Sorry for any Issue in the write up. I am not an Economics student nor art.

FORGET ABOUT PETROLEUM; Diversity Is The Way!
Fasasi Tosin.
This write up is based on the dwindling economy of the Federal Republic Of Nigeria.
The write up will be making use of personal opinions and other reference from speeches and write up from various specialists such as Ricardo Haussmann speech.

What really inspired me with this write up is a post which claimed Nigeria isn’t really affected by the fall of oil price but due to series of attack on oil installations. Many of you may be expecting me to probably write on the solution to the Niger delta crisis but I am so sorry to disappoint I won’t be doing that. My write up will be on bringing Nigeria back and better than it has ever been.

Almost nothing in economics is more important, or mysterious, than productivity. It means the amount of stuff -- goods, services, economic value -- produced for a given amount of input. It is productivity that separates today's rich, modern consumer societies from subsistence farmers living on the edge of starvation. The Industrial Revolution created technologies such as electricity, turbines and internal combustion engines that supercharged productivity, which is why we live incomparably better lives than those of our great-great-grandparents. If productivity slows, we can expect our living standards to stagnate, no matter what other steps we take.
To put Nigeria on a sustainable growth trajectory one needs much more than sound economic policy. Any policy can be reversed; any incentives for growth can be dismantled. Therefore, we need to build a country whose institutional set-up is unparalleled.
Businesses must be agile in order to both respond rapidly to all the forces pressing down on them and find the talent required to drive growth. And becoming agile means embracing a multitude of work models and talent sources (full-time and part-time workers, contractors, virtual employees, talent pools that are under-leveraged and creative crowd sourcing) to tap a wider range of skills.

Now is the time we should get the Nigerian Economy up and not thinking on getting the Nigerian economy
I looked at Singapore, a country of 5,664,332 people with limited non-renewable natural resources. How did a country with such limited natural resource experience huge growth? Singapore even without her port will experience huge growth. I looked at Germany and I found the solution to be diversity. Manufacturing, ICT, Industrialization all contributed to the success of the countries.
On the other hand, Nigeria as a country[b] according to Wikipedia[/b] is a middle income, mixed economy and emerging market, with expanding financial, service, communications, technology and entertainment sectors. It is ranked as the 21st largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP, and the 20th largest in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. It is the largest economy in Africa; its re-emergent, though currently under performing, manufacturing sector is the third-largest on the continent, and produces a large proportion of goods and services for the West African sub region. Like I stated before manifesting seems to be one of the best way to influence a nation’s economy growth.

Now let us take a look a look at Nigeria Export. I will be putting u a data representation picture from 2011 but will be giving out the 2014 statistic.

In 2014 the top exports of Nigeria are Crude Petroleum ($74B), Petroleum Gas($13.2B), Refined Petroleum ($4.23B), Pyrophoric Alloys ($1.9B) and Special Purpose Ships ($1.25B), using the 1992 revision of the HS (Harmonized System) classification. Its top imports are Refined Petroleum ($7.83B), Cars ($1.75B), Wheat ($1.46B), Motorcycles ($877M) and Iron Structures ($780M). Does this mean Nigeria will be broke without oil? Obviously yes we can all see how the economy went down drastically therefore leading to the current economy recession. Our export in 2014 TOTAL: $99.7B in which total from oil total estimates ($91.43B) Making petroleum 92.2% of our total export. Our dependency on oil leaves Nigeria vulnerable to economic crisis.
Here is Germany and Singapore who diversified their economy.

Germany

Singapore a country with limited Natural resources.

What is the difference? These countries invest in Production and manufacturing.
Manufacturing and Production are the key to diversity.
To diverse the Nigerian economy will be the best option in bringing the nation up back to its best. My opinions will be treated as follow.
Using scrabble as an example I will be explaining how growth can be achieved by diversifying the Nigerian economy using the concept of production space methodology
How much you know is equal to how rich your country will be and how much jobs will be available for your citizens. The greatest asset of emerging markets is their people, so it is essential that the workforce has the right skills. If they do, individuals can access more job opportunities and the wider social development benefits that come from sustainable employment, while businesses have more opportunity to grow, driving wider economic growth in turn.
Let us take a look at Nigeria's manufacturing and production sector.
Looking at Nigeria’s production and manufacturing sector statistics, production in Nigeria decreased 10.10 percent in the first quarter of 2016 over the same quarter in the previous year. Industrial Production in Nigeria averaged 1.79 percent from 2007 until 2016, reaching an all-time high of 20.10 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of -10.10 percent in the first quarter of 2016.
Source: Industrial Production in Nigeria is reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The manufacturing sector accounted for 9% of GDP during 2013 compared to a previously thought 2.5% prior to rebasing. Growth in the sector has been rapid at a pace of almost 18% p.a. during 2011-13, although it is hampered by supply bottlenecks, including disruptions to the electricity supply. The food, beverages and tobacco sub-sector is the most important, accounting for more than half of nominal factory output. The textiles sector is also significant, accounting for about a fifth of production. Automotive manufacturing is becoming a more prominent sub-sector with Nissan delivering its first made-in-Nigeria cars during early 2015. Local company Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing also produced its first passenger vehicles – said to conform to international standards – late in 2014. Elsewhere, pharmaceutical production has received a boost from the World Health Organisation (WHO) with the certification of three local companies in accordance with good manufacturing practice standards, with four companies now able to produce medicines for malaria, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for the international market. Generally, industrialisation is low outside of the oil and gas sector due to a lack in competitiveness of manufactured goods compared to imported items. The cost of production, packaging options and quality of products are some of the challenges facing Nigerian factories. As a result, manufacturing capacity utilisation has been below 60% over the past five years compared to +80% readings in countries like Ghana and South Africa. Nonetheless, the sector still has a greater potential for job creation than extractive sectors due to the labour-intensive nature of local production. The country’s large population – the biggest in Africa – keeps employment costs low. Now let us look at our raw materials import and export rate
In Nigeria the problem is we think we are good with what we do, we think our manufacturing sector is diverse enough. Yes we do think so because we have oil to keep our economy booming therefore leaving us not to think of other sectors. Nigeria is a country with many natural resources but my question now is do we even know what the natural resources are used for? Do we know what we can produce with them? Nigeria natural resources include Cassiterite, Clay, Dolomite, Gold, Lead/Zinc, Marble & Tantalite, Iron-Ore, Manganese and others. Recently a rare type of Nickel was discovered in Nigeria and I can see some blogs talking about how it will boom the economy by selling. My question remains how do we progress when we keep selling everything we have? What happened to our own productivity knowledge? Nigeria as a country should go deep into deep manufacturing. Nigerians always come out great at the African standard however we never be great until we start welcoming innovative ideas and having the need on why certain things should be done.
We manufacture cars but most of of the parts used are not manufactured in Nigeria. We think we are good at manufacturing but what we produce and manufacture are also being produced by other countries which I may consider poor in comparison to Nigeria. I am not asking us to specialise in any manufacturing aspect I am just saying we should diversify our economy by having different capability

Ricardo Haussmann said in scrabble,if you only have one kind of letter, you're mostly going to make one kind of word. But if I give you more letters, you get an increasing number of words diversification of what you do and longer words, more complex products. For example the most diverse country in the world is Germany, and there are very few other countries that are able to do the things that Germany is able to do. While the poorest countries in the world make few things and they make things that everybody knows how to make. Hence they cannot be productive they make shorter words. So the more letters you have, the more complex words." Nigeria is a country whose economy I will call replicative and not innovative. We need to concentrate more on our product space and also focus on the need for capability in relation to supply of capability. The issue is our existing manufacturing and production sectors are not adding new capabilities.

Using Ghana and Thailand as an example, I will explain how diversity can help in the growth of a country.

Let us take a look at Ghana and Thailand Economy. In the year 1965, Ghana and Thailand had a similar GDP PP with Ghana having $295 and Thailand $363. While Ghana invest in Education Thailand Increased her space production capability.
[img]http://1.bp..com/-CfDmLB0p4p8/TsBAiNy2FTI/AAAAAAAABYY/2_q2b2BjzMM/s1600/temp12.jpg[/img]
[img]http://2.bp..com/-Ki4yoQfVl3Q/TsBAqoT_l4I/AAAAAAAABYg/XAsga_mkGJQ/s1600/temp11.jpg[/img]
[img]http://3.bp..com/-R6aet00byAQ/TsBAzCjHmVI/AAAAAAAABYo/UTFVNyULLfM/s1600/temp10.jpg[/img]
Ghana and Thailand have both invested in education over the last four decades, and according to the top graph, Ghana has actually produced more education than Thailand in that period. Thailand has succeeded in developing much wider productive capacity than Ghana, which has seen advances followed by declines. Thailand has greatly increased its GDP per capita while Ghana remained rather static.
The amount of knowledge embedded in a society, however, does not depend mainly on how much knowledge each individual holds. It depends, instead, on the diversity of knowledge across individuals and on their ability to combine this knowledge, and make use of it, through complex webs of interaction.

Ghana Export.

Thailand Export.

My opinion.
Cc: TonyeBarcanista

Following bumper to bumper.
If I get what you are saying, you are pointing out the need to process relatively raw materials into value added products. Example is crude oil being refined into petrol, diesel and kerosine. The processing of crude can give us more jobs instead of selling it in its raw form of crude for less.
Good thread. I hope those shouting APC 'n PDP learn.
One factor holding us down is the issue of abused subsidy system. In developed countries subsidy is tailored around productivity and not consumption. Take the case of dollar for example. The govt in time past decided to be selling part of excess petrodollar and flooded the fx market with it at a cheap rate. This meant when dollar ought to be exchanging for say, N450 and above it was going for N150 because the govt was in the habit of selling excess petrodollar at around N150. This single act meant the govt started subsidizing anything being imported with dollar. It is common knowlegde that we consume alot of foreign items. This subsidy over time has discouraged export of ideas/services and products. Imagine a farmer that exports honey or moringa, or even programmer/blogger/web developer who exports his or her service in exchange for say $1,000 per annum. Instead of getting $1000 X N450 = N450,000.00 per annum in Naira equivalent he/she gets $1000 X N150 = N150,000.00. This has discouraged productivity while encouraging consumption of foreign goods.

Standing5:
Following bumper to bumper.
If I get what you are saying, you are pointing out the need to process relatively raw materials into value added products. Example is crude oil being refined into petrol, diesel and kerosine. The processing of crude can give us more jobs instead of selling it in its raw form of crude for less.
Good thread. I hope those shouting APC 'n PDP learn.
One factor holding us down is the issue of abused subsidy system. In developed countries subsidy is tailored around productivity and not consumption. Take the case of dollar for example. The govt in time past decided to be selling part of excess petrodollar and flooded the fx market with it at a cheap rate. This meant when dollar ought to be exchanging for say, N450 and above it was going for N150 because the govt was in the habit of selling excess petrodollar at around N150. This single act meant the govt started subsidizing anything being imported with dollar. It is common knowlegde that we consume alot of foreign items. This subsidy over time has discouraged export of ideas/services and products. Imagine a farmer that exports honey or moringa, or even programmer/blogger/web developer who exports his or her service in exchange for say $1,000 per annum. Instead of getting $1000 X N450 = N450,000.00 per annum in Naira equivalent he/she gets $1000 X N150 = N150,000.00. This has discouraged productivity while encouraging consumption of foreign goods.

nice analysis. Thanks for the comment.
On the petroleum issue, if our petroleum export contributes up to 90% Of our economy does this mean Nigeria will be competing with Benin republic without oil? We can see how the economy got into crisis with the Niger delta issue.

Nice write up.

tdayof:
nice analysis. Thanks for the comment.
On the petroleum issue, if our petroleum export contributes up to 90% Of our economy does this mean Nigeria will be competing with Benin republic without oil? We can see how the economy got into crisis with the Niger delta issue.

Asides oil we are not far from Benin republic in size of economy.

Seems I'll have to go for a roll call. Nigerians complain but no one is thinking on the way forward.
sunyleeone, Dreamflyin, tdayof, dennisworld1, Mversed, fxdrizzle, goldenval, fzla, Abmbola, aliACCA, LaGaTumuch, tonyx4x44, Oscarrazzi, sagebiz, bl33d, ambrosedmax, Calebsky, sunwalk, cousins, Pakingzzz, Okijajuju1, Ogboraph, wham, demoreon, pinbar, naptu2, inspiredm, EvilBrain1, Gamine, stockbull, DeepSight, EnterPRO, ayox2003, mukina2, mazaje, emofine2, musKeeto, emofine, harakiri,dami9ja, Mheesa, cyberwaver, TELLHIT, joshbouy, cdekj, michaelou, Jtmanager, lordprizzle, Gemc3, Dauchman, kapai, TOMTOM15, bigl, femmygold, Tobiee, Thebrightest, Frankdamaxx, honey001, drey08, yakwas, eniigmar, thankyouJesus, generalx, Thobeee, andreernest28, emusmith, Iyktalent, SweetSoup, chucksbadt, rawswag, Bigroti, Geestunnar, deniyor, Haywhymido, Ossaifamous, Fundango, gagzee, blackgig, DVALOROUS, JackOfAllTrades, yinkeys, Dani4tech, MrSarcasm, fathomberry, BeloHorizonte14, KGBEAST, Efostick, Sharp212, Slimgees, BoiGrammz, JoeCutie, Ricswagger, Kenndall, piicity, Viktor1983, adewaletb3, sharperino, Seunvense, hakeem4, ferdvict2, esosuo, Eedrix, visitor30, kbadejo, Kimeto, azbinbaz, SirStevoe, adexphi, vetrovialMan, ibroauthen, purplekayc, njokuifeanyi30, Bossforeva, Nexxy007, magneto, djgreenland, Luckygurl, duran2059, Whizzcute, frehage, aariwa, Yippsy, ClintonNzedimma, cao, jjy, lilsoulbigcity, deity, Danosaur007, danyel09, ugotex85, shockwave91, solutions2itech, hustler86, UjSizzle, Gr8amechi, Jidefido, khalhokage, ibietela2, jossayo, nerilove, lexicon, CzarChris, lalaboi, bufness, FastShipping, bigtt76, Brite02, saintjoel, help3852, hacmond, vjsmiles, MarineOne, yimadanjuma, CaptainAmerica, kayus4luv2, JayKayMaybachz, kallymore, mailgiddy, afrokid, Dmayor7, ghostofsparta, mytym, haibe, Alfred234, omostar, webprince, NigerianNative, Gnen, avinto, mojibbz, Glossom, dober, dhardline, Didobee, TDonald, Jazzythedon, Gosj01, ligopedro, youngwolf, abiolaope, defemidefemi, bolliejay, ideykwum, martinoonline, VickyRotex, LouisVanGaal, berbs112, joedrae, icedbeatz, sparkleboy, mildteddy, lalasticlala, Matthewbriggs, Pita99, Tholley, kunlesufyan, sarmiie, dynamicbuzz, Buoyim, valexzky, chuks87, Svelteb, toye4eva01, Thevenine, Beegie, Mt1st, gangwolf, Joshkid, Kolasheyi, davide470, grimandevil, Thosen, petluva, Marksule, jesseboy2, chuzydon, Dsaintprodigy, kingaaj, mysyto, Emodeee, CoachNehes, JohnWriter, formular123triol, jamzworld16, ladeni, coalcoal1, chinedusamson, agedmanng, RaphaelOjefo, Habeebpain, softwhispers, alpacino2014, jaey, DoroBen, Angelina996, themonk, sauceEEP, REMMEI, nenergy, ab3458, Stunner1, Danova, RobinHez, Stevegetry, Adesiji77, randomcook, wilsonbright, khenii, dgalon, Richhard, chemmerfrank, bigfatthing, Youngsage, Rajosh, Equalizer, jayjayjay0214, Anaskie, JurassicPark, AAinEqGuinea, spacefreak, J4parry, Keky, aliyuussy, leeport, henryskywalker2003, constance500, joywendy, jbrodaly, wisemany2k, samm, SleekyP, sollex, jacobkunle42, Krestjossy, zico18, ayGodsdelight, tesorunke, werlay, Drniyi4u, bassette, INDUSTRIALFAN, rushman003, jd3trice, majalisa

Why do I keep cropping up in roll calls? How I go help your matter?

Standing5:
Following bumper to bumper.
If I get what you are saying, you are pointing out the need to process relatively raw materials into value added products. Example is crude oil being refined into petrol, diesel and kerosine. The processing of crude can give us more jobs instead of selling it in its raw form of crude for less.
Good thread. I hope those shouting APC 'n PDP learn.
One factor holding us down is the issue of abused subsidy system. In developed countries subsidy is tailored around productivity and not consumption. Take the case of dollar for example. The govt in time past decided to be selling part of excess petrodollar and flooded the fx market with it at a cheap rate. This meant when dollar ought to be exchanging for say, N450 and above it was going for N150 because the govt was in the habit of selling excess petrodollar at around N150. This single act meant the govt started subsidizing anything being imported with dollar. It is common knowlegde that we consume alot of foreign items. This subsidy over time has discouraged export of ideas/services and products. Imagine a farmer that exports honey or moringa, or even programmer/blogger/web developer who exports his or her service in exchange for say $1,000 per annum. Instead of getting $1000 X N450 = N450,000.00 per annum in Naira equivalent he/she gets $1000 X N150 = N150,000.00. This has discouraged productivity while encouraging consumption of foreign goods.

This analysis makes a lot of sense... I love threads like this that educate on the way forward, not the ones looking for who to blame.

@tdayof

Hello,
thanks for the posting. Graphs are very interesting.
Is there any update? Do you have the source?

sunny regards,

re: Singapore, it was ruled by a CEO who put the wealth of his people (consisting of many ethniticies) as 1st priority. I wouldn't call it dictatorship because he was elected. But his power was big. In contrast to western society, the CEO put the wealth of the majority above the rights of individuals. It is very similar to Hong Kong. So, Singapore is almost built according to a big masterplan... similar to Abuja, if Abuja was a nation.
The foundation of a society is education (, freedom and respect for each other), i.e. pupils from Singapore are ranked among the top in math according to Pisa studies. Most northern Asian countries have confucius values. (I am not talking of religion!)

iLoveTheSun:
@tdayof

Hello,
thanks for the posting. Graphs are very interesting.
Is there any update? Do you have the source?

sunny regards,

I got the graphs from http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/nga/all/show/2014/?prod_class=hs4&details_treemap=2&disable_widgets=false&disable_search=false&node_size=none&queryActivated=true&highlight=
You can check for any country from 1995 to 2014.

iLoveTheSun:
@tdayof

Hello,
thanks for the posting. Graphs are very interesting.
Is there any update? Do you have the source?

sunny regards,

re: Singapore, it was ruled by a CEO who put the wealth of his people (consisting of many ethniticies) as 1st priority. I wouldn't call it dictatorship because he was elected. But his power was big. In contrast to western society, the CEO put the wealth of the majority above the rights of individuals. It is very similar to Hong Kong. So, Singapore is almost built according to a big masterplan... similar to Abuja, if Abuja was a nation.
The foundation of a society is education (, freedom and respect for each other), i.e. pupils from Singapore are ranked among the top in math according to Pisa studies. Most northern Asian countries have confucius values. (I am not talking of religion!)

You are right. Will be happy if you can check hong kong from 2002-2014 and notice their export pattern.

re: Germany
Since the emergence of the oil crisis in 1973, the German government has introduced an Energy-Saving-Plan Law.
Therefore gas and diesel in Germany is one of the most expensive in the world due to heavy taxes.
The big side effect: the car industry had to manufacture high-efficient engines, (even though VW and others cheated).
Eventually many foreign buyers prefer fuel-saving cars from Germany.
All inventions and innovations evolved from a need...

In 199x, Germany introduced the Renewable Energy Feed-in mechanism under the Social Democratic Party. Renewable energy was not cheap, but the cost of renewable energy installations should be born by all electricity rate payers. The government invested heavily in public-private research centers and universities to increase the efficiencies of solar cells.
The so called EEG Act was introduced. The government guaranteed for a period of 20 years the payment. The big target becoming more energy independent has been achieved. (In 2015 and 2016 on some days, Germany produced so much electricity from wind and solar that Germany dumps surplus electricity to France, Austria, and Switzerland for free! Having Solar in Germany is like growing pineapples in Greenland compared to the sun in Africa.)
The side effect: the solar industry became a multi-billion industry in Germany. Germany exported along the whole value chain: machines, raw material, glas, solar cells, robots, frames, solar panels, and solar inverters with electronics.

In 2016, Germany has introduced a 5,000 Euro Electric vehicle rebate. Mercedes and VW enter the battery storage business for vehicles and for homes.

What I am saying: there was a masterplan that was supported by all political parties, because leadership was embedded in the masterplan. The color of governments changes from time to time, e.g. after 4 or 5 years, but the masterplan is still kept. Technocrats and true patriots laid the foundation of the masterplan.

Re: EEG Act in Germany
At the same time the state-bank KfW provided 10 year or 20 year loans at subsidized interest rate.
Let's say market interest rate was 6% per year, KfW would offer -2%, i.e. 4% per year. So the initial cost to the taxpayer is 2% of the investment.
The clever thing about doing so, the German fiscal office got a multiple of that back. EEG Act was an economic stimulus.
When you buy a solar system for 100 points, then 19 points on top was given as VAT to the fiscal office.
And 30 points of those 100 points was labour. Then 33% of those 30 points (=10 points) was paid to the social security and income tax to the fiscal office.
So, Germany "invested" 2% in the first year and got 29% back. The year after the 2% would become 1,8% because the loan was paid back 1/10, if it was a 10 year loan.
But the government hat 29% "cash" in the first year. It was a solar boom and created over 250,000 jobs, some were high-paying research and engineering jobs, many manufacturing jobs, and most jobs created were in installation business.

At the same time, consumers of solar systems saved 50% on their own electricity bill. Let's say 10% of total household budget was on electricity. Then they would save 50% of it. Eventually, they have 5% of the household budget available to spend on other consumer goods or to pay back their house or would save it. Additional consumption or future investments help the economy as well.

When I read about the fiscal effects of subsidized loans, I thought "Wow, Germans are smart!"

tdayof:

You are right. Will be happy if you can check hong kong from 2002-2014 and notice their export pattern.

Are there any import statistics as well?

According to the bureau of statistics, Nigeria is in a recession following the definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

one of the best write ups I've seen in ages ....thought u were good in only defence related topic but it seems u are an all rounder

tdayof:
Seems I'll have to go for a roll call. Nigerians complain but no one is thinking on the way forward.
sunyleeone, Dreamflyin, tdayof, dennisworld1, Mversed, fxdrizzle, goldenval, fzla, Abmbola, aliACCA, LaGaTumuch, tonyx4x44, Oscarrazzi, sagebiz, bl33d, ambrosedmax, Calebsky, sunwalk, cousins, Pakingzzz, Okijajuju1, Ogboraph, wham, demoreon, pinbar, naptu2, inspiredm, EvilBrain1, Gamine, stockbull, DeepSight, EnterPRO, ayox2003, mukina2, mazaje, emofine2, musKeeto, emofine, harakiri,dami9ja, Mheesa, cyberwaver, TELLHIT, joshbouy, cdekj, michaelou, Jtmanager, lordprizzle, Gemc3, Dauchman, kapai, TOMTOM15, bigl, femmygold, Tobiee, Thebrightest, Frankdamaxx, honey001, drey08, yakwas, eniigmar, thankyouJesus, generalx, Thobeee, andreernest28, emusmith, Iyktalent, SweetSoup, chucksbadt, rawswag, Bigroti, Geestunnar, deniyor, Haywhymido, Ossaifamous, Fundango, gagzee, blackgig, DVALOROUS, JackOfAllTrades, yinkeys, Dani4tech, MrSarcasm, fathomberry, BeloHorizonte14, KGBEAST, Efostick, Sharp212, Slimgees, BoiGrammz, JoeCutie, Ricswagger, Kenndall, piicity, Viktor1983, adewaletb3, sharperino, Seunvense, hakeem4, ferdvict2, esosuo, Eedrix, visitor30, kbadejo, Kimeto, azbinbaz, SirStevoe, adexphi, vetrovialMan, ibroauthen, purplekayc, njokuifeanyi30, Bossforeva, Nexxy007, magneto, djgreenland, Luckygurl, duran2059, Whizzcute, frehage, aariwa, Yippsy, ClintonNzedimma, cao, jjy, lilsoulbigcity, deity, Danosaur007, danyel09, ugotex85, shockwave91, solutions2itech, hustler86, UjSizzle, Gr8amechi, Jidefido, khalhokage, ibietela2, jossayo, nerilove, lexicon, CzarChris, lalaboi, bufness, FastShipping, bigtt76, Brite02, saintjoel, help3852, hacmond, vjsmiles, MarineOne, yimadanjuma, CaptainAmerica, kayus4luv2, JayKayMaybachz, kallymore, mailgiddy, afrokid, Dmayor7, ghostofsparta, mytym, haibe, Alfred234, omostar, webprince, NigerianNative, Gnen, avinto, mojibbz, Glossom, dober, dhardline, Didobee, TDonald, Jazzythedon, Gosj01, ligopedro, youngwolf, abiolaope, defemidefemi, bolliejay, ideykwum, martinoonline, VickyRotex, LouisVanGaal, berbs112, joedrae, icedbeatz, sparkleboy, mildteddy, lalasticlala, Matthewbriggs, Pita99, Tholley, kunlesufyan, sarmiie, dynamicbuzz, Buoyim, valexzky, chuks87, Svelteb, toye4eva01, Thevenine, Beegie, Mt1st, gangwolf, Joshkid, Kolasheyi, davide470, grimandevil, Thosen, petluva, Marksule, jesseboy2, chuzydon, Dsaintprodigy, kingaaj, mysyto, Emodeee, CoachNehes, JohnWriter, formular123triol, jamzworld16, ladeni, coalcoal1, chinedusamson, agedmanng, RaphaelOjefo, Habeebpain, softwhispers, alpacino2014, jaey, DoroBen, Angelina996, themonk, sauceEEP, REMMEI, nenergy, ab3458, Stunner1, Danova, RobinHez, Stevegetry, Adesiji77, randomcook, wilsonbright, khenii, dgalon, Richhard, chemmerfrank, bigfatthing, Youngsage, Rajosh, Equalizer, jayjayjay0214, Anaskie, JurassicPark, AAinEqGuinea, spacefreak, J4parry, Keky, aliyuussy, leeport, henryskywalker2003, constance500, joywendy, jbrodaly, wisemany2k, samm, SleekyP, sollex, jacobkunle42, Krestjossy, zico18, ayGodsdelight, tesorunke, werlay, Drniyi4u, bassette, INDUSTRIALFAN, rushman003, jd3trice, majalisa

hahahahahahahahaha
so cute
ypu actually think human beings are rational
they don't want solutions
they want solvers
why do think so few ppl get rich
cos they are the few willing to do anything
its poverty that pushes the majority to do the barest minimum to survive
then they will come out to be blaming the rich for succeeeding where they have failed

rawswag:
one of the best write ups I've seen in ages ....thought u were good in only defence related topic but it seems u are an all rounder

lol thanks.

iLoveTheSun:
Re: EEG Act in Germany
At the same time the state-bank KfW provided 10 year or 20 year loans at subsidized interest rate.
Let's say market interest rate was 6% per year, KfW would offer -2%, i.e. 4% per year. So the initial cost to the taxpayer is 2% of the investment.
The clever thing about doing so, the German fiscal office got a multiple of that back. EEG Act was an economic stimulus.
When you buy a solar system for 100 points, then 19 points on top was given as VAT to the fiscal office.
And 30 points of those 100 points was labour. Then 33% of those 30 points (=10 points) was paid to the social security and income tax to the fiscal office.
So, Germany "invested" 2% in the first year and got 29% back. The year after the 2% would become 1,8% because the loan was paid back 1/10, if it was a 10 year loan.
But the government hat 29% "cash" in the first year. It was a solar boom and created over 250,000 jobs, some were high-paying research and engineering jobs, many manufacturing jobs, and most jobs created were in installation business.

At the same time, consumers of solar systems saved 50% on their own electricity bill. Let's say 10% of total household budget was on electricity. Then they would save 50% of it. Eventually, they have 5% of the household budget available to spend on other consumer goods or to pay back their house or would save it. Additional consumption or future investments help the economy as well.

When I read about the fiscal effects of subsidized loans, I thought "Wow, Germans are smart!"

All I see is a government that understands that the world is a customer driven economy and also knows how to make the right policies. They created jobs, reduced bills and at the same time boosted the economy. I do not know the right word to use but the German government is something I'll call genius.

If only Nigeria had plan for the rainy days
Well,Its pouring

Am glad there Is a thread like this

Although am all limbs for diversification
But I bliv the Oil & gas(Energy Industry) can still be a big source of income to Nigeria without being the principal revenue earner


The problem I noticed in all sectors is d short value chain

Until the judiciary system is independent and strengthened, political power can not be lessen and Nigeria may not progress the way it should.

tdayof:
Sorry for any Issue in the write up. I am not an Economics student nor art.

FORGET ABOUT PETROLEUM; Diversity Is The Way!
Fasasi Tosin.
This write up is based on the dwindling economy of the Federal Republic Of Nigeria.
The write up will be making use of personal opinions and other reference from speeches and write up from various specialists such as Ricardo Haussmann speech.

What really inspired me with this write up is a post which claimed Nigeria isn’t really affected by the fall of oil price but due to series of attack on oil installations. Many of you may be expecting me to probably write on the solution to the Niger delta crisis but I am so sorry to disappoint I won’t be doing that. My write up will be on bringing Nigeria back and better than it has ever been.

Almost nothing in economics is more important, or mysterious, than productivity. It means the amount of stuff -- goods, services, economic value -- produced for a given amount of input. It is productivity that separates today's rich, modern consumer societies from subsistence farmers living on the edge of starvation. The Industrial Revolution created technologies such as electricity, turbines and internal combustion engines that supercharged productivity, which is why we live incomparably better lives than those of our great-great-grandparents. If productivity slows, we can expect our living standards to stagnate, no matter what other steps we take.
To put Nigeria on a sustainable growth trajectory one needs much more than sound economic policy. Any policy can be reversed; any incentives for growth can be dismantled. Therefore, we need to build a country whose institutional set-up is unparalleled.
Businesses must be agile in order to both respond rapidly to all the forces pressing down on them and find the talent required to drive growth. And becoming agile means embracing a multitude of work models and talent sources (full-time and part-time workers, contractors, virtual employees, talent pools that are under-leveraged and creative crowd sourcing) to tap a wider range of skills.

Now is the time we should get the Nigerian Economy up and not thinking on getting the Nigerian economy
I looked at Singapore, a country of 5,664,332 people with limited non-renewable natural resources. How did a country with such limited natural resource experience huge growth? Singapore even without her port will experience huge growth. I looked at Germany and I found the solution to be diversity. Manufacturing, ICT, Industrialization all contributed to the success of the countries.
On the other hand, Nigeria as a country[b] according to Wikipedia[/b] is a middle income, mixed economy and emerging market, with expanding financial, service, communications, technology and entertainment sectors. It is ranked as the 21st largest economy in the world in terms of nominal GDP, and the 20th largest in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. It is the largest economy in Africa; its re-emergent, though currently under performing, manufacturing sector is the third-largest on the continent, and produces a large proportion of goods and services for the West African sub region. Like I stated before manifesting seems to be one of the best way to influence a nation’s economy growth.

Now let us take a look a look at Nigeria Export. I will be putting u a data representation picture from 2011 but will be giving out the 2014 statistic.

In 2014 the top exports of Nigeria are Crude Petroleum ($74B), Petroleum Gas($13.2B), Refined Petroleum ($4.23B), Pyrophoric Alloys ($1.9B) and Special Purpose Ships ($1.25B), using the 1992 revision of the HS (Harmonized System) classification. Its top imports are Refined Petroleum ($7.83B), Cars ($1.75B), Wheat ($1.46B), Motorcycles ($877M) and Iron Structures ($780M). Does this mean Nigeria will be broke without oil? Obviously yes we can all see how the economy went down drastically therefore leading to the current economy recession. Our export in 2014 TOTAL: $99.7B in which total from oil total estimates ($91.43B) Making petroleum 92.2% of our total export. Our dependency on oil leaves Nigeria vulnerable to economic crisis.
Here is Germany and Singapore who diversified their economy.

Germany

Singapore a country with limited Natural resources.

What is the difference? These countries invest in Production and manufacturing.
Manufacturing and Production are the key to diversity.
To diverse the Nigerian economy will be the best option in bringing the nation up back to its best. My opinions will be treated as follow.
Using scrabble as an example I will be explaining how growth can be achieved by diversifying the Nigerian economy using the concept of production space methodology
How much you know is equal to how rich your country will be and how much jobs will be available for your citizens. The greatest asset of emerging markets is their people, so it is essential that the workforce has the right skills. If they do, individuals can access more job opportunities and the wider social development benefits that come from sustainable employment, while businesses have more opportunity to grow, driving wider economic growth in turn.
Let us take a look at Nigeria's manufacturing and production sector.
Looking at Nigeria’s production and manufacturing sector statistics, production in Nigeria decreased 10.10 percent in the first quarter of 2016 over the same quarter in the previous year. Industrial Production in Nigeria averaged 1.79 percent from 2007 until 2016, reaching an all-time high of 20.10 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of -10.10 percent in the first quarter of 2016.
Source: Industrial Production in Nigeria is reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The manufacturing sector accounted for 9% of GDP during 2013 compared to a previously thought 2.5% prior to rebasing. Growth in the sector has been rapid at a pace of almost 18% p.a. during 2011-13, although it is hampered by supply bottlenecks, including disruptions to the electricity supply. The food, beverages and tobacco sub-sector is the most important, accounting for more than half of nominal factory output. The textiles sector is also significant, accounting for about a fifth of production. Automotive manufacturing is becoming a more prominent sub-sector with Nissan delivering its first made-in-Nigeria cars during early 2015. Local company Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing also produced its first passenger vehicles – said to conform to international standards – late in 2014. Elsewhere, pharmaceutical production has received a boost from the World Health Organisation (WHO) with the certification of three local companies in accordance with good manufacturing practice standards, with four companies now able to produce medicines for malaria, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for the international market. Generally, industrialisation is low outside of the oil and gas sector due to a lack in competitiveness of manufactured goods compared to imported items. The cost of production, packaging options and quality of products are some of the challenges facing Nigerian factories. As a result, manufacturing capacity utilisation has been below 60% over the past five years compared to +80% readings in countries like Ghana and South Africa. Nonetheless, the sector still has a greater potential for job creation than extractive sectors due to the labour-intensive nature of local production. The country’s large population – the biggest in Africa – keeps employment costs low. Now let us look at our raw materials import and export rate
In Nigeria the problem is we think we are good with what we do, we think our manufacturing sector is diverse enough. Yes we do think so because we have oil to keep our economy booming therefore leaving us not to think of other sectors. Nigeria is a country with many natural resources but my question now is do we even know what the natural resources are used for? Do we know what we can produce with them? Nigeria natural resources include Cassiterite, Clay, Dolomite, Gold, Lead/Zinc, Marble & Tantalite, Iron-Ore, Manganese and others. Recently a rare type of Nickel was discovered in Nigeria and I can see some blogs talking about how it will boom the economy by selling. My question remains how do we progress when we keep selling everything we have? What happened to our own productivity knowledge? Nigeria as a country should go deep into deep manufacturing. Nigerians always come out great at the African standard however we never be great until we start welcoming innovative ideas and having the need on why certain things should be done.
We manufacture cars but most of of the parts used are not manufactured in Nigeria. We think we are good at manufacturing but what we produce and manufacture are also being produced by other countries which I may consider poor in comparison to Nigeria. I am not asking us to specialise in any manufacturing aspect I am just saying we should diversify our economy by having different capability

Ricardo Haussmann said in scrabble,if you only have one kind of letter, you're mostly going to make one kind of word. But if I give you more letters, you get an increasing number of words diversification of what you do and longer words, more complex products. For example the most diverse country in the world is Germany, and there are very few other countries that are able to do the things that Germany is able to do. While the poorest countries in the world make few things and they make things that everybody knows how to make. Hence they cannot be productive they make shorter words. So the more letters you have, the more complex words." Nigeria is a country whose economy I will call replicative and not innovative. We need to concentrate more on our product space and also focus on the need for capability in relation to supply of capability. The issue is our existing manufacturing and production sectors are not adding new capabilities.

Using Ghana and Thailand as an example, I will explain how diversity can help in the growth of a country.

Let us take a look at Ghana and Thailand Economy. In the year 1965, Ghana and Thailand had a similar GDP PP with Ghana having $295 and Thailand $363. While Ghana invest in Education Thailand Increased her space production capability.
[img]http://1.bp..com/-CfDmLB0p4p8/TsBAiNy2FTI/AAAAAAAABYY/2_q2b2BjzMM/s1600/temp12.jpg[/img]
[img]http://2.bp..com/-Ki4yoQfVl3Q/TsBAqoT_l4I/AAAAAAAABYg/XAsga_mkGJQ/s1600/temp11.jpg[/img]
[img]http://3.bp..com/-R6aet00byAQ/TsBAzCjHmVI/AAAAAAAABYo/UTFVNyULLfM/s1600/temp10.jpg[/img]
Ghana and Thailand have both invested in education over the last four decades, and according to the top graph, Ghana has actually produced more education than Thailand in that period. Thailand has succeeded in developing much wider productive capacity than Ghana, which has seen advances followed by declines. Thailand has greatly increased its GDP per capita while Ghana remained rather static.
The amount of knowledge embedded in a society, however, does not depend mainly on how much knowledge each individual holds. It depends, instead, on the diversity of knowledge across individuals and on their ability to combine this knowledge, and make use of it, through complex webs of interaction.

Ghana Export.

Thailand Export.

My opinion.
Cc: TonyeBarcanista

The collapse in oil price did affect the country bit Buhari's "corrective" policies made things far worse plunging the country into a deep recession.

You talk about productivity? How will productivity be high when the lending rate is in double digits? This to me is the biggest killer of productivity in the country. How can industrialist import world beating machinery that would make them very competitive? If they were, it will eventually be AMCONed.

Dangote said how can agriculture they've with lending rate at 20%. Costly credit has a more damaging effect than the dearth of power or good roads.

It is not just that credit is expensive but unnecessary so. Nigeria for years has maintained low budget deficits so the lending rate should be in single digits

Henry Boyo, an economist, blames the high cost of credit on the Naira subsitution policy. Google it

grandstar:


The collapse in oil price did affect the country bit Buhari's "corrective" policies made things far worse plunging the country into a deep recession.

You talk about productivity? How will productivity be high when the lending rate is in double digits? This to me is the biggest killer of productivity in the country. How can industrialist import world beating machinery that would make them very competitive? If they were, it will eventually be AMCONed.

Dangote said how can agriculture they've with lending rate at 20%. Costly credit has a more damaging effect than the dearth of power or good roads.

It is not just that credit is expensive but unnecessary so. Nigeria for years has maintained low budget deficits so the lending rate should be in single digits

Henry Boyo, an economist, blames the high cost of credit on the Naira subsitution policy. Google it

@grandstar , during the era of fdi inflows to Asia , why didn't fdi flow into Africa , despite the fact that both were poor continents with low literacy rate ?

urahara:


@grandstar , during the era of fdi inflows to Asia , why didn't fdi flow into Africa , despite the fact that both were poor continents with low literacy rate ?

The Asian countries worked hard in attracting foreign investment.

Taiwan for instance had industrial parks which probably came with tax holidays. So did Singapore. China had lots of Special Economic Zones which drew FDI in large numbers

Nigeria on the other hand did the opposite. The country introduced the indeginisation Decree which limited what foreigners could own to 40% of any enterprises scaring off FDI. It was only in 1995 that law was repealed

Other African countries nationalised foreign owned companies.

Mauritius on the other hand set up an Export Processing Zone which helped the country prosper.