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An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 10:44pm On Aug 10, 2016
The Ukro-nazis will do anything to provoke a war with Russia and stall or renege on the Minsk Agreement...

[size=18pt]Unforgiving Rhetoric: Vladimir Putin comments on provocation in Crimea - Minsk negotiations now pointless[/size]
Fort Russ, August 10th, 2016
Translated by Tatzhit

Vladimir Putin:

"This is very disturbing. Our security services have prevented penetration of sabotage-reconnaissance group of the Ukraine Ministry of Defense into Crimea. Of course, such actions mean that continuing talks in Normandy format is pointless, especially when it comes to the next meeting in China.

Because, apparently, the people who [violently] seized power in Kiev and continue to usurp it, don’t want negotiations. [snip] Now, instead of looking for ways to settle the conflict peacefully, they decided to try terrorism.

In this regard, I can’t avoid mentioning that we view the recent assassination attempt targeting the head of the Lugansk People's Republic as an [act of terror], same as the current attempt to sneak saboteurs into the territory of Crimea.

I want to point out, I think the media reported it already, that the Russian side took losses. Two soldiers were killed. We certainly won’t excuse such things.

But I would like to also address our American, European partners. I think that by now it is obvious for all involved that the current Kiev authorities are not looking to solve problems through negotiation. Now they escalate to acts of terror. That is very concerning.

At first glance, what we just saw in Crimea seems to be a stupid and criminal act. It’s stupid, because it is impossible to regain the trust of Crimean population that way. And it’s criminal, because people have died.

But I think that the underlying situation is even more alarming. Because there is nothing to be gained from such attacks, except to distract their own people from the ruined Ukrainian economy, from the plight of many ordinary Ukrainians – that is the only reason.

Trying to provoke violence and conflict can only serve to divert public attention from those who seized power in Kiev, and still continue to usurp it and continue to rob their own people. [They’re playing dangerous games] in order to stay in power as long as possible, and loot as much as they possibly can.

But [both] their attempts failed, because their [cronies] turned out to be too incompetent. Of course, we will do everything we can to ensure the safety of infrastructure and citizens, take extra security measures. And I mean serious additional measures. Both technical, and otherwise.


But the most important thing is that those [Western governments] who support the current Kiev authorities must decide - what do they want? Do they want their proxies to continue attempting to provoke us? Or do they still want a real peace agreement? And if they still actually want it, I really hope that they finally take some real steps to provide necessary pressure on the current government in Kiev."

Actual speech (in Russian):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7OpSeOtYnU


Report on the details of provocation:
Fort Russ - FSB blames Ukrainian Defense Ministry for foiled terrorist plot in Crimea

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 10:48pm On Aug 10, 2016
[size=18pt]FSB blames Ukrainian Defense Ministry for foiled terrorist plot in Crimea[/size]


August 10, 2016

FSB.ru

Press Release


Translated by Kristina Kharlova



FSB prevented terrorist acts in Republic of Crimea prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine



The Federal security service of Russian Federation prevented terrorist acts in Republic of Crimea prepared by the Main intelligence department of the Ministry of defense of Ukraine, targeting critical elements of infrastructure and life support of the peninsula.


The purpose of sabotage and terrorist acts was to destabilize the socio-political situation in the region during the period of preparation and the process of elections of federal and regional authorities.


As a result of the investigation activities on the night of 6th to 7th August 2016 near the city of Armyansk, Republic of Crimea, a group of saboteurs was discovered. During the arrest of terrorists an employee of FSB of Russia was killed in a firefight. On the site of the clashes the following evidence was found: 20 improvised explosive devices with total capacity of more than 40 kilograms of TNT, ammunition and special means of initiation, regular antipersonnel and magnetic mines as well as grenades and special weapons used by special units of the armed forces of Ukraine.

Measures were taken on the territory of Crimean peninsula to liquidate a network of agents of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Armed forces of Ukraine. Detained persons were citizens of Ukraine and Russian Federation, assisting in the preparation of terrorist acts, who had confessed. One of the organizers of the prevented acts of terrorism is Panov Evgeniy Aleksandrovich, 1977 year of birth, the inhabitant of the Zaporozhye region, the employee of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine, who was detained and has confessed.

On the night of the 8th of August 2016 special forces of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine carried out two attempts of a breakthrough by sabotage and terrorist groups, which were prevented by law enforcement units of the Russian FSB and other involved agencies. Breakthrough was attempted under the cover of a massive attack from the neighboring state [Ukraine - FR] involving armored vehicles of Ukrainian armed forces. During the firefight, a soldier of the Defense Ministry of Russian Federation was killed.

Based on the results of the investigative and combat operations, the investigative department of the FSB of Russia in the Republic of Crimea and city of Sevastopol opened a criminal case. Additional operational activities and investigation are conducted.

Additional security measures were taken in places of public gatherings and recreation, and also for the protection of critical infrastructure. Security at the border with Ukraine has been strengthened.

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 6:12pm On Aug 11, 2016
[img]http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/ukrainian-president-petro-poroshenko-wearing-a-military-fatigue-a-picture-id451859334[/img]
[size=18pt]Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko preparing to attack Donbass and Crimea[/size]


ALEXANDER MERCOURIS
1 hour ago 0 152
Despite angry rhetoric, private calls for restraint from the West likely to prevent war, though situation remains extremely dangerous.
In the aftermath of the shoot outs in Crimea the Russian and Ukrainian Presidents, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, have met with their higher political and military leaderships.



Putin’s meeting took the form of a plenary meeting of Russia’s Security Council, the body which was partially and hurriedly convened on Monday. Poroshenko’s meeting was with the Ukraine’s National and Security Council, a body that has a similar name to Russia’s Security Council but which does not have the same all-encompassing powers, and whose remit is far more narrowly restricted to defence and security questions.

Poroshenko has also put the Ukrainian military in Donbass and along the border with Crimea on alert. He is also trying to contact the US and European leaderships to gain their support. It is a certainty that over the next few hours ritual statements of support for Ukraine and criticisms and warnings to Russia will indeed come from the US and European leaderships.

Putting aside all the rhetoric, will these latest moves result in war between Russia and Ukraine in Crimea, and between Ukraine and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics in the Donbass?

Two things first need to be said. Firstly the idea that there is peace in the Donbass is a myth. Fighting goes on there every day on the contact line with the Ukrainian military regularly shelling militia positions and the militia shelling the Ukrainian military in return. Firefights happen continuously At the beginning of July Ukraine admitted losing 80 of its soldiers in fighting in the Donbass in the course of just one week, whilst towards the end of July Ukraine admitted losing 6 of its soldiers in a single clash on just one day. Secondly the political situation in Ukraine is so unstable and the anti-Russian atmosphere there is so strong that it would be foolish to count on Ukraine showing any sort of restraint. War is therefore unfortunately a very real possibility.

On balance however I doubt it will happen. The Kremlin’s brief summary of Putin’s meeting with the Security Council speaks only of discussions for “additional security measures and critical infrastructure protection in Crimea” and of a detailed review of “scenarios of counter-terrorism security measures along the land border, offshore and in Crimea’s air space.” That suggests that the Russians are only looking at tighter security measures within Crimea itself, and that they at least have no plans to start a wider war. That would of course be consistent with the whole approach the Russians have been taking ever since the Ukrainian conflict began in 2014.

As for Ukraine, though there are undoubtedly individuals there who are fully capable of starting a war and who show every indication of wanting to do so, I personally doubt that in the end Ukraine will take the plunge and go to war. Behind the ritual statements of support I expect both the US and the Europeans in private to be urging Ukraine to show restraint for two reasons: firstly, because whatever they may pretend in public I am sure they have guessed the truth that it is the Russian account of the Crimean incident which is true; and secondly and far more importantly because they know that in any war between Ukraine and Russia – or even between Ukraine and the two People’s Republics of the Donbass – Ukraine would lose.

Obama certainly does not want another defeat in Ukraine in the middle of a US Presidential election campaign on his hands, especially since this would probably play into the hands of Donald Trump, though unfortunately the same cannot be said of some of the more psychopathic individuals who support Hillary Clinton, who seem to be yearning for confrontation with Russia on just about any pretext. More to the point I just cannot imagine that Angela Merkel, facing criticism in Germany for her open-door refugee policy and with her anti-Russian policy coming under growing criticism from the SPD, the CSU and the German business community, wants another debacle in Ukraine on her hands.

In fact I suspect that some people both in the US and Europe are privately furious with the Ukrainians for landing them in this mess, whatever they may feel obliged to say in public. Whether or ot that is so I expect that the telephone lines between Western capitals and Kiev are currently burning with urgent calls for restraint. Despite the strength of the war party in Kiev I doubt that the Ukrainian authorities in the end feel strong enough to disregard these calls.

There will be dismay in Europe over something else. The Europeans have stupidly linked the lifting of sanctions against Russia to the full implementation of the Minsk II Accords notwithstanding that they know perfectly well that it is Kiev not Moscow which is not honouring them. The whole premise of this foolish step was that it would pressure Moscow to make concessions. In the event not only has Moscow failed to make any concessions but Putin has now called off the next Normandy Four meeting, which was supposed to review progress in implementing the Minsk II Accords. With growing public anger in Europe over the sanctions there must now be panic on the part of some European leaders that the Russians may be prepared to walk away from the whole Minsk II process – which they foolishly linked the sanctions to – leaving these same European leaders high and dry.

Just as I suspect that the telephone lines between Kiev and Western capitals are currently burning with calls for restraint, so I suspect that the telephone lines between Moscow and Western capitals are also burning with urgent calls to the Russians to modify and explain their new hard line and to recommit to the Normandy Four format. I would not be surprised if the Russians in return are being given private assurances that the Western powers will act to prevent Kiev doing what it tried to do in Crimea ever again. Whether of course the Russians would believe those assurances is another matter.

Having said all this I want to repeat again that the situation remains extremely dangerous. Ultimately any decision for war or peace lies with Kiev. No one in their senses would place any firm reliance on Kiev doing the sane thing. The next few days or hours will decide the issue
Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by Nobody: 9:44pm On Aug 11, 2016
WW3 will erupt either in Syria or Ukraine.

I just hope Petro Diesel Poroshenko is fully prepared. grin

Watch how Poroshenko was humiliated in Crimea below. grin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcFAn0i3br4

Sai Putin! grin

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 1:27pm On Aug 12, 2016
[size=18pt]Putin throws down the gauntlet - takes aim at US, calls Poroshenko ''puppet" [+Video][/size]
August 11th, 2016 - Fort Russ News -
- R&U Vid - J. Flores with R. Quintanilla



Video Below



The Russian Federal Security Service prevented terrorist attacks in the Crimea, planned by the General Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine.


A surprising public statement

In yesterday's public statement, which took many by surprise, Russian President Putin has thrown down the gauntlet, and openly revealed Moscow's actual assessment: The present government in Ukraine is illegitimate, was installed by a violent coup backed by the US, and Poroshenko is but a puppet of the US, who acts both blindly and foolishly in carrying out acts of terrorism against the Russian Federation.

Putin also went on to characterize the assassination attempt upon the life of Igor Plotnitsky, head of the Lugansk People's Republic, as an act of terrorism. While it is consistent with Russia's policy to date to consider any acts of violence against the Russian Federation directly as an illegal aggravation, this is the first time since 2014 that Putin has characterized violence against Novorossiyan leadership as a de facto 'international' event (as opposed to an internal police action within Ukraine), and of terrorism at that.

In light of all of this, Putin publicly expresses something almost approximating incredulity, that Poroshenko cannot create a rational policy on Russia. Is he simply envious of Putin's successes in the many countries he deals with, including in the EU and the US, and their sanctions? Putin clarifies, of course, that it is because Poroshenko is but a puppet, entirely beholden to the US who placed him in power following a violent and illegal coup.




Ukraine and Russia both make military moves

Poroshenko now has Ukrainian troops at maximum alert over this Crimea incident on Russian borders, after being caught red handed with terrorist plans by the FSB. Immediately after this Putin has stated that the Minsk agreements, because of Ukrainian actions, are senseless and without value, and - apparently - there is no need to have any further talks.

This is a pressure point for Europe and Ukraine who immediately said it is ready (again?) to "talk" on the subject.



But the west might have turned the key to infuriate Russia, and make Putin's Russia an open weapons supplier for Donbass, missiles and all. Ukrainian soldiers know - because everybody knows - that they would go to a certain death and no one believes their families are in any way happy about this. The military answer the Donbass gave to Ukraine with the militia surprised the world. That militia is now gone and instead they have an even better, professional army, declared to the public openly on Victory Day of 2015, supplied and supported by Russia. The results have been outstanding for the Donbass, winning every battle brought to them by Ukraine.

We also cannot overlook the fact that on August 8th, just days before this announcement, we reported the following:

Russia has just moved four divisions, nine brigades and 22 regiments along with two missile brigades with complexes "Iskander-M" into the south-west of the Russia, toward Ukraine, under Shoigu's orders.


The Ukrainian army is preparing for a new offensive in the Donbass, Russia's permanent representative to the UN Vitaly Churkin said recently. Typically, high-ranking officials don not give such warnings unless they are based on carefully gathered intelligence. Churkin is no exception.

Therefore, it is difficult not to conclude that these events are connected.

In this case, Russia is using a pretext - which in the grand scheme of things may even seem a bit small (two soldiers killed at a border shootout) - to take the initiative in the information/media war, and give themselves a publicly moral footing for something which, clearly, has been planned in response to Ukraine's army build up, which even Churkin just publicly raised at the UN.

The situation on the ground

Ukraine's society is desperate, broke, humiliated by the EU, with their necks under a very repressive government who has broken all of the few promises of wealth and greatness promised during the Maidan coup.

The Donbass is ready, alert, alive and ready to fight, as the few videos we get show a society that is under serious pressure from this war and Ukrainian terrorism, but still looking forward to a better future, and hope for a final victory against a derailed Ukraine, that today is totally erroneous in the plans they have for the Donbass region.

[video]


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie6xrZ7-CoQ

All the events over the last several weeks are likely to be all connected

It is much more common for Putin to speak softly, and carry a big stick. This Teddy Roosevelt approach to geostrategy has worked well for him, even if superficially pro-Russian detractors and critics would like him to engage in fare more chest beating than would be appropriate for a statesmen having this level of caliber and international respect.

This is why yesterday's statement can only be interpreted as an ultimatum that will be followed by some no-doubt history making, and serious action.

It is important to take note that Putin makes this address following his bi-lateral talks with Serzh Sargsyan, President of Armenia. The context of this is a week of high-level and historical meetings with the leaders of Iran and Azerbaijan in Baku, followed by a serious agreement on ending sanctions and energy market development with Erdogan.

But what was discussed behind closed doors is something that may not be known for decades to come, if ever. It is likely, regardless of official statements and claims, that these meetings included the status of the CSTO, Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan, and Turkey's relationship both with that and the Eurasian Union.

There have been any number of provocations, including the shelling of Russian support positions, by the Ukrainian Army, on Russian territory, which Putin could have seized as a pretext to make the sort of definitive and game-changing statement that he made today.

This leads us to conclude that this weeks meetings, the possibility of a shift in Turkey's orientation (or at least triangulation), and the failures of the US's side at Aleppo this past week, are all factors which contribute to the timing of this major statement.

The US also may have timed the provocation itself, perhaps to escalate tensions with Russia in the run-up to the elections. It would perhaps bode poorly for Trump if a heated or even hot exchange with Russia made Ukraine a major focus, and was the focus of media during an election where clearly Clinton is favored among imperialists and hawks.

This would certainly distract from the US failures to topple the government in Syria, and would also detract from Russia's successes against terrorist groups there, which the US (despite their actual aims at arming said terrorists) has apparently 'failed' to make any traction against.

Russia is certainly in the position to take all of Ukraine, if this was their short-term or immediate goal. But the consequences would only result in a diplomatic disaster, and would nix whatever progress Russia has made in softening up Europe's attitude to Russia and sanctions. Despite much news coverage on the subject, Russia has been able to make some significant progress in the economic sphere in relation to European banking, and has already struck deals with numerous EU states which, only technically, work around the existing sanctions.

For these reasons, we should expect a response from Russia that is aimed at making an example of the Ukrainian regime over its recent provocation, while at the same time doing so in a fashion which carries forward their long-term diplomatic aim of keeping at least a portion of European elites skeptical of (and hedging against) Trans-Atlantic designs on Russia.

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 1:40pm On Aug 12, 2016
[size=18pt]Two moves ahead: Russia refuses to slip into Ukrainian trap[/size]
August 11, 2016 -
By Eduard Popov for Fort Russ
Translated by J. Arnoldski



A few hours ago, a meeting of the UN Security Council, urgently convened in connection to Ukraine’s saboteur attacks on the territory of Russian Crimea, came to a close. The session was convened on Ukraine’s initiative, which is something of a strange incident. Usually, the injured side is the one to initiate such a meeting. In this case, the offended party is Russia, two of whose officers were killed at the hands of Ukrainian terrorists. Either Ukrainian diplomats turned out to be more agile than the Russians, or the convening of the UN Security Council session was merely a debriefing session. In my opinion, the second version appears to be more relevant. It is of even greater importance that the session was a closed one, which gives rise to even more anxiety.

As Russia’s permanent UN representative, Vitaly Churkin, stated, the meeting was useful for Russia insofar as it offered the opportunity to convey to other countries comprehensive information on the incident in Crimea. At the same time, the diplomat did not limit himself to merely informing his foreign colleagues about the Crimean incident, but also brought forth the Russian point of view on events in Donbass. Churkin advised the Ukrainian government to cease the conflict in Donbass and “stop shelling civilians.”

Currently known information on the UN Security Council meeting is quite limited. Nevertheless, some conclusions can be drawn and some previously made predications can be reinforced.

1. Today in an interview for a Russian publication, I expressed the opinion that there will be no war with Ukraine at this stage. I posited that the words of Churkin quite clearly confirm this view. Despite all the negative perceptions of the Ukrainian leadership as now even being “terrorist,” Russia is still ready (or compelled) to negotiate with it. Many hot heads in Russia will be disappointed with such restraint on the part of Russian diplomacy. But I believe that this is the only reasonable behavior to have in such an uncertain situation. The plans of the terrorist attacks’ organizers included a lavish display of the Ukrainian side’s intentions with shooting from Ukrainian territory and the shelling of Russian soldiers. There would have been no need for deliberate demonstrativeness, as the terrorist attack itself would have been arranged quietly and then, the organizers of the attack (obviously not Ukrainians, but useful tools in foreign hands) hoped for an emotional reaction from Russia.

Society has indeed expressed its frustration and replied with calls to punish Ukraine up to the point of sending in Russian troops. However, Russia’s political and military leadership has turned out to be more restrained and does not wish to act in a way predictable for the opponent, or play according to their rules. There is the danger of a direct military clash between Russia and Ukraine, but it is minimal. Otherwise, there would have already been such a war. That a war of this sort hasn’t been started yet is exclusively the merit of Russia, despite Ukraine’s efforts.

2. Vitaly Churkin’s words linked the incident in Crimea to the situation in Donbass while simultaneously appealing to Russia’s European partners’ opinions. Russia, as a victim of Ukrainian terrorism, is hoping for understanding on the part of its Western partners from the Normandy Quartet, who are supposed to put pressure on the Kiev regime. However, the recent statement by the French Foreign Ministry urging the conflicting parties to come to a peaceful agreement leaves little chance that the West will cooperate. The US State Department has supported all of Ukraine’s actions without “noticing” their terrorist character.

We can only guess what specific actions the Russian side will subsequently take against Ukraine if Kiev violates the ceasefire in Donbass. Judging by Vladimir Putin’s statements, Russia could abandon the Normandy Format. Without a doubt, the negotiation process over Donbass would continue in some kind of new form, either without Ukraine’s participation, or with strict control over its actions in Crimea. Admittedly, it is difficult to speak of an specifics on this question.


3. Despite the patience of President Putin and Russian diplomacy, a war with Ukraine seems to be only a matter of time away. Ukraine itself is deliberately provoking Russia to take this step. On August 11th, the holding of military exercises in Southern Ukraine and marine corps’ exercises were announced and Poroshenko gave the order to put troops in a state of high alert and move them up to the border of Russian Crimea. This is a game of muscle-flexing and a provocation against Russia. According to Chekhov’s famous play, if a gun hangs on the wall in the first act, then it will necessarily be shot in the last.

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 3:09pm On Aug 12, 2016
Latest, News

[size=18pt]Shootout in Crimea: Russia’s FSB vs Ukrainian Saboteurs[/size]

Alexander Mercouris
ALEXANDER MERCOURIS
1 day ago 2 510
The FSB interception of Ukrainian sabotage groups attempting to infiltrate Crimea raise tensions.
Anyone who has been following Ukraine related news over the last few days will be aware of reports of Russian troop movements in Crimea, of a shoot out there between the Russian security forces and alleged Ukrainian infiltrators which left several people dead, and of claims that Ukrainian sabotage groups had attempted to infiltrate the peninsula.



On 10th August 2016 came final confirmation of the incident from Russia’s counterintelligence and anti terrorism agency, the FSB (full statement attached below). It reported separate incidents involving three Ukrainian sabotage groups connected to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, shoot outs between FSB operatives and the Russian military and the Ukrainian military across the border line, and the deaths of one FSB operative and of one Russian soldier caught up in the shoot outs. Other reports speak of the death of at least two Ukrainian infiltrators, and of the capture of several others, which claims however the FSB report does not confirm. The FSB report does however speak of twenty improvised explosive devices containing more than 40 kilograms of TNT equivalent, ammunition, fuses, antipersonnel and magnetic bombs, grenades and the Ukrainian armed forces’ standard special weapons being found in one of the locations involved in the incident.

The FSB report also says that several Ukrainian and Russian citizens belonging to an undercover spy ring operating inside Crimea have been arrested on charges of planning to help the saboteurs. The FSB has named the ringleader as Yevgeny Panov, a resident of Ukraine’s Zaporozhye region born in 1977, who the FSB says is an employee of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate. Presumably he has been working in Crimea for some time under cover. The FSB says it has arrested him and that he is “giving evidence”.

The FSB has not identified the targets of the saboteurs other than saying that they were “critical infrastructure and life support facilities on the peninsula”. Some Russian media reports have suggested that the intention was to create “false flag” incidents that would set Crimea’s Tatar and Russian communities against each other. The reference to “critical infrastructure and life support facilities on the peninsula” does not however support this. Rather it suggests an attempt to disrupt power supplies and possibly water treatment plants at the height of Crimea’s tourist season and on the eve of the elections.

The Ukrainians for their part deny all these allegations, claiming that the whole incident has been invented by the Russians. The Western media, predictably enough, is following the Ukrainian line with wild speculations that the Russians have fabricated the whole incident in order to justify a Russian invasion of Ukraine during the Olympic Games.

Whilst the full truth of this incident will only become known over time – when or if people like Panov are put on trial – there is actually no reason to doubt that the Russian account is true. The Russians are hardly likely to arrange the death of one of their own FSB operatives and of one of their soldiers in order to fabricate an incident like this, and the report of the capture of several of the saboteurs, and the confirmation of the arrest of the members of the spy ring which was created to support them, all but confirms that the Russian claims about this incident are true. Indeed given that Ukrainian leaders frequently speak of Ukraine being at war with Russia it is not difficult to see why they might authorise a sabotage mission of this sort in order to disrupt elections which would confirm the extent of Crimea’s integration into Russia. Presumably the Ukrainian plan was to claim that the attacks were the result of local anti-Russian resistance cells, thereby fostering the fiction that there is opposition within Crimea to its unification with Russia. It has been a cause of serious embarrassment to the Ukrainian leadership and its Western backers that there has been no real evidence of such opposition up to now. The sabotage mission appears to have been intended to “correct” this.

Two days ago I reported about a meeting Putin had with his security chiefs which appeared to have been hurriedly convened in a secret location. I speculated that the meeting was held to discuss the situation in Aleppo. Whilst Aleppo undoubtedly was discussed at this meeting as shown by the presence of Foreign Minister Lavrov and the Kremlin’s account of the meeting – which referred to Putin’s forthcoming meetings with foreign leaders, of whom the two most important were President Erdogan of Turkey and President Rouhani of Iran with whom the topic of Syria and Aleppo would certainly be discussed – the meeting between Putin and his security chiefs undoubtedly also discussed the situation in Crimea, and the reports of the Ukrainian sabotage mission there.

Might there have been any other purpose to this Ukrainian sabotage mission other than to create the appearance of instability in Crimea during the tourist season and during the coming election season? Putin in the joint press conference he held in Moscow following his meeting with Armenia’s President Sargsyan linked the incident to the attempted murder of Igor Plotnitsky, the leader of the Lugansk People’s Republic. If true that would suggest that having despaired of a military victory the government in Kiev is now turning to assassination and sabotage tactics in order to keep the struggle with Russia going and to achieve its political goals. Alternatively it could be that the Ukrainians have carried out these operations in preparation for the summer offensive in the Donbass that has been much talked about but which has yet to happen, though it is not clear how planting bombs in Crimea could aid a military offensive in the Donbass. Yet another explanation is that the Ukrainians might be sensing a weakening in European support and might have launched the operation in order to heighten tensions and to rally support and to further undermine the Minsk II peace process.

My own opinion is that the most likely explanation for this frankly reckless action – which will cause serious embarrassment to some of Ukraine’s European backers even if they are not prepared to say so publicly – is the chaotic condition of the Ukrainian power structure and the perennial infighting that goes on there. Given the luridly romantic language many members of the Maidan movement customarily like to indulge in I can easily see how the sabotage operation in Crimea and the murder attempt on Plotnitsky – if the two are indeed connected – might have been planned by individuals in Kiev who might think that the success of such operations would increase their credibility and popularity within the Maidan movement and therefore their chances of achieving political success in Ukraine.

Whatever the precise motivations behind this incident Putin has made it very clear that the Russians are taking it extremely seriously. He has already said that there will no Normandy Four meeting with Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko at the forthcoming G20 summit in China. Moreover and in contrast to what happened following the trial of Savchenko, whose actions were carried out in the Donbass and therefore in territory the Russians continue to recognise as Ukrainian, I expect the Russians to be much slower to agree to prisoner exchanges of the Ukrainian operatives who were involved in this mission and who they accuse of carrying out or planning to carry out violent actions on Russian territory.

Here is the text of the statement describing the incidents which has been provided by the FSB:

“The Russian FSB averted terrorist acts in the Republic of Crimea that were being prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
The Russian FSB averted terrorist acts in the Republic of Crimea that were being prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, and which targeted certain critical infrastructure and life support facilities on the peninsula.
The goal of the attacks was the destabilisation of the socio-political situation on the peninsula prior to the approaching elections to the federal and regional governmental institutions.
The search operations carried out during the night of 6/7 August 2016 in the vicinity of the city of Armyansk, Republic of Crimea, uncovered a group of saboteurs. While attempting to detain the terrorists, an FSB operative was killed by enemy gunfire. The following was discovered on the scene: 20 improvised explosive devices with a total explosive power of 40kg TNT, munitions, special detonators, standard-issue anti-personnel and magnetic land mines, grenades, and special-issue weapons used by Ukrainian armed forces’ special operations units.
The follow-on measures on the territory of the Republic of Crimea eliminated a network of agents operated by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian and Russian citizens, engaged in the preparation of terrorist attacks, were arrested, and are now giving evidence. One of the organisers is Yevgeniy Aleksandrovich Panov, born 1977, an inhabitant of the Zaporozhye Region of Ukraine, an operative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukrainian MOD, who has also been arrested and is giving evidence.
During the night of August 8, 2016, Ukrainian MOD special operations units attempted two more infiltrations by saboteur units which were prevented by the armed units of the FSB and collaborating entities. The infiltration effort was covered by heavy fire from the adjacent country, including by armored vehicles belonging to Ukrainian military. A Russian soldier was killed by the fire.
On the basis of the investigative and combat actions, the Crimea FSB Directorate’s investigations department has launched a criminal case. Additional investigative measures are being implemented. Places where large groups of tourists are concentrating and resting, and critically important infrastructure and life support facilities have been taken under additional security. A strengthened border control regime has been introduced on the border with Ukraine.”

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by Nobody: 1:26am On Aug 13, 2016
Guys, you all need to see this write-up. I'm sorry I couldn't paste it here for fear of being banned by the anti-spam bot.

I have said it times without number that Amerika will plunge the world into a nuclear armageddon.

“Hacked Emails Reveal NATO General Plotting Against Obama on Russian Policy.”

https://theintercept.com/2016/07/01/nato-general-emails/?comments=1#comments

One more thing, do not forget to read the comments at the bottom of that page - Hilarious! grin

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 12:53pm On Aug 13, 2016
These Ukronazis apparently chat a lot both when taunting Russia AND when confessing to acts of sabotage.

This captured Panov fella they say is singing like a bird

Surely even the rest must be getting tied of


Kiev confirms Yevgeny Panov detained in Crimea is Ukrainian citizen

August 11, “Panov was detained on suspicion of preparing and attempting terrorist attacks in Crimea

KIEV, August 11. /TASS/. Yevgeny Panov detained on suspicion of organizing terrorist attacks in Crimea is a Ukrainian national, a spokesman for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, Oleg Slobodyan, told a news conference on Thursday.

According to the FSB, one of the organizers of the planned terrorist attacks was Yevgeny Panov, a resident of Ukraine’s Zaporozhye region born in 1977, an employee of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s main intelligence directorate who was detained as well and is giving a confession.

The Russian Federal Security Service reported on Wednesday that it had spotted and detained a group of Ukrainian saboteurs overnight to August 7 near the city of Armyansk (Crimea) and that it had prevented terrorist attacks in Crimea prepared by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s main intelligence directorate. Their planned targets were critically important infrastructure and life support facilities. Twenty improvised explosive devices containing more than 40 kilograms of TNT equivalent, ammunition, fuses, antipersonnel and magnetic bombs, grenades and the Ukrainian armed forces’ standard special weapons were found at the scene, the FSB said.”

Russia: FSB says Ukrainian detainee Yevgeny Panov admitted plotting attacks in Crimea


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSlFtPkyeIE



Published on Aug 11, 2016

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested a Ukrainian man in Simferopol, Thursday, on suspicion of organising terrorist attacks on the territory of Crimea. The suspect was identified as Evgeni Panov, a resident of Zaporozhye region in southern Ukraine. According to the FSB, Panov has pleaded guilty to plotting the attacks in Crimea.

SOT, Official (Russian): “What is your relation to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine?”

Evgeni Panov, Suspect (Russian): “I was invited to Kiev [*JUMP CUT AT SOURCE*] … I was told that a group was being organised for carrying out sabotage actions on the territory of Crimea.”

*JUMP CUT AT SOURCE*

SOT, Official (Russian): “Who were the members of the group?”

Evgeni Panov, Suspect (Russian): “The group included staff officers of the Ukrainian military intelligence. Members of the group were Alexander Kirillov with the call name ‘Kiril’; staff officer Dmitri Semyanin; Oleg Petrenko with the call name ‘Fox’; Aleksei Sandil with the call name ‘Sai’; as well as a man with the call name ‘Deshek’; and myself. The staff officers were Aleksei Sandil who holds the rank of lieutenant; Vladimir Serdyuk – captain, Dmitri and [Alexander] Kirillov were also officers, but I am not aware of their titles.” *JUMP CUT AT SOURCE*

SOT, Official (Russian): “What is the role of the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence in this operation?”

Evgeni Panov, Suspect (Russian): “As far as I know, this operation was planned by the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence with the help of its staff officers.”

*JUMP CUT AT SOURCE*

SOT, Evgeni Panov, Suspect (Russian): “I understood the risk of this operation. According to my sources, an explosion of military hardware of the Russian Ministry of Defence was expected. Of course, there was a risk of a high death toll.”

*JUMP CUT AT SOURCE*

Video on Demand:

Russia: Ukrainian detainee Ridvan Suleymanov tells of alleged plan to bomb Simferopol airport



Published on Aug 12, 2016

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested a Ukrainian man in Simferopol, Friday, on suspicion of organising planned terrorist attacks on the territory of Crimea. The suspect was identified as Ridvan Suleymanov, a resident of the Zaporozhye region in southern Ukraine, who was allegedly recruited by the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence in October 2015.

SOT, Ridvan Suleymanov, alleged agent of the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (Russian): “I went to Simferopol airport on July 30 where I contacted Pavel Nikolaevich and informed him that I was in position and had successfully planted the bomb. He texted me an ‘+’ which meant that I should wait until they contacted me with a conference call with the police.

I walked around, waited and then they phoned me. During the conference call I heard something that shocked me: ‘I’m Amir Karimov. Today other brothers and I are turning from a small to a big jihad. Promptly at 12 o’clock we will blow up the central airport of the city of Simferopol and also the central bus stations of Simferopol, Yalta and Sevastopol and the Kerch Strait ferry line.’

After that I went directly to the airport to monitor the reaction of law enforcement agencies. I took five photos and sent them to him through the ‘Line’ app. After that I was arrested by the law enforcement agency.”

Russia: FSB seize explosives allegedly earmarked for Crimea attack [Thanks, Baaz, for links]


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juazt5uPa3g

On August 11th, the Russia’s MID (Foreign Ministry) issued a statement

STATEMENT BY THE FOREIGN MINISTRY OF RUSSIA on terror attacks in Crimea




Terrorists’ Plans

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR MOU) was preparing to target the Russian peninsula’s critical infrastructure, the FSB announced on Wednesday.

A group of infiltrators was discovered near the town of Armyansk in northern Crimea near the Ukrainian border in a special FSB operation over the weekend, the agency said, adding that fire was exchanged as the terrorists were being apprehended.

The infiltrators also planned to blow up a highway in the region at the time motorcades with local officials and federal authorities would have been driving through it.

Arrested officer of the Ukraine’s military intelligence Panov: “Oil depots, ferry lines and chemical plants were the targets of our sabotage operation



Ukrainian terrorist Panov has also admitted to take a part in punitive criminal actions against civilians in Donbas, so called “ATO”

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by Nobody: 2:16pm On Aug 13, 2016
Anti-Spam bot don fire Nairaminted - sorry comrade! grin

Seun, Mynd44 - Do something about the bot, it's getting really annoying.

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by scully95: 5:52pm On Aug 13, 2016
nice update..thanks and please keep updating the post..

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 12:08pm On Aug 14, 2016
Zoharariel:
Anti-Spam bot don fire Nairaminted - sorry comrade! grin

Seun, Mynd44 - Do something about the bot, it's getting really annoying.

Thanks my man and fellow soldier - and even greater thanks to the mods for unblocking and even allowing the post (albeit incomplete) to stand. The Ant-spam BOT can really get on your nerves sometimes but I guess even the mods themselves are feeling the gospel that we share on here so they had to let the post stand. wink

And since I can't edit that same post again lest the Anti-SPAM BOT kicks in again, I'll just post the remaining parts/amendments right here:

These Ukronazis apparently chat a lot when taunting Russia AND when confessing to acts of sabotage. cheesy

This captured Panov fella they say is singing like a bird

Surely even the rest of Europe must be getting tied of these crazies






Ukrainian terrorist Panov has also admitted to take a part in punitive criminal actions against civilians in Donbas, so called “ATO”

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Re: An Escalation Is Imminent In The Crimean Peninsula by NairaMinted: 12:07am On Aug 15, 2016
I present to you another Kremlin bot, Senator Ron Paul!

[size=18pt]Ron Paul says ‘CIA involved’ in government overthrow in Ukraine, war brewing over Crimea (VIDEO)[/size]


VLADIMIR RODZIANKO

15 hours ago 4 337
Ron Paul and Daniel McAdams skillfully dissect the latest storm clouds hanging over Crimea.

As Ron Paul and Daniel McAdams correctly point out, the whole crisis originates from the U.S. backed overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 , Ukraine’s constitutional and democratically elected President. The U.S. backed regime that seized power in Ukraine as a result of this coup has pursued a militantly anti-Russian line, provoking the secession of Crimea and Russia’s actions there. Though this has created a crisis on Russia’s border in an area where the U.S. has no direct interest, the U.S. continues to meddle, fanning tensions and internationalizing the problem.



From the Ron Paul Liberty Report:

Russia claims to have stopped a sabotage operation by Ukraine’s intelligence service. Ukraine denies the charge and has beefed up the military on its border with Crimea. Is another war brewing? Is the US pushing for it?

A very important point Ron Paul and Daniel McAdams make is that the U.S.’s unqualified backing for the Kiev regime simply encourages it to take the sort of dangerous and reckless actions we have just seen in Crimea. The result is that every attempt to reduce tensions in the area – of which there have been many coming from the Russian side – have come to naught. In Ukraine, as in other places (including Syria – also touched on by Ron Paul and Daniel McAdams in the video) U.S. policy is creating problems, not solving them.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI4U9dB1NN8

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