Before ECOMOG Intervention in Gambia: Let's Count Our Losses

The Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group, ECOMOG are set to be deployed to forcibly dethrone President Yayah Jammeh of Gambia who is seating tight in office despite losing the last Presidential Election to his rival, Adama Barrow, after 22years in office.

Yahya Jammeh now 51, took power by military coup at just 29years of age as a young Army Captain in July 22, 1994 and later converted to a civilian president in lopsided democratic arrangement. With a population of 2million people, the entire Gambian military strength is less than 4,000men ,which is just the size of four or five battalions in Nigerian Army not even up to a Garrison. Hence, taking Gambia should not last a section of 2 Mechanised Division, Ibadan more than two weeks even without any support from sister divisions. But at what cost?

Economically, it is unfair to the Nigerian tax payer to start losing millions of dollars everyday taking care of troupes and sustaining The Gambian government and people for at least two years and in the upkeep of our troupes on the foreign mission. Knowing how ECOWAS member states including Ghana often end up leaving all the financial and military responsibilities to Nigeria alone. The cowardice of Ghanaian troupes in various ECOMOG operations especially in Liberia and Sierra Leone and their traitorous withdrawals are a story for another day. Remember Nigeria is still in recession and every million dollar spent out there may represent more job losses and deepened economic hardship back home!

Diplomatically, Yahya Jammeh is a lover of Nigeria and anything Nigeria. He believes a lot in the competence of Nigerian Engineers, Doctors, and professionals even at the expense of Western expatriates. Here is a man who believes in us more than we believe in ourselves. Nigerian expatriate engineers are his first choice. In fact, The Chief Judge of The Gambia is a Nigerian of Yoruba tribe. Before we lose all that goodwill, let's think deeply. Remember how Liberians turned around to hate Nigeria and Nigerians despite all the sacrifices made for peace in that country after ECOMOG intervention! Even if he leaves eventually, there is no guarantee that his successor will not become a dictator too, who might see Nigeria as a threat whenever he wishes to perpetuate himself in office thereby resort in treating Nigerians in that country harshly. The Gambian constitution has no tenure limit. Before we subject Nigerians to outcast status in that country let's think beyond the superficial and seek more diplomatic means of seeing Jammeh off.

In terms of human lives, the rangers and infantry boys being deployed by our military are not humanoids or dummies. They are people's children, husband, fathers, and brothers with blood flowing in their veins like you and I. That they took oath of supreme sacrifice doesn't mean they should die avoidably. We must place premium values on the lives of our soldiers. The US Army doesn't like losing men anyhow that's why at the dropping of two or three men, intense air raids take over. We just lose men over here like we have a factory that is manufacturing and recycling them. Our ground forces today are not as tactically and physically fluid and invisible like they were 20years ago. Let's tell ourselves the truth. The Real NAs are all retired without adequate transition. As a little Barack boy in the 1990s, I had many young soldier friends that I knew back who went to Liberia and Sierra Leone who didn't make it back or who absconded or who aren't completely okay again. We must think of the widows and the attendant issues. All these big brother diplomacy we practice should have limit. Even Obasanjo couldn't declare how many soldiers Nigeria lost in Liberia because he was too afraid of how Nigerians will react. That 500 men thing is far from the truth when even almost 300 were lost in some single battles alone. I wouldn't forget that horrible day The Mano River turned red. Nigerians must speak up against military action in Gambia because it's needless. Even if we win, lives will definitely be lost. "You don't fight a tiger and return without a scar", goes a Yoruba proverb.

Christian Okwori 170117.2.

True talk my brother

Nigeria is not invading Gambia. We are going to take out an illegal Government to support democracy in conjunction with not less than ten other West African countries and AU / UN support