The Intended Nationally Determined contribution (INDC) is a climate change agreement that was submitted at the UN Climate Conference in Paris last December. Nigeria together with about 182 parties to the UNFCCC formally submitted their INDCs . The Paris agreement will come into effect in 2020. It hopes to empower countries to act to prevent average global temperatures rising above 2 degrees Celsius and to reap the many opportunities that arise from a necessary global transformation to clean energy and sustainable development. Noticeably, countries have agreed there will be no backtracking in these climate plans to ensure that the level of ambition to reduce emissions will increase over time.

On 28th of November 2016, the Federal Government of Nigeria approved and submitted Nigeria’s INDC to the UNFCCC. Nigeria explicitly committed to 20 percent unconditional and 45 percent conditional Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emission reduction post 2020. The action plan represents Nigeria’s fair and meaningful contribution to address climate change.

Nigeria has been actively engaged in the international climate policy negotiations since it became a party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994. Whilst Nigeria ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, it submitted its First National Communication (FNC) in 2003 and a Second National Communication in February 2014. Nigeria is host to a number of Clean Development Mechanism Projects as well as projects financed by the Adaptation Fund.

Nigeria’s INDC seeks to promote sustainable development by actively delivering on government policies. The policies have been carefully drafted to set the country on the path of immediate development and sustainable economic growth by deploying efficient mitigation action plans that are economically and socially desirable to the wider Nigerians. The policies are primed to alleviate poverty, increase social welfare and inclusion as well as the improvement of individual wellbeing.

Aspect

Details

Type of objective

Reduction from business as usual

Target year

2030

Base data period

2015-2030

Unconditional and conditional objectives

20% unconditional

45% conditional

Key measures

- Work towards ending gas flaring

- Work towards off-grid solar PV of 13 GW (13,000 MV)

- Efficient gas generation

- 2% per year energy efficiency (30% by 2030)

- Transport shift car to bus

- Improve electricity grid

- Climate smart agriculture and reforestation

Emissions per US $ (real GDP)

0.873 kg CO2e (2015)

(0.491 kg CO2e(2030)

GDP per capita US$ (real GDP)

2,950 (2014)3

3,964 (2030; real 2015 US$)

Estimated emission per capita (US$)

Current: around 2 tonnes CO2e

2030 BUA: round 3.4 tonnes CO2e

2030 Conditional: around 2 tonnes CO2 e

Global warming potential used

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Cost estimate data

National cost= $142b; National Benefits=$304b.( World Bank report “low carbon development opportunities for Nigeria (2013))

Gases covered

CO2 , N2O, CH4

Emission as % of global total

< 1% (2010)

Historic emission (1850-2010)

2,564.02 million tonnes

Fig 1: Summary of Key Aspects of Nigeria’s INDC

Measure

Potential GHG Reduction

Economy-wide energy efficiency

179

Efficient gas power station

102

Work towards gas flaring

64

Climate smart agriculture

26

Reduce transmition losses

26

Renewable energy

31

Fig 2: Key Mitigation Measures

Nigeria has a great potential for climate smart development. Much of the reduction potential identified has zero net cost or indeed achieves a net economic benefit. That is, the measures would benefit Nigeria overall, even before taking into account the climate benefits. But under a business-as-usual growth scenario, consistent with strong economic growth of 5% per year, Nigeria’s emissions are expected to grow to around 900 million tones per year in 2030, which translates to around 3.4 tonnes per person. The key measures below could potentially reduce emissions by around [45%] compared to business as usual, even before taking into account the climate benefits.

Nigeria’s INDC is crafted to directly impact five major sectors in Nigeria namely; agriculture, forests and land use change; gas flaring; energy; transport and infrastructure; manufacturing; among other critical sectors. In agriculture for example, the livelihoods of Nigeria’s poorest farmers are already at risk of climate change. Ravaged by rising temperatures, too little rain or too much rain, thriving pests among others all lead to crop losses. Lack of access to improved seeds, fertilizers and appropriate technologies such as irrigation systems and finance further weakens Nigeria’s food security. The Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) initiative proffers sustainable answers to the problems of growing food demand from a growing population, declining harvests, increasing malnutrition and rising poverty levels.

Sadly, whilst the INDC is a well crafted policy document demonstrating Nigeria’s developmental intentions and road map, its implementation plan is very much shrouded in an unclear and ambiguous framework. The INDC implementation falls under the remit of the Nigeria Climate Policy Response and Strategy (NCCPRS) which will manage the works of the appropriate line ministries and agencies. This is an unwise designation. The INDC ought to be a document for the highest levels of government planning and policy implementation in any government desirous of achieving inclusive growth and sustainable development. Lofty goals such as low carbon emission levels, high growth economic development and a climate resilient society are such that they cut across board. The present administration ought to do the needful and correct this untoward abnormally.

Whilst we congratulate the Nigerian Government for putting together an ingenious policy document, it is our belief that real development across board can be only be best achieved when there is a multilateral buy-in by the relevant ministries and agencies for easy assimilation and adaptation into their respective developmental plans and initiatives in other to ensure broad, diverse and inclusive growth and development of the wider Nigerians.
http://www.sustainabilitywatchngr.com/index.php/special-report/item/592-nigeria-s-intended-nationally-determined-contribution-a-catalyst-for-national-development