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$29.9billion Loan :- Nairalanders Let's Have Your Opinion - Politics - Nairaland

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$29.9billion Loan :- Nairalanders Let's Have Your Opinion by Teewhy2: 9:06pm On Nov 07, 2016
It is not longer news that the government is planning to borrow $29.9 billion to revive the country.
The Senate is suggesting a public hearing on this issue, since we all know the corruption level in the country and the way the economy has been unstable due to government policy.
Let's use this great platform to push our opinion to the people in government concerning the loan issue. I know that if we can get above 500 posts our opinion we will be taking serious.
Kindly respond below if you are in support or against the loan and give reason for your decision.

Re: $29.9billion Loan :- Nairalanders Let's Have Your Opinion by babniyen(m): 9:23pm On Nov 07, 2016
What I would to know is the repayment plan. To also ensure that we are not recolonized economically. Repayment duration?
Re: $29.9billion Loan :- Nairalanders Let's Have Your Opinion by 4Play(m): 10:47pm On Nov 07, 2016
I was in the midst of writing a long epistle about this issue but was forced to reconsider the more I thought about it. Firstly, I do not think the FG will be able to secure the external loans it is asking for unless it embarks on deep structural reforms (the sort of structural adjustment programmes demanded by the IMF). This was touched upon in the following FT article:

But Abuja is now facing calls from the IMF and World Bank to push through further reforms. These discussions have held up any agreement on a loan from the bank, said people briefed on the talks.

They added that the World Bank had said it would not be able to disburse any loans until 2017 at the earliest because it “has not yet received the macroeconomic framework” needed for the discussions to progress, though the finance ministry disputes that.
https://www.ft.com/content/4ed37f18-8885-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1

These loans may be a halfway house between formally requesting for an IMF bailout (with all the associated conditionalities) and maintaining some semblance of autonomy. If this is the case, the loans would be adminstered and monitored by multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank which would provide some safeguards against corruption.

Beyond this point, I do have an agnostic view towards external loans as my post below made in December 2013 argues (the exchange rate examples used, N160 to $1, are antiquated given today's reality).

4Play:

The pitfalls of external debts should be obvious. It was external debt that birthed SAP and culminated in the erosion of living standards in the 80s which is unprecedented in the country's history. The main problem with external debt is the exchange rate risk as follows:

Supposing you borrow $10bn in 2007, assuming an exchange rate of N100 to $1, giving a debt of N1 trillion when converted to Naira. If exchange rates move against you, say it now takes N160 to buy $1, you suddenly have a debt of 1.6 trillion Naira. Many underestimate how exchange rates can deteriorate quickly. In the 70s to the 80s and I stand to be corrected, we went from 60 Kobo to $1 to in excess 2 Naira to $1 pretty rapidly, that would amount to a multiplication of the debt burden by more than a factor of 3. The funny thing is that the bigger your external debt burden, the quicker the deterioration in exchange rates because money has to leave the country to service the debt. Imagine what that does to the inflation rate and the living standards of Nigerians as much of what we consume is imported. High inflation brings about high interest rates which dampens the supply of credit to the private sector. The negative spiral is relentless and we have witnessed it before.

So, it's actually likely that from issuance to maturity, an internal bond denominated in Naira is cheaper for the Nigerian Govt than an external bond denominated in US dollars for instance. Almost all sovereign debt crisis occurs in countries borrowing in currencies that they do not control - Greece, Portugal, Spain, Zimbabwe, Ireland, e.t.c.

External debt is good in the short term but incredibly dangerous in the long term. The talk about borrowing in Naira crowding out local borrowers assumes that there is strong domestic private sector demand. If there is such strong demand, then the economy is doing well and it undercuts the opposition's argument.

Listening to and reading policy debates in Nigeria, it's almost like the 80s never happened. Those who refuse to learn from history are bound to repeat it.
Source:https://www.nairaland.com/1563336/must-read-reps-50-questions/2

PS: The FG failed to secure the external financing it sought for the 2016 budget which was a "mere" $4.5bn. The likelihood it will be able to secure circa $30bn as planned seem remote.

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Re: $29.9billion Loan :- Nairalanders Let's Have Your Opinion by Teewhy2: 6:03am On Nov 08, 2016
Let's more honest opinions, we might generate enough post that might be used as reference of discussion on the Senate decision.
This decision that the government is about to take might have a direct or indirect effect on our future and the next generation.
Uncle lalasticlala I know this is not a snake post but help us to get more views as this post might be an important one for many nairalanders.

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