Prof Allan Lichtman, professor of History at American University has predicted the results of all presidential elections in America correctly since 1984.

And he keeps his record of correct predictions intact.

However, if one goes by Lichtman’s approach then
the election result is more a rejection of President
Obama and the Democratic party than an approval
for Trump.

As Lichtman says here to CBS, presidential elections are “not decided by the turns of the campaigns, the speeches, the debates, the fundraising. Rather, presidential elections are fundamentally reference on the performance of the party holding the White House.

If that performance is good enough, they get four more years. If it’s not, they’re turned out and the challenging part wins.” Lichtman bases his prediction on 13 parametres.


1. Party Mandate :
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party
holds more seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives than after the previous midterm
elections.


2. Contest:
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party
nomination.


3. Incumbency:
The incumbent party candidate is the sitting
president.


4. Third party:
There is no significant third party or independent
campaign.


5. Short-term economy:
The economy is not in recession during the election
campaign.


6. Long-term economy:
Real per-capita economic growth during the term
equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous
two terms.


7. Policy change:
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.


8. Social unrest:
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.


9. Scandal:
The incumbent administration is untainted by major
scandal. 10 Foreign/military failure: The incumbent
administration suffers no major failure in foreign or
military affairs.


11. Foreign/military success:
The incumbent administration achieves a major
success in foreign or military affairs.


12. Incumbent charisma:
The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a
national hero.


13. Challenger charisma:
The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Now, with an actual Trump victory, maybe
Lichtman’s ideas can be used to assess the Obama
legacy and its impact on this presidential election.



Source=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

Mr professor only you sabi your conspiracy theory....

Kingbuhari:
Mr professor only you sabi your conspiracy theory....

Help me ask am ooo.

i never believe him the day i watched him on CNN

Edwinmason:
i never believe him the day i watched him on CNN

Eyaaah but now you don believe abi ?

TB. Joshua should respectfully consult him

HQuadreal:
Eyaaah but now you don believe abi ?

e clear for my eye

EVILFOREST:
TB. Joshua should respectfully consult him

On Your Own ooo.

Edwinmason:
e clear for my eye

That Good.