting the Naira - refer to Russia and China and compare what they have sacrificed to get their currencies at the current levels.

We blew our reserves to run elections, support currupt military juntas, aid corrupt governors, LGAs, etc. Now it's payback time! There's no light at the end of the tunnel - Only God can save us!

NB. CBN Blew $33billion Defending The Naira in 2014. Currently, our foreign reserves is at lows of US$28.7 billion. I really don't know where $28.7billion would take us defending the Naira. We have to decide on defending the Naira until we have no reserves left, or allowing market forces while we sincerely develop our economy.

besttrader:
I'll love to drop some comments using the Chinese Yuan as an analogy to what's happening right now in Nigeria, maybe we can pick some lessons.

For over a decade China has piled up its foreign reserves from inbound investment and the country’s massive export volumes (Nigeria's export volume is mainly crude, while theirs is very diversified and complex).

In 2015 alone the apex bank in China saw its forex reserves fall by $512.66 billion, only in December 2015 it dropped by $107.9 billion (what did we say is Nigeria's reserve that we're using to hedge the naira at the moment?)

China at the moment is tagged an "Exporter of Capital" meaning capital outflows is just uncontrollable.

Just as we're trying to deal with capital outflows, China is also doing same by tightening capital controls in a bid to slow the departure of funds from its shores, but the market there is constantly finding new ways to aid investors invest offshore.

If I'm not faulting on the figures, the Russians too blew around $90 billion to try and protect the Ruble from falling - some part of this year alone.

The problem here is that:

1. During the decades of surplus, we had some of the worst managers who didn't invest in anything.

2. At the moment, there's just nothing you can lay hands on that has supporting infrastructure, so revamping any sector will entail linking up all the supporting netowrks - you want to revamp agriculture, you need good roads that will connect sellers and buyers, electricity that will aid in the processing of agro-products, etc.

Back to my Chinese analogy, the point I'm trying to draw is that our lean reserve does not stand the chance of supporting the Naira - refer to Russia and China and compare what they have sacrificed to get their currencies at the current levels.

We blew our reserves to run elections, support currupt military juntas, aid corrupt governors, LGAs, etc. Now it's payback time! There's no light at the end of the tunnel - Only God can save us!

NB. CBN Blew $33billion Defending The Naira in 2014. Currently, our foreign reserves is at lows of US$28.7 billion. I really don't know where $28.7billion would take us defending the Naira. We have to decide on defending the Naira until we have no reserves left, or allowing market forces while we sincerely develop our economy.

From what I read, the capital flight in China is related to companies hurrying up to pay liabilities since USA is jacking up interest rates which will make their dollar debts more expensive. So it may not be a bad thing on the long run.

Very true Kayfra, but the overall move if not checked might be bad for their economy. Sometime last year authorities in China did also put some clauses in foreign remittances on 3 banks or so (ours was restriction on all banks).

Overall, my worries are that we're ill prepared for this. Looking at those in power, it makes the situation more intense. I'm not too sure what our fiscal policies are. My point is comparing our reserve at the current levels, while looking at what the Chinese and Russians have spent on defending their currencies, our reserves stands no chance at all!

All in all, we'll be closely monitoring things as they unfold - I hope for the best and after the storm calms, we believe we should have learnt a lesson or two.

kayfra:


From what I read, the capital flight in China is related to companies hurrying up to pay liabilities since USA is jacking up interest rates which will make their dollar debts more expensive. So it may not be a bad thing on the long run.

cckris:
Let the incompetent Govt resign before it turns to UPRISING. They said they would do better, but they have no ideas of to even start.
Hunger can lead to irrationalities.

Dude, this is much bigger than APC vs. PDP so stop being petty. Its not time for partisanship for goodness sakes, it's about right vs. wrong.

Nigeria is paying for the bad decisions it has made in the past and it seems like the chickens are coming home to roost. It sounds so sad.

asha80:
hope it is not going to lead to massive sack in the banking sector

What kind of question is that? Who wants to pay workers when they are about to go bankrupt.

kayfra:


If you read the news you would know that the world powers are already preparing for the disintegration of Saudi Arabia and the war scenario is not farfetched with ISIS and Syria. If all you know is Igbo vs. Hausa vs. Yoruba diatribe then gtfo.

Hahhaha, Saudi Arabia disintegrate? Keep wishing. You think the House of Saud is just going to let that happen or you think the US would just stand by and let it's major ally in the middle East disintegrate? You think say this one na Biafra vs. Nigeria.

HiddenShadow:


Keep dreaming of a war that won't breakout
You guys wanted Change and now you guys are complaining after seeing your mistake.
Live with your choice.
No war will breakout.

Oh so you think the previous administration would have been able to handle this oil glut when it consistently failed to deal with other crisis?

asha80:
I am not too worried about buhari..i am more worried about the state governors who cannot think beyond allocation from abuja

Gbam!

HiddenShadow:


Intelligence report made known to Jonathan revealed the plan by Western powers to back a Northern rebellion against Jonathan like the case of Gbagbo and Ivory Coast
Jonathan seeing that Nigeria has no technological skill to produce her weapons needed to defend herself , had to protect his people (SS/SE) by leaving in peace all thanks to the betrayals down South.

Hahahahha, where do you get this your conspiracy theories self? Please show me the so called intelligence reports. Abi na you write am. Kai! You naija people and your conspiracy theories self.

chubhiee:
If Nigerians truly understand what's about to hit them, they either escape from that country or take to the streets as revolutionaries.

The clock ticks.

correct

chubhiee:

What a man of peace who rightly said that his quest for power is not worth the blood of Nigerians. now, compare with a war time general that was ready for dogs and baboons to do death match.

The number of deaths,job loss, and economic somersault under Buhari is unprecedented in the entire history of this nation.

The question is how long can Nigerians endure before they revolt like a goat that has been pushed to the wall?

Dude, what are you talking about? Do you even know anything about economics works? Nigerias problems are bigger than Buhari. Our problems come from the fact that we based our entire economy on a very volatile product like oil and now that the price has gone crashing we are suffering from the after effects. It has nothing to do with Buhari but the previous administrations inability to plan ahead.

paschu:
[s][/s]

I was carefully reading your stance until I got to the last line ...

That your last comment just messed up your arguement and suggests that you don't know what you are saying, otherwise you who claim to be in the know (and economically smarter than a known billionare) ought to be aware that this government plans to borrow like never before.

The fact that someone is a billionaire does not mean he his educated on economy policy.

Eluwilussit:


Spot on, son. Na to win election with underaged voters? Time don reach for action. Jagaban don hide. They all were running their mouths on how to feed schoolchildren and pay 25m poor Nigerians #5k a month, but now even people that have jobs, are losing them.

We called Jona clueless. We were right. Now what do we call PMB & APC led FG? We can't fix Nigeria until we go back to true federalism, regionalism or confederalism. There are way too many states and LGAs presently.

your last paragraph is golden

247Dior:
is he the finance minister?

Abi o. Isn't that the job of the finance minister?

LRNZH:


Before you make US and Nigeria comparisons, go and school yourself on the nature of the two economies.
Get some knowledge brother and don't make this a partisan thread.

But OP, while I agree with you that if the banks are truly owed in USD and a devaluation will worsen the debts, I think a thread like this can lead to panic withdrawals by depositors.

Anyway, Baba has said no devaluation so anybody stockpiling dollars in readiness to make a killing from devaluation is wasting his/her time.

Oil price slump can lead to debt defaults but that is it. Forget about the impact of devaluation. It is not happening.

Plssss what's the advantage of devaluation to those who are stockpiling dollars. I really want to learn more because I'm not too good in this economics aspect.Thanks Bro awaiting your reply

kayfra:


No easy way out. Let's speak the truth. We effed up majorly, and this is beyond political ideology or ethnic identity.

Short term solution is to sell some of our oil assets to improve our reserves but the value is in the tank right now and which investor will like to deal with the situation in the Niger Delta with armed youths?

Another way for the government is by debt funding. Float a bond and let Nigerians in diaspora invest. How will they convince most people with what we know? I think this is already in motion.

Hand of God solution which we can't control is for war to break out in the middle east and oilgoes back up.

The rest are very long term but we have a crisis to deal with.

War can never be d solution 2 any impending economic crises. Seems u don't know what war means, all cos we want 2 better our economy we'll now be wishing a whole war in anoda country. God 4bid. We're praying 4 peace, cos dats where our prosperity will thrive. Who told u God cannot fa4 us such dat some countries can give us money 2 assist us. A loan dat is interest free. Nigeria will get out of this mess.

cckris:

Let them do as Obama did for America in 2008.

Obama did nothing for America.

dahmie2013:


War can never be d solution 2 any impending economic crises. Seems u don't know what war means, all cos we want 2 better our economy we'll now be wishing a whole war in anoda country. God 4bid. We're praying 4 peace, cos dats where our prosperity will thrive. Who told u God cannot fa4 us such dat some countries can give us money 2 assist us. A loan dat is interest free. Nigeria will get out of this mess.

Wishing war to another country is not ideal really , but your way of thinking is the reason we are where we are as a nation are today, we pray for peace everyday , forcing peace to coexist with injustice. It's a shame really.

blueseacats:
Wishing war to another country is not ideal really , but your way of thinking is the reason we are where we are as a nation are today, we pray for peace everyday , forcing peace to coexist with injustice. It's a shame really.

So we shud pray 4 war? I think its still cos of d same prayers dat we have peace in major places in Nigeria. Just imagine if what's happening in d North, happened in Lagos.

Well I dnt kw much abt this issue, I kw nigeria is in a deep mess nw bt it ll nt go beyound this b/c the church is praying, I am praying n I kw others also r praying. I dnt care who believes wt me or nt or who gets to mock @my comment------nigeria ll nt fail as a country, the hand of God is resting upon this country. Jux watch n see wat God ll do.