Lahti VS Inter Turku FC Lahti to win

Lahti look a decent bet to me today for a number of reason. firstly, they are always apretty decent side here at kisapuisto and so far their only loss at home this season has been to league leaders HJK. They whitewashed lasy years' Champions SJK in a 3-0 win here back in May and are continuing a strong home form which guided them 5th pace in the league last year.

As for Inter Turku FC, it's been a tough start to the season and the looks to only be getting worse. Having won 2 and drawn 1 of their opening 3 league games, things were looking up for Jami Wallenius' side, but since then they have literally plummeted through the league table. In league and cup they have won just 1 of their last 9 games and two of those losses came against bottom side PK-35 Vantaa. Since a won over 11th placed on the HIFK on the 2nd day of the season, inter turku have gone onto lose 3 0f their last 4 away games. Losses against bottom side PK-35 (3-1) in their last away game and against newly promoted PS Kemi(0-2)on home soil last weekend just prove what a dire situation they are in.
Not only that inter turku side struggle for any form to speak of, they are also suffering with a growing list of absentees:

Moisander (GK 6 apps/0)- first choice goalkeeper
pape sow (M 5 apps/0)
Tamboura (DF 2 apps/0)
Njoku (F 5 apps/1)
Lehtonen (DF 4apps/0)

phemmyhelu:
Lahti VS Inter Turku FC Lahti to win

Lahti look a decent bet to me today for a number of reason. firstly, they are always apretty decent side here at kisapuisto and so far their only loss at home this season has been to league leaders HJK. They whitewashed lasy years' Champions SJK in a 3-0 win here back in May and are continuing a strong home form which guided them 5th pace in the league last year.

As for Inter Turku FC, it's been a tough start to the season and the looks to only be getting worse. Having won 2 and drawn 1 of their opening 3 league games, things were looking up for Jami Wallenius' side, but since then they have literally plummeted through the league table. In league and cup they have won just 1 of their last 9 games and two of those losses came against bottom side PK-35 Vantaa. Since a won over 11th placed on the HIFK on the 2nd day of the season, inter turku have gone onto lose 3 0f their last 4 away games. Losses against bottom side PK-35 (3-1) in their last away game and against newly promoted PS Kemi(0-2)on home soil last weekend just prove what a dire situation they are in.
Not only that inter turku side struggle for any form to speak of, they are also suffering with a growing list of absentees:

Moisander (GK 6 apps/0)- first choice goalkeeper
pape sow (M 5 apps/0)
Tamboura (DF 2 apps/0)
Njoku (F 5 apps/1)
Lehtonen (DF 4apps/0)

WON

BRAZIL Série B
Goias vs Oeste Oeste or Draw (Double Chance)

My selection today is for Oeste collect at least a point from their game against Goais and there are a number of reasons for this bet, the main being that Goais are in absolute turmoil. The situation at the club is delicate to say the least.

Goais have collected just 1 win from their opening 7 games of the season and sit 4th from bottom of the league. They're without a win in 6 and have lost their last 3 on the bounce, a run which has seen them part company with coach Enderson Moreira this week. Leo Conde will be the new manager it's been confirmed, but he won't be ready for this game against Oeste, so instead interim coach Danny Sergio will take charge for this game.

But their shocking run of form hasn't only led to their manager being sacked, on thursday their training ground was stormed by angry Fans. Around 30 fans headed to the training center of serrinha singing "play for love or terror". It's hardly ideal preparation for a game to be honest!

The main issue for Goais this year has been that since their relegation from serie A last year, a number of players have left the club and those experienced players that stayed have been injured. the likes of Juninho,Daniel Carvalho and Eduardo are yet to really feature this team and as a result of that there is just no backbone to the squad.

As for the visitors, well Oeste come into this game after back-to-back wins over Tupi and Criciuma, the latter of whom beat Goais 3-1 only a few weeks ago. They're currently 9th in the league and have lost only once on their travels so far this season. There are no significant injuries to speak of and it's a side who are in good form, especially defensively, and their style of "tiki taka" football should cause Goais a few problems this evening.

overall this looks like a very solid bet to me and i really don't see how a demoralized and demolished Goais outfit get anything from this game. Under their new coach things may well change, but with Danny Sergio making 3 changes tonight to aside which is already struggling to settle into form or rhythm, i'm backing Oeste to leave with at least a point.

just following your tips now bro.

phemmyhelu:
BRAZIL Série B
Goias vs Oeste Oeste or Draw (Double Chance)

My selection today is for Oeste collect at least a point from their game against Goais and there are a number of reasons for this bet, the main being that Goais are in absolute turmoil. The situation at the club is delicate to say the least.

Goais have collected just 1 win from their opening 7 games of the season and sit 4th from bottom of the league. They're without a win in 6 and have lost their last 3 on the bounce, a run which has seen them part company with coach Enderson Moreira this week. Leo Conde will be the new manager it's been confirmed, but he won't be ready for this game against Oeste, so instead interim coach Danny Sergio will take charge for this game.

But their shocking run of form hasn't only led to their manager being sacked, on thursday their training ground was stormed by angry Fans. Around 30 fans headed to the training center of serrinha singing "play for love or terror". It's hardly ideal preparation for a game to be honest!

The main issue for Goais this year has been that since their relegation from serie A last year, a number of players have left the club and those experienced players that stayed have been injured. the likes of Juninho,Daniel Carvalho and Eduardo are yet to really feature this team and as a result of that there is just no backbone to the squad.

As for the visitors, well Oeste come into this game after back-to-back wins over Tupi and Criciuma, the latter of whom beat Goais 3-1 only a few weeks ago. They're currently 9th in the league and have lost only once on their travels so far this season. There are no significant injuries to speak of and it's a side who are in good form, especially defensively, and their style of "tiki taka" football should cause Goais a few problems this evening.

overall this looks like a very solid bet to me and i really don't see how a demoralized and demolished Goais outfit get anything from this game. Under their new coach things may well change, but with Danny Sergio making 3 changes tonight to aside which is already struggling to settle into form or rhythm, i'm backing Oeste to leave with at least a point.

Won

Belgium vs Italy - Both Teams to Score

Many will probably fancy Belgium to sneak this,but i have to disagree to be honest. Belgium have hardly convinced me in their pre-tournament preparation games with no kompany or Vermaelen at the back today, their defence worries me. Wilmots likely to start with a centre back combination of vertonghen and Denayer with Jordan Lukaku filling in at left back.

Now throughout their friendlies before heading to France, Belgium have failed to keep a single clean sheet against Portugal, Switzerland, Finland and Norway, all sides that in my opinion are a lesser quality than Italy. They literally just scraped a 1-1 draw against Finland and were also 1-2 down against Norway in Brussels before staging late comeback and sealing 3-2 win. Yes, these were friendlies and tournament football is an entirely different prospect but with Wilmots looking likely to lineup with 4-3-3 and a bit of a makeshift defence, I'm leaning towards a few goals.

As for Italy, well their last 2 games looked convincing with wins to nil over Scotland and Finland, but let's be honest, you'd expect them to keep clean sheets against sides of that caliber. However, in their two friendlies back in march against the likes of Spain and Germany, they failed to keep clean sheet in either game. Conte is likely to start with 5 in midfield to try and crowd out the Belgian side and although their legendary back 3 will be here with Buffon in behind, this side can concede goals and i'm confident that will happen today.

The two sides faced off in a friendly for their first meeting in 7 years back in November, a game in which Belgium won 3-1 on home soil in Brussels. I would not expect a similar rout today in Lyon but i do expect both teams to find the net.

phemmyhelu:
Belgium vs Italy - Both Teams to Score

Many will probably fancy Belgium to sneak this,but i have to disagree to be honest. Belgium have hardly convinced me in their pre-tournament preparation games with no kompany or Vermaelen at the back today, their defence worries me. Wilmots likely to start with a centre back combination of vertonghen and Denayer with Jordan Lukaku filling in at left back.

Now throughout their friendlies before heading to France, Belgium have failed to keep a single clean sheet against Portugal, Switzerland, Finland and Norway, all sides that in my opinion are a lesser quality than Italy. They literally just scraped a 1-1 draw against Finland and were also 1-2 down against Norway in Brussels before staging late comeback and sealing 3-2 win. Yes, these were friendlies and tournament football is an entirely different prospect but with Wilmots looking likely to lineup with 4-3-3 and a bit of a makeshift defence, I'm leaning towards a few goals.

As for Italy, well their last 2 games looked convincing with wins to nil over Scotland and Finland, but let's be honest, you'd expect them to keep clean sheets against sides of that caliber. However, in their two friendlies back in march against the likes of Spain and Germany, they failed to keep clean sheet in either game. Conte is likely to start with 5 in midfield to try and crowd out the Belgian side and although their legendary back 3 will be here with Buffon in behind, this side can concede goals and i'm confident that will happen today.

The two sides faced off in a friendly for their first meeting in 7 years back in November, a game in which Belgium won 3-1 on home soil in Brussels. I would not expect a similar rout today in Lyon but i do expect both teams to find the net.

Lost

CRB vs Bragantino Bragantino +0.5 Asian Handicap

Firstly let me explain the bet. This is a +0.5 Asian handicap which is exactly as the double chance market. So we just need Bragantino to win or draw this game for a full return. The reason i'm backing the Asian Handicap is because it's priced at 1.69 compared to 1.65 for the double chance and they are exactly the same bet.

CRB have arguably had the better start to the season of the two sides but in last round they were absolutely demolished 3-0 by Bahia and following two red cards in that game, coach Mazola junior is somewhat struggling for players. Striker Neto Baiano and left back Elton Lira will both miss today's game following their red card of the season. Gerson Magrao, a key midfielder for CRB, will also miss the game after he picked up an injury after just 8 minutes against Bahia and was forced off. This all means that Mozola is likely to hand debuts to a number of players to fill the gaps.

Bragantino may have had a rough start to the season with losses on the bounce, but Toninho Ceclilo seems to have his players in tune now with only 1 loss in their last 5 game which came against 2nd place side Atletico GO. The side who narrowly missed out on the playoffs last season seem to finally be getting their shit together and have no new injury concerns ahead of tonight's game at the Estadio Rei pele.

The two have met on 3 occasions here at the home of CRB with Bragantino taking maximum points on two of those visits, and given the current injury and suspension problems facing Mazola junior's side tonight, i'm going to take Bragantino to get something out of this game.

phemmyhelu:
CRB vs Bragantino Bragantino +0.5 Asian Handicap

Firstly let me explain the bet. This is a +0.5 Asian handicap which is exactly as the double chance market. So we just need Bragantino to win or draw this game for a full return. The reason i'm backing the Asian Handicap is because it's priced at 1.69 compared to 1.65 for the double chance and they are exactly the same bet.

CRB have arguably had the better start to the season of the two sides but in last round they were absolutely demolished 3-0 by Bahia and following two red cards in that game, coach Mazola junior is somewhat struggling for players. Striker Neto Baiano and left back Elton Lira will both miss today's game following their red card of the season. Gerson Magrao, a key midfielder for CRB, will also miss the game after he picked up an injury after just 8 minutes against Bahia and was forced off. This all means that Mozola is likely to hand debuts to a number of players to fill the gaps.

Bragantino may have had a rough start to the season with losses on the bounce, but Toninho Ceclilo seems to have his players in tune now with only 1 loss in their last 5 game which came against 2nd place side Atletico GO. The side who narrowly missed out on the playoffs last season seem to finally be getting their shit together and have no new injury concerns ahead of tonight's game at the Estadio Rei pele.

The two have met on 3 occasions here at the home of CRB with Bragantino taking maximum points on two of those visits, and given the current injury and suspension problems facing Mazola junior's side tonight, i'm going to take Bragantino to get something out of this game.

Lost

France vs Albania Most cards Albania or Albania -1.5 asian card handicap @ 2.025

In qualifying Albania played 8 games and received 21 cards for a 2.625 average, but also one of the games was abandoned which was the dirtiest one against Serbia due to crowd trouble so really this is more like 21 cards in 7 and a bit games so it is slightly misleading and the total would be higher should they have played the full 90 that night.

They picked up at least 2 cards in 6 of their 7 games and I personally feel there is every chance France could pick up no cards.

I see Albania not having much of the ball and trying to keep tight here and play hard against France and with the tricky players throughout the French team over 90 minutes I think Albania will possibly get physical especially in the later stages. The only potential risk here is if France were to get a huge lead early and the game fizzled out.

William Collum from Scotland is the referee and he does enjoy showing a card as well. His last 8 competitive internationals refereed have seen him hand out the following totals:

3, 6, 2, 4, 12, 5, 4 and 5 for a 5.25 average.

France and Albania met last year in a friendly and Albania actually picked up 3 yellows to France's zero despite this game just being a friendly.

The first game of Euro 2016 saw France pick up 1 booking to Romania's 3 so this bet would have won then and also Albania showed their physicality against Switzerland picking up a huge 6 cards including a red to Switzerland's two yellows to again land this pick.

If France turn up and the tricky players get the better of Albania this should land if things go our way.

phemmyhelu:
France vs Albania Most cards Albania or Albania -1.5 asian card handicap @ 2.025

In qualifying Albania played 8 games and received 21 cards for a 2.625 average, but also one of the games was abandoned which was the dirtiest one against Serbia due to crowd trouble so really this is more like 21 cards in 7 and a bit games so it is slightly misleading and the total would be higher should they have played the full 90 that night.

They picked up at least 2 cards in 6 of their 7 games and I personally feel there is every chance France could pick up no cards.

I see Albania not having much of the ball and trying to keep tight here and play hard against France and with the tricky players throughout the French team over 90 minutes I think Albania will possibly get physical especially in the later stages. The only potential risk here is if France were to get a huge lead early and the game fizzled out.

William Collum from Scotland is the referee and he does enjoy showing a card as well. His last 8 competitive internationals refereed have seen him hand out the following totals:

3, 6, 2, 4, 12, 5, 4 and 5 for a 5.25 average.

France and Albania met last year in a friendly and Albania actually picked up 3 yellows to France's zero despite this game just being a friendly.

The first game of Euro 2016 saw France pick up 1 booking to Romania's 3 so this bet would have won then and also Albania showed their physicality against Switzerland picking up a huge 6 cards including a red to Switzerland's two yellows to again land this pick.

If France turn up and the tricky players get the better of Albania this should land if things go our way.

Won

phemmyhelu:
France vs Albania Most cards Albania or Albania -1.5 asian card handicap @ 2.025

In qualifying Albania played 8 games and received 21 cards for a 2.625 average, but also one of the games was abandoned which was the dirtiest one against Serbia due to crowd trouble so really this is more like 21 cards in 7 and a bit games so it is slightly misleading and the total would be higher should they have played the full 90 that night.

They picked up at least 2 cards in 6 of their 7 games and I personally feel there is every chance France could pick up no cards.

I see Albania not having much of the ball and trying to keep tight here and play hard against France and with the tricky players throughout the French team over 90 minutes I think Albania will possibly get physical especially in the later stages. The only potential risk here is if France were to get a huge lead early and the game fizzled out.

William Collum from Scotland is the referee and he does enjoy showing a card as well. His last 8 competitive internationals refereed have seen him hand out the following totals:

3, 6, 2, 4, 12, 5, 4 and 5 for a 5.25 average.

France and Albania met last year in a friendly and Albania actually picked up 3 yellows to France's zero despite this game just being a friendly.

The first game of Euro 2016 saw France pick up 1 booking to Romania's 3 so this bet would have won then and also Albania showed their physicality against Switzerland picking up a huge 6 cards including a red to Switzerland's two yellows to again land this pick.

If France turn up and the tricky players get the better of Albania this should land if things go our way.

Won

GERMANY V POLAND OVER 3.5 CARDS

I do not need to go into a history lesson for this but I am sure everybody understands the rivalry between Germany and Poland.

I think to get over 3.5 cards in this is a steal and both teams will want the win to have the top spot in their hands. It should be a very competitive game with a good atmosphere.

I do not think it will be overly dirty as both are good footballing sides but I think we can get 4.

Since 2006 the sides have met on 4 occasions. The cards totals have been the following in each meeting:

8 (1 red), 3, 5 and 4. Therefore 5 cards per game on average with 75% going over 3.5 cards which definitely supports getting behind this.

The referee is Dutchman Bjorn Kuipers who is not a huge cards giver but a steady enough one. If this was a stricter referee this game would be a 4.5 handicap definitely.

Bjorn Kuipers has handed out a total of 30 cards in his last 7 internationals refereed for a 4.28 average so again, over the 3.5 line and a good reason to back the bet!

phemmyhelu:
GERMANY V POLAND OVER 3.5 CARDS

I do not need to go into a history lesson for this but I am sure everybody understands the rivalry between Germany and Poland.

I think to get over 3.5 cards in this is a steal and both teams will want the win to have the top spot in their hands. It should be a very competitive game with a good atmosphere.

I do not think it will be overly dirty as both are good footballing sides but I think we can get 4.

Since 2006 the sides have met on 4 occasions. The cards totals have been the following in each meeting:

8 (1 red), 3, 5 and 4. Therefore 5 cards per game on average with 75% going over 3.5 cards which definitely supports getting behind this.

The referee is Dutchman Bjorn Kuipers who is not a huge cards giver but a steady enough one. If this was a stricter referee this game would be a 4.5 handicap definitely.

Bjorn Kuipers has handed out a total of 30 cards in his last 7 internationals refereed for a 4.28 average so again, over the 3.5 line and a good reason to back the bet!

Won

Good job bro, following

Czech Republic vs Croatia Croatia to Win

This is a match between Czech Republic and Croatia in group D of this Euro. Croatia have the two midfield architictects rakitic and modric and the experienced Srna who s father passed away during the first match. I think that such an event will bring the team closer together and that Croatia should be able to win here rather easily today. Croatia had a very good start at the Euro 2016, they have won against Turkey and now they are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches played in all competitions. They have great players in the lineup, Modric, Rakitic, and Mandzukic are all expected to start once again. They completely neutralized Turk's with high pressing and with direct passing made a couple of clean situation to score. This will be tight match, Czech Republic will not be able to focus only on defence this time as they need points as well so Croatia should have many chances in offense and I think Croatia has more quality than Czech's and they will win.

phemmyhelu:
Czech Republic vs Croatia Croatia to Win

This is a match between Czech Republic and Croatia in group D of this Euro. Croatia have the two midfield architictects rakitic and modric and the experienced Srna who s father passed away during the first match. I think that such an event will bring the team closer together and that Croatia should be able to win here rather easily today. Croatia had a very good start at the Euro 2016, they have won against Turkey and now they are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches played in all competitions. They have great players in the lineup, Modric, Rakitic, and Mandzukic are all expected to start once again. They completely neutralized Turk's with high pressing and with direct passing made a couple of clean situation to score. This will be tight match, Czech Republic will not be able to focus only on defence this time as they need points as well so Croatia should have many chances in offense and I think Croatia has more quality than Czech's and they will win.

Lost

JJK Jyvaskyla vs KTP Both Teams to Score FINLAND: Ykkonen 11:30
i will post research later no time game starting soon

phemmyhelu:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs KTP Both Teams to Score FINLAND: Ykkonen 11:30
i will post research later no time game starting soon

Lost

OVER 2.5 GOALS ENGLAND V SLOVAKIA

Slovakia know that a point will be enough to see them through which is why we are getting a good price on goals here as they may look to frustrate England and sit deep. I personally do not feel they are good enough to do this though and goals will end up happening.

8 out of Slovakia's last 10 international games have seen over 2.5 goals with 6 of those 8 seeing over 3.5 goals. Both group games so far have had both to score and over 2.5 goal outcomes in Slovakia's games and could well have had more goals in either of those games. They also had both teams scoring in ALL 8 of the above 10 games mentioned so clearly they are showing a consistency for being able to score goals with the likes of Weiss and Hamsik but they just cannot keep them out.

8 of England's last 14 games have seen over 2.5 goals land but 13 of the 14 have had at least 2 goals so the ones that have lost have been games where there have been exactly 2 goals in them.

Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 7 England games, so again just like the Slovakians they seem to be showing consistency for goals at both end of the pitch. I have to admit that England defence is not filling me with confidence and again like Slovakia, both games have seen goals in the group stages for England with both sides scoring in each game.

England have scored 2+ goals in 10/14 games and Slovakia have in 7/10 so again the thinking behind the goals is backed up here.

England have won all 3 previous meetings since 2002 between the nations, all with over 2.5 goals landing.

phemmyhelu:
OVER 2.5 GOALS ENGLAND V SLOVAKIA

Slovakia know that a point will be enough to see them through which is why we are getting a good price on goals here as they may look to frustrate England and sit deep. I personally do not feel they are good enough to do this though and goals will end up happening.

8 out of Slovakia's last 10 international games have seen over 2.5 goals with 6 of those 8 seeing over 3.5 goals. Both group games so far have had both to score and over 2.5 goal outcomes in Slovakia's games and could well have had more goals in either of those games. They also had both teams scoring in ALL 8 of the above 10 games mentioned so clearly they are showing a consistency for being able to score goals with the likes of Weiss and Hamsik but they just cannot keep them out.

8 of England's last 14 games have seen over 2.5 goals land but 13 of the 14 have had at least 2 goals so the ones that have lost have been games where there have been exactly 2 goals in them.

Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 7 England games, so again just like the Slovakians they seem to be showing consistency for goals at both end of the pitch. I have to admit that England defence is not filling me with confidence and again like Slovakia, both games have seen goals in the group stages for England with both sides scoring in each game.

England have scored 2+ goals in 10/14 games and Slovakia have in 7/10 so again the thinking behind the goals is backed up here.

England have won all 3 previous meetings since 2002 between the nations, all with over 2.5 goals landing.

Lost

GERMANY WIN TO NIL V NORTHERN IRELAND

Germany are priced at around 1.44 to get a clean sheet but can be got on at 1.75 to win and keep a clean sheet. I fully expect them to win the game but they are around 2/7 to do so, therefore looking for some extra value I think this is where we cash in.

Northern Ireland are going to be almost guaranteed qualification if they don't get a hammering here and will look to play tight and even if they go 1-0 down I cannot see them putting up a huge fight as their goal difference will be superior to most if they do not lose by 3 or 4 etc. I personally also do not feel they have enough quality to really trouble the Germans too much.

Germany have kept back to back clean sheets against Ukraine and Poland and now have kept 3 clean sheets in a row. Germany will easily be happy coming away with a 1 or 2-0 win from this game and I can see it finishing something like that.

Northern Ireland did upset the odds against Ukraine and get the 2-0 win but in the match against Poland they were dominated and could barely get out of their own half in the game. With Germany having even more quality than Poland I can see a repeat in tactics and a repeat outcome here.

phemmyhelu:
GERMANY WIN TO NIL V NORTHERN IRELAND

Germany are priced at around 1.44 to get a clean sheet but can be got on at 1.75 to win and keep a clean sheet. I fully expect them to win the game but they are around 2/7 to do so, therefore looking for some extra value I think this is where we cash in.

Northern Ireland are going to be almost guaranteed qualification if they don't get a hammering here and will look to play tight and even if they go 1-0 down I cannot see them putting up a huge fight as their goal difference will be superior to most if they do not lose by 3 or 4 etc. I personally also do not feel they have enough quality to really trouble the Germans too much.

Germany have kept back to back clean sheets against Ukraine and Poland and now have kept 3 clean sheets in a row. Germany will easily be happy coming away with a 1 or 2-0 win from this game and I can see it finishing something like that.

Northern Ireland did upset the odds against Ukraine and get the 2-0 win but in the match against Poland they were dominated and could barely get out of their own half in the game. With Germany having even more quality than Poland I can see a repeat in tactics and a repeat outcome here.

Won

IFK TIMRA V FRISKA VILJOR OVER 3.5 GOALS

This is in the lower leagues of "Sweden - Division 2 Norrland

Timra are averaging 4.1 goals in their 6 games so far with Friska seeing 3.5 on average so to get odds against here looks a good shout in my opinion and slight value for us.

Combined between the pair exactly 12 of their 24 games have seen over 3.5 goals land and again showing this to be a value bet at odds against.

What I like even more here is the outcomes when they are in this home and away format. Timra at home have seen an average of 4.2 goals in 6 games with Friska away seeing bang on 4 as an average. With the combined goals in each teams home and away games (50) it gives an average of 4.16 goals.

Timra have scored 12 and conceded 13 in the 6 home games so they are scoring and conceding 2+ goals, Friska have scored 6 in 6 away so could definitely score a goal or 2 against a leaky defence and also they have conceded 19 goals! A huge 3+ goals conceded on average.

Timra have seen 5 of their 6 home games go over 3.5 goals at home this season with Friska going over in 4/6 and therefore combined that gives a success rate of 9/12 games. This equates to 75% yet you are getting a 5/4 best price.

The sides have met 3 times since 2007 with each game having at least 4 goals with an average of 4.6 over the 3.

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YESTERDAY TIPS

CHILE V COLOMBIA OVER 5.5 ASIAN CARDS AT 1.900

This is exactly the same as over 5.5 normal cards but at a slightly better price on the asian line so we need 6 to win.

This is a high cards line but this has the potential to end up in double figures on it's day. The game firstly is a semi final to go on and meet Argentina in the final so it is going to be a passionate and hotly contested game where tensions could rise and boil over depending on how the game goes.

The last 4 competitive meetings between Chile and Columbia have seen the following cards totals:

5, 12 (1 red), 12 (1 red) and 9 (1 red).

An average of 9.5 cards per game! Plus 3 reds in those 4. It sets it up to be a cracker cards wise potentially.

Of course it may go wrong and it ends up being an under 5.5 win but everything suggests overs.

The referee is Joel Aguilar and he has refereed one game so far in the tournament and it was in Argentina 5-0 Panama. In that game he handed out a cards total of 10 including 1 red. His last 3 internationals refereed have seen him show 10, 8 and 6 cards for an average of 8 per game and therefore again siding with the cards going over 5.5 in total.

PORTUGAL V HUNGARY OVER 4 ASIAN CARDS

This game has a lot riding on it and as most of you who have been on the emails know, we cashed in on the cards in Hungary v Iceland at the weekend when there were 6 shown and we got over 3.5!

If there is 4 shown here we get our money back, and I fully expect 4 at least. A lot is riding on this game with all kinds of swings and permutations in the balance in this group. Portugal will have the onus on them to attack and Hungary will likely defend deep and try and get a point from this game which should guarantee them top spot unbelievably.

This game could be one of those where late on depending on how it has gone one side or the other will be clinging on to the points and could do desperation and tactical fouls and cards could come late.

As discussed in the weekend's email, Hungary averaged over 3 cards per game themselves in qualifying and they got 3 against Iceland in that game. This could very much be the same or maybe more in which case we see 4 cards at least. The added bonus is that Portugal received 20 yellow cards and 1 red in just 8 qualifying games in a very poor standard group which they won 7 of. This gave them a cards average of 2.75 per game as well! Pepe etc always have a tendency to be able to lose their heads at any second.

With both sides high card receives and Portugal having Ronaldo and Nani's trickery and a lot riding on this game I definitely fancy the cards. Martin Atkinson is the referee and he is certainly someone who will hand cards out when necessary.

Hungary's two games so far have seen 4 cards including a red in the first and then 6 yellows in the second game.

Portugal have seen a 0-2 cards total against Iceland and then 6 yellows shown, 4-2 to Austria in their second game therefore 75% of the combined games have seen 4+ cards shown.

PORTUGAL -3.5 ASIAN CORNERS

This pick means we need Portugal to get 4 more corners than Hungary so a 2-6 corner count or 1-5 etc.

I am picking this as I said in the above reasoning that I think Hungary will 100% sit deep here and contain Portugal. As we saw in the first two games Portugal have had tons of possession/chances/shots but have only scored the 1 goal. They have looked threatening and dominant majorly and this should continue into this game which will see them rack up corners and Hungary barely get down the other end to get many themselves.

Ronaldo and Nani and co love a shot as well and the likes of Kiraly and co are poor quality and will be likely to concede corners to better opposition.

The first two games for Portugal saw corners counts in their favour of 11-2 and 9-0! 20 corners in 2 games. If they get to 7-8 here I think this bet should win as at most Hungary s hould get 3-4.

Hungary are odds on to get under 3.5 corners and Portugal's line is at 7.5 so the bookies certainly fancy a dominant game to Portugal here as do I.

Hungary conceded an average of 5.25 corners in qualifying in a group which I have said was weak, containing N. Ireland, Romania, Finland, Faroe Islands and Greece so now up against a team like Portugal they should concede plenty of them.

They also only averaged just over 4 against these weak opponents so it should be a struggle for them to get many here. They got 4 against Austria who were down to 10 men for over half an hour and then got 5 against Iceland when they were trailing and pressing for 48 minutes of the game.

Portugal dominate the game for me and rack up the corner count over 90 minutes.

Oskarshamns vs Norrby Oskarshamns AIK Over 1.5 Team Goals

Norrby make the 257km trip from Boras this evening to face Oskarshamn at the Oskarshamn Arena in the Knowledge that the hosts seem to have some kind of curse over them in recent years. in 4 previous meetings Oskarshamn have collected 12 points from a possible 12, scoring 10goals in the process including 4 in a4-2 win over them here last season.

The two sides separated only by goal difference in the Swedish 1st division but that tells only part of the story. only 1 of the 13 points collected by Norrby IF this season has been collected on their travels and that was on the opening day of the season. Since then they've recording back-to-back-to-back losses, the latter of which was 2-1 loss to 2nd bottom side Tvaaker. They've played 2 home games since that loss, recording a narrow victory over 4th bottom side Trollhattan before then drawing 1-1 with bottom of the league Qviding. it's hardly from to shout about for Simon Eriksson's men who sit 7th in the league. And having conceded 2 or more goals in 3 of their 4 away games this year, they won't be relishing the journey to the east coast

Oskarshamn AIK sit narrowly behind today's opponents on goal difference. in their last home game here they suffered 0-3 loss to surprise package Prespa Birlik but that was the only game in their last where they failed to find the net at least twice. Henrik Larsson(not that one) has some decent goalscorers with the likes of Chrisopher and former Kalmar player Anton Abebjorn as well as Andreas Birgesson Who join from Oster IF last season

I expect Oskarshamn to stick a few in today against a side they have an incredible record against and terribly out of form at the moment

phemmyhelu:

Oskarshamns vs Norrby Oskarshamns AIK Over 1.5 Team Goals

Norrby make the 257km trip from Boras this evening to face Oskarshamn at the Oskarshamn Arena in the Knowledge that the hosts seem to have some kind of curse over them in recent years. in 4 previous meetings Oskarshamn have collected 12 points from a possible 12, scoring 10goals in the process including 4 in a4-2 win over them here last season.

The two sides separated only by goal difference in the Swedish 1st division but that tells only part of the story. only 1 of the 13 points collected by Norrby IF this season has been collected on their travels and that was on the opening day of the season. Since then they've recording back-to-back-to-back losses, the latter of which was 2-1 loss to 2nd bottom side Tvaaker. They've played 2 home games since that loss, recording a narrow victory over 4th bottom side Trollhattan before then drawing 1-1 with bottom of the league Qviding. it's hardly from to shout about for Simon Eriksson's men who sit 7th in the league. And having conceded 2 or more goals in 3 of their 4 away games this year, they won't be relishing the journey to the east coast

Oskarshamn AIK sit narrowly behind today's opponents on goal difference. in their last home game here they suffered 0-3 loss to surprise package Prespa Birlik but that was the only game in their last where they failed to find the net at least twice. Henrik Larsson(not that one) has some decent goalscorers with the likes of Chrisopher and former Kalmar player Anton Abebjorn as well as Andreas Birgesson Who join from Oster IF last season

I expect Oskarshamn to stick a few in today against a side they have an incredible record against and terribly out of form at the moment

Won

phemmyhelu:
IFK TIMRA V FRISKA VILJOR OVER 3.5 GOALS

This is in the lower leagues of "Sweden - Division 2 Norrland

Timra are averaging 4.1 goals in their 6 games so far with Friska seeing 3.5 on average so to get odds against here looks a good shout in my opinion and slight value for us.

Combined between the pair exactly 12 of their 24 games have seen over 3.5 goals land and again showing this to be a value bet at odds against.

What I like even more here is the outcomes when they are in this home and away format. Timra at home have seen an average of 4.2 goals in 6 games with Friska away seeing bang on 4 as an average. With the combined goals in each teams home and away games (50) it gives an average of 4.16 goals.

Timra have scored 12 and conceded 13 in the 6 home games so they are scoring and conceding 2+ goals, Friska have scored 6 in 6 away so could definitely score a goal or 2 against a leaky defence and also they have conceded 19 goals! A huge 3+ goals conceded on average.

Timra have seen 5 of their 6 home games go over 3.5 goals at home this season with Friska going over in 4/6 and therefore combined that gives a success rate of 9/12 games. This equates to 75% yet you are getting a 5/4 best price.

The sides have met 3 times since 2007 with each game having at least 4 goals with an average of 4.6 over the 3.

Won

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BRAZIL: Série B
Luverdense vs Londrina Luverdense -0.5,-1.0 Asian Handicap

Why i'm backing the bet. Look at the league tables and you'll find two sides separated by only 1 point and think this is a bit of a dead ringer, but there's more to this than meets the eye. i could go on about Luverdense's home record, which is just hit and miss. None of that really matters for this, because Londrina had a full side when they played those previous game but now they have a crisis.

Firstly, we have to consider the sheer distance and logistical nightmare getting from Londrina to Luverdense's home town of Luccas do Rio Verde, It's gruelling 1,647km journey which the side took yesterday, heading from Londrina to Maringa airport by bus (a 2 hour drive), then catching a flight to Cuiaba(a 5 hour flight) where they now reside before making the 359km journey north by bus before the game (4 hours).

But not only do Claudio Tencati's side faces such a gruelling journey, they must make that journey without a number of key players:

Everton Sena (DF, 0 apps,0 goals)
Marcondes (DF, 2 apps, 0 goals)
Matheus (DF, 10 apps, 0goals)
Silvio (DF, 7 apps, 0 goals)
Luizao (DF, 5 apps, 0 goals)
Germano(MF, 11 apps, 1 goals)
Itamar (ST, 6 apps, 1 goals)
Rondinelly(ST, 5 apps, 0 goals)

This makes what already a difficult journey even more difficult for Londrina, and thought they do have some depth in the squad, the serious problems in their defence means Tancati is likely to lineup with 3-5-2 as he simply does not have enough defenders left to fill the gaps. Anderson, Jumar and Diogo Roque are all not 100% and are yet to play this season but could be used to fill the gaps at the back. In his squad they have named 5 full-backs but a single centre half! i expect Luverdense to take advantage.