In the wake of a US F/A-18 shooting down a Syrian Su-22, Russia issued strong warnings to the US by threatening to target US and US-led coalition planes in Syria.

But a head-on, conventional fight with the US is the last thing Russia wants, and it has already started to backpedal.

At first, Russia said it would target US aircraft west of the Euphrates river in Syria.

Then, just a few hours later, another statement refined that point, saying US aircraft in that region would be "tracked by the Russian [surface-to-air missile] systems as air targets."

The incident resembles the aftermath of the April 7 US strike on Syria's al Sharyat airbase, where 59 cruise missiles from US Navy destroyers took out a handful of Syrian President Bashar Assad's jets after a chemical-weapon attack killed civilians, many of them children.

At that time, Russia suspended the deconfliction line — a line of communication established to reduce the risk that Russian and coalition aircraft could get too close. Russia also vowed to meet additional strikes against Syria with force.

Military experts shuddered at the thought that Russia and the US were operating within mere miles of each other with no mechanism to deconflict possible incidents, but Russia reestablished the deconfliction lines just days later.

Now Russia has again suspended this line of communication, and again threatened force against the US. But according to Anna Borshchevskaya, an expert on Russia’s foreign policy in the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, it's all just bluster from Putin.

"I don’t think Putin wants a direct military confrontation with the US. He never wanted it," Borshchevskaya said. "In fact, I think it’s the last thing he wants."

su 24 frogfoot syria
Russia announced it will pull the bulk of its troops from Syria starting March 15, in a process that could take up to five months. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation

Borshchevskaya pointed to Turkey's 2015 downing of a Russian jet that only entered their airspace for a few seconds as evidence of Putin's lack of resolve when it comes down to brass tacks. "There were multiple ways that Putin reacted" to Turkey's shoot down "but certainly not a direct war," said Borshchevskaya.

And if Putin was wary of war with Turkey, he'd be downright fearful of a fight with the US.

"To be perfectly frank, no one can really match the US in conventional terms, and certainly not Russian armed forces," said Borshchevskaya.

Instead, Russia can continue to prop up Assad and bomb small rebel factions in asymmetrical warfare without much fear of reprisal. Similarly, Iran has sent in proxy militias to fight on Assad's behalf but likely wouldn't dream of lining up their armed forces against the US's.

Perhaps H.R. McMaster, President Trump's National Security Advisor, said it best: "There are two ways to fight the United States military: Asymmetrically and stupid."

Nick Heras, an expert on Syria from the Center for New American Security, told Business Insider that in terms of Russia directly going after US forces in Syria, "We’re not there yet in the escalation chain."

Instead, Russia is reacting to the reality that the US and partnered forces have gained control over a large swath of eastern Syria that ISIS once held, which would be "an existential threat to the Assad regime, as it opens it up to internal dissent and destabilizing," said Heras.

But as Assad-aligned actors try to nudge the US and its partners out of eastern Syria, they meet with stiff resistance. Five times in a little over a month, US-led coalition planes have struck pro-Syrian forces that they claim were advancing on or threatening their partners' positions.

"My assessment is that Assad and his Iranian sponsors have tried to test a theory to target US proxies in Syria rather than to respond to US soldiers," said Heras.

According to Heras, Assad and his allies may now try to knowingly target ground forces that have US elements in them. But Iran can do that through proxies, and Assad can do it knowing the US won't advance west toward Damascus.

But, he said, if Russia does the same with its air force, the US would respond in kind — and that would be bad news for Moscow.

"Putin responds to strength, and if he perceives weakness he always pushes ahead. That’s what happened in Syria," Borshchevskaya said.

If Putin or his allies decide to push ahead against US forces on the ground in Syria, the US seems willing to respond.
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-syria-us-shoot-down-jet-air-force-war-2017-6?IR=T

hmmmmm

Show-Of-Force on both sides is all there is for now

Ultimately, it looks like nobody is ready to go prosecute any furking war right except maybe hotheaded N/Korea.

Besides, nobody seems to know just how far Putin/Trump are in cahoots together!

And if Putin was wary of war with Turkey, he'd be downright fearful of a fight with the US.

"To be perfectly frank, no one can really match the US in conventional terms, and certainly not Russian armed forces," said Borshchevskaya.

Whoever wrote this statement must be insane - and whoever believes it must be suffering from paranoia.

If those Suhoi jets catch American planes ehnnnn

Zoharariel:


Whoever wrote this statement must be insane - and whoever believes it must be suffering from paranoia.

I wanted to ask....been arguing with someone on how powerful Putin is, how he made the Oligarch have no say in his government and he thinks it's Abramovich that should be feared instead of Putin due to Abramovich recommending Putin for presidency to Yeltsin. How Roman will remain to dictate who becomes the next president while Putin leave power and be forgotten.

What's the relationship between Putin and Roman and who do you think should be feared?

CC: Appleyard, scully95

Thanks!

IdeyFindWife:
Show-Of-Force on both sides is all there is for now

Ultimately, it looks like nobody is ready to go prosecute any furking war right except maybe hotheaded N/Korea.

Besides, nobody seems to know just how far Putin/Trump are in cahoots together!

As a matter of fact there is no show of force on the Russian side for now. The only show of force here is from the U.S lead illegal bombing of a sovereign state of Syria.

'On June 18th a US F/A-18E Super Hornet (1999) used a AIM-120 AMRAAM (1991) to shoot down a Syrian Air Force Su-22 (1970). Two days later, June 20th, a US F-15E Strike Eagle shot down[b] an Iranian IRGC Shahed 129 drone[/b]. The excuse used each time was that there was a threat to US and US supported forces. The reality is, of course, that the US are simply trying to stop the advance of the Syrian army.

This was thus a typical American “show of force”. Except that, of course, shooting a 47 year old Soviet era Su-22 fighter-bomber is hardly an impressive feat. Neither is shooting a unmanned drone. There is a pattern here, however, and that pattern is that all US actions so far have been solely for show: the basically failed bombing of the Syria military airbase, the bombing of the Syrian army column, the shooting down of the Syrian fighter-bomber and of the Iranian drone – all these actions have no real military value. They do, however, have a provocative value as each time all the eyes turn to Russia to see if the Russians will respond or not.

And yes Russia did respond this time in a very confusing manner but cannot be termed as show of force cos Russia has not shoot down any U.S lead illegal bombing of the sovereign state of Syria.

Again wrong about NK... NK is ready for war... Again if provocation like what U.S is doing in Syria is being tried with NK, NK will attack immediately and you see so far that the show of force by the U.S in the Korean penisular is useless and has no millitary value again... It did not stop Nk from test fireing missiles.