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The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by HQuadreal: 1:15pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
Prof Allan Lichtman, professor of History at American University has predicted the results of all presidential elections in America correctly since 1984. And he keeps his record of correct predictions intact. However, if one goes by Lichtman’s approach then the election result is more a rejection of President Obama and the Democratic party than an approval for Trump. As Lichtman says here to CBS, presidential elections are “not decided by the turns of the campaigns, the speeches, the debates, the fundraising. Rather, presidential elections are fundamentally reference on the performance of the party holding the White House. If that performance is good enough, they get four more years. If it’s not, they’re turned out and the challenging part wins.” Lichtman bases his prediction on 13 parametres. 1. Party Mandate : After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. 2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. 6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. 9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 10 Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Now, with an actual Trump victory, maybe Lichtman’s ideas can be used to assess the Obama legacy and its impact on this presidential election. Source=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/ 1 Share
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Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by Kingbuhari(m): 1:39pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
Mr professor only you sabi your conspiracy theory.... |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by HQuadreal: 1:40pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
Kingbuhari:Help me ask am ooo. |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by Edwinmason(m): 2:21pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
i never believe him the day i watched him on CNN |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by HQuadreal: 2:23pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
Edwinmason:Eyaaah but now you don believe abi ? |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by Nobody: 2:48pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
TB. Joshua should respectfully consult him 1 Like |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by Edwinmason(m): 2:59pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
HQuadreal:e clear for my eye |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by HQuadreal: 4:48pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
EVILFOREST:On Your Own ooo. |
Re: The Man Who Has Been Predicting Winner's Of America Election Since 1984 (Photos) by HQuadreal: 4:49pm On Nov 10, 2016 |
Edwinmason:That Good. |
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