Here’s an update on ‘The Great Battle of Aleppo’

Alexander Mercouris
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS

Rebel advances in southwest Aleppo likely to be ephemeral.
News of the capture by Jihadi rebels led by Jabhat Al-Nusra on Saturday morning of a Syrian military technical college in the outskirts of Aleppo in what the rebels are now calling ‘the Great Battle of Aleppo’ has led to a rush of claims in the media that the siege of Aleppo had been broken.



These reports reflect a misunderstanding of the fighting around Aleppo. As I discussed previously the Syrian army and its Iranian and Hezbollah allies simply do not have the numbers to mount a siege of eastern Aleppo similar to a medieval siege. Here is what I said before:

“Here it is important to make some qualifications. This is not the sort of siege that used to happen in the Middle Ages when an army would surround a town or castle whose garrison and population would then be completely cut off from the outside world. The Syrian army does not have the manpower to besiege the rebels in Aleppo in that way. It cannot control every inch of the territory around Aleppo and there are still plenty of ways for rebel fighters both to enter and exit the area of the city they control.”
To conduct the sort of encirclement of eastern Aleppo some people in the media has been talking about the Syrian army and its allies would need a force of more than a hundred thousand men, which is probably more than the total number of men the Syrian army has under arms across the whole of Syria.

Given this lack of manpower it is inevitable that the Syrian military will face periods when it becomes overstretched and has to make tactical retreats in the face of overwhelming rebel attacks. This happened on several occasions during the Syrian military’s offensive in February when rebel counter-attacks for brief stretches of time succeeded in closing the road links to Aleppo. It happened again in March when rebel offensives near Aleppo led by Jabhat Al-Nusra temporarily recovered some ground.

If it is true that as many as 10,000 rebel fighters have been involved in the rebel offensive in south west Aleppo over the last week, then it is a certainty that the Syrian military in the area of the technical college has been heavily outnumbered. This was almost certainly the case even if the number of rebel fighters was much lower, closer to the lowest figure given, which is 3,500. Probably the total number of Syrian troops and Hezbollah fighters defending the technical college numbered no more than a few hundred men at most, with the greater part of the better units of the Syrian army that are located in and around Aleppo still positioned in its northern outskirts where they recently closed the Castello road.

When thousands of rebels stormed the college late on Friday night – apparently with the help of seven suicide bombers driving trucks laden with explosives – the Syrian troops and their Hezbollah allies defending the college kept themselves alive (and therefore able to fight another day) by sensibly retreating first to the northern part of the college and then by withdrawing from the college completely on Saturday morning. To have done otherwise would have invited a mass slaughter to no purpose, with the practice of the Jihadi fighters being to take no prisoners. As Frederick the Great is reputed to have said, he who defends everything defends nothing.

The point is that this is almost certainly an ephemeral victory achieved by the rebels at horrendous cost. The rebels cannot use the small corridor they have punched through the government lines to re-supply the rebels in eastern Aleppo to any great degree, since the corridor can be easily bombed and shelled by the Syrian military and the Russian air force. Any rebel units stationed at the college will quickly become a target for Syrian and Russian bombing and shelling, and reports say that this is already happening.

More important still is that in order to maintain the momentum of their offensive the rebels are having to pull in men and supplies from across Syria and to concentrate them in a confined space where they are becoming easy targets for the Russian air force. It is a common myth that the rebels can always replace their losses because they have unlimited numbers of jihadi fighters at their disposal. If that were true the rebels would have won the war in Syria long ago. In reality as previous wars in Chechnya and Iraq show the pool of such people is actually relatively small. If the rebel losses the Syrians and the Russians are claiming are anywhere close to being true, then the rebels simply will not be able to sustain this effort for very long. As the rebel effort slackens, repeating the pattern of previous battles fought in Syria over the last few months, the Syrian military will counter-attack, recovering all the ground it has lost (including the technical college) and gaining more besides. Already there are reports of Syrian army units and Hezbollah fighters being redeployed to the area, probably precisely in preparation for the launch of such a counter-offensive.

The essential point is that what is being fought in and around Aleppo is a battle of attrition, which without external intervention the rebels cannot win.

In addition the rebel offensive has demonstrated something else, which is politically important in the context of the continuous dialogue the Russians are having with the US and – perhaps even more importantly in the aftermath of the coup attempt – with President Erdogan of Turkey. At the time of the “cessation of hostilities” agreement in February the US agreed that Jabhat Al-Nusra is a terrorist organisation and that the rebels in Syria should dissociate themselves from it. This agreement – and therefore this demand – were subsequently enshrined in a Resolution of the UN Security Council, and is therefore binding on the Turks.

Not only have the rebels in Aleppo completely failed to dissociate themselves from Jabhat Al-Nusra but over the last few days they have enthusiastically joined an offensive in which Jabhat Al-Nusra under its new name has provided the leadership. The reason for that is of course that all the rebels in and around Aleppo either belong to Jabhat Al-Nusra or to groups associated with it and are all Jihadis. The “moderate rebels” supposedly holding out in Aleppo against overwhelming odds simply don’t exist outside the imaginations of certain Western politicians and Western writers.

The US and the Turks will of course try to counter that what has supposedly driven the “moderate rebels” in Aleppo to unite behind Jabhat Al-Nusra is the Syrian offensive and the Russian bombing. That is however a threadbare argument and in their private discussions with the Russians Kerry and Erdogan and their diplomats will both find that following the rebel offensive their argument has just been made weaker.

how e take concern us ?

saintikechi:
how e take concern us ?

Thanks. Jobless people are so concerned with other countries that's got nothing to do with them and neglect their own backyard and country . Highest point of hypocrisy .

Lucasbalo:
Thanks. Jobless people are so concerned with other countries that's got nothing to do with them and neglect their own backyard and country . Highest point of hypocrisy .

What does your petty aquiescence with the viewpoint expressed by an id1ot who stumbles into the Foreign Affairs section to complain why this foreign news should "concern us", make you?

NairaMinted:


What does your petty aquiescence with the viewpoint expressed by an id1ot who stumbles into the Foreign Affairs section to complain why this foreign news should "concern us", make you?

Because he got more sense in his finger than you got in your body. Russia doesn't give a fu/k about you and your homies. If you love Russia that much, move to Moscow .

Lucasbalo:
Because he got more sense in his finger than you got in your body. Russia doesn't give a fu/k about you and your homies. If you love Russia that much, move to Moscow .

Lol! Ok let me say it then: It makes you very much an id1ot as he is. This is the Foreign Affairs section, stoopid!

And I have no intention of moving to Russia or any other country for that matter. How my admiration of Putin mandates me to move to Russia is lost on me..... I don't get it.....

You really have to look for another valid, sensible attack line my dear Lucas....

NairaMinted:


Lol! Ok let me say it then: It makes you very much an id1ot as he is. This is the Foreign Affairs section, stoopid!

And I have no intention of moving to Russia or any other country for that matter. How my admiration of Putin mandates me to move to Russia is lost on me..... I don't get it.....

You really have to look for another valid, sensible attack line my dear Lucas....

General Minted - Desist from giving that asshole with his kool-aid logged-brain attention. I have said it times without number, that when the kalibr cruise missiles, and the bulavas are ignited, simultaneously roaring up in sky - and racing towards Amerika, Lucas must remain in Chicago or flee to Mexico.

I know where his bottom-of-the-barrel apartment is located in ikeja, and I will unleash my irunmoles on him & his entire family should he attempt to come seek refuge in the Nigeria he hates & despises so much.

Zoharariel:


General Minted - Desist from giving that asshole with his kool-aid logged-brain attention. I have said it times without number, that when the kalibr cruise missiles, and the bulavas are ignited, simultaneously roaring up in sky - and racing towards Amerika, Lucas must remain in Chicago or flee to Mexico.

I know where his bottom-of-the-barrel apartment is located in ikeja, and I will unleash my irunmoles on him & his entire family should he attempt to come seek refuge in the Nigeria he hates & despises so much.

You and your twin of deception should keep deceiving each other. Your rants about Russia and Putin doesn't add a Nickel to your wellbeing . My parents are in Chicago now and will be spending the Xmas with them in Nigeria . Will Holla at you when I get to Nigeria in Dec. just want to see the face behind all that tripe you post. Will treat you nice and will even show you the way to enjoy not all pent up in your village in Ijebu Ode. As for your sidekick, Povertyminted, I have nothing for him. Appleyard and you are my favorites even though you get on my thick skin sometimes. Still will like to meet you in Nigeria since you decline my invitation to meet me in Chicago . Just trying to let you see the way human beings are meant to live, but you like your village life. I respect that because we all look at things differently.

Lucasbalo:
You and your twin of deception should keep deceiving each other. Your rants about Russia and Putin doesn't add a Nickel to your wellbeing . My parents are in Chicago now and will be spending the Xmas with them in Nigeria . Will Holla at you when I get to Nigeria in Dec. just want to see the face behind all that tripe you post. Will treat you nice and will even show you the way to enjoy not all pent up in your village in Ijebu Ode. As for your sidekick, Povertyminted, I have nothing for him. Appleyard and you are my favorites even though you get on my thick skin sometimes. Still will like to meet you in Nigeria since you decline my invitation to meet me in Chicago . Just trying to let you see the way human beings are meant to live, but you like your village life. I respect that because we all look at things differently.

Dear Lucas, I regret that I'm unable to accept your offer. The reason being - you cannot be encouraged to sow discord among members of the Russian Generals.

This is the same divide & rule tactics that Amerika has been using since 1940s to wreak havoc in all the continents of the globe, and as a matter of fact, I suspect that you've been bought over by the CIA.

Now, General Minted is nothing but a good & brave soldier, perfectly honourable & trustworthy in every way - and must be accorded the same respect & honour given to any member of this prestigious council - and the same goes for all the other members.

In regards to the invitation to your house in December, Y don't you just send me $100,000 (preferably in Euros since I'm allergic to the Amerikan dollars ) so that we “The Council of The Russian Generals” can use the money to obtain Russian visas with tickets to go spend atleast 2weeks in Moskow and pledge our allegiance to Vladimirovich Putin in person ?

Lucas, If you can do that, I will immediately summon 72 out of the 400 irunmoles to become your personal guides & topple the CEO of your money-doubling firm in Chicago so that you can receive quadruple promotion from Deputy Chief Janitor directly to the position of CEO & Chairman - and before you know it, you & Dangote will be on the same level - financially.

The Renewed Call for War in Syria is coming. Be ready.



It was reported, late last month, that a Clinton regime:


“…will reset Syria policy against ‘murderous’ Assad regime”


This comes from a statement made by one of Hillary’s aides, the delightfully named Jeremy Bash, speaking the
Telegraph Bash also said:


“…a Clinton administration would seek to bring moral clarity to the US strategy on the Syrian crisis.”


For those of you behind on your Newspeak lessons, “moral clarity” means bombing more people. It means arming terrorists and mercenaries (even more than they already are), and it means implementing the famous “no fly zone”.

People tend to think of a no-fly zone as a passive, defensive measure. It is neither.

A no fly zone means NATO jets patrolling the skies above Syria, shooting down Russian and Syrian bombers.

A no fly zone is World War III waiting to happen. A no fly zone is a global suicide pact. Nevertheless, it will almost certainly be part of the “moral clarity” Clinton intends to bring to bear on Syria.

There are also signs of a renewed propaganda campaign: The “new chemical attack” - the reported use of barrel-bombs laced with chlorine gas in Idlib province.


To sum up:


* In the week leading up to the 1st of August the Western media began a new barrage of propaganda concerning Syria, and especially Aleppo.

* On July 28th al-Nusra Front, the much derided “moderate rebels”, changed their name and disavowed all links to al-Qaeda (or pretended
to, at least).

* On August 1st the “rebels” launched a counter-attack, trying to cut the supply lines of the government forces surrounding Aleppo, and a Russian helicopter was shot down, killing 5 Russian soldiers.

Nobody is asking where the “besieged” rebels got the arms and supplies needed to counter-attack.

No one is asking where the rebels, who previously had no anti-air weapons, got the MANPADs required to take down a helicopter.

No one is asking, because everyone knows. It’s the same place ISIS get their matching Toyotas and green-screen equipment.

It’s the same place that started this war five years ago, and the same place that will set the whole world ablaze if allowed to go unchecked.

Zoharariel:
The Renewed Call for War in Syria is coming. Be ready.



It was reported, late last month, that a Clinton regime:


“…will reset Syria policy against ‘murderous’ Assad regime”



This comes from a statement made by one of Hillary’s aides, the delightfully named Jeremy Bash, speaking the
Telegraph Bash also said:


“…a Clinton administration would seek to bring moral clarity to the US strategy on the Syrian crisis.”


For those of you behind on your Newspeak lessons, “moral clarity” means bombing more people. It means arming terrorists and mercenaries (even more than they already are), and it means implementing the famous “no fly zone”.

People tend to think of a no-fly zone as a passive, defensive measure. It is neither.

A no fly zone means NATO jets patrolling the skies above Syria, shooting down Russian and Syrian bombers.

A no fly zone is World War III waiting to happen. A no fly zone is a global suicide pact. Nevertheless, it will almost certainly be part of the “moral clarity” Clinton intends to bring to bear on Syria.

There are also signs of a renewed propaganda campaign: The “new chemical attack” - the reported use of barrel-bombs laced with chlorine gas in Idlib province.


To sum up:


* In the week leading up to the 1st of August the Western media began a new barrage of propaganda concerning Syria, and especially Aleppo.

* On July 28th al-Nusra Front, the much derided “moderate rebels”, changed their name and disavowed all links to al-Qaeda (or pretended
to, at least).

* On August 1st the “rebels” launched a counter-attack, trying to cut the supply lines of the government forces surrounding Aleppo, and a Russian helicopter was shot down, killing 5 Russian soldiers.

Nobody is asking where the “besieged” rebels got the arms and supplies needed to counter-attack.

No one is asking where the rebels, who previously had no anti-air weapons, got the MANPADs required to take down a helicopter.

No one is asking, because everyone knows. It’s the same place ISIS get their matching Toyotas and green-screen equipment.

It’s the same place that started this war five years ago, and the same place that will set the whole world ablaze if allowed to go unchecked.

Amerika's proxies are throwing everything at Aleppo and they are indeed meeting their Waterloo there. The great battle of Aleppo is indeed one of great strategic importance and as such the imbelicic and deranged beings that run Amerikan foreign policy have been scurrying to work out a faux joint strike force with Russia. Their most formidable terror proxy army, Jabhat al-Nusra, as instructed by their masters, and to avoid being bombed, has also been busy rebranding itself and declaring their disengagement from Al-Qaeda. Lol!
Whilst they do that, other neocons have been hitting the airwaves unashamedly canvassing for no flight zones and the need to - in the words of Mike Morell - "kill Iranians and Russians" in a desperate bid to save their "regime change" agenda.

https://www.facebook.com/RussiaInsider/videos/1762669844003251/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYs_pfljaBE



On a side note, who remembers what the narrative of the Obama regime was prior to the Russian intervention:

"We’re talking four or five."
Some laughably candid figures provided by the head of US Central Command General Lloyd Austin September 2015, to the US Senate’s Armed Forces Committee when asked how many US-trained fighters are operating in Syria. This is after $500 million (plus others) had been squandered training so-called "moderate rebels" who only handed their fighters and men to a myriad of jihadist groups operating in Syria. Lmao!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fwxmjs0TKkI

saintikechi:
how e take concern us ?

Why don't you go to other categories like politics wey concern you and leave this one for those e concern.. It was shared in Foreign Affairs not local politics.

Try upgrade your level of education small nah. Common sense should be applied where necessary. This was shared in Foreign Affairs category not politics.

[size=18pt]ALEPPO UPDATE: SAA regains control - prepares for Final Battle [+Videos][/size]

August 12th, 2016 - Fort Russ News -
- by: J. Flores -





Events in the siege of Aleppo since our last update have followed a tense yet decisive course. While the specifics remained fluid, the overall outcome was a somewhat predictable course given the balance of forces. Changes which appeared to favor the 'rebel' takfiris began late in the day on August 6th, when al-Nusra and FSA began to make gains in their attempt to connect with the external takfiri force in the south-west area of Aleppo.

There was a brief connection, but very soon came under shelling and aerial bombardment from Russians, rendering this - as we reported several days ago - operationally unusable.

As we reported on the 7th/8th, this attempt to break the siege actually failed.

The fluidity of the situation of the exact area is depicted above, in south-west Aleppo, what was once a 2.4 km strip held only by the SAA and allies, is now a narrower and contested strip in the above map. However, this may not be accurate.

The two videos with a lot of aerial footage, shot by FSA (et al), shows several of the areas in question in this report, uploaded on the 9th, but the footage is from days before, prior to changing hands over to the SAA.

What is also interesting is the large scale of these areas and facilities. It may be easy to forget that before this war, Aleppo was a major city with several million people. On the map, this areas of southwest Aleppo looks small, but these videos show us something else entirely.

The first one in particular features the Ramouseh industrial district. The viewer can appreciate the extent of destruction, truly apocalyptic in nature.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzaIjwek6d0

This second one shows the Military Academy.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQS2H5MJrQg

World Islamic News provides the map update above, current for August 10th, 2016, but published reflecting August 11th. We believe this map reflects the situation on the 9th, or perhaps the 10th. We have conflicting reports about this, as we have it on good information that the 1070 block, the cement factory, as well as the Electrical Station and Ramuse Artillery are at the disposal of the SAA. These should be included as 'contested'.

We distinguish 'disposal' from 'control' because earlier the SAA made a statement on the 9th (see the quote below) about the ebb and flow of the battle, as well as some insight into their battle tactics. But Fort Russ actually prognosticated all of these several days before, on the morning of August 8th (7th in the US) in our article titled:

LATEST: Total Overview - Aleppo Battle now favors SAA

At the present time, we have confirmed that the information about the changes to the battlefield situation which we gave on the 7th/8th is accurate and generally reflects the situation now. This report therefore will include additional information as well as trivia that may be of interest, as well as an additional forecast on the strategy moving forward.

On August 9th, the SAA did finally announce what we had reported on August 8th:


The passage that terrorists opened toward the Eastern side of Aleppo after Syrian Arab Army units were ordered to withdraw and regroup is under SAA fire control.

The passage is not safe, not even for infantry personnel at night; it is as good as closed again.

However, that does not mean it will not be controlled again, and the points of which the Syrian forces withdrew from will not be recaptured. Unfortunately we cannot share any battle tactics yet; perhaps when that battle is over, we will try and explain a lot of SAA's movement.



What we can say now is that the SAA is preparing for counter offensive intended on capitalizing on their stabilizing of the situation.

This video gives a report from one area, on the 6th of August, when the rebel offensive to break the siege was in tact, and frustrating attempts by the SAA to make any progress on the siege.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrst4hMbDkw


But as of now, the Al-Nusra, FSA, et al, and their western and backers are clearly aware of the significant set backs since the 6th, and they are panicking.

This is evident because of the change in the nature of their own reporting on social media. There is now no more talk of a 'victory' at Aleppo. Now, the stories have returned to the 'human tragedy', and calls for western intervention for 'relief'.

Reuters is performing their roll, providing information war cover for the 'rebel' fighters. In this piece, titled, U.N. urges Aleppo ceasefire to repair water system, stem outbreaks, it is clear what is occurring.

Indeed, such 'assistance' is only possible through the institutions of the UN under Ban Ki Moon, which would only be authorizing movement of medical supplies for fighters and tools and parts for repairing equipment for artillery (etc.) under the guise of infrastructural (electrical, plumbing, etc.) parts.

That the western backed forces are calling for a ceasefire, with which they may regroup, rearm, and resupply, is very indicative that in this theatre, their awareness of their dire situation is acute.

Reuters is going into overdrive, reporting on the humanitarian situation, headlining that the "Intensifying fight for Aleppo chokes civilian population"






What this of course means is that the al-Nusra and FSA groups inside Aleppo are 'choking'. To fact check, before the SAA began to put the final clamp on the 'rebels', two weeks ago, humanitarian corridors were established, and civilians were moved into liberated west Aleppo, were provisions were made for tens of thousands of residents.


A 'moderate' machine gunner lays down suppressive fire at the cement factory wall


We will recall the story of the downed Russian helicopter making a humanitarian run, in connection with this. The government's intentions here are obvious and clear. While the US and GCC allies are trying to create a failed state, the Syrian government is trying to keep a Syria together that is governable, which includes a population that doesn't largely view that the state engaged in needlessly punitive actions upon civilian populations.

The strategy of the SAA now will be to melt the main power resources of the 'rebels' in one or several large battles. If al-Nusra and FSA, now fully besieged once again in Aleppo, are unable to access resupply of necessaries, they may have no choice but to surrender in some way, or make a final suicide push in desperation.

The only mitigating factor upon this may be larger geopolitical developments, which make it broadly opportune to engage in another ceasefire. There are a limited number of scenarios in which this would be advantageous, and whether that scenario will actually arise is difficult to project at this time. This may include something involving the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine, in the aftermath of the foiled assault on Crimea and Putin's decisive ultimatum.


What is important about the losses of the takfiris over the last week is that disproportionate number of these were from their special forces, about 3000 rendered inoperative as a result of the assault. They are from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkmen Battalion, all western trained.

That this vanguard was thrown in first is evident now for a number of reasons, including that they were reinforced with the best armor at the same time. When the takfiris threw their best armor at the SAA and allies, it was also clear that the infantry was special forces.

Their plan was for their job to do the big pushing, and then go into a reserve roll as to to not sustain loses from air power. This did not go as well as they had hoped.

At this time the SAA has not started the final counter offensive, and are instead strangling the takfiris and melting them with fire power.

Meanwhile, SAA reserves are coming including part of 15th Special Forces Division, several battalions, battalion of Hezbollah, and some Shia militias numbering several hundreds each, and some large army units, in particular an additional armored division.


Tiger Forces

Tiger forces are holding at Castello road, as they have avoided a trap. The 'rebels' have big group west of Castello, and the plan was that when they stormed the southern position, the army would bring reserves from the north and then make an attack on Castello road, which is open land and not urban warfare. But the SAA avoided this trap

The SAA continues to hold pressure on the south and there are seemingly two options.

The first is to hold them in a pocket and melt their resources, and bomb their over stretched columns from Turkey and Idlib, witch the Syrian and Russian army do very well.

The second option is to counter attack them immediately. For reasons discussed above, at this time, and based on movements observed now, including the 'cries' for help communicated through Reuters, it seems the army will go for the first option.

The FSA and al-Nusra are now in a strategic corner with no other exit.

They are leaving other fronts like Lattakia, where they have also sustained big defeats, to go to this battle which they cannot win, because they have sustained larger losses than the SAA several times over. They cannot win it, and at the same time cannot afford to lose it.

Still, there remains heavy fighting in the countryside of Lattakia.

It would appear that presently, the takfiris are only buying time and attempting to extend their legitimacy. Any counter offensive they could launch at this time would be would a real perspective of actual victory.

What happens with Turkey will also figure in greatly. One of the contingent factors is whether or when Turkey will close border. One credible theory is that Erdogan gave them passage for this battle because he knows when they lose Aleppo he will be able to wash his hands of them. He cannot disentangle so quickly, and while he has extricated Gulen members from the military and positions in the judiciary and educational system, there is the matter of the Muslim Brotherhood. He relies on the Muslim Brotherhood, but at the same time they have become both a pillar of support and a liability which operates as a domestic factor, beyond just NATO or the US, which forces him to continue to support ISIS and other formations in the Syrian conflict. This may be reminiscent of Poroshenko sending in vanguard units of Azov and Pravy Sektor groups in order to face certain demise, which relived him of certain political and even security pressure at home, once they were liquidated at the hands of the Donbass militias.

Iraq and its border will also figure in. The US has started deliver F-16's again to Iraq, they can extract additional resources from Iraq before Mosul falls, but the Iraqi government is now under good advisement and plays it smart, they see it as buying their independence.

This, closing the border with Iraq and Turkey are two of the most important factors which remain. The southern front from Jordan is almost totally pacified.

The outcomes of Eastern Ghouta and Lattakia will figure prominently, but the Syrian government has been carefully transferring the population from Ghouta as to make a more decisive attack possible, that makes use of air superiority.

The Syrian army was wise to withdraw from operations near Raqa because now it remains simply a fight to the death between the Kurdish YPG and ISIS.

A point of reader interest: Hezbollah used a drone and attacked takfiri positions in Aleppo


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAV7DwBfrZI

thanks for the beautiful update.. see the difference between the first and the second one..these western medias are just crooks.. terrorists have turned to civilians. terrorists armed to the tooth but the biased media,western /proxy media called them civilians and to spice it up shared photo of kids playing. mad media establishment wants people to think of civilian death in allepo...

NairaMinted:
[size=18pt]ALEPPO UPDATE: SAA regains control - prepares for Final Battle [+Videos][/size]

August 12th, 2016 - Fort Russ News -
- by: J. Flores -





Events in the siege of Aleppo since our last update have followed a tense yet decisive course. While the specifics remained fluid, the overall outcome was a somewhat predictable course given the balance of forces. Changes which appeared to favor the 'rebel' takfiris began late in the day on August 6th, when al-Nusra and FSA began to make gains in their attempt to connect with the external takfiri force in the south-west area of Aleppo.

There was a brief connection, but very soon came under shelling and aerial bombardment from Russians, rendering this - as we reported several days ago - operationally unusable.

As we reported on the 7th/8th, this attempt to break the siege actually failed.

The fluidity of the situation of the exact area is depicted above, in south-west Aleppo, what was once a 2.4 km strip held only by the SAA and allies, is now a narrower and contested strip in the above map. However, this may not be accurate.

The two videos with a lot of aerial footage, shot by FSA (et al), shows several of the areas in question in this report, uploaded on the 9th, but the footage is from days before, prior to changing hands over to the SAA.

What is also interesting is the large scale of these areas and facilities. It may be easy to forget that before this war, Aleppo was a major city with several million people. On the map, this areas of southwest Aleppo looks small, but these videos show us something else entirely.

The first one in particular features the Ramouseh industrial district. The viewer can appreciate the extent of destruction, truly apocalyptic in nature.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzaIjwek6d0

This second one shows the Military Academy.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQS2H5MJrQg

World Islamic News provides the map update above, current for August 10th, 2016, but published reflecting August 11th. We believe this map reflects the situation on the 9th, or perhaps the 10th. We have conflicting reports about this, as we have it on good information that the 1070 block, the cement factory, as well as the Electrical Station and Ramuse Artillery are at the disposal of the SAA. These should be included as 'contested'.

We distinguish 'disposal' from 'control' because earlier the SAA made a statement on the 9th (see the quote below) about the ebb and flow of the battle, as well as some insight into their battle tactics. But Fort Russ actually prognosticated all of these several days before, on the morning of August 8th (7th in the US) in our article titled:

LATEST: Total Overview - Aleppo Battle now favors SAA

At the present time, we have confirmed that the information about the changes to the battlefield situation which we gave on the 7th/8th is accurate and generally reflects the situation now. This report therefore will include additional information as well as trivia that may be of interest, as well as an additional forecast on the strategy moving forward.

On August 9th, the SAA did finally announce what we had reported on August 8th:


The passage that terrorists opened toward the Eastern side of Aleppo after Syrian Arab Army units were ordered to withdraw and regroup is under SAA fire control.

The passage is not safe, not even for infantry personnel at night; it is as good as closed again.

However, that does not mean it will not be controlled again, and the points of which the Syrian forces withdrew from will not be recaptured. Unfortunately we cannot share any battle tactics yet; perhaps when that battle is over, we will try and explain a lot of SAA's movement.



What we can say now is that the SAA is preparing for counter offensive intended on capitalizing on their stabilizing of the situation.

This video gives a report from one area, on the 6th of August, when the rebel offensive to break the siege was in tact, and frustrating attempts by the SAA to make any progress on the siege.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrst4hMbDkw


But as of now, the Al-Nusra, FSA, et al, and their western and backers are clearly aware of the significant set backs since the 6th, and they are panicking.

This is evident because of the change in the nature of their own reporting on social media. There is now no more talk of a 'victory' at Aleppo. Now, the stories have returned to the 'human tragedy', and calls for western intervention for 'relief'.

Reuters is performing their roll, providing information war cover for the 'rebel' fighters. In this piece, titled, U.N. urges Aleppo ceasefire to repair water system, stem outbreaks, it is clear what is occurring.

Indeed, such 'assistance' is only possible through the institutions of the UN under Ban Ki Moon, which would only be authorizing movement of medical supplies for fighters and tools and parts for repairing equipment for artillery (etc.) under the guise of infrastructural (electrical, plumbing, etc.) parts.

That the western backed forces are calling for a ceasefire, with which they may regroup, rearm, and resupply, is very indicative that in this theatre, their awareness of their dire situation is acute.

Reuters is going into overdrive, reporting on the humanitarian situation, headlining that the "Intensifying fight for Aleppo chokes civilian population"






What this of course means is that the al-Nusra and FSA groups inside Aleppo are 'choking'. To fact check, before the SAA began to put the final clamp on the 'rebels', two weeks ago, humanitarian corridors were established, and civilians were moved into liberated west Aleppo, were provisions were made for tens of thousands of residents.


A 'moderate' machine gunner lays down suppressive fire at the cement factory wall


We will recall the story of the downed Russian helicopter making a humanitarian run, in connection with this. The government's intentions here are obvious and clear. While the US and GCC allies are trying to create a failed state, the Syrian government is trying to keep a Syria together that is governable, which includes a population that doesn't largely view that the state engaged in needlessly punitive actions upon civilian populations.

The strategy of the SAA now will be to melt the main power resources of the 'rebels' in one or several large battles. If al-Nusra and FSA, now fully besieged once again in Aleppo, are unable to access resupply of necessaries, they may have no choice but to surrender in some way, or make a final suicide push in desperation.

The only mitigating factor upon this may be larger geopolitical developments, which make it broadly opportune to engage in another ceasefire. There are a limited number of scenarios in which this would be advantageous, and whether that scenario will actually arise is difficult to project at this time. This may include something involving the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine, in the aftermath of the foiled assault on Crimea and Putin's decisive ultimatum.


What is important about the losses of the takfiris over the last week is that disproportionate number of these were from their special forces, about 3000 rendered inoperative as a result of the assault. They are from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkmen Battalion, all western trained.

That this vanguard was thrown in first is evident now for a number of reasons, including that they were reinforced with the best armor at the same time. When the takfiris threw their best armor at the SAA and allies, it was also clear that the infantry was special forces.

Their plan was for their job to do the big pushing, and then go into a reserve roll as to to not sustain loses from air power. This did not go as well as they had hoped.

At this time the SAA has not started the final counter offensive, and are instead strangling the takfiris and melting them with fire power.

Meanwhile, SAA reserves are coming including part of 15th Special Forces Division, several battalions, battalion of Hezbollah, and some Shia militias numbering several hundreds each, and some large army units, in particular an additional armored division.


Tiger Forces

Tiger forces are holding at Castello road, as they have avoided a trap. The 'rebels' have big group west of Castello, and the plan was that when they stormed the southern position, the army would bring reserves from the north and then make an attack on Castello road, which is open land and not urban warfare. But the SAA avoided this trap

The SAA continues to hold pressure on the south and there are seemingly two options.

The first is to hold them in a pocket and melt their resources, and bomb their over stretched columns from Turkey and Idlib, witch the Syrian and Russian army do very well.

The second option is to counter attack them immediately. For reasons discussed above, at this time, and based on movements observed now, including the 'cries' for help communicated through Reuters, it seems the army will go for the first option.

The FSA and al-Nusra are now in a strategic corner with no other exit.

They are leaving other fronts like Lattakia, where they have also sustained big defeats, to go to this battle which they cannot win, because they have sustained larger losses than the SAA several times over. They cannot win it, and at the same time cannot afford to lose it.

Still, there remains heavy fighting in the countryside of Lattakia.

It would appear that presently, the takfiris are only buying time and attempting to extend their legitimacy. Any counter offensive they could launch at this time would be would a real perspective of actual victory.

What happens with Turkey will also figure in greatly. One of the contingent factors is whether or when Turkey will close border. One credible theory is that Erdogan gave them passage for this battle because he knows when they lose Aleppo he will be able to wash his hands of them. He cannot disentangle so quickly, and while he has extricated Gulen members from the military and positions in the judiciary and educational system, there is the matter of the Muslim Brotherhood. He relies on the Muslim Brotherhood, but at the same time they have become both a pillar of support and a liability which operates as a domestic factor, beyond just NATO or the US, which forces him to continue to support ISIS and other formations in the Syrian conflict. This may be reminiscent of Poroshenko sending in vanguard units of Azov and Pravy Sektor groups in order to face certain demise, which relived him of certain political and even security pressure at home, once they were liquidated at the hands of the Donbass militias.

Iraq and its border will also figure in. The US has started deliver F-16's again to Iraq, they can extract additional resources from Iraq before Mosul falls, but the Iraqi government is now under good advisement and plays it smart, they see it as buying their independence.

This, closing the border with Iraq and Turkey are two of the most important factors which remain. The southern front from Jordan is almost totally pacified.

The outcomes of Eastern Ghouta and Lattakia will figure prominently, but the Syrian government has been carefully transferring the population from Ghouta as to make a more decisive attack possible, that makes use of air superiority.

The Syrian army was wise to withdraw from operations near Raqa because now it remains simply a fight to the death between the Kurdish YPG and ISIS.

A point of reader interest: Hezbollah used a drone and attacked takfiri positions in Aleppo


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAV7DwBfrZI

Lucasbalo please leave the Kremlin clowns be.Their beloved Russia would be put back at the edge of the world where they belong when Madam President takes over.You wonder why they are desperate to elect Trump by influencing the election any way they can,cause they know what Hill brings to the table,that means no more business as usual for Russia in Syria.Six months from now am sure they'll desist from sucking Putin c*ck

ValerianSteel:
Lucasbalo please leave the Kremlin clowns be.Their beloved Russia would be put back at the edge of the world where they belong when Madam President takes over.You wonder why they are desperate to elect Trump by influencing the election any way they can,cause they know what Hill brings to the table,that means no more business as usual for Russia in Syria.Six months from now am sure they'll desist from sucking Putin c*ck

PENTAGON DECIDED TO TEST RUSSIAN STRENGTH

The US military departments blackmail Moscow with a military solution of the Syrian issue.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-HW0yZrS2w
Photo: Global Look Press
The so-called American Plan B on Syria suggests a heavy-handed scenario. It was developed by the US military departments in a secret from the White House, the Izvestiya newspaper reported on Friday, citing a source in diplomatic circles.

According to the source, the Plan B was developed by the US security agencies for a case of failure of the efforts of the US Department of State. It involves intensification of airstrikes by the US-led international coalition, sending of the additional Special Forces, and increase in the supply of arms to the so-called ‘moderate’ opposition. It is supposed to depose the leadership in Damascus with the help of ‘moderate’ militants. The source noted that the US Department of State was not involved in the development of an alternative military strategy on Syria.

As the source said, now the ‘spare’ plan goes on the agenda due to the offensive, launched against positions of militants in Aleppo, which came as a surprise for supporters of the military solution of the Syrian crisis.

“Return of control over the city by the government forces is inadmissible for them, and for this reason the security forces seek every opportunity to prevent it,” the source said.
The interlocutor of Izvestiya also stressed that Russian representatives, involved in the consultations in Geneva, have noted an existence of contradictions between the US Department of State and the US security ministries. In particular, despite the agreement on disclosure of data on location of Syrian terrorist groups, reached by the Russian and US diplomats, the Pentagon has refused to submit relevant information to the Russian side.

As First Deputy Chairman of the Council of the Federation Committee on Defense and Security, Franz Klintsevich told to the newspaper, Americans test Russian strength and may go for military actions, similar to the one that has been conducted in the area of Deir ez-Zor recently. At the same time he expressed the hope that this situation will not lead to a direct confrontation between Russian and US military.

Confrontation on the Syrian issue between Russia and the US has intensified after the failure of the ceasefire agreement and the beginning of the massive offensive on Aleppo, launched by the pro-government forces, backed up by the Russian Aerospace Forces. In light of these events, spokesman for the US Department of State, John Kirby, even said that Washington is exploring a possibility to stop any contacts with Russia on Syria, as Moscow allegedly does not take any moves to restore the truce in the country. Arguing about possible consequences of such acts, the diplomat came to direct threats.