Asiwaju Bola Tinubu should review history of Yoruba dealings with core north and be wary of any pre-mature political war, writes OLAWALE RASHEED.

Abuja-October 3,2016-The battle cry across Yorubaland in the last few days calls for closer introspection than what one is reading. Statements of elders and leaders demonstrate eagerness and impetuousness to push for political war.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is been prodded to go to war. From all angles, the drumbeat is becoming louder. Even Asiwaju openly danced to that war tunes recently in Lagos. Like a Clinton bating Donald Trump, many unseen forces are preparing ground for mutual implosion.
Should Asiwaju go to war?

That is a million naira question. Yoruba have had many war heroes.The race has also produced many political generals who fought and conquered in far Northern and eastern enclaves. Those heroes possess strengths and weaknesses. They are never perfect and elements of their negative sides were often exploited at the zenith of the ascendance.The case of Asiwaju Tinubu is not different.

The ringtone everywhere is about political betrayal.Even when the allegation is an inter- twined web of conspiracy, the context should not be lost on all stakeholders in Yorubaland. The Hausa Fulani political leadership have had a long chequered history with the Yoruba people. The decades of rivalry and mistrust pervade the thinking of even the most enlightened in the two regions. The unexplained contradiction is that the two regions of all other regions at least have religious afinnity which should probably guarantees seamless alliance. But reverse has been the case.

When key northern leaders opted for former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999, they had their reason which was largely misinterpreted by many. The ticket was not for the Yoruba race but for the surviving leader of the military political elite. Hence the former leader ruled in line with the interest of his class. Even when they had issues with him,they discovered a brotherhood way of thrasing the disagreements.

Hence the Otta farmer today retained that grand position of undisputed patron of that powerful class.One can say that even when Asiwaju was remodelling President Muhammadu Buhari for the 2015 race, he was only a potent instrument in the complicated power game. The man who understood the scheming more happened to be the Otta farmer.

Even at that, Asiwaju played a very smart one as he was able to secure a major concession that yielded the Vice Presidency of the republic. Agreed he was stopped midway into enjoying the full rewards of his efforts, his subsisting gains are enormous and far reaching. Serious rumination must arise therefore between destroying/abandoning those gains or playing the power game in which he is an adept.

I had always read over the story of late Bashorun MKO Abiola,especially the bating and intrigues preceding his declaring himself the president.
I had always checked through how the late Are Ona Kakanfo (Generalismo) was unknowingly tricked or persuaded through what many with benefits of hindsight now considered several layers of bobby traps. If populist MKO had thread another line, may be he will still be alive today.

There is this funny side to this serious affair.Late MKO is a believer in a reconnection and unification between the north and the west. His trust in the depth of his longstanding brotherhood with Arewa leaders gave him a sense of security during the June 12 crisis. Was he betrayed or he concorted a false sense of security complicating the conflict ?

Students of history should also be amused by the story of two Yoruba leaders -late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Samuel Ladoke Akintola. Rightly or wrongly, how to approach possibility of northern alliance was the crux of their disagreement and political confrontation which eventually defined the First Republic.

From then till now,Yorubas have always been bitterly divided when rapproachment with the Arewas is placed on the table. There has never been a consensus on the subject as the distrust between core north and western region runs so deep that successor generation inherited that phobia. The Awolowo- Akintola disagreement on the issue still lingers among old political leaders within Yoruba land.
Yet there is even more grave section of Yoruba history that all should read and apply to the present scenario-the history of Afonja ,the Yoruba Generalisimo who hosted Late Sheikh Alimi(RTA).Asiwaju is not Afonja and President Buhari is not Sheikh Alimi. Yet there is a lesson to learn in the story of the two leaders.

The issue of rapproachment between the North and West were hotly debated during the last polls. All the risks were listed; all the likely consequences were itemised. The strong link between Asiwaju and PMB was a calculated gamble which some neutral analysts felt has paid off for the two men.
Asiwaju took a risk;the returns may be 50 percent or more but it is not by all accounts a failed bankrupted business. Warnings were issued pre-2015 just as some chiefs were said to have warned Afonja on his association with Sheikh Alimi(RTA). When the Islamic scholar decided to embrace Islamic government in collaboration with Islamic leaders he met on ground, Afonja waged a devastating war. The result is openly manifest till now.

Many questions were asked. Could Afonja had avoided going to war with Sheikh Alimi(RTA)? Did Afonja fully studied the vast strengths of Alimi before launching that war? If Afonja had not battle Alimi, what would have been the consequences?
Today Asiwaju is a leader of vast accomplishments,an institution with economic, political and social clout no Yoruba man can wished away. He stands tall by the vast arrays of men and women he has propelled to greatness and by the sterling outcomes of his political adventures at the national level. Even at this Olympic height of success,the enemies are ever lurking around the corner.

But unlike Afonja, Akintola and Abiola, he is not an Are Ona Kakanfo (a titled generalisimo), exposed to fabled mystical impetousness.
Should Asiwaju rise against federal might? Should he battle a President he laboured to instal? Should he sacrifice his loyal man, Osinbajo in an ego battle? What are his options?

Continue here.
http://sahelstandard.com/index.php/2016/10/03/asiwaju-tinubu-avoiding-another-afonja-alimi-war/

Hmmm

Na them them

He should hold his cards close to his chest till the appropriate time because enemies plotting his downfall boku plenty, and he should watch his back.

Buhari and Tinubu share one common trait - absolute despotism.

Sooner or later, this similar trait will lead to a battle for supremacy within the APC.

As things stand now, buhari holds all the aces.

If Tinubu dares even criticise buhari constructively , that will be enough reason for Buhari to deal once and all with the Tinubu question.

Buhari is no fool and he knows Tinubu goes around claiming to be the king maker.

And Tinubu can bet his last gbana weed that buhari has more than enough judases to draw from Tinubu's camp.

As far as I am concerned it is just a matter of time before Buhari moves in to clip tinubu's wings and the best thing is that there will be many waiting to do the deed for Buhari from Tinubu's people and very few who will cry for him.

KwaraRat:
Buhari and Tinubu share one common trait - absolute despotism.

Sooner or later, this similar trait will lead to a battle for supremacy within the APC.

As things stand now, buhari holds all the aces.

If Tinubu dares even criticise buhari constructively , that will be enough reason for Buhari to deal once and all with the Tinubu question.

Buhari is no fool and he knows Tinubu goes around claiming to be the king maker.

And Tinubu can bet his last gbana weed that buhari has more than enough judases to draw from Tinubu's camp.

As far as I am concerned it is just a matter of time before Buhari moves in to clip tinubu's wings and the best thing is that there will be many waiting to do the deed for Buhari from Tinubu's people and very few who will cry for him.

Your hatred for Tinubu is palpable, but your likes have been predicting his downfall for decades but as always you will end up disappointed.

Afonja lolsss

afroniger:


Your hatred for Tinubu is palpable, but your likes have been predicting his downfall for decades but as always you will end up disappointed.

[size=18pt]Denial is a Nijeriyan[/size]

The human mind has a primitive ego defense mechanism that negates all realities that produce too much stress for the brain to handle. It’s called Denial.

For eons mankind evolved and stumbled around in the midst of great catastrophic disasters and were once considered staple food for predators.

We survived the ice age not because we were able to adapt physically or develop necessary skills to cope with the great shift in climate but because our brains blocked off existential and impending doom ahead of us. Rather than focus on the daunting task ahead we chose daily chores and tasks from finding shelter, food and whatnot. We essentially survived because we played the ostrich and carried on as if there was no problem. This is one of the only benefits to which self denial can grant the human existence.

Keep Calm & Carry On

Mankind has always found denial as a necessary defense mechanism in dealing with Armageddon. We keep postponing the date and with that we have grown more arrogant. With arrogance comes pride and with pride comes a great fall.

Denial is thus a critical part of the human coping mechanism. A sort of bio delay switch that keeps us from flicking the suicide button.

I will thus define denial as the degree of optimism.

While it is good to have an optimistic view on life it will be foolhardy to negate reality and facts to the foreground in dealing with a challenge.

Nigerians are by far the most optimistic people. They have no choice on this. It is either they keep on hoping and denying the daunting challenges they face daily or they end up going mad.

We have all read the Stats that states that well over 40% of Lagosians face one form of mental disorder. If it were not for denial in the form of hope we can rightly predict the chances of majority of Lagosians will be roaming the streets outright mad.

Bearing this in mind, we see Nigerians still hoping and denying the realities on ground.

They deny the ongoing islamization agenda even in the midst of a jihadist campaign raging in the north east. They are quick to accept the official narrative from the buhari govt that the ongoing genocide by fulani herdsmen is the handwork of Libyans.

This is inspite of all solid facts ,evidence and historical antecedents that proves that there is indeed a northern islamization agenda.

Foolishly they still deny reality.
Your average Nijeriyan is no different than a wildebeest herd.

Constantly harassed by larger Predators day and night, the herbivores of the Serengeti have always appeared to live a terrorised life when viewed from a human perspective. But contrary to how we humans see the large games of the savanah, the harassment they constantly face from hyenas and lions are more of a nuisance to them as their primary concern is to find suitable grazing fields and get down to the business of procreation.

This is God's grand design for animals of prey. They exist in constant denial of the threats that loom beyond the tall golden grass. Without that denial, the wildebeest will probably not bother grazing talk more of procreating.

I see a lot of self induced myopia instigated by a mind in denial among Nijeriyans especially among those who I expect to know better. For some reason the threat is so overwhelming that the simply wish it away and where it appears inevitable they resort to hope as a final solace. "It can't happen to me and my family"; "It is not our portion". These are what herded or animals in a group, flock or school of fish rely on as a last defence mechanism. The strength of numbers and the sacrifice of those in the outer realms of the herd gives the members solace.

So in so many ways, those who refuse to see the reality are those who are in denial of the threat and who arrogate a sense of immunity from the same threat on the very hope that some others will have to be sacrificed for them to live.

This is the life of a rat and not a man.




On Niger Delta Insurgency

Oil can never sustain Nigeria. It never did and it never ever will but some Nigerians still believe in the status quo even though they never benefited from the nationalization of oil wealth.

To this set of Nigerians, Oil has always been part of Nigeria's wealth and they see no way outside it. And when threats of secession and/or demands by Militants in the ND for more resource control, these same set of Denialists who have never ever benefited directly from this skewed centralized arrangement of wealth distribution that puts the Niger Delta last before other regions not minding that the wealth comes from the same Niger Delta region, we see them fretting and threatening genocide to keep the same corrupt and unjust arrangement in place.

This my friends is what Denial is all about.
https://www.nairaland.com/3384192/grand-delusions-denial

afroniger:

You deny yourself the truth to live one more day in fantasy land.

Just like Asiwaju is denying he has been used and dumped.

Atiku has more ground with Buhari than Tinubu can ever dream of. And you know that Atiku will be constantly reminding Buhari to be wary of Tinubu.

If you like Bury your head in the sand it won't change the reality on ground.

This is really loading war

afroniger:


Your hatred for Tinubu is palpable, but your likes have been predicting his downfall for decades but as always you will end up disappointed.

Yes we are disappointed he the asiwaju we thought couldn't he used and dumped was actually used and dumped again.
His last lifeline is the mere commissioner stooge he managed to implant.

Coward n a looot

Thiis is super story

Change the change

And so the plot continues to thicken.Tinubu is in for it.Afonjaism is the most chronic component of zombiesm.