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What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? - Business (3) - Nairaland

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Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Ugosample(m): 10:09am On Mar 31, 2017
So we still have sensible analysts on this forum *claps hand*

All of una try, and it means all hope is not lost on NL

But that guy posting Vote T Boss on this thread tho undecided
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by aribisala0(m): 10:26am On Mar 31, 2017
So we have money and we have trading between peoples but what about trading between NATIONS. If country A sells 1000 cows to country B and country B buys 10000 chickens from Country B how is trade settled. In practice each transaction is conducted separately and independently and it is the responsibility of CBNs to facilitate this by enabling the exchange of currencies and keeping of accounts .If one country buys more from the other it has a deficit and the other has a surplus and this could be settled by moving gold across to the other.
That does not happen and people use the dollar as a "reserve currency".That is another and very complex issue that we cannot go into here but let us assume that the dollar indeed has some intrinsic value for discussion sake.

Some countries are relatively self sufficient i.e the value of imports = exports . whilst others import more maintining a surplus and others a deficit. From an accounting perspective .Such a "surplus" does not equate to a profit and ay indeed be a loss. We must not forget that this surplus came about by the trransfer of an asset and not for nothing.This is avery difficult idea too grasp and people often conflate trade surplus with wealth growth. They are not the same thing. If I sell my gold to you for soe naira. I will have more naira and less gold and viice versa.

Still a country with huge exports develops reserves and those who are making the sales which may be individuals or governent still need their money back at home in their own currency so how is this effected.

Imagine a small country of 5 million people that survives on exporting fish with a currency called the QIZ and that there are 100 million QIZ in circulation worth US 100 million.Suddenlly they discover oil and develop savings of $10 billion which belongs to the government . The government decdes to share the wealth by giving each person $1000 that is $5 billion or half of its windfall and so it decides to expand the economy by PRINTING 5 billion QIZ and sharing 1000 QIZ to each person . So we have an economy growing from 100 million QIZ to 5000 million QIZ overnight . What would happen to prices? However if the goverment is willing and able to sell USD to its people at 1:1 enabling to import more goods from outside then goods and services are drawn in and the economy has expanded. We now have 5000 million QIZ in cirulation but prices have not risen much because imports are flowing.
What me must note here is that by printing more money the governent is MONETIZING the foreign currency that it holds. There is a time lag betwee when it prints and when people come to say can I buy dollars. In fact it is not a must that everyone will do so. But the moment it monetizes that $5 billion and prints the money i.e monetizes those dollars cease to belong to the government they are now a CBN asset or FOREIGN RESERVE and should be available for sale to any person holdilng the new QIZ if and when they choose to buy.
In understanding Foreign reserves the important thing is to understand the distinction between what belongs to the governent and what belongs to the CBN they are not the same thing though people might ask who owns the CBN?
I would reply yes the goovernment owns the CBN but the CBN has assets like Foreign reserves and liabilities like the banknotes they issue which actually are the assets of the goat seller and every other person who has a willingness and understanding to aept CBN notes .

CBN has assets like foreign reserve

CBN has debts . Take out the naira note in your pocket and look at it . It is a debt the CBN owes you. Now contemlate all the Naira notes in circulation and consider the scale of CBN debts/liabilities. Would you lend to the CBN

1 Like

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by tete7000(m): 10:27am On Mar 31, 2017
obailala:
Facilitates International Transactions
THe foreign reserve is like the wallet of a man (country) containing spendable cash. The man might run a payment system within his household where he and his children buy/sell things amongst themselves using cowries, but if any member of the family wants to buy something from the outside (international transaction), the real cash in the wallet would be needed.

Determines Value of Currency
Just as above, if a child of that family for instance wants to buy a pack of biscuits, he needs to give some cowries to the father, who in turn pays for the biscuits with real cash from the wallet. Now let's assume the man has $10 in the wallet, and let's assume the man exchanges the child's 1 cowrie for $1; if the amount in the wallet drops to $5 over time, the man may not be able to exchange 1 cowrie for $1, he might then have to double the price by taking 2 cowries for $1. Conversely, if the children are not too demanding of biscuits all the time and if the man has increased the wallet amount to $20, he can then afford to even exchange $2 for just 1 cowrie. In summary, the amount in the wallet and the demand of his children for biscuits determines the value of each cowrie compared to the dollars in the wallet.

This is the real deal. Explanation devoid of technical jargon.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by ISTANDWITHBUHAR: 10:32am On Mar 31, 2017
olujastro:
I explained this extensively last month to my friends on Facebook as a way of educating them about the kind of economy we operate. Enjoy!

Check the second page for the last screenshots.

God bless you bro explain everything i have been explaining to wailing zombie in my own little knowledge..

1 Like

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by jomoh: 10:51am On Mar 31, 2017
olujastro:
Last screenshots


Guy you need to get a column in a financial magazine and write for them or you can just send this your article to a news paper company for publishing. This will make a very good reading.



I love it. Seem to share the same mind.


The present Government might not be saints cos i feel they were too slow in implementing policies to turning the economy around but at least they are far better than the last one and we need to raise the bar high for the next one. Before then i feel we should give this one the opportunity to consolidate on the few good projects they are doing underground like the diversification (rice production), infrastructure development etc albeit under weak economy. What this government has been able to achieve under this circumstances is highly commendable one can only salivate on what it can achieve in a stable economy. I fear if we are in too much haste to raise the bar, we might end up shooting our self in the foot cos we really don't know what the next govt. will bring.

The part i feel this government has done most woefully in is the national politics. The president in trying to convince the people of his change from dictator to a democrat has given too much freedom to people surrounding him to the extent that it is turning into impunity. Unfortunately this is where people tend to focus more on that it is overshadowing the achievement of the government in the face of the inherited calamities.

I will liken the situation of this country to that of Lagos state. Tinubu laid the foundation (between 1999 and 2007) on which Fashola improved and built one of the strongest economy in africa on before it was passed on to Ambode. My point is that if Lagosian were not patient enough for Tinubu's 8years, Lagos might not have been what it is today which is largely due to continuity.

I think we should give this man enough time to lay a solid foundation for this country that others can build on. Lagos state wasn't beautiful under Tinubu, in fact Oshodi was as rough as it used to be, until fashola came in and used the improved revenue to turn around the state.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Abudu2000(m): 10:54am On Mar 31, 2017
In other terms of Yahoo boys, the money the Yahoo boiz recieve via MoneyGram and Western union are counterbalance from the foreign reserves.....the money isn't exactly wired immediately but added to the reserves there and given to them here,....

**I onces made this kind of comment on fp and i got 120likes
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by AngelicBeing: 10:55am On Mar 31, 2017
abbeywasc:
in layman's term, Forex reserve is like money in the bank, the more you got, the better people are comfortable doing business with you. You can get loans because people know you have money to pay(in the right currency) and people know that when they invest in your economy, it will be easy to repatriate their gains home. and off course, your ability to do business on credit expands.

What determines your optimal level depends on how dependent you are on foreign goods and services(oversimplification). if you are self-sufficient, you need zero reserve, if you are totally dependent, you need lots and lots of it.

**Edit
The irony of it is that, if you have it, you don,t need it and if you need it, you probably wont have it.
If you are export oriented, you get paid and but pay less in return for your few imports, hence your reserve goes up. if you import more than you export, your reserve spirals down and you continually need to borrow to meet up. thus you cough of vast amount of your currency to buy the reserve currency. your currency's value diminishes the more imbalance in your balance of trade(hence your BOP too), the more you have those bad economic indicators:
Runaway inflation
weak currency
unemployment etc
Spot on cool
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by omodapson(m): 11:12am On Mar 31, 2017
Thank goodness we still have some sane minds on this platform. @olujastro, well done! Most of the contributions here are spot on and it will be a good thing to have more engaging discussions going forward.
The more we are able to open our minds to good information and knowledge, the better it is for our future as a nation.

1 Like

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Mantain(m): 11:16am On Mar 31, 2017
just here to learn
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Horllamideh(m): 11:23am On Mar 31, 2017
olujastro:
I explained this extensively last month to my friends on Facebook as a way of educating them about the kind of economy we operate. Enjoy!

Check the second page for the last screenshots.
Boss, can you please post the facebook link to the post where you have this insightful lecture..... thanking you in anticipation.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by LordAdam16: 11:48am On Mar 31, 2017
Ugosample:


So I have read from the beginning, in the other page, and from the beginning, you made a lot of sense. Countries that are primary economy based(extractive) and depends on only one extractive resource for over 70% of its earnings is exposed to volatility.
The same way Zambia got into trouble when the price of copper fell, and Senegal, when the price of Groundout tanks, or even some countries in East Africa, if the price of Coffee tanks.

That said, let's move to the talk about reserves and how Jonathan was "dishing out forex to import all sort of things" according to you.
In case you don't know, the president has ZERO jurisdiction over monetary policies (which include forex) so saying He dished out money is wrong.

More to come soon.....

You real get time.

You one argue with that kpom kpom brain?

For he mind he dey intelligent. Better riff-raff nai him b?

Lots of holes in his narrative. Sanusi is not even sure of how much was unremitted, but the empty brain is sure it was $20b.

He doesn't know that's the modus operandi of the NNPC. In the first quarter of 2016, the NNPC did not remit $4.6b. In a supposed recession, the story died a natural death, because it happened under the Saint.

Then he talked about Jonathan sharing money. Calling Dasuki ($2.1b) which is actually a sum total of all the money used for both legit and illegitimate security projects for more than 2 years, rather than specific money stolen. There has been no trial by the way roughly 18 months later. And by the way that's the biggest loot they've discovered, when Nigeria earned $80b in one year. Really?

That guy is an id1ot.

How did he think Nigeria achieved 7+% growth rate?

GEJ had two options, save and do virtually nothing like Buhari is doing, or use our earnings to build strong foundations. He chose the latter, which is good. Because Nigeria had better fundamentals when he was leaving in 2015 than it did when he started in 2010.

Amongst all OPEC countries, oil makes the least contribution to GDP (not foreign earnings) in Nigeria. That's the bedrock of diversification. Because now we are only talking about increasing self-sufficiency, a word that stopped being a buzz word under Jonathan with the Rice Revolution and Automobile policy. Even Dangote's refinery was conceptualized during Jonathan's tenure and received the FG's blessing because Jonathan knew that like PHCN, our state-owned refineries are a waste of scarce resources. He just couldn't sell them because his fuel subsidy removal attempt received a backlash (something Nigerians now regret), as he knew majority of Nigerians have empty skulls.

The oaf even thinks local rice is an achievement of Buhari's administration. Obviously, his brain is too underdeveloped to do the same painstaking research to ascertain under who Nigeria started investing big in rice mills and who subsidized fertilizer that the slow sicko in Aso Rock reversed.

Look at him calling Buhari's government an improvement over the last government. A government that took 18 months to come up with an economic policy. A government that has made more policy somersaults than any government since 1999. A government that has copied several of GEJ's legacies, and even went ahead to over copy the bad attributes of his administration too, such as nepotism and state-/party-sanctioned corruption.

People like him are the people that change history. Lying through his teeth and trying to be a quasi-financial guru. Doesn't know he sound stupid. But knowledgeable to other brainless Nigerians who do not know their left from their right and fell for a cheap N5k monthly propaganda.

I wouldn't dignify him with a direct response, an octopus is more intelligent than he is (and that's a compliment).

-Lord

2 Likes

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by olujastro: 12:13pm On Mar 31, 2017
Horllamideh:

Boss, can you please post the facebook link to the post where you have this insightful lecture..... thanking you in anticipation.
There you go.

https://mobile.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10209473701657311&id=1168922032.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by olujastro: 12:22pm On Mar 31, 2017
Ugosample:


Continues....

When Nigeria sowed the seed that grew into a tree with ripe fruits of suffering and penury was when in 2012, then preferred to keep a subsidy that was gulping billions of dollars per annum, instead of doing away with it.
This is even ironic because today, we are paying N145 for a litre when oil prices has halved, and hunger has multiplied, as opposed to N141 when oil prices were still much higher
Nigeria ate her today yesterday and we are all paying for it.
In Sanusi's words back then, he said it clear that if this subsidy regime continues, the next government in 2015 will smell pepper, and as if he was a prophet, that is what is happening today.

Billions of dollars we would have saved wasted on subsidy.

That said, who were those who put the FG under pressure to share the ECA?
Wouldn't that have also been a saving for us? but in usual black man fashion, the governors squandered out today yesterday.

You also talk about the militant activities in the ND.
This to me is the bigger failure of the current admin. With his careless comments and bravado, he set the ND on fire, instead of him to extend an olive branch to all regions to prove that indeed, the elections are over, he decided to polarize the country and what happened after was a direct result of his carelessness.
And due to the avoidable attacks, Nigeria lost billions of dollars that we would have used for better things

One other thing that led to the massive capital flight we saw in Jan 2016 was due to the fact that our mumu president took six months to assemble a useless cabinet.
Which serious government takes six months to constitute a cabinet? The international community of investors saw an unserious admin in Buhari's presidency, and pulled out at least $40B out.

What excuse is there for this level of unserious behaviour?
And to further show you that the gov is useless, threepresidents were sworn in Jan 2017, Donald Trump, Adama Barrow and Akufo Addo, and they all had theircabinet in place and hit the ground running.

I'm not saying that the former admin did not have its faults, but this one is just a useless one, and a big disaster.
so leave matter
If you read my last comment on the screenshots you'll find the answer to everything you've raised.
And the reasons I wouldn't exactly want Buhari back is because of his extremely slow pace of progress. Whether it's old age or his nature, I don't know but Baba is way too slow for the kind of progress I want for my country. Secondly, was his stubborn, military approach to the Vandalism issue. It was uncalled for.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by LordAdam16: 12:41pm On Mar 31, 2017
olujastro:

If you read my last comment on the screenshots you'll find the answer to everything you've raised.
And the reasons I wouldn't exactly want Buhari back is because of his extremely slow pace of progress. Whether it's old age or his nature, I don't know but Baba is way too slow for the kind of progress I want for my country. Secondly, was his stubborn, military approach to the Vandalism issue. It was uncalled for.

Saying you don't want Buhari back doesn't excuse your disastrous attempt to paint him as a better administrator than Jonathan.

Anyone who believes that would believe Santa is real.

Slow progress is the least of Buhari's problems. OBJ was slow initially, look how he ended.

Buhari is simply unfit to even be the manager of his farm.

All of you looking for quick fixes will continue to be burned and make dangerous mistakes because all it takes is for politicians to package another person as the Messiah.

-Lord

1 Like

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Nobody: 12:57pm On Mar 31, 2017
abbeywasc:
in layman's term, Forex reserve is like money in the bank, the more you got, the better people are comfortable doing business with you. You can get loans because people know you have money to pay(in the right currency) and people know that when they invest in your economy, it will be easy to repatriate their gains home. and off course, your ability to do business on credit expands.

What determines your optimal level depends on how dependent you are on foreign goods and services(oversimplification). if you are self-sufficient, you need zero reserve, if you are totally dependent, you need lots and lots of it.

**Edit
The irony of it is that, if you have it, you don,t need it and if you need it, you probably wont have it.
If you are export oriented, you get paid and but pay less in return for your few imports, hence your reserve goes up. if you import more than you export, your reserve spirals down and you continually need to borrow to meet up. thus you cough of vast amount of your currency to buy the reserve currency. your currency's value diminishes the more imbalance in your balance of trade(hence your BOP too), the more you have those bad economic indicators:
Runaway inflation
weak currency
unemployment etc

Oversimplified.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Ugosample(m): 1:17pm On Mar 31, 2017
jomoh:



Guy you need to get a column in a financial magazine and write for them or you can just send this your article to a news paper company for publishing. This will make a very good reading.



I love it. Seem to share the same mind.


The present Government might not be saints cos i feel they were too slow in implementing policies to turning the economy around but at least they are far better than the last one and we need to raise the bar high for the next one. Before then i feel we should give this one the opportunity to consolidate on the few good projects they are doing underground like the diversification (rice production), infrastructure development etc albeit under weak economy. What this government has been able to achieve under this circumstances is highly commendable one can only salivate on what it can achieve in a stable economy. I fear if we are in too much haste to raise the bar, we might end up shooting our self in the foot cos we really don't know what the next govt. will bring.

The part i feel this government has done most woefully in is the national politics. The president in trying to convince the people of his change from dictator to a democrat has given too much freedom to people surrounding him to the extent that it is turning into impunity. Unfortunately this is where people tend to focus more on that it is overshadowing the achievement of the government in the face of the inherited calamities.

I will liken the situation of this country to that of Lagos state. Tinubu laid the foundation (between 1999 and 2007) on which Fashola improved and built one of the strongest economy in africa on before it was passed on to Ambode. My point is that if Lagosian were not patient enough for Tinubu's 8years, Lagos might not have been what it is today which is largely due to continuity.

I think we should give this man enough time to lay a solid foundation for this country that others can build on. Lagos state wasn't beautiful under Tinubu, in fact Oshodi was as rough as it used to be, until fashola came in and used the improved revenue to turn around the state.

Are you seriously saying that this administration is better than the former?
My goodness shocked shocked
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by LordAdam16: 2:43pm On Mar 31, 2017
Ugosample:


Are you seriously saying that this administration is better than the former?
My goodness shocked shocked


Now you know many are mad but few are roaming.

-Lord
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by jomoh: 3:03pm On Mar 31, 2017
Ugosample:


Are you seriously saying that this administration is better than the former?
My goodness shocked shocked



Any sane and well informed Nigerian knows that. The guy I quoted pointed that out only that it's performing below what he expected.

Here's my question. Are you well informed to know the real difference between $27pb economy and $100pb economy.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by udoh2k: 3:05pm On Mar 31, 2017
Funny enough, China has more Dollars (foreign reserve) than the US that own the dollars.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Ugosample(m): 3:16pm On Mar 31, 2017
jomoh:



Any sane and well informed Nigerian knows that. The guy I quoted pointed that out only that it's performing below what he expected.

Here's my question. Are you well informed to know the real difference between $27pb economy and $100pb economy.

Read my own posts up there and tell me what you think about it.
Buhari's govt is the worst after Babangida
What has he not done wrong undecided

Polarising the country

Sluggishness

Impunity (Disobeying court orders at whim)

Wanton corruption going on

Fulani herdsmen

Compromising the autonomy of CBN

No certificate (the dunce rather hired a dozen lawyers, instead of bringing the cert he claimed to have)
Increased hardship
Vandalism in the ND

And the list is endless

And he is not even paying subsidy.
If he was paying Subsidy, then his government will have collapsed since.

1 Like

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by GoldEnyong(m): 4:29pm On Mar 31, 2017
It is money kept outside a country especially Nigeria in case politicians steal all the money overnight. The reserve then would be shared among the next set of politicians.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by jomoh: 5:22pm On Mar 31, 2017
Ugosample:


Read my own posts up there and tell me what you think about it.
Buhari's govt is the worst after Babangida
What has he not done wrong undecided

Polarising the country

Sluggishness

Impunity (Disobeying court orders at whim)

Wanton corruption going on

Fulani herdsmen

Compromising the autonomy of CBN

No certificate (the dunce rather hired a dozen lawyers, instead of bringing the cert he claimed to have)
Increased hardship
Vandalism in the ND

And the list is endless

And he is not even paying subsidy.
If he was paying Subsidy, then his government will have collapsed since.



If Buhari government brought all those things you mentioned above then Nigeria must have been paradise before he came in or don't you think.

I don't know your level of education but you need to learn "cause and effects" of situations. You don't just become a Bsc holder, you must have started from somewhere. All those problems you mentioned couldn't have started under Buhari and escalated under him at the same time. It must have started from somewhere.

Bokoharam didn't start under GEJ but escalated under him. Does it mean GEJ brought Bokoharam? No.

Again we have to go to the question what did GEJ do to curb the menace, did he have the capacity to curb it (financial strength, political will, public approval to curb it) Same has to be asked of Buhari comprehensively. You don't just conclude he brought those things.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by Ugosample(m): 5:37pm On Mar 31, 2017
jomoh:



If Buhari government brought all those things you mentioned above then Nigeria must have been paradise before he came in or don't you think.

I don't know your level of education but you need to learn "cause and effects" of situations. You don't just become a Bsc holder, you must have started from somewhere. All those problems you mentioned couldn't have started under Buhari and escalated under him at the same time. It must have started from somewhere.

Bokoharam didn't start under GEJ but escalated under him. Does it mean GEJ brought Bokoharam? No.

Again we have to go to the question what did GEJ do to curb the menace, did he have the capacity to curb it (financial strength, political will, public approval to curb it) Same has to be asked of Buhari comprehensively. You don't just conclude he brought those things.

Lol @ cause and effects...

I'll show you threr examples of cause and effects


1) 97% vs 5% = Cause

Polarisation of the country =Effect

2) Taking six months to assemble a cabinet= Cause

Erosion of confidence in investment circles = Effect

3) Bravado talk and action against the ND= Cause

Increased vandalism and attackon oil infrastructure = Effect

4) Silence when Fulani herdsmen ravage the country while quickly deploying troops to the ND, and killing innocent protesters= Cause

Effect= Fulani herdsmen on rampage, and increased mistrust in the government for their security

The list is plenty,
That is cause and effect in Buhari's case, and Nigerians are suffering for it.


Buhari made a bad situation worse.
Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by DanjaNinja(m): 6:10pm On Mar 31, 2017
frenchwine:
In layman's language, it's a testament to the strength of your economy and how well it can resist economic tremors and shocks.
It's also an allure to the external investors that their investment would be safe because your country is on a sound economic footing.
Again it can be used as collateral to international lenders, a guarantee that you have the capacity to repay the loan as agreed.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: What's The Use Of Foreign Exchange Reserve? by jomoh: 7:33pm On Mar 31, 2017
Ugosample:


Lol @ cause and effects...

I'll show you threr examples of cause and effects


1) 97% vs 5% = Cause

Polarisation of the country =Effect

2) Taking six months to assemble a cabinet= Cause

Erosion of confidence in investment circles = Effect

3) Bravado talk and action against the ND= Cause

Increased vandalism and attackon oil infrastructure = Effect

4) Silence when Fulani herdsmen ravage the country while quickly deploying troops to the ND, and killing innocent protesters= Cause

Effect= Fulani herdsmen on rampage, and increased mistrust in the government for their security

The list is plenty,
That is cause and effect in Buhari's case, and Nigerians are suffering for it.


Buhari made a bad situation worse.


bwuahahaha.

you tried sha I think I will stop here I've tried but your hatred for the man is obviously more than I expected.

But one thing you can't deny that the situation was bad but your hatred made you to actually downgrade a worse situation to a bad one. In other words, the situation was actually worse before now and was made worse by your hero's divisive campaign strategy you won't see that as a cause of everything.


Once again I hold my keypad here.

1 Like

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