Nigeria loses top position in GDP to South Africa

South Africa’s economy has regained the position of Africa’s largest in dollar terms more than two years after losing it to Nigeria as the value of the nations’ currencies moved in opposite directions. Based on gross domestic product at the end of 2015 published by the International Monetary Fund, the size of South Africa’s economy is $301 billion at the rand’s current exchange rate, while Nigeria’s GDP is $296 billion. That’s after the rand gained more than 16 percent against the dollar since the start of 2016, and Nigeria’s naira lost more than a third of its value after the central bank removed a currency peg in June. Both nations face the risk of a recession after contracting in the first quarter of the year. The Nigerian economy shrank by 0.4 percent in the three months through March from a year earlier amid low oil prices and output and shortage of foreign currency. That curbed imports, including fuel. In South Africa, GDP contracted by 0.2 percent from a year earlier as farming and mining output declined. “More than the growth outlook, in the short term the ranking of these economies is likely to be determined by exchange rate movements,” Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners LLP, said. Although Nigeria is unlikely to be unseated as Africa’s largest economy in the long run, “the momentum that took it there in the first place is now long gone.” The South African rand rallied as investors turned to emerging markets with liquid capital markets to seek returns after Britain voted to leave the European Union on June 23, even as the central bank forecast the economy won’t expand this year and the nation risks losing its investment-grade credit rating. The ruling African National Congress’s lowest support since 1994 in the August 3 local government vote led to further gains on speculation that it will pressure the party to introduce economic reforms that will boost growth and cut unemployment. In Nigeria, investors did not flock to buy naira-based assets after authorities removed the peg of 197-199 naira per dollar. The Central Bank of Nigeria raised its benchmark interest rate to a record in July to lure foreign money, even as the IMF forecast the economy will contract 1.8 percent this year. Nigeria was assessed as the continent’s largest economy in April 2014 when authorities overhauled its GDP data for the first time in two decades. The recalculation saw the Nigerian economy in 2013 expand by three-quarters to an estimated N80 trillion. The rand gained 1 percent to 13.2805 per dollar at 4:03 p.m. in Johannesburg on Wednesday. The naira weakened 2.7 percent to N320 per dollar.

Read more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/08/nigeria-loses-top-position-gdp-south-africa/

This was bound to happen,,,,with Buhari's clueless govt's no economic blue print whatsoever,spiralling inflation,near zero etc

Congratulations to the dullard,this is one of his achievements

Thank God for FP...

Better to d matter...it's something expected due to the negative trend of the economy.

God bless Nigeria

Regards
Elijahsinto.

It is not a small something

God help nigeria

Congrats President Buhari

maryjan8:
God help nigeria

Help which Nigeria? Dem talk am clear say heaven dey help those who help demselves o....

buhari should just....... who go help me finish up? make i piss i dey come

Ok oooo

kossyablaze:
Congrats President Buhari

Jesu Kreste Na congrats Dullardinh0 I bn write na.... Nairaland y?

onyepapa:
buhari should just....... who go help me finish up? make i piss i dey come

DIE

Who gives a _fuck? When we were above them did it make any difference to the nigerian masses?

Abeg make person hear word!

Funlordjnr:
Who gives a _fuck? When we were above them did it make any difference to the nigerian masses?

Abeg make person hear word!

Are you okay?

chemicalDisease:


Are you okay?

Yep! But I know you are not! Is that not why part of your name is disease?

Funlordjnr:
Who gives a _fuck? When we were above them did it make any difference to the nigerian masses?

Abeg make person hear word!

there was difference, I now buy a cup of garri at N100.

Even my security guard expected this, just that it came quite early than we bargained for.


All hail General Cassandra, the economic terrorist. He did in 1985 and doing it in 2015 again.

He would av sold Nigeria to South Africa by 2019.

Funlordjnr:
Who gives a _fuck? When we were above them did it make any difference to the nigerian masses?

Abeg make person hear word!

U know who gives a f_uck?
Market woman buying a liter of kerosene at N220
Meguard buying a sachet of pure water at N10 with a N10k monthly income
A minimum wage earner buying a half bag of rice at N10k with N18k income
A farmer in the village being charged more for transporting his produce because petrol increased from N87 to N145.
And all these people have one thing in common- they have all become poorer because half of their networth has been wiped off!!

Abeg. Which top position? Was it about the propaganda being circulated then?

With all the cries and national anthem by Jonathan and okonjo that we were broke and borrowed to pay money?

We were never ahead of republic if Benin talkless of crossing to garbon!

Funlordjnr:
Who gives a _fuck? When we were above them did it make any difference to the nigerian masses?

Abeg make person hear word!

I now buy fuel, 145 after suffering about 6months of scarcity.
Rice, Tomatoe, Garri and all the price of imported goods shooting up.

Some people av withdrawn their kids from school abroad cos of high dollar.
Businesses collapsed.
About a million sacked.

Do u still want more differences?

I think South Africa deserves that top position. We all know our being at the top in GDP is just for formality sake. What is the essence of being at the top when it does not reflect on the lives of the citizens.

Nigeria shall rise again one day. That day when Buhari will shun sentimental politics and bring on d table any body that has d expertise on hw to move d economy forward irrespective of his or her political affiliation.

Wailers will be like:naija una see una self,shabi we told u all but una say una need change.

Zombies will be like:abegi who has GDP epp?

kossyablaze:
Jesu Kreste Na congrats Dullardinh0 I bn write na.... Nairaland y?

lool!

Another feather to buhari cap

Buhari destroying Jonathans achievements since 2012.

Every day I thank God for not letting buhari become president in 2003 when he first contested. With these kind of government, Nigerians would likely have been surviving on food aid by now. Most likely all forms of growth and development we see now might never have existed


For those saying the growth rate was never true. Ride on deceiving yourself. Every known body in the world has derated Nigeria within the last one year. I guess they are lying but APC is the only saying the truth.

When GEJ was there APC said Fastest growing economy only on paper, abeg APC give us the Paper report too, we need it...... May God scatter una generation for the hardship you guys inflict on Nigerians....


And to those repenting with just a single post claiming forgiveness, May your generation knows no peace until you guys gather back in Slave ground at ojota to sing, dance and wail for this useless govt only then shall you be forgiven...... Westerners #EducatedIlliterate

Hahahahahahaha All hail GEJ!

kossyablaze:
DIE

your head dey there brother!

adconline:

U know who gives a f_uck?
Market woman buying a liter of kerosene at N220
Meguard buying a sachet of pure water at N10 with a N10k monthly income
A minimum wage earner buying a half bag of rice at N10k with N18k income
A farmer in the village being charged more for transporting his produce because petrol increased from N87 to N145.
And all these people have one thing in common- they have all become poorer because half of their networth has been wiped off!!

You naive lots, a high GDP is not a sufficient criteria measuring development. This bullshit sold to you , ignorant Nigerians by PDP has been making the rounds for a long time now. How can you compare a country of over150million people With a GDP of about halve a trillion dollar with that of SA with a population of 70million? GDP per capita which is derived by dividing the total GDP by the total population is the appropriate criteria for measuring the development of an economy. PDP know how badly the Nigerian economy was performing under them hence the reason for selling ignorant Nigerians the highest GDP in Africa crap. Botswana and South Africa are miles ahead and better developed comparison to Nigeria using the correct indices.

Note also that though the situation in the country is very bad (as inflation erodes value) but your analysis of the effect on business owners and salary earners is wrong. The increase in price level affects business men and salary earners differently. If a farmer pays more to transport his products don't you think he would input this cost when selling his wares? Businesses will adjust price to match the current price level but salary earners wont get a pay raise because of an inflation....take note please.

1freshdude:


You naive lots, a high GDP is not a sufficient criteria measuring development. This bullshit sold to you , ignorant Nigerians by PDP has been making the rounds for a long time now. How can you compare a country of over150million people With a GDP of about halve a trillion dollar with that of SA with a population of 70million? GDP per capita which is derived by dividing the total GDP by the total population is the appropriate criteria for measuring the development of an economic. PDP know how the badly Nigerian economy was performing under them hence the reason for selling ignorant Nigerians the highest GDP in Africa crap. Botswana and South Africa are miles ahead and better developed comparison to Nigeria using the correct indices.

Note also that though the situation in the country is very bad (as inflation erodes value) but your analysis is of the effect is wrong as the increase in price level affects business men and salary earners differently. If a farmer pays more to transport his products don't you think he would input this cost when selling his wares? Businesses will adjust price to match the current price level but salary earners wont get a pay raise because of an inflation....take note please.

What an arrogant display of wilful ignorance! When cost of fuel went up by 66%, farmers didn't increase their prices 66%, it would have be impossible to pass all the costs to consumers who are facing inflationary rate of 16% as stated by govt. So the masses are losing their net worth by about 30-50%.
Nigeria economy has lost $150bn of its GPD in dollar terms and folks like you think that this loss comes from the thin air?
A country's GPD per capita decreases when its GDP decreases, so need to keep wallowing in denial.
Please explain your position that high prices of goods with devalued incomes do not have any effect on GDP?? It seems someone didn't take Econs 101 class??
Folks like you think evrything is politics, it's the new "Naija" GDP that this present govt is presenting to IMF, World Bank, China, and US Exim to borrow?? Same number being bandied about by APC governors in highlighting their liquidity, solvency and creditworthy positions to intl lenders? It's what this govt is using to calculate out debt to GDP ratio?? So a dummy was sold to us and your POLITRICKIANS bought it and now selling it to gullible-minded brigands like you??

adconline:

What an arrogant display of wilful ignorance! When cost of fuel went up by 66%, farmers didn't increase their prices 66%, it would have be impossible to pass all the costs to consumers who are facing inflationary rate of 16% as stated by govt. So the masses are losing their net worth by about 30-50%.
Nigeria economy has lost $150bn of its GPD in dollar terms and folks like you think that this loss comes from the thin air?
A country's GPD per capita decreases when its GDP decreases, so need to keep wallowing in denial.
Please explain your position that high prices of goods with devalued incomes do not have any effect on GDP?? It seems someone didn't take Econs 101 class??
Folks like you think evrything is politics, it's the new "Naija" GDP that this present govt is presenting to IMF, World Bank, China, and US Exim to borrow?? Same number being bandied about by APC governors in highlighting their liquidity, solvency and creditworthy positions to intl lenders? It's what this govt is using to calculate out debt to GDP ratio?? So a dummy was sold to us and your POLITRICKIANS bought it and now selling it to gullible-minded brigands like you??

Looks like you are hearing voices in your head, because I never made the postulation as highlighted in your post.
In the first paragraph, I tried to make it clear to you that the highest GDP in Africa crap by PDP, that has been making you all happy is mischievous and misleading. I stated that a more appropriate criteria to measure genuine progress would be the GDP per capita. Even this does not suffices especially in Nigeria were the Dangotes, Adenuga, Otudeko, and a handful of others account for more than 70% of the countries wealth..(its like saying Nigerians are getting richer because a very microscopic few Nigerians bought private jets) the GDP in this case will not tell you much about the overall wellbeing of the population because of it is skewed. This is the reason the GDP is not sufficient to measure development.
The reason I make this point is because its not important and makes no sense to celebrate Nigeria a country with over 182million people with an estimated GDP of $484billion, having a larger GDP than South Africa a country with approximately 55million people with an estimated GDP of $326billion ..what do you get per capita around $2,640 and $5,859 respectively...sourced from wikipedia. PDP used this sensational information which has no impact on outcomes in Nigeria to hoodwink and deceive people to think that they are the leading economy in Africa...any smart person ought see through it.
In the second paragraph I stated clearly that inflation erodes value (google the meaning of erode for better understanding), I also pointed out that an increase in price level will affect businessmen differently than it affects fixed income or salary earners. Let me also add that people who were owing prior to the increase in price level pay back less in real value.
If the prices of fuel, inputs, commodities, services e.t.c goes up, will a businessman not adjust and sell according to his cost price? Though he may not make as much sale as he used to prior to hike in input commodities, but do you in your wisdom think he will sell or deal at a loss?
Same can not be said for a salary or fixed income earner. It takes a long time and in some cases almost impossible to get a pay increase due to an increase in price level and this means salary earners are going to leave with getting less value for their money and not been able to charge more for their own services too...they lose value!
Though these point should be intuitive even after I categorically stated that value is eroded... but then, the quality of our education system is so poor and it reflects all over you.

In case you are in doubt, a cost push inflation reduces the economic activity in the economy hence the level of output drops.

Dont get it mixed up, inflation is bad for economies including Nigerian's, but dont mix up the effects on business owners and salary earners.

1freshdude:

Looks like you are hearing voices in your head, because I never made the postulation as highlighted in your post.
In the first paragraph, I tried to make it clear to you that the highest GDP crap in Africa line by PDP that has been making you all happy is mischievous and misleading. I stated that a more appropriate criteria would be the GDP per capita. Even this does not suffices especially in Nigeria were the Dangotes, Adenuga, Otudeko, and a handful of others account for more than 70% of the countries wealth..the GDP in this case will not tell you much because of its skewness. This is the reason the measure of GDP is not a sufficient condition for development.
The reason I make this point is because its not important and makes no sense to celebrate Nigeria a country with over 182million people with an estimated GDP of $484billion, having a larger GDP than South Africa a country with approximately 55million people with an estimated GDP of $326billion ..what do you get per capita around $2,640 and $5,859 respectively...sourced from wikipedia PDP used this sensational information which is inconsequential for outcomes in Nigeria to hoodwink and deceive people to think that they are the leading economy in Africa...any smart person ought see through it.
In the second paragraph I stated clearly that inflation erodes valued (google the meaning of erode for better understanding), I also pointed out that an increase in price level will affect businessmen differently than it affects fixed income or salary earners. Let me also add that people who were owing prior to the increase in price level pay back less in real value.
If the prices of fuel, inputs, commodities, services e.t.c goes up, will a businessman not adjust and sell according to his cost price? Though he may or may not make the level of profit that he used to make prior to the new price regime but do you in your wisdom think he will sell or deal at a loss?
Same can not be said for a salary or fixed income earner. It takes a long time and in some cases almost impossible to get a pay increase due to an increase in price level and this means salary earners are worst hit.
Though these point should be intuitive even after I categorically stated that value is eroded... but then, the quality of our education system is so poor and you are a living witness.

In case you are in doubt, a cost push inflation reduces the economic activity in the economy hence the level of output drops.

Dont get it mixed up, inflation is bad for economies including Nigerian's, but dont mix up the effects on business owners and salary earners.

Quite disingenuous to suggest that PDP " hoodwinked" us with a GDP figure when in fact GPD per capita was rebased as well.

Quit tactical of you to ignore the fact that APC is using those numbers to highlight our debt-GDP ratio when in talks with intl financial institutions for funding.

So hypocritical that those the same numbers are being bandied about by govt officials when asking foreign investors to come in.

As for "a high GDP not being a sufficient " criterion" (educated folks know when and how to use criteria) measuring development"
A couple of countries stick out when Africa is taken into consideration. Gabon has averaged GDP per capita of $18,200 between 1990 and 2015, but it has developmental challenges like the rest of Africa.

Equatorial Guinea has a GDP per capita of above $16,000 but has a poverty rate of over 60%.

Also, this is the way world economies are ranked. US is the largest economy with over 300m people while China is second with over 1bn, does that mean that the US has the highest GDP per capita? No. Does that mean that China has a GDP per capita close to the US or EU? Get out of your self-imposed ignorance!! So what's your explanation?

My point is, Nigerians are poorer today than they were in 2014 when the GDP was rebased!!