FG: Nigeria’ll Not Enter Recession

The Federal Government, in its Medium-Term Expen-diture Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (Revised), submitted to the Senate by President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua for approval, has indicated that although, the rate of economic growth in Nigeria is projected to decline next year, the nation would not enter economic recession due to government’s fiscal and monetary policies.
The covering letter to the MTEF dated September 29, 2009, was read on the floor of the Senate last Wednesday, by the Senate President, Senator David Mark.The document, prepared by the Budget Office of the Federation, indicated that “fiscal policy for 2011 to 2012 has been formulated in a difficult macro-economic setting, with economic growth forecasted to slow to just 2.61 per cent in 2010 and inflation currently above its long term trend.
“The government has, therefore, had to carefully balance the potential benefits of an expansionary fiscal policy on aggregate demand and short term economic growth, against the negative effects such a policy might have on inflation, macroeconomic stability and long term economic growth.” the report said. The MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper noted that “headline inflation is forecasted to decline in the medium term, due to decreased aggregate demand and successful implementation of policies to control inflation by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
According to the report: “The Naira to US dollar exchange rate is forecasted to stabilise at 147, over the medium term, with the upward pressure on the exchange rate caused by a projected increase in the price of oil, negating the downward pressure caused by the high rate of inflation in Nigeria, relative to the USA.“The rate of economic growth in Nigeria is projected to decline in 2010, due to a fall in aggregate demand caused by the global recession.
However, due to government's fiscal and monetary policies, Nigeria will not enter recession and the rate of economic growth is expected to increase in 2011 and 2012.” The document noted: “government plans to increase thebenchmark price of oil from $45 in 2009 to $50 in 2010; this will result in a substantial increase in budgeted oil revenue from N969 billion to N1,184 billion between 2009 and 2010, despite a forecasted decline in oil production.
“There is a further increase in oil revenue in 2011 to N1,396 billion due to an increase in the benchmark price of oil to $52.5 and increased oil production. Further increases in the benchmark price and oil production drive an increase in oil revenue from N1,396 billion in 2011 to N1,566 billionin 2012. “The benchmark price for oil is forecasted to be below theprojected market price for oil in 2010 of $57.20; this means that as long as there are no unexpected shortfalls in oil production or non-oil revenue, savings should accrue to the ECA in 2010.“Non-oil revenue in 2010 is forecasted to decline from its 2009 budgeted amount and there are two reasons for this decline.
“Firstly, non-oil revenue collection targets in 2009 were set at an ambitious level and may not be met.“Secondly, non-oil revenue may decline due to the slowdown in economic growth caused by the global downturn. Total Federal Government revenue is forecasted to decline from N2,265 billion in 2009 to N2,096 billion in 2010; with the decrease in non-oil revenue outweighing the increase in oilrevenue.”


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Are these politicians for real,in my book,Nigeria has been in recession for so many years now,going by the definition of recession:

Definitions of Economic recession on the Web:

In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic activity over a sustained period of time, or a business cycle contraction.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_recession

A slowdown in economic activity marked by less consumer spending and often also by higher unemployment.
www.mariner.org/chesapeakebay/century/vocab.html

A temporary slow-down in economic growth
www.think-energy.co.uk/ThinkEnergy/16-18/glossary/Default.aspx

A decline in economic activity (GDP) that persists for at least two quarters


So nairalanders after going through the above,do you think Nigeria is in recession already or you're going with the FG's position that Nigeria is not

Its been n recession.