Most nairalanders seem to have nostalgic view of the past before oil was discovered in Nigeria saying it was better economicly. I don't know if that's true since the oil helped Nigeria grow many fold. From what I can tell Nigeria was a mono economy then as well except the theme was agriculture.

Anyway agriculture isn't the way foward because it's not a big deal from imports stand point. It's very minor I terms of cost per year and percentage of total imports. Agricultural is also very minor in terms of our exporting potential aswell. Since we bearly take care of our domestic needs.

Industrialization is the answer people in Nigeria should be looking towards. The biggest drain on forex is actually machinery, chemical products, mineral products. All these things cold be manufactured domesticly at lower cost if there was electricity. These are better to focus on long term because our neighbors within west africa import these same thing primarily.

If we focus on this we could strengthen our foothold on manufacuting we would enjoy billions in savings and billions in exports to fellow Ecowas members. Please note strengthening agricultural base would be beneficial to economic diversification.

Sources:

http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/report/472
http://www.worldstopexports.com/nigerias-top-10-imports/

either way you look at it agriculture is the way forward. Establish your self as selfsuficient food producer and integrate the whole value chain (production, processing etc) and you have a guaranteed export market for eons to come. Any other industrialization trajectory we follow beside agriculture is subject to structural and cyclical shocks in the global economy. Its kind of twisted, but agriculture is a beautiful thing

op u try ....but we need both


u know adequate agriculture leads to industrilization

Maisuya1:
either way you look at it agriculture is the way forward. Establish your self as selfsuficient food producer and integrate the whole value chain (production, processing etc) and you have a guaranteed export market for eons to come. Any other industrialization trajectory we follow beside agriculture is subject to structural and cyclical shocks in the global economy. Its kind of twisted, but agriculture is a beautiful thing

I agree that's why I didn't dismiss it completely. I mention at end it's is important for diversification if our economy. I just don't like the nostalgia glasses everyone puts on when addressing subject. Food is actually subject to same sort volatility due to the facts it's a commodity. It's just to lesser degree since everyone needs to eat.

Our focus should be exporting foof to Benin republic and Niger republic. They are still on subsistence mode of production. If Niger republic already depends on Nigeria for food secruity. I need to make post about then since Niger and nigeria relations are pretty interesting.

Manufacturing can be cyclical to business cycle I agree with as well. I just think long term it's more profitable. Especially if all the African nations mainly import machinery. The market opertuinity is huge.

Godprotectigbos:



op u try ....w need both


but agriculture leads to industrilization

Lol I said same thing. The title was to get your attention. My main point was our main focus should be on industrilization.

Agriculture does lead to industrilization. We already have strong enough base that our population can be feed relatively well. That's why giant cities like Lagos can exist. The industry is next step.

Blue3k:
Please note strengthin agricultural base would be beneficial to economic diversification.

I know some of you didn't take time to read the statistics link. I just want bump thread give some more numbers make it very obvious how industrialization is key. Read full report for previous years since it's goes back to 2013. Go back to previous releases if you want to grasp trend better.

Nigeria 2016 Q3 imports:

If you add all the food products it adds up to (naira million) 372,220.16 (note I added hides as well).

The chemicals, boilers and vehicle parts add up to (naira million) 828,972.36. (Note that' not everything that's counted as manufactured products)

Base metal and mineral products add up to be (naira million) 456,786.3 .

Now let's look our ECOWAS partners imports (excluding mineral products).

Ghana 2014: Machines Import Value$2.43B, Chemical Products Import Value$1.36B, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $824M, Textiles Import Value$782M, Paper Goods Import Value $361M.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $954M, Animal Products, Import Value $434M, Vegetable Products Import Value $584M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $246M, Animal Hides Import Value $87.8M

GUINEA 2014: Machines
Import Value$514M, Chemical Products Import Value$213M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value$133M, Textiles, Import Value$181M, Paper Goods Import Value$44.8M.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs
Import Value$314M, Vegetable Products Import Value $414M, Animal Hides Import Value $8.89M, Wood Products Import Value $6.32M , Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $56.7M

BENIN: Machines Import Value $691M, Chemical Products Import Value $364M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $122M, Paper Goods Import Value $55.2M,Transportation Import Value $1.15B.

Agricultural imports: Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value$448M, Animal Products Import Value$595M, Foodstuffs Import Value $353M, Vegetable Products Import Value $755, Animal Hides Import Value $47.3M.

Burkina Faso 2014: Paper Goods Import Value $50.9M Textiles, Import Value $78.9M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $139M, Chemical Products Import Value $449M Machines,Import Value $534M.

Agricultural imports: Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value$37.4M, Wood Products Import Value $11.8M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $37.4M, Food stuffs Import Value $275M, Vegetable Products Import Value $176M.

Cabo Verde 2014: Machines Import Value$157M, Chemical Products Import Value$45.2M, Plastics and Rubbers
Import Value$30.4M, Paper Goods Import Value$18.2M, Textiles Import Value $13.1M, Paper Goods Import Value $18.2.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $79.2M, Animal Products Import Value $69.9M, Wood Products Import Value $12.4M,Vegetable Products Import Value $60.9M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $18.2M

Cote d'Ivoire 2014: Chemical Products Import Value $1.12B, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $525M, Machines Import Value $1.54B, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $525M, Paper Goods Import Value $185M, Textiles Import Value $530M

Agricultural imports: Vegetable Products Import Value $730M, Foodstuffs Import Value $563M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $86.6M, Foodstuffs Import Value$563M, Wood Products Import Value $11.9M, Animal Hides Import Value $10.6M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products
Import Value $86.6M.

Togo: Machines Import Value $659M, Chemical Products Import Value $566M, Textiles Import Value $1.41B, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $173M, Paper Goods Import Value $71.7M.

Agricultural imports 2014: Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $257M, Vegetable Products Import Value $248M, Foodstuffs Import Value $352M, Animal Hides Import Value $38.4M, Animal Products Import Value $70.5M, Wood Products Import Value $2.98M.

Sierra Leone 2014: Machines Import Value $363M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $127M, Chemical Products Import Value $146M,Textiles Import Value $79.7M, Paper Goods Import Value $25.5M.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $179M, Vegetable Products Import Value $149M, Animal Products Import Value $44.3M, Animal Hides
Import Value $5.53M, Wood Products Import Value $7.67M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $26.5M.

Senegal: Machines Import Value $1.07B, Chemical Products Import Value $619M, Textiles Import Value $333M, Paper Goods Import Value $148M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $277M,

Agricultural imports: Vegetable Products Import Value $823M, Foodstuffs Import Value $468M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $189M, Wood Products Import Value $69.5M, Animal Hides Import Value $9.82M, Animal Products Import Value $139M

Gambia 2014:Textiles Import Value $271M, Machines Import Value $97.2M, Chemical Products Import Value $65.9M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $40.6M, Paper Goods Import Value $16.5M.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $187M, Vegetable Products Import Value $115M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $78.9M, Animal Hides Import Value $2.04M, Animal Products Import Value $40.9M, Animal Hides Import Value $2.04M, Wood Products
Import Value $9.46M

Mali: Machines Import Value $463M,Chemical Products Import Value $364M, Textiles Import Value $327M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $119M, Paper Goods Import Value $24.6M.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $73M, Vegetable Products Import Value $35.2M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $12M, Animal Products Import Value $9.24M, Wood Products Import Value $1.12M, Animal Hides Import Value $354k.

Niger: Machines Import Value $476M, Chemical Products Import Value $249M, Textiles Import Value $113M, Paper Goods Import Value $15.6M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $54.7M

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $216M, Textiles Import Value $113M, Vegetable Products Import Value $189M, Animal Products
Import Value $68.1M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $73M, Wood Products Import Value $17.2M, Animal Hides Import Value $1.72M

Guinea-Bissau: Machines Import Value $35.3M, Chemical Products Import Value $19.8M, Textiles Import Value $9.42M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $9.26M, Paper Goods Import Value $3.8M.

Agricultural imports: Foodstuffs Import Value $73M, Vegetable Products Import Value $35.2M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products
Import Value $12M, Animal Products Import Value $9.24M, Animal Hides Import Value $354k, Wood Products Import Value $1.12M.

This one of the few countries that import more food then manufactured goods. If you include Refined Petroleum imports it becomes the trend stays the same. (Mineral Products Import Value $131M)

Liberia: Machines Import Value $491M, Chemical Products Import Value $101M, Paper Goods Import Value $14M, Plastics and Rubbers Import Value $56.8M, Textiles Import Value $46.8M.

Agricultural imports: Vegetable Products Import Value $136M, Foodstuffs Import Value $91.8M, Animal Products Import Value $62.7M, Animal and Vegetable Bi-Products Import Value $25M, Animal Hides Import Value $1.42M, Wood Products Import Value $5.43M.

Most interesting case they import mostly ships. Another manufactured good with import value $3.97B.

Sources:

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gha/#Imports

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/gin/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ben/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/bfa/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/civ/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/tgo/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/sle/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/sen/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/gmb/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/mli/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/ner/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/gnb/all/show/2014/

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/lbr/all/show/2014/

I totally agree; even if we diversify through agriculture,we will have to face economic factors like value of our currency which would determine the cost of our exports abroad,we will have to contend with countries who have relatively cheaper exports.

I think we should focus on industry,all other sectors will experience a boom.

Think we should start from our public secondary school laboratories and their physics teachers.
I am enjoying the thread.

EVarn:
I totally agree; even if we diversify through agriculture,we will have to face economic factors like value of our currency which would determine the cost of our exports abroad,we will have to contend with countries who have relatively cheaper exports.

I think we should focus on industry,all other sectors will experience a boom.

Agreed and the best thing is our currency already weak compared to who most of our ECOWAS partners trade. They do business with Europeans and Americans.

spyglaxx:
Think we should start from our public secondary school laboratories and their physics teachers.
I am enjoying the thread.

Thank you.

Basically all the data points to Industrialization being the better play long term for the Nigerian economy. If you look at the trend all the African countries import more manufactured goods then agriculture. A lot of our ECOWAS partners export food already. Next thing to see is that all the trade balances are negative across board for Every ECOWAS member states. The main trade partners with the ECOWAS counties is usually Europe and Asian countries in terms of importation. We would have advantage over all of their current partners with weaker currency and having Economic ties within ECOWAS framework.

Yes farming will be beneficial in diversification of economy. The issue with farming currently is a lot of the farming in Nigeria is subsistence. Greater initiatives in mechanization will pay dividends in future. Farming will always have its place but it wont go back to old days either when Nigeria was mono agricultural economy.

Another big point to see in data that I left is that all the ECOWAS countries import a lot of Refined petroleum and it is not from us primary. If our refining capacity was higher to fuel our needs then export we would have potential billions their as well. Point is oil not going anywhere yet. Even if it is time sell all of it while its still valuable to world. Then transportation seems to be big on list aswell.

African countries dont focus much on getting hire returns in the value chain. If that is emphasized Nigeria would be in a big advantage regionally. Think about it in terms of agriculture. Nigeria exports a high amount of tomato and imports tomato paste. If the machinery and productive capacity was focused on odd thing like that would happen less.

Last point to circle back to long term benefits since everyone loves talking supply chains. The north regions would benefit since its known the have vast mineral deposits of various metals scattered among the states. This could give rise to mining industry that would have to feed the manufacturing. that would complement the farming they already do.

(hopefully all these facts convinces any doubters)

Everything points to leadership and leadership. We need leaders who do not find elixir in commissioning ordinary transformers but in systemic transformation.

spyglaxx:
Everything points to leadership and leadership. We need leaders who do not find elixir in commissioning ordinary transformers but in systemic transformation.

you nko. Wetin do your leadership talent. Seriously, it's up to us. These old miggas've tapped out teytey

Short run has to be reached first.
Savings required for industrial push.
600 bn saved in wheat can go into off grid private industrial estates .
No matter how you slice it, agric still important

Blue3k:
I know some of you /

of course it's key, but it depends on Nepa. We can never industrialise with Nepa in charge. So we need to go off grid. That is some expensive shii .
Requires savings from...... You guessed it, agric. Over 1 trillion in wheat rice fish oil and milk being imported. That 1 trillion could jump start industrialisation via industrial parks, estates, clusters

Blue3k:


Lol I said same thing. The title was to get your attention. My main point was our main focus should be on industrilization.

Agriculture does lead to industrilization. We already have strong enough base that our population can be feed relatively well. That's why giant cities like Lagos can exist. The industry is next step.

Unless we manufacture 4 local consumption and export,nigeria can never be rich.but the lazy politicians will always shout agric,agric.agric has never lift any large country out of poverty.

obaaderemi:
Unless we manufacture 4 local consumption and export,nigeria can never be rich.but the lazy politicians will always shout agric,agric.agric has never lift any large country out of poverty.

Politicians play towards bias of people. Thanks for agreeing. I do think Nigerian politicians will see the light eventually. If I can see this pulling their own statistics they should as well.

Cromagnon:
of course it's key, but it depends on Nepa. We can never industrialise with Nepa in charge. So we need to go off grid. That is some expensive shii .
Requires savings from...... You guessed it, agric. Over 1 trillion in wheat rice fish oil and milk being imported. That 1 trillion could jump start industrialisation via industrial parks, estates, clusters

Probably could withe oil. I know your hissing. Think for a second the fact is our biggest import besides these machines that I left off is mineral products. These mineral products are refined petroleum. If refineries were operating at max capacity it would be big stepping stone.

If you think agriculture could help I agree. I'm all for diversification. If the farming become more commercial less subsistence sure.

I plan to write topic on grid and agriculture relating to northern Nigeria after I finish the research. Northern Nigeria productivity has latent potential.

Blue3k:


Politicians play towards bias of people. Thanks for agreeing. I do think Nigerian politicians will see the light eventually. If I can see this pulling their own statistics they should as well.

why we should become politicians instead

Probably could withe oil. I know your hissing. Think for a second the fact is our biggest import besides these machines that I left off is mineral products. These mineral products are refined petroleum. If refineries were operating at max capacity it would be big stepping stone.
still chicken or the egg situation
If you think agriculture could help I agree. I'm all for diversification. If the farming become more commercial less subsistence sure.
before nko
Obviously (although hack de sha o)
I plan to write topic on grid and agriculture relating to northern Nigeria after I finish the research. Northern Nigeria productivity has latent potential.

doin not writing is the issue now. Enough writing. Awolowo spoke about writing since the white man was in charge. Time for action

Cromagnon:
doin not writing is the issue now. Enough writing. Awolowo spoke about writing since the white man was in charge. Time for action

Lol I already invest (stocks). Hope your doing same.

Blue3k:


Lol I already invest (stocks). Hope your doing same.

planning to start farming while trying to work my way up political ladder

While I agree that Nigeria has to look towards industry rather than agriculture in the longer-term, I don't really see that there's a need to choose between the two fields of activity in the near term. The fact is that the issues which plague Nigerian agriculture are largely the same ones plaguing industry: poor transport facilities, lack of access to investment, insecure property rights, and endless demands for bribes from every quarter.

If a Nigerian government ever came to power that was serious about deregulation (e.g. allowing mobile vendors to go into e-banking, like they already do with M-Pesa in Kenya), and it adopted a transparently free-floating currency regime with more effort put into fighting inflation, foreign money would flow into the Nigerian economy, allowing both farmers and manufacturers to get more credit, and at more affordable rates.

If the Nigerian government deregulated the rail sector and strengthened property rights by reforming or abolishing the Land Use Act, foreign investors would be more willing to pour money into building out 100% privately-run railways, which would allow both farmers and manufacturers to get their goods to market cheaper and more quickly. The same benefits would result from selling off the airports and seaports to foreign investors with the funds and expertise to run them far better than any Nigerian government ever has.

Privately-run grids with higher investment than TCN would get reliable power to both farmers and manufacturers, and at a far lower cost per energy unit than running generators would manage. Farmers with reliable power could go into value-added activities like milling their own wheat into flour, using their own cocoa to manufacture beverages, etc. In other words, this assistance to agriculture would end up aiding the transition of the more enterprising farmers into manufacturing.

In short, I think that a government with the right policy priorities would see a boom in both economic sectors, and while manufacturing would have the greater long-term potential, there wouldn't be any need for special government intervention to encourage that potential to be realized. It's not that Nigeria is lacking in ambitious people who want to get into manufacturing, it's just that they've been held back by decades of harmful policy-making by corrupt and incompetent leaders.

I believe a marriage of industrialization and agriculture is what will do most of the work of making Nigeria better.

Agro allied industrialization that will add value to agricultural produce.

omohayek:
While I agree that Nigeria has to look towards industry rather than agriculture in the longer-term, I don't really see that there's a need to choose between the two fields of activity in the near term. The fact is that the issues which plague Nigerian agriculture are largely the same ones plaguing industry: poor transport facilities, lack of access to investment, insecure property rights, and endless demands for bribes from every quarter.

If a Nigerian government ever came to power that was serious about deregulation (e.g. allowing mobile vendors to go into e-banking, like they already do with M-Pesa in Kenya), and it adopted a transparently free-floating currency regime with more effort put into fighting inflation, foreign money would flow into the Nigerian economy, allowing both farmers and manufacturers to get more credit, and at more affordable rates.

If the Nigerian government deregulated the rail sector and strengthened property rights by reforming or abolishing the Land Use Act, foreign investors would be more willing to pour money into building out 100% privately-run railways, which would allow both farmers and manufacturers to get their goods to market cheaper and more quickly. The same benefits would result from selling off the airports and seaports to foreign investors with the funds and expertise to run them far better than any Nigerian government ever has.

Privately-run grids with higher investment than TCN would get reliable power to both farmers and manufacturers, and at a far lower cost per energy unit than running generators would manage. Farmers with reliable power could go into value-added activities like milling their own wheat into flour, using their own cocoa to manufacture beverages, etc. In other words, this assistance to agriculture would end up aiding the transition of the more enterprising farmers into manufacturing.

In short, I think that a government with the right policy priorities would see a boom in both economic sectors, and while manufacturing would have the greater long-term potential, there wouldn't be any need for special government intervention to encourage that potential to be realized. It's not that Nigeria is lacking in ambitious people who want to get into manufacturing, it's just that they've been held back by decades of harmful policy-making by corrupt and incompetent leaders.

Wow excellent lost it. Buhari needs to add this to his 10 point plan. Funny thing is some of things listed is "free" enforcing property rights, not being currupt, changing business policy. The rest would require investment the first 3 spur it domestic and abroad.


@omohayek j just noticed your name play on economist name Fredrik Hayek. I should have guessed seeing your free market approach to situation.

I agree with with omohayek's opinion. If Nigeria really wants to develop its agriculture or any other sector, we need to attract capital and this capital is global. We need to make ourselves the beautiful bride of global capital. China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea all did it. A country is as prosperous as its degree of economic freedom. This is why the wealthiest and most developed countries in the world are also the easiest to do business while the poorest countries are also the most difficult to do business.

The more hostile a country becomes to free markets and private capital, the poorer it becomes. Cuba, North Korea, East Germany, Venezuela and China (until Deng Xiaoping's reforms in 1978) are examples. Little wonder, China has attracted trillions of dollars in FDI in the last 30+ years and lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. Nigeria needs to increase economic freedom by repealing anti-investment laws like the Land Use Act, Railways Act, Petroleum Act. Nigeria needs to guarantee property rights and the rule of law.

A situation where poor farmers sit on valuable agricultural land which they cannot use as security for agric loans due to lack of legally recognized ownership. Or communities sitting on vast amounts of natural resources which they cannot unlock its value due to terrible laws vesting ownership on the state (and by extension, the friends, cronies and political associates of those who control the ship of state). All of these are a consequence of such anti-investment laws and is a pointer to our lack of economic freedom.

We cannot industrialize or develop in such a scenario.

Wow you guys bumping thread are great on economic freedom issue. Im proud some people in Nigeria get the importance of these reforms.

Just like most people have pointed out, I do not think it is necessary to choose one over the other. Afterall, to scale up agricultural production, the entire value-chain would need to be industrialized.

However, a country may choose to give priority to one over the other in the near term. The simple reason would be - Comparative Advantage. In the immediate term, Nigeria is more likely to record giant strides in Agriculture than in Industries.

When you look at the factors of production (for Agriculture), you can see that we already have 2 of those factors cheaply - LAND and LABOUR - a large fallow/arable land waiting to be utilized, as well as a large number of strong unemployed youths to deploy. What we require is for more ENTREPRENEURS to wake up and for CAPITAL to be available.

In the case of industrialization, we would have to first worry about the SKILLS needed. Recall that Dangote had to send over a thousand Nigerians for training overseas just to ensure they have the right skills to run his refinery. Our entire academic curriculum needs to be reorganised to reflect current industrial & technological trends.

I am not sure we can immediately compete with China, Japan, South Korea, North America, Western Europe, etc in terms of industrialization. But, YES, I agree that (in the long term) it is the way to go for sustainable development. But, right now, Agriculture best serves our interest. The sheer number of people that Agriculture can employ will make Industries cringe in envy.
---
@omohayek, that was a brilliant exposition.

The US is an agriculturally "sound" nation. However Agric only represents 1.8% of its economy. We can pivot towards Agriculture to be self sustainable. But to really drive our economy into world class we need the service sector and industry to thrive. Let us use the US as a model which has the service sector representing >70% and industry >20% of the economy.

Bevista:
Just like most people have pointed out, I do not think it is necessary to choose one over the other. Afterall, to scale up agricultural production, the entire value-chain would need to be industrialized.

However, a country may choose to give priority to one over the other in the near term. The simple reason would be - Comparative Advantage. In the immediate term, Nigeria is more likely to record giant strides in Agriculture than in Industries.

When you look at the factors of production (for Agriculture), you can see that we already have 2 of those factors cheaply - LAND and LABOUR - a large fallow/arable land waiting to be utilized, as well as a large number of strong unemployed youths to deploy. What we require is for more ENTREPRENEURS to wake up and for CAPITAL to be available.

In the case of industrialization, we would have to first worry about the SKILLS needed. Recall that Dangote had to send over a thousand Nigerians for training overseas just to ensure they have the right skills to run his refinery. Our entire academic curriculum needs to be reorganised to reflect current industrial & technological trends.

I am not sure we can immediately compete with China, Japan, South Korea, North America, Western Europe, etc in terms of industrialization. But, YES, I agree that (in the long term) it is the way to go for sustainable development. But, right now, Agriculture best serves our interest. The sheer number of people that Agriculture can employ will make Industries cringe in envy.
---
@omohayek, that was a brilliant exposition.

We don't need to compete with China or rest of world starting out. The Tiger economies didn't. China came into big picture in 90s afters it joined WTO. They were quietly build up manufacturering since they cast of foolishness of communism is 70's.

Besides even in agriculture there's steep competition world wide. USA, brazil, East Europe, Mexico

I agree no need to choose x or y when we want to diversy. Both are nice. I just feel we have pretty nice advantage if we look to take bigger slice of ECOWAS in terms of manufacturing. They all seem to have negative trade deficit ans drain their reserves buying from European and Asians with higher currency.

I have to agree with near term agriculture since electricity issue hasn't been fixed. The skills gap issue true, polytechnics should cover that lower skill jobs (maybe).

omohayek:
While I agree that Nigeria has to look towards industry rather than agriculture in the longer-term, I don't really see that there's a need to choose between the two fields of activity in the near term. The fact is that the issues which plague Nigerian agriculture are largely the same ones plaguing industry: poor transport facilities, lack of access to investment, insecure property rights, and endless demands for bribes from every quarter.

If a Nigerian government ever came to power that was serious about deregulation (e.g. allowing mobile vendors to go into e-banking, like they already do with M-Pesa in Kenya), and it adopted a transparently free-floating currency regime with more effort put into fighting inflation, foreign money would flow into the Nigerian economy, allowing both farmers and manufacturers to get more credit, and at more affordable rates.

If the Nigerian government deregulated the rail sector and strengthened property rights by reforming or abolishing the Land Use Act, foreign investors would be more willing to pour money into building out 100% privately-run railways, which would allow both farmers and manufacturers to get their goods to market cheaper and more quickly. The same benefits would result from selling off the airports and seaports to foreign investors with the funds and expertise to run them far better than any Nigerian government ever has.

Privately-run grids with higher investment than TCN would get reliable power to both farmers and manufacturers, and at a far lower cost per energy unit than running generators would manage. Farmers with reliable power could go into value-added activities like milling their own wheat into flour, using their own cocoa to manufacture beverages, etc. In other words, this assistance to agriculture would end up aiding the transition of the more enterprising farmers into manufacturing.

In short, I think that a government with the right policy priorities would see a boom in both economic sectors, and while manufacturing would have the greater long-term potential, there wouldn't be any need for special government intervention to encourage that potential to be realized. It's not that Nigeria is lacking in ambitious people who want to get into manufacturing, it's just that they've been held back by decades of harmful policy-making by corrupt and incompetent leaders.

the problem is everyone wants a second term and industrialisation is not as quick as agric in 4 years.
Maybe after winning second term a serious politician may start working on providing power for industry

kalokalo:
I agree with with omohayek's opinion. If Nigeria really wants to develop its agriculture or any other sector, we need to attract capital and this capital is global. We need to make ourselves the beautiful bride of global capital. China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea all did it. A country is as prosperous as its degree of economic freedom. This is why the wealthiest and most developed countries in the world are also the easiest to do business while the poorest countries are also the most difficult to do business.

The more hostile a country becomes to free markets and private capital, the poorer it becomes. Cuba, North Korea, East Germany, Venezuela and China (until Deng Xiaoping's reforms in 1978) are examples. Little wonder, China has attracted trillions of dollars in FDI in the last 30+ years and lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. Nigeria needs to increase economic freedom by repealing anti-investment laws like the Land Use Act, Railways Act, Petroleum Act. Nigeria needs to guarantee property rights and the rule of law.

A situation where poor farmers sit on valuable agricultural land which they cannot use as security for agric loans due to lack of legally recognized ownership. Or communities sitting on vast amounts of natural resources which they cannot unlock its value due to terrible laws vesting ownership on the state (and by extension, the friends, cronies and political associates of those who control the ship of state). All of these are a consequence of such anti-investment laws and is a pointer to our lack of economic freedom.

We cannot industrialize or develop in such a scenario.

the farmers should pay for the land
Same with Niger delta
We have free market
Just lazy ppl

There is no way forward for this fraudulent experiment called nigger-area.

Split this nonsense and let us go our separate ways.

JonSnow:
There is no way forward for this fraudulent experiment called nigger-area.

Split this nonsense and let us go our separate ways.

Lol the place has plenty of potential if the right policy are enacted. If that your final goal try getting political traction in state. Honestly is there any census of how favorably people think of idea.

Cromagnon:
the farmers should pay for the land
Same with Niger delta
We have free market
Just lazy ppl

Yes we do but the ease of business is terrible. The cost need to be reduced, red tape cut, and curruption issue minimized.

Cromagnon:
the farmers should pay for the land
Same with Niger delta
We have free market
Just lazy ppl

Why should farmers pay for their ancestral lands? A land inherited from their fathers and fore fathers, you are saying they should pay for it, to outsiders in state capitals, who has no interest in the land except for exploitative purposes. Sounds like internal colonization.