THE Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, has
expressed concern over the borrowing
activities of the federal government, saying
the pace of government’s borrowing has
exceeded the target for the 2017 fiscal year
The CBN position came along with its
Monetary Policy Committee, MPC, decision at
the end of the second quarter 2017 meeting,
yesterday, to retain all its key policy rates,
citing challenges weighing down the domestic
economy and uncertainties in the global
environment. The decision also followed
announcement by the National Bureau of
Statistics, NBS, that the nation’s economy
contracted for the fifth consecutive quarter,
as the real Gross Domestic Products, GDP,
declined by 0.52 per cent in the first quarter
of 2017.
According to the NBS, “In the first quarter of
2017, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product,
GDP, contracted by -0.52 per cent (year-on-
year) in real terms, representing the fifth
consecutive quarter of contraction since Q1
2016. This is 0.15 per cent higher than the
rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of
2016 (revised to -0.67 per cent from -0.36 per
cent) higher by 1.21 per cent points from rate
recorded in the preceding quarter, (revised to
-1.73 per cent from -1.30 per cent). Quarter-
on-quarter, real GDP growth was 12.92 per
cent. During the quarter, aggregate GDP stood
at N26.03 trillion in nominal terms, compared
to N22.24 trillion in Q1 2016, resulting in a
nominal GDP growth of 17.06 per cent.”
FG borrowing excessively: Announcing the
decision of the MPC meeting, CBN Governor,
Mr. Godwin Emefiele said the Net Domestic
Credit, NDC, grew by 1.40 per cent in April,
2017, annualized to 4.21 per cent, which is
significantly below the 17.93 per cent
provisional growth benchmark for 2017.
However, net credit to government, according
to him, grew by 24.08 per cent over end-
December 2016, representing an annualized
growth of 72 per cent.
The MPC Communique stated: “The
Committee was concerned that credit to
government continued to outpace the
programmed target of 33.12 per cent for fiscal
2017, while credit to the private sector
declined considerably far below the
programmed target of 14.88 per cent.” On the
other hand, the MPC called for increased
lending to the private sector by banks, even as
it urged the CBN to increase surveillance of
the banking sector.
“On the financial stability outlook, the
Committee noted that in spite of the banking
sector’s resilience, the weak macroeconomic
environment has continued to exert pressure
on the banking system. The MPC urged the
CBN to intensify its surveillance, in order to
address emerging vulnerabilities.”
Commenting on the concern express by the
CBN on the level of federal government’s
borrowing, Head of Research, Vetiva Capital
Management Limited, Mr. Pabina Yinkere said:
“The high pace of government borrowing is
coming as a result of government revenue
undershooting the budget expectation hence
the need for government to borrow more to
cover up for the short fall in revenue
“The impact on the economy is first, increase
in interest rates and government crowding out
the private sector. People see government as
the safest borrower so they will prefer to give
their money to government, while the private
sector will be getting less money. But I don’t
expect the pace of government borrowing to
continue through the year. The government
itself is aware of the impact of its borrowing
and hence the decision to consider borrowing
from external sources. Instead, the
government is looking at Eurobond issuance,
and borrowing from external DFIs.”
Why rates were retained
Explaining the rationale to retain the Monetary
Policy Rate, MPR, at 14 per cent as well as
other policy rates, Emefiele said, “In
consideration of the challenges weighing down
the domestic economy and the uncertainties in
the global environment, the Committee
decided by a unanimous vote of the eight
members in attendance to retain the MPR at
14.0 per cent alongside all other policy
parameters. One member was absent at the
meeting. In summary, the MPC decided to:
Retain the MPR at 14 per cent; Retain the
CRR at 22.5 per cent; Retain the Liquidity
Ratio at 30.00 per cent; and Retain the
Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis
points around the MPR.”
The CBN governor said the committee
welcomed the passage of the 2017 Budget but
identified associated risks, inherent in its
implications and decided to leave the rates
unchanged. He identified such associated risks
as banking system liquidity of the envisaged
fiscal injections during the remainder of the
year, stressing that the Committee decided
that the MPR should not be lowered, to avoid
exacerbating inflation. On the other hand, he
said that tightening rate it further could widen
the existing income gap, depress aggregate
consumption and hurt the real sector.
Budget needs expeditious implementation
According to the CBN boss, “the Committee
urged the fiscal authorities to expeditiously
commence the implementation of the recently
approved 2017 budget, especially, the capital
expenditure portion, to sustain the momentum
of recovery, engender employment and restore
confidence in the Nigerian economy.
“The Committee expects that the timely
implementation of this plan, judicious
execution of the approved 2017 Budget and
sustenance of the new foreign exchange
implementation regime supported by the
restoration of security in different parts of the
country, especially, in the Niger Delta region,
would help accelerate growth and restore
confidence in the economy.”
Experts react: In separate reactions, financial
sector experts described the GDP figures as a
positive development even as they
commended the decision of the CBN to retain
key policy rates. According to Lukman
Otunuga, a Research Analyst at Forex Times,
FXTM, “Although this economic contraction
may weigh heavily on sentiment moving
forward, it should be kept in mind that it still
remains the best performance seen in four
quarters. With many sectors of the Nigerian
economy turning positive, the overall outlook
still looks encouraging with the bullish impacts
likely to be realized in the second and third
quarter of this year.
“The Central Bank of Nigeria has made the
logical decision to maintain key interest rates
at 14 percent as the nation stabilizes and
continues its ongoing quest to diversify beyond
relying on oil exports.”
Analysts at Financial Derivatives Company,
said: “The good news is that economic
contraction is occurring at a slower pace. In
other words, there is an expansion of activity
directionally but still negative in nominal
terms. The budget has been approved and is
awaiting presidential sign off which is
expected this month. Therefore, we anticipate
that increased spending on the fiscal front will
help increase output both in the long and short
run.
‘‘However, for the economy to feel the full
impact of investment, private sector
investment has to be amplified. With the
recent policy shift especially towards
improving the ease of doing business in the
country, we expect a slow but consistent
recovery in investor confidence. Even though
the economic recovery may have begun, it is
only likely to become manifest in Q2 and Q3.”
In his comment, Mr. Sola Oni, Managing
Director, Sofunix Comm & Chartered
Stockbroker said, “Any form of decline in the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicates that
it is not yet uhuru for the economy. This
symbolises unemployment, weak purchasing
power of consumers and the rest. These imply
that recession has not really gone; hence, the
economy is still in dire need of stimulus
packages to put it on track.’’
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/05/fgs-borrowing-excessive-cbn/

Okay

even. CBN is tired how can a government be living on borrowing and still be lying to his followers that there is hope.


I think they too should also take us there we also want to borrow, haba no be only them una go they give.money borrow we too wan borrow

Amazing

Chai...na common man go pay for da debt o.



Father God, save thy people.

hehehehehe... Imagine even CBN knows dis govt have lost it but some morons called zombies think dey know beta... Dis govt jus like some nairaland mods no get conscience..
NB: If no one sees any comments from me after today den dey shld understand why some mods no get conscience..

I pity the future generation, life will surely be hell for them if things dont improve.

Anybody still supporting Buhari's is a donkey I swear