By Simon Ebegbulem, Benin-City

It is now 6 days to the  gubernatorial primary of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Edo State, scheduled for June 18, 2016. Expectedly, the contenders for the ticket are at war. The Benin Leaders of Thought (BLT),  a socio-cultural organization led by the Enogie of Obazuwa, Prince Edun Akenzua, had recently endorsed five aspirants of the APC for the epic battle and there is doubt that any of the five will carry the day as it seems in the coming primaries of the party. The BLT, in its recommendation, said the  five aspirants “eminently satisfied the state 75 per cent cut off point”.

The five aspirants are the deputy governor of the state, Dr Pius Odubu;  Engr.Chris Ogiemwonyi; Osarodion Ogie; Godwin Obaseki and Gen.Charles Airhiavere. And among the five, Governor Adams Oshiomhole, who cannot be taken for granted in this race owing to the fact that he needs to anoint his successor, is backing the Chairman of the state Economic Team, Obaseki. And because Obaseki is not a known politician but a technocrat, the governor has been able to galvanize his foot soldiers to deliver Obaseki.

But taking a look at the aspirants endorsed by the BLT, one of them, Ogie, who is  the current Commissioner for Works in the state, was prevailed upon by his boss, Oshiomhole, to drop his ambition and support Obaseki. Today, Ogie is the Director General of the Obaseki Campaign Organization. Ogie is a leader in, Oshiomhole political family and well-grounded politically to boost Obaseki’s chances. Of course, delegates loyal to him are today backing Obaseki. As a matter of fact, Ogie coordinated the attack against a former member of the party, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, during the congresses of the state APC  in 2014 which forced Ize-Iyamu out of the party.  Meanwhile,  Ogie and Odubu will be playing mind games ahead of the primary due to the fact that they both  understand the delegates. Most of the delegates have  been under the control of Ogie who oils Oshiomhole’s political machinery and that was why his followers were bitter when his boss charged him to use  his structure to deliver Obaseki. Exhibiting loyalty, Ogie painfully heeded the call  and today he is in the field working for Obaseki.

Ogiemwonyi and Odubu command respect in this battle because they have been preparing for it over the years. They are big shots in this race and of course will call Oshiomhole’s bluff and gun for the ticket rather than stepping down for Obaseki. And the reason is not far-fetched. Though Ogiemwonyi, who is the eldest in terms of age among the five aspirants, enjoys close relationship with Oshiomhole’s family, because Oshiomhole’s unwavering support for Obaseki, he decided to pursue his destiny without Oshiomhole’s support. After spending 34 years in the oil sector and, being a former Minister of State Works, he, of course, has the financial muscle and the experience to see to the end of this race. Additionally, it is rumored that he enjoys the backing of the National Chairman of the party, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. Ogiemwonyi is optimistic and roaring to go. Interesting, he has exhibited maturity in this race through his campaign for peaceful elections in the state.

Odubu is presumed to be the most loyal deputy governor in the country until  things fell apart between him and his boss, Oshiomhole. Okakuo (warrior), as he is fondly called, is the greatest threat to Obaseki’s ambition just like Ogiemwonyi. Odubu has been a staunch member of the Oshiomhole political family. As a result, he understands how that group operates. But the snag for him is Ogie’s presence in the Obaseki project. Odubu, Ogie and Philip Shaibu, who is now in the House of Representatives, run things for Oshiomhole. It would have been better for Odubu if Ogie had remained aloof but the latter had decided to join his boss to deliver Obaseki.

Unfortunately for the two groups now, things have fallen apart and the center can no longer hold; therefore they are bound to clash in the field. Odubu’s confidence is rising from the fact that he understands the bulk  of the delegates, besides there is always this saying in APC that whoever Oshiomhole supports in any primary does not always win. Odubu definitely has this in mind and  is working round the clock to fix his boss and Obaseki. But this is a different ball game, the governorship election and not any other election. Oshiomhole as it seems has learnt his political lessons and has rejigged his political machinery to deliver Obaseki.

But   Oshiomhole and Ogie know Odubu’s weak points and they will surely capitalize on it. Odubu’s strength lies in the key veteran politicians such as the Political Adviser to Oshiomhole, Charles Idahosa, and Harrison Omagbon, but Oshiomhole has been able to infiltrate that group. Some of the people in that group today are in the Obaseki project. Obviously, Odubu will not step down for anybody, but whether he will be able acquire the muscle to outsmart  Oshiomhole and Ogie is another matter. However he is enjoying the support of a former House of Representatives member, Samson Osagie.

They are hoping they will be able to garner the same delegates that voted for Osagie, during his senatorial primary for Odubu. Osagie defeated Oshiomhole’s Chief of Staff, Patrick Obahiagbon, in that senatorial race. They are basking on that confidence that because they gave the governor a shocker by ensuring that Igodomigodo is defeated in that race, that they are prepared to inflict same defeat to Obaseki in Edo South. But Sunday Vanguard was reliably informed that Oshiomhole also supported Osagie financially in that race which further empowered him with the support he received from Odubu. The battle between the two groups will be fierce but it is a contest that, at the end of the day, whoever carries the day, they will shake hands and move towards the main election. Okakuo is surely a threat to the Obaseki project but his boss will surely unleash his eight years’ experience in politics on him.

Airhiavbere ran against Oshiomhole in 2012 as the PDP candidate but later joined the APC. He enjoys close relationship with Oshiomhole and he is one man capable of entering into a deal with Oshiomhole. Sunday Vanguard recalls that the Esogban of Benin, Chief David Edebiri, and some other Benin chiefs had, in 2012, advised Airiavbere to abandon the PDP and work with Oshiomhole so he can succeed Oshiomhole in 2016. But the retired general, who enjoyed the support of the PDP hierarchy then, shunned overtures. Sunday Vanguard learnt that Oshiomhole admires Airhiavbere’s fighting spirit and the retired general has won the governor’s heart with the way he had carried on with his campaign without bitterness. Airhiavbere is somebody that Oshiomhole will surprisingly back for the governorship outside his traditional foot soldiers like Obaseki and Ogie. Arhiavbere equally has the wherewithal to fight in this primary but he will always strike a balance as regards his relationship with Oshiomhole.

However, considering Oshiomhole’s ruthless political machinery, it would have been better for Odubu and Ogiemwonyi to present one candidate to battle Obaseki who is Oshiomhole’s man. But that may not happen. Oshiomhole is mindful of the experience of  former Delta State Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan who lost out in the power play to produce a successor. Consequently, he is happy with this situation knowing fully well that the duo are his problem. And while he is expected to garner block votes from the delegates from his Edo North for Obaseki, Edo South, where Oshiomhole also enjoys huge support, and Edo Central will be the battle field for all the aspirants including Obaseki. The June 18 primary of the APC will be a historic battle because whoever wins has a huge advantage to occupy Osadebey Avenue, the seat of power in Edo.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/06/6-days-edo-apc-gov-primary-obaseki-odubu-airhiavere-others-stand/

Too long

interesting

la Reporting, la perfection. The writer above is a professional in journalism. He was been fair to all parties involved without bias. Lovely.

That's OK.... may the best man win

See them...

Those that contribute to put us in this mess we are!!

Edo pipo...one advise...choose wisely!!!

Cus they will promise heaven and earth and deny you after they win.

Shey na their style!!

Na PDP we want for Edo not all these dudes. We don open eye for Oshiomole Scam. Oshiomole will give you 1 naira and connive 100 naira from you. 419 Gov.

They will still fight...bunch of idiots!

Pastor Ize iyamu is the next governor of Edo state.


South South is PDP and PDP is South South.

We don't want Oshiomole's puppet who would cover his atrocious activities as Governor of Edo state. He must account for his eight disastrous years as Governor of Edo.

Edo elections gonna be bloody, diabolic and "hogwashy".
Not too long ago, we saw one of the aspirants " flying" to ?govt house?

Osho go and enjoy ur university..PDP is winning edo

Wat do we do wit their stand cos I dnt see hw 'saints' hlp d economy. Stand ko, stool ni. @ d end they have nothing to offer but more hardships

Hot!!!

Hw did we get here for God sake, same old people just recycling them self.

let the most handsome man among them win!! Na joke I de o

it is unfortunate that Edo has no credible politician to present as governor.over half of the APC candidates are political prostitutes .we need a good and strong governor disconnected from the apron of oshiomole so they can right his wrongs, the guy has looted the state dry,th ugs and agberoes have taken over,so many uncompleted project,if they knew they would have only allowed him to do one term...his first term was better than igbinedion 8years..God help Edo state

If no Kenneth imasaugbon den Apc will lose to ize iyamu

Good

jide219:
If no Kenneth imasaugbon den Apc will lose to ize iyamu

Kenneth imasaugbon is an OK candidate,but he should never had jumped from PDP to APC that made him lose a lot of credibility with the people....

Agunechemba1:
Pastor Ize iyamu is the next governor of Edo state.


South South is PDP and PDP is South South.

We don't want Oshiomole's puppet who would cover his atrocious activities as Governor of Edo state. He must account for his eight disastrous years as Governor of Edo.

Your name resembles someone from the east. Why don't you concern yourself with politics from the south east?

Or are the eastern states too developed to receive your attention and proclamation?

[quote author=Agunechemba1 post=46524761]Pastor Ize iyamu is the next governor of Edo state.


South South is PDP and PDP is South South.

We don't want Oshiomole's puppet who would cover his atrocious activities as Governor of Edo state. He must account for his eight disastrous years as Governor of Edo.

Are you madIze wetin? if another candidate ok but not that thief

hiroz:
Kenneth imasaugbon is an OK candidate,but he should never had jumped from PDP to APC that made him lose a lot of credibility with the people....

Kenneth imasuangbon is a lightweight. He has no political capital or force in Edo state. He may be of good nature or it may be because people do not know so much of him compared to other juggernauts.

You think he would defeat Ize iyamu in a PDP primary? Think again

Etinosajay:


Your name resembles someone from the east. Why don't you concern yourself with politics from the south east?

Or are the eastern states too developed to receive your attention and proclamation?

Must he come from South South before he comments? Nigerians always tribalistic!

bottom line....there would be plenty of moneys in Edo state very soon...

Well anyone dy chose is their own cup of tea...as fr me n my household, we wl nt risk our life to vote fr any nigeria politician who dnt care abt d welfare of his ppl bt only his family n his pot beli..




There children neva vote bt here we're risking our life fr ppl who dnt value their ppl bt jst their selfish interest...

No way... If u dnt change nw frm ur evil ways God wl visit u soon

Oshimole enjoy lara now while it lasts.. that's if you know what I mean.

hiroz:
it is unfortunate that Edo has no credible politician to present as governor.over half of the APC candidates are political prostitutes .we need a good and strong governor disconnected from the apron of oshiomole so they can right his wrongs, the guy has looted the state dry,th ugs and agberoes have taken over,so many uncompleted project,if they knew they would have only allowed him to do one term...his first term was better than igbinedion 8years..God help Edo state

Your comment reaks of ignorance.

Your definition of a credible person is probably an outsider or a stranger. You may call them credible because they haven't occupied public office, or the people know so little about who they are. Name me one public office holder that can bear that adjective "credible" as a unanimous opinion across political divides or even within their own party.

If you know how the political process works world over, you will know that it is easier for the head of a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for an outsider/stranger to emerge from a political calculation.

In fact, there is no such thing as an outsider or stranger. Even donald trump is not an outsider. He's been giving donations to both sides (republicans and democrats alike). He is part of the system.

So you see, there is no credibility in politics. We only judge public office holders or seekers from what we know of them.

Case study: Oshiomhole had widespread acceptability prior to running for office, but today, opinions are divided

Etinosajay:


Kenneth imasuangbon is a lightweight. He has no political capital or force in Edo state. He may be of good nature or it may be because people do not know so much of him compared to other juggernauts.

You think he would defeat Ize iyamu in a PDP primary? Think again

2 and 3 years ago when Kenneth was still in PDP he was like the only known candidate in PDP,iyamu was long forgotten but Kenneth refused to build political grassroot following all he did was share rice to people that will not come out and vote..he messed up

frubben:
Hw did we get here for God sake, same old people just recycling them self.

Donald trump is 69. Hillary Clinton is 68.

Same old people, right?

Marco Rubio is 44, he got nowhere

hiroz:
2 and 3 years ago when Kenneth was still in PDP he was like the only known candidate in PDP,iyamu was long forgotten but Kenneth refused to build political grassroot following all he did was share rice to people that will not come out and vote..he messed up

Sharing rice does not create political machinations.

Trust and loyalty is an important thing in politics. Especially loyalty (when you call they answer, not money)

Kenneth imasuangbon was not able to create any of those, that's why he is a lightweight politician.

Today he is neither here no there.

Ize iyamu is only barely a year old in PDP, and he is the frontrunner, because he retained his base of support, despite changing party twice.

Etinosajay:

will you call a politician who jumps from one party to another a sound politician...I don't like the fact that they are all tied to oshiomole apron...I do get you point,a politician we look down on may get into office and do very well and a popular one e.g oshiomole before office may get there and mess up.I hope we can one day have a politician rise above the mediocrity of naija politics.no insults abeg,we no dey fight.

From the article, it appears the process has been tailored to produce Obaseki. Other candidates should step down and back the most popular among candidate among them. This is the only way to beat Oshiomole and his political acolyte in their own game.