Are You Better off Than You Were a Year Ago? By Shaka Momodu.
JULY 7, 2016 BY DURUEBUBE
Fellow Nigerians, it is 12 months since President Muhammadu Buhari took over the reins of power. It is a short time in four-year tenure to draw conclusive verdict on the administration, but time enough to do a preliminary appraisal of the government and see if it is leading us in the direction that inspires hope. In this expedition, let me adopt the memorable question asked by the then candidate Ronald Regan in the 1980 US presidential election debate. It was a question put to the American people one week to the presidential election. Today, I put that same question to the Nigerian people to earnestly answer to mark Buhari’s one year in office: Are you better off now than you were a year ago?
Let me break it down into several units for ease of understanding. Is it more difficult for you to go to the market or the mall to buy foodstuffs than it was one year ago? Is the level of unemployment in the country higher than there was 12 months ago? Is the country’s economy in decline? Are you paying more for each litre of petrol? Is the electricity situation worse than it was a year ago? Is the industrial capacity utilisation lower? Is the country’s GDP shrinking? Is the standard of living lower? Is the country less secure? Is the country more fractured? If you answer these questions in the affirmative, it means the change we were sold has not materialised. Before I forget, has the party in power fulfilled any of the electoral promises it made to the public during the campaigns? What about the misery index and poverty ratio?
On all these, I do not pretend to expect a unanimity of opinion devoid of emotive impulses that have defined public debate in recent times. But I will deal with some of the issues with facts and figures to tell the story of where we are because numbers don’t lie.
There is no doubt at all that the Nigerian economy is in crisis; it’s spiralling rapidly out of Buhari’s control. If you don’t believe it, then you probably are one of those who can’t discern the forest from the trees. A fortnight ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released damning figures on Nigeria’s dire economic situation. It revealed that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had plunged to a historic low, -0.36 per cent from 2.11 per cent in the last quarter of 2015. As a matter of fact, Nigeria is technically in a recession right now.
I had raised the alarm month after month that Buhari was not paying attention to the economy, and that at the rate things were deteriorating under his watch, the country risked falling off the clifftop. It was a warning that was consistently booed by Buhari’s mob supporters who have since the campaigns lost their marbles and embraced hysterical propaganda as an article of faith. This has shown clearly how easily emotions blind us to the danger ahead – when you see an otherwise well-educated individual displaying crass illogicality in his arguments just to excuse evidence of a massive leadership failure, you begin to wonder whether there is a virtue in stupidity. It doesn’t bear thinking how depraved the excuses have become, it is simply grotesque to force-feed a people unrelenting propaganda, untruths and excuses for a debilitating non-performance. The arguments have been as ambivalent as they came; despite an iron-clad determination to hide the truth, it just would not go away. Stripped of the glossy world of make-believe is a dysfunctional, clueless and dithering government totally bereft of modern ideas about the economy. The All Progressives Congress (APC) clearly campaigned in poetry but is now governing in prose. After winning the election, it started repudiating all the promises it made with such self-assuredness. It dissected all the problems of Nigeria and eagerly offered curative solutions with a messianic fervour. It promised everything under the sun just to get power; of course some discerning minds knew it was all lies, but it nonetheless fired up the imaginations of many who started visualising paradise from the party. Roused to action, they came up with the rallying cry: “Anyone but Jonathan.” The sermon, “Be careful what you wish for,” was lost on all, as endorsement after endorsement tumbled in both from within and outside the country for the general who could hardly believe his fortune.
A week after the NBS’s report, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) declared that the Nigerian economy suffered severe decline in the past one year. The LCCI report titled, “The Economy After One Year of Buhari’s Administration” is a depressing confirmation of what I have long feared. While reviewing the various declining indices that left the overall economy in a shambles since Buhari assumed office, the organised private sector body made a graphic comparison between where the country was on May 29, 2015 and where it is now. According to the LCCI, the GDP of the country which stood at 2.35 per cent in May 2015 when the current administration took office, has now crashed to -0.4 per cent (negative growth).
As for the official exchange rate of the dollar to the naira, in May 2015, $1 exchanged for N197.9, while in 2016, $1 exchanges for N199. But in the parallel market, according to the LCCI, $1 exchanged for N219 in May 2015 but depreciated to about N350 in May 2016.
Other indices analysed were the rate of inflation which according to the LCCI, jumped from 8.7 per cent in May 2015 to 13.7 per cent in May 2016. The crude oil output of the country has dipped significantly, owing to renewed militancy in Niger Delta. In Buhari’s one year, the nation’s external reserves also declined from $29.1 billion to $26.42billion.
The Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) also had its revenue markedly depleted from N409 billion in May 2015, to N288 billion in May 2016. Unemployment figures soared higher during the period, rising from 24.1 per cent in 2015, to 29.2 per cent in 2016.
Other figures analysed by the LCCI included the Business Confidence Index which tumbled from 7.3 per cent to -8.0 per cent (negative); Industrial Capacity Utilisation and Ease of Doing Business both fell sharply; agricultural sector growth fell from 4.7 per cent to 3.09 per cent; industrial sector growth fell from -2.53 per cent to -5.4 per cent; services sector growth fell from 7.04 per cent to 0.80 per cent; aviation passenger traffic dropped from 4.2 million to 3.8 million people; Real Estate Vacancies Index rose from 100 units to 143 units; power output dropped from 3,205 MW to 2,500 MW; power available per day dropped from 13 hours to 5 hours. The picture is so grim that one is surprised how quickly things have deteriorated under Buhari in just one year in office.
In March this year, in my article titled, “Paradox of the Poor”, I borrowed the words of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who in an open letter to the then president, Shehu Shagari, in 1982 warned that the nation’s economy was in dire straits – to raise the alarm about the massive drift of the ship of state under President Buhari. It went thus: “The ship of state is heading inexorably towards the rock and you as the chief helmsman owe it a duty to steer the ship away from it.” I was called all sorts of names by the mob supporters who have come to believe they have a greater stake in our dear country and are more patriotic than some of us. They attacked anyone who criticised the president no matter how justified, and defended all his actions no matter how indefensible, including his long silence on the Fulani herdsmen’s unprovoked massacre of communities. It is the same people who urged Buhari to take his time in constituting a cabinet so he would pick saints and angels to serve Nigeria. It took him nearly six months to finally constitute one. And what did the list contain? Some dreadful characters forever blemished with pillaging the commonwealth. If the truth be told; that cabinet delay, coupled with the fact that many investors were not impressed by the low calibre of some of the nominees that eventually made it, seriously eroded confidence in the president and his handling of the economy. Every subsequent misstep only worsened the state of the economy. I don’t know if we have survived the worst of the economic crisis but the various reports on the economic outlook are dreadfully gloomy on all fronts and forecasts for the future depressingly frightening. According to the data released by the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), the equities market lost N1.733 trillion in the last one year. For the first time in seven years, Nigeria recorded its first trade deficit. All the reviews of Buhari’s one year in office — local and foreign — have minced no words in condemning his handling of the economy.
What should serve as a sobering wake-up call is unfortunately being used by the APC and its dubious intellectual collaborators to grotesquely sermonise how bad things were, and that had Jonathan remained in office, Nigeria would have been finished by now, or worse still, would have simply disappeared completely because the “rot” would have continued. But how can these people continue with this narrative? Have they forgotten that barely two weeks into the Buhari presidency, when electricity supply marginally improved, they attributed it to Buhari’s body language? The Treasury Single Account (TSA), they took credit even though it was not Buhari’s initiative. They even deceived Nigerians then that the refineries were working, and many hailed the magic of body language. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo declared gleefully then that Buhari had started to achieve the “Nigeria of our dreams”, while Wole Soyinka followed with his now famous description of Buhari as a “born again phenomenon”.
For sure, we don’t know what would have happened if Jonathan had won a second term because we are not living in his present. But we are living in President Buhari’s present. On the economy, Jonathan’s period was certainly better than Buhari’s present going by the data released by the NBS, NSE and the LCCI. If we don’t remember, we absolutely will forget.” One year after Jonathan left office, we are still being force-fed conjectures of what would have been. One year after, we still have not seen the real change promised. On the contrary, the economic situation has worsened dramatically. Electricity generation is at a new low. Factories are shutting down and laying off workers in record numbers; investors are fleeing the country in droves and all the gains of the past 16 years are being eroded as the economy, according to Professor Pat Utomi, an APC card-carrying member, is dragged back to the “medieval” age.
Prices of foodstuffs have skyrocketed well beyond the reach of a minimum wage of N18,000. For example, a bag of rice in May 2015 averaged N8,000, while a bag of rice in May 2016 now costs N18,000; the cost of a bag of garri in May 2015 was N3,800, it now costs N8,000; a yam tuber in May 2015 was sold for an average price of N400, and now sells for N900; a basket of tomato in May 2015 was sold for N8,000, while a basket of tomato now costs N45,000. Add to the above is that a record number of people can’t pay their rents anymore. The misery index and poverty ratio are at highest levels in living memory. Change can be mysterious and beautiful and yet intriguingly complex and complicated especially when it is predicated on lies. Those promises made to Nigerians during the campaigns are quickly turning to memories.
Sadly however, the president and his party have never been known to take responsibility for anything; they blame others for their failures, but are quick to take credit for another’s successes. The truth must be told in no uncertain terms, Buhari and the APC have mismanaged and done incalculable damage to the Nigerian economy since assuming power. Certainly, the way to fix a problem is not to make it worse.
Finally, I must admit that he has done fairly well on Boko Haram, but this in itself is greatly undermined by the rising insecurity in the Niger Delta, Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB)/ MASSOB’s agitation for self-rule in the South-east and the reign of terror visited on communities by rampaging Fulani herdsmen across the country.

We don't need this kind of change anymore, Buhari should give us our former suffering back

Summary pls..
Personally, I am bigger and Better. So Alhamdulillahi!

dollyjoy:
We don't need this kind of change anymore, Buhari should give us our former suffering back

Sister Joy good morning .

That thing you said yesterday, I have already reported it to G.O. .

MrPresident1:


Sister Joy good morning .

That thing you said yesterday, I have already reported it to G.O. .

Goodmorning


But na true na,i am as pure as a crystal

Omotayor123:
Summary pls..

Personally, I am bigger and Better. So Alhamdulillahi!

Stop being selfish. In d past one year has d country fared well for all the people around you? Almighty Allah detests selfishness, when your neighbour your is poor and you selfishly say you are bigger and better without considering neighbour's poor estate, your faith is incomplete.

MrPresident1:


Stop being selfish. In d past one year has d country fared well for all the people around you? Almighty Allah detests selfishness, when your neighbour your is poor and you selfishly say you are bigger and better without considering neighbour's poor estate, your faith is incomplete.

Yes sir, That's Why I said Personally, And don't generalize. I am also one of those feeling the adverse effect of the Economy.

But still, we should give Thanks and appreciate.

dollyjoy:
Goodmorning


But na true na,i am as pure as a crystal

but... erm erm but... you said 'bad' tin yesterday na

This kind matter nor dey let us talk put again.

Omotayor123:

Yes sir, That's Why I said Personally, And don't generalize. I am also one of those feeling the adverse effect of the Economy.

But still, we should give Thanks and appreciate.

True you said personally, but you cannot be personal about this. Almighty Allah wants that we should feel the pains of our neighbours even in the words we speak...

Insha Allah, everything will be well

when u ask cripples and beggars on the street how market and they tell u dat there is hardship.i used to eat #70 food and i will be satisfied for the day but now after eating #250 food u go still find akra&bread chop.dis country self na to waka go mars sure pass.

MrPresident1:


but... erm erm but... you said 'bad' tin yesterday na

Which bad thing abeg

The worst of it all is that the government doesn't even know the hardship people are going through or rather choose to believe it's all propaganda! To them, the daily cries and complaints on the streets are all propaganda and are from aggrieved people who do not like the government!

To them, reality is propaganda and propaganda is reality, because that's their stock in trade and no one can do it better!

Just in one year, everything has slid so deep into abyss such that things that are supposed to be within the reach of the common man are now luxuries, crime on the streets is on the rise, all the economic indicators are plummeting, national integration is pulled apart by each action of the government! Yet the government seem not to care or believe it's propaganda!

Every now and then they come to bandy supposedly recovered loot in spite of which they still go on borrowing to do, who knows what? It is well!

dollyjoy:
Which bad thing abeg

G.O will tell you, I already told him

Na question be dis? Who wouldn't remember aunty Ngozi(finance minister under GEJ) telling us to brace up for austerity measures even before GEJ was kicked out. Oil price is down, our foreign reserve depleted before the new administration was sworn in, the naira was already falling before GEJ was kicked out, the FG had to borrow to pay civil servants in April and may 2015 when oil price hovered around 60+ dollars per barrel, no savings when oil price was as high as $140 per barrel, millions and billions of dollars of our Commonwealth flying upandan among GEJ's family and friends, no new refinery built despite the oil boom of several years.
Biko blame Buhari for all the mess caused by that ineffectual buffoon, it will never change the fact that GEJ was a curse in our national history.

Press like if you did not read this plenty tin.

In reply to the head topic : Yes am better off, but not by the hands of the supposed government

'The All Progressives Congress (APC) clearly campaigned in poetry but is now governing in prose'

Shaka Momodu, July 2016.

MrPresident1:


True you said personally, but you cannot be personal about this. Almighty Allah wants that we should feel the pains of our neighbours even in the words we speak...

Insha Allah, everything will be well

Aamin. Tnx

Yyeske:
Na question be dis? Who wouldn't remember aunty Ngozi(finance minister under GEJ) telling us to brace up for austerity measures even before GEJ was kicked out. Oil price is down, our foreign reserve depleted before the new administration was sworn in, the naira was already falling before GEJ was kicked out, the FG had to borrow to pay civil servants in April and may 2015 when oil price hovered around 60+ dollars per barrel, no savings when oil price was as high as $140 per barrel, millions and billions of dollars of our Commonwealth flying upandan among GEJ's family and friends, no new refinery built despite the oil boom of several years.
Biko blame Buhari for all the mess caused by that ineffectual buffoon, it will never change the fact that GEJ was a curse in our national history.

This is where Nigerians are getting it wrong....dwelling on the past. One year is enough for any serious manager to make positive impart. We should be worried that our economic woes as a nation is deteriorating fast under PMB. We all have a stake in this country and our president has to rise above pettiness and cheap propaganda and face the difficult task of bringing improvement to our economic indices. The honest question we should ask ourselves is what has PMB done with the revenue earned in the past one year? What has been happening to our agricultural and educational sectors in the past one year? What effort is the government making to diversify our economy....What effort is PMB making to ensure Nigeria's unity? Do all Nigerians in respective of tribes have sense on belonging? We cannot continue to blame the past regime forever. The fact is after one year, PMB seems to be the greatest threat to our unity and economic welfare. He will not change as long as we have sycophants and gullible people making excuses for his failures!

egbonnla:
This is where Nigerians are getting it wrong....dwelling on the past. One year is enough for any serious manager to make positive impart. We should be worried that our economic woes as a nation is deteriorating fast under PMB. We all have a stake in this country and our president has to rise above pettiness and cheap propaganda and face the difficult task of bringing improvement to our economic indices. The honest question we should ask ourselves is what has PMB done with the revenue earned in the past one year? What has been happening to our agricultural and educational sectors in the past one year? What effort is the government making to diversify our economy....What effort is PMB making to ensure Nigeria's unity? Do all Nigerians in respective of tribes have sense on belonging? We cannot continue to blame the past regime forever. The fact is after one year, PMB seems to be the greatest threat to our unity and economic welfare. He will not change as long as we have sycophants and gullible people making excuses for his failures!

Wrongs of over 16 years to be corrected in a year? Before we feel anything the new administration will do will take some time please.
Are you trying to tell me those events I highlighted that took place under GEJ would be eradicated or dealt with in a year? Be real bro, GEJ was a curse and our prayer should be that they get things right this time unlike GEJ who had about 6years to fix things but did virtually nothing.
It's as good as telling me you want to build a house now when your income monthly is 30,000 but you've told me earlier last year that you can't build such when you were earning 140,000.

egbonnla:
This is where Nigerians are getting it wrong....dwelling on the past. One year is enough for any serious manager to make positive impart. We should be worried that our economic woes as a nation is deteriorating fast under PMB. We all have a stake in this country and our president has to rise above pettiness and cheap propaganda and face the difficult task of bringing improvement to our economic indices. The honest question we should ask ourselves is what has PMB done with the revenue earned in the past one year? What has been happening to our agricultural and educational sectors in the past one year? What effort is the government making to diversify our economy....What effort is PMB making to ensure Nigeria's unity? Do all Nigerians in respective of tribes have sense on belonging? We cannot continue to blame the past regime forever. The fact is after one year, PMB seems to be the greatest threat to our unity and economic welfare. He will not change as long as we have sycophants and gullible people making excuses for his failures!

The question is, your hero that spent 6yrs in office, did Nigerians lived better when GEJ was leaving office compared to six yrs earlier? Now you are saying one year is enough to undo all the ills of past administration.
Were Nigerians safer - BH is a lesson never to be repeated
Were there fewer sack in the banks? Let me refresh your memory:

Zenith Bank sacks over 1,200 employees
Today is a sad day for some employees of Zenith Bank PLC, one of Nigeria’s leading new generation banks, who were served notices terminating their appointments and services.
We are unable to ascertain the actual figure of those affected, with initial report claiming no fewer than 1,200 were involved from all the bank’s branches, while a source close to the bank told Premium Times that about 240 people, including eight General Managers and 40 Assistant General Managers, were affected.
http://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/4819-zenith_bank_sacks_over_1_200_employees.html

Mass Sack At Diamond Bank
Published on April 14, 2015
The economic downturn in the country, coupled with the difficult regulatory climate, seems to be taking its toll on the financial sector as one of the top financial institutions, Diamond Banks Plc has sacked over 1,000 workers.
http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2015/04/14/mass-sack-at-diamond-bank/

gists:

The question is, your hero that spent 6yrs in office, did Nigerians lived better when GEJ was leaving office compared to six yrs earlier? Now you are saying one year is enough to undo all the ills of past administration.
Were Nigerians safer - BH is a lesson never to be repeated
Were there fewer sack in the banks? Let me refresh your memory:

Don't mind them, they'd want it to seem as if the economic decline started on 29th may 2015 when it was obvious it was already declining courtesy of GEJ and his cronies

Yyeske:
Na question be dis? Who wouldn't remember aunty Ngozi(finance minister under GEJ) telling us to brace up for austerity measures even before GEJ was kicked out. Oil price is down, our foreign reserve depleted before the new administration was sworn in, the naira was already falling before GEJ was kicked out, the FG had to borrow to pay civil servants in April and may 2015 when oil price hovered around 60+ dollars per barrel, no savings when oil price was as high as $140 per barrel, millions and billions of dollars of our Commonwealth flying upandan among GEJ's family and friends, no new refinery built despite the oil boom of several years.
Biko blame Buhari for all the mess caused by that ineffectual buffoon, it will never change the fact that GEJ was a curse in our national history.

Enough of this out-of-date tune abeg.

Which oil price is down? GEJ handed over when price per barrel of crude was $38 but it sells for around $50 today.

The government recently introduced a N50 postage duty on deposits made into current accounts. You have an idea how much that could fetch daily?

Besides these, this wicked anti-people government also transferred the burden of subsidy payment to the masses through the increase of PMS price from N87 to N145. So, the government is making more money than ever before.

What about the hundreds of billions of naira of "looted funds" they also claim to have recovered?


Buhari who inherited a reserve of about $30billion is simply incompetent, stop feeding the gullible with these lame excuses.

By the way, did you expect Jonathan to save for Buhari to come spend?

Yyeske:
Wrongs of over 16 years to be corrected in a year? Before we feel anything the new administration will do will take some time please.
Are you trying to tell me those events I highlighted that took place under GEJ would be eradicated or dealt with in a year? Be real bro, GEJ was a curse and our prayer should be that they get things right this time unlike GEJ who had about 6years to fix things but did virtually nothing.

It's as good as telling me you want to build a house now when your income monthly is 30,000 but you've told me earlier last year that you can't build such when you were earning 140,000.

So gullible and zombified you are that you don't know how many years GEJ spent in office.

Keep blaming Jonathan whose administration was a million times better than that of the confused, direction-lacking and divisive bigot you installed in Aso Rock.

The good thing is that Nigerians are getting wiser by the day, and our patience is fast approaching elastic limit.

Propaganda can't sustain this government for 4years.

Yyeske:
Wrongs of over 16 years to be corrected in a year? Before we feel anything the new administration will do will take some time please.
Are you trying to tell me those events I highlighted that took place under GEJ would be eradicated or dealt with in a year? Be real bro, GEJ was a curse and our prayer should be that they get things right this time unlike GEJ who had about 6years to fix things but did virtually nothing.
It's as good as telling me you want to build a house now when your income monthly is 30,000 but you've told me earlier last year that you can't build such when you were earning 140,000.

It is called nation building not correction of wrong! Keep correcting imaginary wrongs while the nation and economy deteriorate!

Yyeske:
Na question be dis? Who wouldn't remember aunty Ngozi(finance minister under GEJ) telling us to brace up for austerity measures even before GEJ was kicked out. Oil price is down, our foreign reserve depleted before the new administration was sworn in, the naira was already falling before GEJ was kicked out, the FG had to borrow to pay civil servants in April and may 2015 when oil price hovered around 60+ dollars per barrel, no savings when oil price was as high as $140 per barrel, millions and billions of dollars of our Commonwealth flying upandan among GEJ's family and friends, no new refinery built despite the oil boom of several years.
Biko blame Buhari for all the mess caused by that ineffectual buffoon, it will never change the fact that GEJ was a curse in our national history.

the write up was quite clear... are you better off now than you were a year ago? governments are meant to improve the welfare of the masses, not compound it & place the blame on the outgone government. its just like a grown man saying that he his homeless & poor because his father did not leave any inheritance for him. GEJ had his faults, no doubt, but don't you think its time we begin to let this government know that it needs to up its game?

on the issue of refineries, the government did not build because it wanted to fully privatize the sector, those that got the licence to build refused to do so because the government was still regulating prices due to the protest against full deregulation in 2012 (mind you, the government increased the minimum wage by over 100% before the increase in pump prices) no body invests in an economy where it does not have a reasonable control of its pricing.

in relation to that, with crude at over $100 pb, the government spent most of the money on fuel subsidies. however, the corruption in the system cannot be ignored & those who stole should be made to return the illgotten monies.

For those quoting me to gain relevance, you should know there was so much rot in the system which can't be cleaned up in one year, true we can't go on blaming the last administration but facts must be told. . . it messed up the system so much and we need some time for things to get fixed.
Questions, how much was in our foreign reserve before and after GEJ,
what was the value of the naira before and after GEJ,
how much was the value of our national debt before and after GEJ,
what was the price of a barrel of oil before and after GEJ.
Please no need arguing blindly, come with real facts.

like I have always stated, a lot of Buhari's die hard fans started following Nigerian politics post 2010 or 1999 at the earliest & believe that is when Nigeria's problems began. you also cannot fix a problem that is over 100 years in the making in 16 years (or 5 years for those who see only GEJ as the sole destroyer of Nigeria). but its time to move forward & not retain hatred in our hearts. Buhari will do well only he sees Nigerians holding him accountable for the progress of Nigeria.

by the way, if crude oil was $100+ in 2012 & it could be sold for N140, now that it is less than $50 why are we buying it at N145? facts are sacred...