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Brexit Britain: What Has Actually Happened So Far? - Business - Nairaland

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Brexit Britain: What Has Actually Happened So Far? by Ubongusoro(m): 3:17am On Oct 02, 2016
The UK may have voted on 23 June to leave the European Union but it is not yet clear what the country's path to Brexit will actually mean. Here we highlight the latest developments following the vote. Economy Many economists prior to the referendum had been predicting an immediate and significant impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence should the country vote to leave the EU. But so far these predictions have not come to pass. The UK services sector grew 0.4% in July, much more strongly than expected in the wake of June's vote to leave the European Union, showing that consumers carried on spending as normal after the Brexit vote. Other figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show economic growth accelerated faster than thought in the run-up to the referendum. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.7% in the three months to the end of June, up from the 0.6% first estimated. However, there does seem to have been a decline in confidence in the small business sector. The first survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) since the Brexit vote showed more small and medium-sized businesses were pessimistic about the future than positive for the first time in four years. Meanwhile, international body the OECD has gone back on its warning that the UK would suffer immediately from a Brexit vote and has revised its 2016 GDP growth forecasts for the UK slightly upwards from 1.7% to 1.8%. However, it has cut the forecast for next year from 2% to 1%, saying: "Uncertainty about the future path of policy and the reaction of the economy remains very high and risks remain to the downside." And the heads of two major Wall Street companies have warned that the UK financial services industry could be damaged by Brexit. Rob Kapito, head of one of the world's largest investment houses Blackrock, said there was "a lot of concern" in the financial community, while the president of investment bank Morgan Stanley, Colm Kelleher, said is bank's immediate concern was over whether to invest further in the UK. Consumer confidence has returned to pre- referendum levels in September with shoppers shrugging off concerns and continuing to spend. They have been helped by higher wages, low inflation, and the Bank of England's record low interest rates, according to GfK. Its consumer confidence index is back to its pre- Brexit vote levels in September, jumping six points in its biggest monthly rise since June 2015. This continued consumer spending is also borne out by UK retail sales figures. Sales have generally been rising for the past three years, and in August they were up 6.2% from the same month last year. "Overall the figures do not suggest any major fall in post-referendum consumer confidence," the ONS said. Inflation has gone up, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rising to 0.6% in July, a rate unchanged in August . Raw material prices have risen, partly as a result of the falling pound, but the ONS said there was "little sign of this feeding through to consumer prices yet". New prime minister David Cameron - who had campaigned for Remain - announced his resignation the day after the referendum. He was replaced by Theresa May, who won the shorter-than- expected leadership contest when rival Andrea Leadsom pulled out. Boris Johnson, who led the campaign to leave the EU, was made foreign secretary with his own leadership ambitions having been thwarted by his former Vote Leave ally Michael Gove. Mrs May's new cabinet also includes a Secretary of State for Brexit, David Davis, and an International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox. Mr Davis, Mr Fox and Mr Johnson all campaigned for Brexit and have roles focusing on it, but are reported to have clashed over the extent of their new responsibilities. Interest rates Since the vote the Bank of England has taken a number of steps to boost the UK economy. It cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in August - the first reduction in the cost of borrowing since 2009 and taking UK rates to a new record low. The Bank left its main interest rate at 0.25% in September but said another cut is still a possibility. The Bank has also announced a huge extension of its quantitative easing programme by an extra £70bn, and a £100bn scheme to force banks to pass on the low interest rate to households and businesses. One effect of the interest rate cut is that it has exacerbated the growing pension funds deficit because of falling bond yields. As yields fall it reduces the incomes pension funds get from their investments. Currency The pound plunged dramatically on 24 June, the day after the referendum. Since then it has remained at significantly lower levels because of uncertainty about the economic outlook and the UK's relationship with the EU, hitting a three- year low of $1.2869 on 15 August. The pound did bounce back slightly against the dollar in September after the US central bank held interest rates and signalled a less aggressive path for rate hikes in coming years. But sterling is currently trading against the dollar at $1.29 - a year ago it was worth $1.57. The pound has also fallen significantly against the euro . It is currently worth about €1.15. A year ago it was worth €1.35. The currency's continuing weakness has been accentuated by the cut in interest rates and the Bank of England's economic stimulus measures. One of the most immediate consequences of this was that it made foreign holidays more expensive for British tourists, while it has also increased import costs for manufacturers (see Trade below). However, one beneficiary of cheaper sterling has been the UK's own tourism sector, as a weaker pound makes Britain a cheaper destination for overseas tourists. The travel analytics firm ForwardKeys says flight bookings to the UK rose 7.1% after the vote. Caissa Touristic, a tour operator specialising in Chinese travel to Europe, says it's seen a 20% increase in enquiries and bookings for the UK this summer compared with the same period last year, while Irish no-frills airline Ryanair says it has seen a rise in overseas visitors travelling to London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Scotland. Negotiations Mrs May has met some other EU leaders including Germany's Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande, but formal negotiations on the UK's departure from, and its future relationship with, the EU have yet to start. EU leaders have said Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - which sets in place a two-year exit process - must be triggered before negotiations can begin. The government has not yet set out in detail what it wants from the talks, with reported differences between key figures on the balance between free trade and immigration curbs. Mrs May has said she will not trigger Article 50 before the start of 2017 at the earliest. Hate crime There's clear evidence of a spike in hate crime since the 23 June ballot. Reported hate crime rose by 57% in the four days after the referendum, police say. Some 3,219 hate crimes and incidents - alleged to have taken place between 16-30 June - were reported to police forces across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, according to revised figures published by the National Police Chiefs' Council. This represented a 37% increase compared with the same period in 2015. The next reporting period, from 1-14, July, saw 3,235 reports of hate crimes and incidents. This was up only 0.5% on the previous fortnight but it was still a 29% increase on the same period in 2015. And 15-28 July saw 3,236 reports - virtually unchanged on the previous fortnight and up 40% on the same period the previous year. Police Scotland, however, has said this rise in reports has not been witnessed north of the border. It's impossible to tell to what extent the spike was about a rise in reporting and to what extent it was about a rise in actual incidents. What we do know is that most hate crimes typically go unreported. The government has announced a plan to tackle hate crime in England and Wales and police handling of such incidents will be reviewed.

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