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Brexit Britain: What Has Actually Happened So Far? by Ubongusoro(m): 3:17am On Oct 02, 2016 |
The UK may have voted on 23 June to leave
the European Union but it is not yet clear
what the country's path to Brexit will actually
mean.
Here we highlight the latest developments
following the vote.
Economy
Many economists prior to the referendum had
been predicting an immediate and significant
impact on the UK economy and consumer
confidence should the country vote to leave the
EU. But so far these predictions have not come
to pass.
The UK services sector grew 0.4% in July, much
more strongly than expected in the wake of
June's vote to leave the European Union,
showing that consumers carried on spending as
normal after the Brexit vote.
Other figures from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) show economic growth
accelerated faster than thought in the run-up to
the referendum. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
grew by 0.7% in the three months to the end of
June, up from the 0.6% first estimated.
However, there does seem to have been a
decline in confidence in the small business
sector. The first survey by the Federation of
Small Businesses (FSB) since the Brexit vote
showed more small and medium-sized
businesses were pessimistic about the future
than positive for the first time in four years.
Meanwhile, international body the OECD has
gone back on its warning that the UK would
suffer immediately from a Brexit vote and has
revised its 2016 GDP growth forecasts for the UK
slightly upwards from 1.7% to 1.8%.
However, it has cut the forecast for next year
from 2% to 1%, saying: "Uncertainty about the
future path of policy and the reaction of the
economy remains very high and risks remain to
the downside."
And the heads of two major Wall Street
companies have warned that the UK financial
services industry could be damaged
by Brexit. Rob Kapito, head of one of the
world's largest investment houses Blackrock,
said there was "a lot of concern" in the financial
community, while the president of investment
bank Morgan Stanley, Colm Kelleher, said is
bank's immediate concern was over whether to
invest further in the UK.
Consumer confidence has returned to pre-
referendum levels in September with shoppers
shrugging off concerns and continuing to spend.
They have been helped by higher wages, low
inflation, and the Bank of England's record low
interest rates, according to GfK.
Its consumer confidence index is back to its pre-
Brexit vote levels in September, jumping six
points in its biggest monthly rise since June
2015.
This continued consumer spending is also borne
out by UK retail sales figures. Sales have
generally been rising for the past three years,
and in August they were up 6.2% from the same
month last year. "Overall the figures do not
suggest any major fall in post-referendum
consumer confidence," the ONS said.
Inflation has gone up, with the Consumer Prices
Index (CPI) rising to 0.6% in July, a rate
unchanged in August . Raw material prices have
risen, partly as a result of the falling pound, but
the ONS said there was "little sign of this
feeding through to consumer prices yet".
New prime minister
David Cameron - who had campaigned for
Remain - announced his resignation the day
after the referendum. He was replaced by
Theresa May, who won the shorter-than-
expected leadership contest when rival Andrea
Leadsom pulled out. Boris Johnson, who led the
campaign to leave the EU, was made foreign
secretary with his own leadership ambitions
having been thwarted by his former Vote Leave
ally Michael Gove.
Mrs May's new cabinet also includes a Secretary
of State for Brexit, David Davis, and an
International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox. Mr
Davis, Mr Fox and Mr Johnson all campaigned
for Brexit and have roles focusing on it, but are
reported to have clashed over the extent of
their new responsibilities.
Interest rates
Since the vote the Bank of England has taken a
number of steps to boost the UK economy. It
cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in
August - the first reduction in the cost of
borrowing since 2009 and taking UK rates to a
new record low.
The Bank left its main interest rate at 0.25%
in September
but said another cut is still a possibility.
The Bank has also announced a huge extension
of its quantitative easing programme by an
extra £70bn, and a £100bn scheme to force
banks to pass on the low interest rate to
households and businesses.
One effect of the interest rate cut is that it has
exacerbated the growing pension funds deficit
because of falling bond yields. As yields fall it
reduces the incomes pension funds get from
their investments.
Currency
The pound plunged dramatically on 24 June, the
day after the referendum. Since then it has
remained at significantly lower levels because of
uncertainty about the economic outlook and the
UK's relationship with the EU, hitting a three-
year low of $1.2869 on 15 August.
The pound did bounce back slightly against the
dollar in September after the US central bank
held interest rates and signalled a less
aggressive path for rate hikes in coming years.
But sterling is currently trading against the
dollar at $1.29 - a year ago it was worth $1.57.
The pound has also fallen significantly against
the euro . It is currently worth about €1.15. A
year ago it was worth €1.35.
The currency's continuing weakness has been
accentuated by the cut in interest rates and the
Bank of England's economic stimulus measures.
One of the most immediate consequences of
this was that it made foreign holidays more
expensive for British tourists, while it has also
increased import costs for manufacturers (see
Trade below).
However, one beneficiary of cheaper sterling
has been the UK's own tourism sector, as a
weaker pound makes Britain a cheaper
destination for overseas tourists. The travel
analytics firm ForwardKeys says flight bookings
to the UK rose 7.1% after the vote.
Caissa Touristic, a tour operator specialising in
Chinese travel to Europe, says it's seen a 20%
increase in enquiries and bookings for the UK
this summer compared with the same period
last year, while Irish no-frills airline Ryanair says
it has seen a rise in overseas visitors travelling to
London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and
Scotland.
Negotiations
Mrs May has met some other EU leaders
including Germany's Angela Merkel and French
president Francois Hollande, but formal
negotiations on the UK's departure from, and its
future relationship with, the EU have yet to
start. EU leaders have said Article 50 of the
Lisbon Treaty - which sets in place a two-year
exit process - must be triggered before
negotiations can begin.
The government has not yet set out in detail
what it wants from the talks, with reported
differences between key figures on the balance
between free trade and immigration curbs. Mrs
May has said she will not trigger Article 50
before the start of 2017 at the earliest.
Hate crime
There's clear evidence of a spike in hate crime
since the 23 June ballot. Reported hate crime
rose by 57% in the four days after the
referendum, police say.
Some 3,219 hate crimes and incidents - alleged
to have taken place between 16-30 June - were
reported to police forces across England, Wales
and Northern Ireland, according to revised
figures published by the National Police Chiefs'
Council. This represented a 37% increase
compared with the same period in 2015.
The next reporting period, from 1-14, July, saw
3,235 reports of hate crimes and incidents. This
was up only 0.5% on the previous fortnight but
it was still a 29% increase on the same period in
2015.
And 15-28 July saw 3,236 reports - virtually
unchanged on the previous fortnight and up
40% on the same period the previous year.
Police Scotland, however, has said this rise in
reports has not been witnessed north of the
border.
It's impossible to tell to what extent the spike
was about a rise in reporting and to what extent
it was about a rise in actual incidents. What we
do know is that most hate crimes typically go
unreported. The government has announced a
plan to tackle hate crime in England and Wales
and police handling of such incidents will be
reviewed. |
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