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GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified - Politics (2) - Nairaland

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On This Day: Murtala Mohammed Was Shot Dead In His Mercedes Benz (PHOTOS) / Who Is The 3rd Force Candidate That Can Really Challenge APC And PDP? / Is Murtala Mohammed’s Car The Most Well-maintained Car In Nigeria? (see Photo) (2) (3) (4)

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Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by Nobody: 7:43am On Jun 06, 2017
Kathmandu:
Which 200 thousand graduate? Are you very sure you are alright
. Second phase starts on June 13 . You should apply. I know you are jobless
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by Nobody: 7:48am On Jun 06, 2017
xstry:
. Second phase starts on June 13 . You should apply. I know you are jobless
grin grin grin grin grin


I'm taking care of your mates in the University right now so i can't do a 30k job in my lifetime. grin grin cheesy


Pm maybe i can fix you up somewhere

2 Likes

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by Nobody: 7:53am On Jun 06, 2017
Kathmandu:
grin grin grin grin grin


I'm taking care of your mates in the University right now so i can't do a 30k job in my lifetime. grin grin cheesy


Pm maybe i can fix you up somewhere
Npower has changed the lives of thousands. Deal with it
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 7:58am On Jun 06, 2017
dodelight:
GEJ worked! Despite his weakness in handling corruption we WERE moving forward under him- at slow pace though. But what do we have now? Your guess is as good as mine.
Mr A received N100, swallowed N90 and worked with N10. Mr B received N40, and swallowed the entire N40. undecided
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by dodelight(m): 8:07am On Jun 06, 2017
deji15:


Does it makes sense to initiate new projects when you have abandoned projects all over the place? Some of the projects are even 17 years old and still under construction. We are talking of projects that ordinarily should not take more than 4 to 5 years.

GEJ was a disaster going by the price of oil while he was President with little to nothing to show for it apart from massive looting and abandoned projects
Please kindly attempt this simple question: Speaking about economics, is Nigeria progressing under the present administration compared to the previous?
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 8:10am On Jun 06, 2017
dodelight:

Yes!
Tell me which new projects this failed administration has initiated. They are only complementing Jonathan's legacy. It's good though. But I remember they said the man wasted 6years. Are they now completing his wastage?
Someone starts hundreds of projects and hardly finishes any single one; you hail him.

His successor comes in, refuses to start fresh projects, but rather chooses to complete the plethora of uncompleted projects littering the landscape. And you criticise him?

The wastage talked about obviously wasn't the projects.

2 Likes

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 8:13am On Jun 06, 2017
dodelight:
Please kindly attempt this simple question: Speaking about economics, is Nigeria progressing under the present administration compared to the previous?
Nigeria is currently in recession and the current income is just a tiny fraction of what was obtainable before. Nigeria is presently adjusting to that and the ficis now is to pull out of the recession. There's no basis for comparing 100 with 40.
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by dodelight(m): 8:22am On Jun 06, 2017
obailala:
Nigeria is currently in recession and the current income is just a tiny fraction of what was obtainable before. Nigeria is presently adjusting to that and the ficis now is to pull out of the recession. There's no basis for comparing 100 with 40.
There's no point arguing with you. It's obvious you hate everything about Jonathan, whereas I'm neither for or against him. I'm for good governance and the rule of law which is obviously missing in the administration you are passionately striving to defend.
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 8:30am On Jun 06, 2017
dodelight:
There's no point arguing with you. It's obvious you hate everything about Jonathan, whereas I'm neither for or against him. I'm for good governance and the rule of law which is obviously missing in the administration you are passionately striving to defend.
Haba, we were talking about capital development, what brings rule of law into this?

Anyway, regarding Jonathan, he did his best to transform Nigeria as he deemed fit and I absolutely dont hate him. I just see him as another typical example of the mediocre leadership which Africa is known for; his own mediocrity was on a high level though because I had too much expectations from him and I believe that unlike every other leader, he enjoyed reasonably higher revenue..

And by the way, this is not me hailing the present govt, cos I also see them as a disappointment. But I certainly hate it when people keep directly comparing performance of the last guys (5 yrs) to the current guys (2yrs) especially as they choose to blatantly ignore the differences in the times (i.e. the economic status, sharp difference in income level etc).

1 Like

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by dodelight(m): 8:57am On Jun 06, 2017
obailala:
Haba, we were talking about capital development, what brings rule of law into this?

Anyway, regarding Jonathan, he did his best to transform Nigeria as he deemed fit and I absolutely dont hate him. I just see him as another typical example of the mediocre leadership which Africa is known for; his own mediocrity... But I certainly hate it when people keep directly comparing performance of the last guys (5 yrs) to the current guys (2yrs) especially as they choose to blatantly ignore the differences in the times (i.e. the economic status, sharp difference in income level etc).
I would have totally agreed with this response of yours if not for its conclusion which show you have much blind and soft spot for the present administration. Blind spot because you are not seeing how they lack direction, and how they came into power united by hate and different selfish reasons; Soft spot because you think they would perform better with better oil revenue.
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 9:15am On Jun 06, 2017
dodelight:
I would have totally agreed with this response of yours if not for its conclusion which show you have much blind and soft spot for the present administration. Blind spot because you are not seeing how they lack direction, and how they came into power united by hate and different selfish reasons; Soft spot because you think they would perform better with better oil revenue.
Of course I cant deny that I have a bias for apc because I see them as my baby; I supported apc to power so by default, it would be difficult for me to expunge my sympathy for them, especially when I see how people who have a sympathy for pdp still stand by their pdp 100% even in exposed cases of their glaring fvckups.. And yes, I agree they lack direction, but I genuinely also believe their lack of direction isn't worse than that of the recently departed PDP that had a much better economic climate but weren't able to do anything sustainable with it. I absolutely believe a buhari would have done better in terms of sustainable capital infrastructural development if he had the same resource opportunities enjoyed by the recently departed govt.

2 Likes

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by dodelight(m): 9:23am On Jun 06, 2017
obailala:
Of course I cant deny that I have a bias for apc because I see them as my baby; I supported apc to power so by default, it would be difficult for me to expunge my sympathy for them, especially when I see how people who have a sympathy for pdp still stand by their pdp 100% even in exposed cases of their glaring fvckups.. And yes, I agree they lack direction, but I genuinely also believe their lack of direction isn't worse than that of the recently departed PDP that had a much better economic climate but weren't able to do anything sustainable with it. I absolutely believe a buhari would have done better in terms of sustainable capital infrastructural development if he had the same resource opportunities enjoyed by the recently departed govt.
At least I like your sincerity in admitting your soft spot for APC. Case closed!
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by Nobody: 1:22pm On Jun 06, 2017
dodelight:
Please kindly attempt this simple question: Speaking about economics, is Nigeria progressing under the present administration compared to the previous?

Yes! The reason being that the previous Govt was already borrowing to pay workers salary even when oil was selling for $70 / barrel in 2014. I wonder what they would do when oil falls below $30/ barrel and later $50/ barrel. The same Govt was owing workers salary some months before handing over. That was a disastrous Govt. Thank God we kicked them out, if not Venezuela will be fairing better compared to Nigeria.

1 Like

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by isnovic(m): 9:57am On Jun 08, 2017
obailala:
Haba, we were talking about capital development, what brings rule of law into this?

Anyway, regarding Jonathan, he did his best to transform Nigeria as he deemed fit and I absolutely dont hate him. I just see him as another typical example of the mediocre leadership which Africa is known for; his own mediocrity was on a high level though because I had too much expectations from him and I believe that unlike every other leader, he enjoyed reasonably higher revenue..

And by the way, this is not me hailing the present govt, cos I also see them as a disappointment. But I certainly hate it when people keep directly comparing performance of the last guys (5 yrs) to the current guys (2yrs) especially as they choose to blatantly ignore the differences in the times (i.e. the economic status, sharp difference in income level etc).

We should be aware that this Government is enjoying crude oil price boom, as the rice of crude oil is twice the value it was when they were sworn in.
This is 100% increase.

Taken, this price may not be at the level it was during GEJ's times, but what was he thinking?


That crude oil price will remain at 140 or go up when he takes over power or wait for him at that price ?


It shows you his naivety plus is lack of understanding of the economics of Nigeria's singular export earner. If he does not know this much, how else was he hoping to lead the largest economy in Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa?
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 11:55am On Jun 08, 2017
isnovic:


We should be aware that this Government is enjoying crude oil price boom, as the rice of crude oil is twice the value it was when they were sworn in.
This is 100% increase.

Taken, this price may not be at the level it was during GEJ's times, but what was he thinking?


That crude oil price will remain at 140 or go up when he takes over power or wait for him at that price ?


It shows you his naivety plus is lack of understanding of the economics of Nigeria's singular export earner. If he does not know this much, how else was he hoping to lead the largest economy in Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa?


There's a range of price fluctuation which is permissible, but there's also a degree of fluctuation which is capable of capsizing an entire ship if the people in-charge of the ship hadn't put in place, necessary counter measures to absorb the shocks. Unfortunately Nigeria had absolutely zero counter-measures in place to absorb the oil shock, hence we've found ourselves in this INEVITABLE situation...

Oh yes, oil price is now almost twice what it was as at Jan/Feb last year ($28), but it's still well below and outside the permissible range which could have ensured stability in Nigeria's economy. If you think the current guys struggling to manage the situation are extremely stupid and incompetent, may I remind you that the entire ship started capsizing even when we still had renown economic experts like NOI steering the economy. That the effect of the crash hit the common man on the streets after they had left power, that does not mean the crisis started after they had left.

Remember as at the time they handed over, oil still sold averagely above $60. Between Nov 2014 - May 2015, the foreign reserves were emptied rapidly ($38.5bn to $28.6bn) to support the value of the Naira, but Naira still fell from N160-N220 nevertheless. Obviously, since the reserves got to a dangerously low level, those disbursements couldn't be sustained, so the Naira began the steep decline, and it was only a matter of time before the common man felt the inflationary effects. Regarding the recession, from mid-2014 to 2Q 2015, GDP growth rate fell progressively from over 6% to 2.3%; of course it kept falling after the new government took over but many people myopically only see when it fell below zero (official recession) under the new govt. I wouldn't even want to talk of the cash crunch which pushed the FG under the renown powerful economists to start borrowing in Feb 2015 to offset salaries and the fact that oil importers were owed for over 9 months before the new govt came in.

In summary, if you think the current oil price isn't bad enough to warrant the slowness in the economy, then you probably don't understand how dangerously dependent your country's economy is on oil. And mind you, every single country dependent on oil globally is facing similar situations except the ones who had put substantial measures in place to counter the shock, e.g. Saudi Arabia with a population of 30 million had $750billion in its reserves (more than enough right?), but they've still had to increase pump price of fuel by up to 100% in the last 2 years coupled with other belt-tightening measures which their citizens are groaning over.

1 Like

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by thundafire: 12:04pm On Jun 08, 2017
dodelight:
GEJ worked! Despite his weakness in handling corruption we WERE moving forward under him- at slow pace though. But what do we have now? Your guess is as good as mine.
even snail run faster than bubu
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by isnovic(m): 3:16pm On Jun 08, 2017
obailala:
There's a range of price fluctuation which is permissible, but there's also a degree of fluctuation which is capable of capsizing an entire ship if the people in-charge of the ship hadn't put in place, necessary counter measures to absorb the shocks. Unfortunately Nigeria had absolutely zero counter-measures in place to absorb the oil shock, hence we've found ourselves in this INEVITABLE situation...

Oh yes, oil price is now almost twice what it was as at Jan/Feb last year ($28), but it's still well below and outside the permissible range which could have ensured stability in Nigeria's economy. If you think the current guys struggling to manage the situation are extremely stupid and incompetent, may I remind you that the entire ship started capsizing even when we still had renown economic experts like NOI steering the economy. That the effect of the crash hit the common man on the streets after they had left power, that does not mean the crisis started after they had left.

Remember as at the time they handed over, oil still sold averagely above $60. Between Nov 2014 - May 2015, the foreign reserves were emptied rapidly ($38.5bn to $28.6bn) to support the value of the Naira, but Naira still fell from N160-N220 nevertheless. Obviously, since the reserves got to a dangerously low level, those disbursements couldn't be sustained, so the Naira began the steep decline, and it was only a matter of time before the common man felt the inflationary effects. Regarding the recession, from mid-2014 to 2Q 2015, GDP growth rate fell progressively from over 6% to 2.3%; of course it kept falling after the new government took over but many people myopically only see when it fell below zero (official recession) under the new govt. I wouldn't even want to talk of the cash crunch which pushed the FG under the renown powerful economists to start borrowing in Feb 2015 to offset salaries and the fact that oil importers were owed for over 9 months before the new govt came in.

In summary, if you think the current oil price isn't bad enough to warrant the slowness in the economy, then you probably don't understand how dangerously dependent your country's economy is on oil. And mind you, every single country dependent on oil globally is facing similar situations except the ones who had put substantial measures in place to counter the shock, e.g. Saudi Arabia with a population of 30 million had $750billion in its reserves (more than enough right?), but they've still had to increase pump price of fuel by up to 100% in the last 2 years coupled with other belt-tightening measures which their citizens are groaning over.

Obailala though correct that there prices is low at under $55 dollars.

You will recall this not the first time we have had oil windfall.

We had it during the Kuwait Gulf war, where is that money?

We had a good run in Obj's time, where is the money.

Yes, we had sustained high price during in GEJ's time, but again this period also was followed by low prices during the end of his government.

The thing is what do you do with the excesses you create.

Aggressive soverieign fund was proposed by GEJ but we know the proponents that killed it, they are still in the APC.
Excess revenue derivation fund, was a constant battle with GEJ and the Governors.

Petrol prices was increased because he saw into the future, the save Nigeria group was born.

He has been fought at every turn to make a difference.

Weakened by BH saga at the NE.

Stampeded by countless strikes.

There is so much a man can do jare.

He tried.

Check your debt profile now and tell me if this is any way to run an economy.

Check your exchange rate regime and that of GEJs, I could say for 3-4 years straight the price of dollars was fixed around 150Naira to a dollar.

1 Like

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 4:54pm On Jun 08, 2017
isnovic:


Obailala though correct that there prices is low at under $55 dollars.

You will recall this not the first time we have had oil windfall.

We had it during the Kuwait Gulf war, where is that money?

We had a good run in Obj's time, where is the money.

Yes, we had sustained high price during in GEJ's time, but again this period also was followed by low prices during the end of his government.

The thing is what do you do with the excesses you create.

Aggressive soverieign fund was proposed by GEJ but we know the proponents that killed it, they are still in the APC.
Excess revenue derivation fund, was a constant battle with GEJ and the Governors.
Yes you are right, this isn't the first time we're having a drop in oil price, but this very crash is not only significant, it has also lasted a very long time (almost 3 years) and Nigeria had virtually nothing in savings to counter it. The last time there was a major drop in oil prices was in 2008 during the global crisis and it lasted only 6 months. At that time, the CBN pumped $20 billion (mainly saved by OBJ) into the economy and that is exactly what it cost to save Nigeria from that crisis.

Now you claim APC stopped GEJ's govt from saving?... That's a very lame excuse given by PDP and GEJ goons, a very poor attempt at playing the blame game. OBJ was taken to court to share ECA, he refused. Yaradua likewise was taken to court, but he refused to budge. GEJ was threatened too and he not only shared the money, he also didnt bother saving the 52% which was the FG's share; oh yes, states own only 48% of the funds and they intensified their demand for it when they discovered that the FG was already illegally dipping it's hands into the ECA funds. And if GEJ actually had evven the remotest intention to save, he still controlled the bulk 52% of the funds, what stopped the FG from saving that?.... Meanwhile claiming that it was APC who masterminded the agitation of the governors is laughable, PDP made up up to 25/36 of the state governors at the time; you mean to tell me only Amaechi was talking and all other 35 governors were doing what exactly?

Petrol prices was increased because he saw into the future, the save Nigeria group was born.
Every Nigerian president saw that same future and every single leader who increased fuel prices was opposed by all Nigerians. Once again it is laughable to play selective amnesia by claiming it was just Save Nigeria Group or APC that opposed fuel price increase. I opposed it and I'm sure you did too (if you can be honest with yourself). Sometimes it depends on how a case is presented to Nigerians; in 2010, fuel subsidy bill was N600bn, but in 2011, it miraculously skyrocketed to N2.13Trillion. And in order to checkmate this cruel monumental devilish thievery by the cabal, the FG told us the only thing they could do was remove fuel subsidy. Investigations by hte Ribadu panel revealed $6.8bn was the actual cost of that scam in 2011 alone, and instead of looking for how to go after that fund, FG insulted Nigerians by saying all it could do was to punish Nigerians (remove subsidy) in order to get at the cabals. ANd with that watery excuse, you really think SNG and APC were the only ones protesting?


He has been fought at every turn to make a difference.

Weakened by BH saga at the NE.

Stampeded by countless strikes.

There is so much a man can do jare.

He tried.
Every regime faces similar myriad of problems, OBJ had his fare share including militants kidnapping and blowing up pipelines. That was even part of why he made GEJ his successor. Buhari's govt similarly faced the worst kind of militant attacks and the same Bokoharam too. ANd the militant attacks bringing Nigeria's oil production down by more than 50% in 2016, coupled with more than 60% drop in oil prices, dont you think that alone is responsible for the rotten state of the economy presently?.. Militant attacks only stopped recently, coupled with oil price hitting steady $50, and now the reserves has been reloaded to ~$30bn, enabling CBN to make forex disbursements weekly. I'm sure you can already see the effects on the currency (N520 to N362 today) in just few months?... MEanwhile remember, while BH attack may have meant more funding for defence, it didnt affect the revenue stream of the country (oil sales) at all.

Check your debt profile now and tell me if this is any way to run an economy.
A country in recession needs to spend a lot of money to get out of recession, that's basic economics. Now let's not settle for a myopic analysis, I would give a simple analogy. Mr A runs a home with N100k salary yearly. The money is barely enough due to a variety of home needs and after 5 years, he has accrued a debt of N40k.
Mr B steps in to run the same home but this time, income has been slashed to N40k yearly. He struggles greatly to feed and after just 2 years, he incurs a debt of N60k.

Between Mr A and B, who do you honestly think really had a genuine reason to borrow? and who has relatively borrowed more?
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 4:57pm On Jun 08, 2017
isnovic:

Check your exchange rate regime and that of GEJs, I could say for 4 years strain the price of dollars was fixed around 150Naira to a dollar.
Nigeria is an import dependent nation which needs forex to survive; we get 93% of our forex from oil so do the maths. When forex supply is high, Nigeria can afford to comfortably maintain dollars at N150. But when forex supply starts dwindling, there is no magic that can make it maintain that exchange rate.



That's a chart showing how Nigeria's foreign reserves nosedived between Aug-2014 and May-2015 (start of the oil price drop). CBN was struggling to maintain the value of the Naira hence reserves kept dropping sharply, but even with that drop ($39bn to $29bn), the Naira still crashed from N150/N160 to N220by May 29th 2015. That is notwithstanding that oil still sold above $60 at the time. I dont need to remind you that oil kept falling till it got to $28. Now from the chart you see above, I suppose you should now understand why the new govt was forced to start forex restrictions (to protect Nigeria from degenerating to Venezuela). ANd of course restricting release of forx led to a scarcity in the market which in turn led to skyrocketing prices of dollars in the blackmarket.

SO if you think it is just the leadership of the current admin that's responsible for the current exchange rate regime, then you obviously have no idea how the exchange rate of a country works. Stop relying on just beer parlour political analysis explanations.
Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by isnovic(m): 7:13pm On Jun 08, 2017
Obailala I do not drink beer and you will not find me in a beer parlour talkless in engaging in beer parlour gist.

Yes the infographics are nice, but you deliberately left our the statistics from 2015 to 2017 to compare.



[b]1. Nigeria GDP/capital income from 2008 to 2015/16.
2. Nigeria external debt
3. Inflation rate
4. Foreign direct investment.


1. For your GDP/capital.

You will see a remarkable increase.
This where GEJ met it.

Now other indices are ranged to include the Buhari's era so you be a judge of the two.

2. Look at your external debt. from 9.5billion USD to over 11.5 billion USD in 2 years as against 0.3billion in 5 years.

3. If you look at the inflation rate you will find out that it peaked at 18, from well around 8 GEJ's time after an initial scare in 2011-2012.

4.Your FDI is investor confidence in your economy, you will find that the figure clearly shows you when the confidence peaked and what we have now.
The only time it fell in January 2015 was due to elections.
Check your stats consistency as against what we have post-2015.


Obailala, i dare say in all indices considering a year on year we had it better in GEJ's time.

Surely only those blind will say otherwise, with what is currently on ground.

Thanks and bye.[/b]

1 Like

Re: GEJ's Aerotropolis: Murtala Mohammed Airport Terminal Challenge...APC Notified by obailala(m): 9:22pm On Jun 08, 2017
isnovic:
Obailala I do not drink beer and you will not find me in a beer parlour talkless in engaging in beer parlour gist.

Yes the infographics are nice, but you deliberately left our the statistics from 2015 to 2017 to compare.



[b]1. Nigeria GDP/capital income from 2008 to 2015/16.
2. Nigeria external debt
3. Inflation rate
4. Foreign direct investment.


1. For your GDP/capital.

You will see a remarkable increase.
This where GEJ met it.

Now other indices are ranged to include the Buhari's era so you be a judge of the two.

2. Look at your external debt. from 9.5billion USD to over 11.5 billion USD in 2 years as against 0.3billion in 5 years.

3. If you look at the inflation rate you will find out that it peaked at 18, from well around 8 GEJ's time after an initial scare in 2011-2012.

4.Your FDI is investor confidence in your economy, you will find that the figure clearly shows you when the confidence peaked and what we have now.
The only time it fell in January 2015 was due to elections.
Check your stats consistency as against what we have post-2015.


Obailala, i dare say in all indices considering a year on year we had it better in GEJ's time.

Surely only those blind will say otherwise, with what is currently on ground.

Thanks and bye.[/b]
Haha.... when I said beer parlour analysis, I meant 'on the surface' analysis which isn't indepth; I didn't literally mean you were drinking beer. grin

Accept my apologies for the long epistle I'm about to write; I dont just knoe how to summarise this without killing tje details. You presented several economic indices to prove that the economy of Nigeria was generally better between 2010 and 2015; good and fine. But what you clearly did not notice is that nobody is doubting that; I haven't doubted that in any way. But I only implore you to do just one thing which will give you a deeper understanding of how Nigeria's economy works; in all those indices you presented, kindly zoom into the charts and values and analyse the trend from mid-2014 onwards. Did you notice any change?

My point is simple, the whole tumbling of the economy is purely in direct proportion to the price of oil. Nigeria's economy is dangerously tied to oil. A boom in oil sales brings about a booming economy and vice versa.


1. GDP:
Of course we are in a recession and recession means negative growth, i.e. the GDP dropping. But the drop in our GDP growth rate started from mid-2014 (when oil began crashing) and it nosedived progressively until 1Q 2016 when it officially crossed the zero line (recession). I dont need to remind you it was still GEJ and the world class economists that were incharge of the economy between mid-2014 and May-2015. We were already heading to recession during handover and it would have amounted to a wild dream if you expected buhari to perform a miracle to reversethe gdp nosedive even when the factors which led to it (oil price) got much worse (oil was still over $60 when GEJ left and it dropped progressively to $28 in 2016).

www.nairaland.com/attachments/5411323_gdp_gifa9b921e6218c89d27c14de9cfcfe7d21


2. External debt: You apparently didnt read my previous analogy on debt and borrowing. A nation in recession needs massive capital expenditure to pull itself out, hence the current spate of borrowings. While GEJ enjoyed high oil income, my earlier point was that his govt had absolutely no need to borrow, but they did. With govt revenue down by over 60% due to oil price drop and large cuts in oil production volumes (militancy), it became imperative that the govt borrowed to susyain capital expenditure because that is the only way to quickly pull a country out of recession.

3. Inflation Rate: Once again, there's no basis of comparison here. Nigeria is a nation which is pathetically dependent on imports. We do not have power for industrialisation and we import just about everything from the food we eat to raw materials to tooth pick and to almost all the energy (fuel) we use. To facilitate this unbelievable import dependence, massive amounts of forex is needed to meet our daily needs. Now 93% of Nigeria's forex comes from oil sales, but oil price crash coupled with oil production slash meant we had over 60% less supply of forex to Nigeria. Basic economic principles of demand and supply states that when the demand for a product is constant but the supply has drastically reduced, the price of the little available would go up; hence dollar price jumped from N160 to N400 to even N520.

An importer of rice who used N160 to buy $1 to import his rice now uses almost N400 to buy the same dollars. Implication is that he would increase the price of his rice; hence rice price jumped from N7000 to N20,000+. Similarly, a purewater producer imports the polythene used to package his pure water. With dollar price significantly up, he increases pure water price from N5 to N10 to even N20. All of these is inflation, cost push inflation; and I hope you now see the link it has with oil price.

4. FDI: Once again, kindly go back and check the chart you posted, focus on the trend from mid-2014 and you cant tell me you dont see the smooth decline. Mid-2014 is when global oil prices started crashing. Before I go to invest my millions or billions in any climate, I would have done a proper background check to understand how that economy works. These foreign investors aren't dummies you know? They definitely understand how pathetically dependent Nigeria's economy is on oil and with oil prices dropping massively, even the dumbest investor could spot it from a distance that Nigeria was heading for a wild storm; hence they started holding back. Even the local street early morning akara seller wouldnt want to take her wares to a poor or credit unworthy neighbourhood.

"Money go, woman go"... That's exactly how foreign investors (especially portfolio investors) are; they are fair weather friends. Between 2010 to 2014, Nigeria's economy was filled with money so they stormed Nigeria like flies gathering around shit. We can all see what happened when they started even just suspecting that the money wouod go. Foreign companies like airlines started leaving a bit late, those who didnt leave had their profits locked up in Nigeria cos there wasnt enough dollars in the CBN reserves to give to them (that's a foreign investor's nightmare, hence why most ran away earlier).

Thank God you can clearly see from your own charts that everything started turning downwards from mid-2014 when oil prices started dropping; that was close to a year ahead of Buhari stepping in. Of course the factor (oil) which led to the downturn in every economic index still persisted and even got much worse after buhari took over. So I wonder the kind of miracle you expected to happen; even Okonjo Iweala gave advanxed warning of an impending and that was in Dec 2014 when oil was even still at $75.

A stitch in time saves nine, we didnt put in right stitches in time, when the tear was already progressing, you choose to blame the new tailor (buhari) for being unable to perform some sort of magic to stop an already propagating fracture?... In summary, my point is that it is totally baseless to make any judgement on the economy of today by comparing it with when oil was booming above $100, absolutely pointless comparison because what we face today is the repercussion of decades of stupid reliance on a single volatile priced commodity.

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