Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of October 14th, 2019

NSEASI buy 52% sell 48% MFI 18.85
Access buy � MFI 77.33
Continsure buy � volume index 0.75 MFI 44.32
Dangflour buy � MFI 29.41
Eti buy � volume index 4.06 MFI 23.70
Fbnh buy 0% MFI 53.73
Fcmb buy � volume index 1.07 MFI 37.49
Fidelity buy 0% volume index 1.11 MFI 41.47
GT buy � MFI 57.99
Jaiz buy 0% volume index 1.03 MFI 68.04
Mansard buy � volume index 3.64 MFI 34.62
Nestle buy 0% volume index 4.25 MFI 64.64
Transcorp buy � volume index 0.75 MFI 38.51
Uacn buy 0% MFI 42.41
Uba buy � MFI 40.07
Ucap buy 0% volume index 1.65 MFI 17.72
Zenith buy 0% MFI 55.83

https://investdataltd..com/2019/10/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of.html

NGSE Index Hits New Lows, Investors Position In Sound Stocks, As 2019Q3 Season Peaks

Market Update for The Week ended October 18 and Outlook for 20-25

Again, the bears extended their stranglehold on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) to its fifth consecutive weeks of decline, with the All Share Index recording daily losses throughout the trading period. This is not unexpected, given the rising risks arising from a seeming mismatch of monetary and fiscal policies that mainly heightened the September inflation rate to 11.24%, from the 11.02% recorded in August.

The continued decline of the NSE’s benchmark index was despite the recent artificial market created in the form of the new pricing methodology which moderated its movement with the prices of many highly-priced stocks becoming inactive state due to low liquidity.

News of a stress -test which revealed that seven banks of the nation’s 24 banks are not adequately funded as revealed by the 2018 Financial Stability Report (FSR) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and reported by different newspapers. This has also further dampened investor sentiments.

According to the report, despite the outcome of the stress-test, Nigeria’s financial sector remains resilient and stable enough to absorb any external shocks and to support the real sector to drive economic activities necessary to stimulate national growth and development. The report indicated that there was an improvement in the composite risk rating of the Nigerian banking industry and shown in its Capital Adequacy Ratio, which increased to 15.2%, from 12.1% in first half of 2018, reflecting an improvement in the capital cover of banks’ exposures. At the same time, Return On Assets, Return On Equity and Interest Margin recorded growth, signifying profitability in the industry.

Nonetheless, the rise in inflation as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has further dampened the probability of the CBN achieving it a single-digit target, just as it could be a warning that the Federal Government’s 10.81% projection in its 2020 budget is unrealistic. The increased growth in September’s inflation rate was blamed on a cocktail of actions such as the border closure, hike in Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 5% to 7.5%; and expected implementation of the new minimum wages for which labour and the government, last week, reached an agreement.

Heading into the festive season known for increased household consumption activities, we expect the inflation rate to continue to trend upwards, given the fact that the Federal Government and the CBN have shown no sign of readiness to reverse their policy positions on the current drivers of inflation in the country.

On the global scene during the week under review, the markets recorded improved performance with new developments about the Brexit, at a time the trade tension between the U.S and China is subsiding due to the agreement that led to suspension of the tariff hike on $250bn worth of Chinese goods which was to take effect last week. To reciprocate, China also had agreed to purchase U.S agricultural produce worth up to $50bn. This is likely to shape sentiments in developed markets and economies in this new week.

Movement Of NSEASI
Meanwhile, back home, despite the bearish nature of the market during the week, the composite NSE All-Share Index opened trading on a positive note, a situation that was short-lived in the subsequent sessions as selling pressure dominated the rest of week. The NSE index shed 0.19%, 0.16%, 0.06% and 0.03% respectively on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. This brought the week’s total loss to 0.32%, following which the index closed at 26,448.62 basis points, from 26, 533.78bps it opened, compared with the 1.68% loss recorded in the previous week.

Also, the benchmark index for the period made new lower lows, after testing 26,374.84bps that is the new support level, despite the NSE’s new pricing methodology which is seemingly moderating the market’s free-fall amidst selloffs in high cap stocks have affected the index largely. This situation was evident on the advancers’ table as it was dominated by low cap stocks, as highly capitalized remain unchanged, while some blue-chip companies continue to witnessed selloffs, despite the earnings season which kicked off with the presentation of the nine-month score-card by Guaranty Trust Bank and United Capital to the market.

Market breadth for the week closed negative with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 23:19.
The energy behind the week’s performance remained weak, despite inching up as shown in the 32.54bp Money Flow Index, compared with 32.14bps in the previous week, indicating that some stocks had inflows, despite the weak market and selloffs. The week’s trend is an indication that discerning traders and investors are taking advantage of the new low prices of fundamentally sound stocks to the position in expectation of company earnings reports. Also, the Investdata sentiment report for the week revealed mixed sentiment with ‘sell’ volume at 68%, while the ‘buy’ position was 32% on a transaction volume index of 0.63.

During the week, many companies announced their closed period and date of board meetings, preparatory to publishing their quarterly financials, while, the share price of Cutix and PZ Cussons were adjusted for dividend of 0.125k and 15kobo respectively.

NSEASI Weekly Time Frame
The chart above shows that the NSE index made a new lower low on negative sentiment and low liquidity, thereby making reversal dicey ahead of fundamental news of earnings reports, suggesting that, this downtrend may likely continue, looking at the chart formation pattern. MACD is bearish on a daily and weekly time frame. At this point, it is the interplay of market forces that will determine direction, especially as more financials hit the market in this new week. We expect bargain hunting to gather momentum during the week, as the Q3 earnings reporting season peaks.

Though the NSEASI is still trading below the 20-Day Moving Average on a daily and weekly time frame, the index action has broken down the major support level of 26,489.42bps in a bearish channel, just as the Relative Strength Index reads 31.90. However, money flow is reading 32.54 points on the weekly chart.

Mixed Sectoral Indices
The sectorial performance indexes were mixed and largely bearish, as the NSE Insurance and Consumer Goods index closed 2.4% and 0.10% higher respectively, while the NSE Banking led the decliners after losing 2.0%, followed by Industrial Goods sector, which shed 0.3%, while Oil/Gas slipped by 0.2%.

Market activity for the week in volume and value were down by 36.17% and 48.19% respectively, as investors traded 896.61m shares worth N16.56bn, compared to previous week’s 1.41bn units valued at N31.96bn. This volume was mainly driven by Guaranty Trust Bank, Global Spectrum Energy Services and Flour Mills.

The best-performing stocks for the week were Consolidated Hallmark Insurance and Fidson Healthcare, which topped the advancers’ table with 17.86% and 11.11% gains respectively, closing at N0.33 and N4.00 per share on industry recapitalization and market forces. On the flip side, Cornerstone Insurance and Cutix lost 17.95% and 12.69% respectively, closing at N0.32 and N1.31, on profit taking and markdown for dividend.

Market Outlook
The mixed performance is expected to continue in the new week, given the developments around Brexit, the US-China cease-fire which brings a major relief to the global markets, while more earnings reports hit the market to trigger speculative trading, at a time of low prices of fundamentally sound stocks. At the moment, all eyes are on the domestic macro economy expecting positive triggers in the form of policy statement and economic reforms. In the meantime, more funds are flowing towards fixed income instruments.

Discerning investors, nonetheless, should take advantage of the current low stocks valuation to position for medium to long term. It is noteworthy that the market is selling at a discount to give high upside potential.

We would, however, not overlook the possibility of a bargain-hunting motive supporting positive performance, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining under-priced. With a dividend yield of major blue-chips continuing to look attractive in recent weeks, we expect speculative trading to shape the market’s direction, despite the seeming negative outlook.

NSEASI buy 62% sell 38% volume index 0.70 MFI 16.34
Aiico buy � volume index 1.16 MFI 35.87
Chams buy � MFI 41.29
Continsure buy � volume index 1.30 MFI 48.55
Fbnh buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.28 MFI 48.17
Fcmb buy � MFI 38.68
Fidelity buy � volume index 3.16 MFI 58.15
GT buy 0% volume index 1.11 MFI 52.34
Lasaco buy � volume index 1.12 MFI 41.44
Lawunion buy 0% volume index 23.15 MFI 100.00
Transcorp buy 33% sell 67% MFI 44.59
Uba buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.29 MFI 26.73
Ucap buy � MFI 22.07
Wapco buy 0% MFI 9.31
Wapic buy � volume index 1.14 MFI 44.40
Zenith buy 0% volume index 0.84 MFI 54.64

https://investdataltd..com/2019/10/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_21.html

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of 18 October, 2019

NSEASI buy 62% sell 38% volume index 0.70 MFI 16.34
Aiico buy � volume index 1.16 MFI 35.87
Chams buy � MFI 41.29
Continsure buy � volume index 1.30 MFI 48.55
Fbnh buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.28 MFI 48.17
Fcmb buy � MFI 38.68
Fidelity buy � volume index 3.16 MFI 58.15
GT buy 0% volume index 1.11 MFI 52.34
Lasaco buy � volume index 1.12 MFI 41.44
Lawunion buy 0% volume index 23.15 MFI 100.00
Transcorp buy 33% sell 67% MFI 44.59
Uba buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.29 MFI 26.73
Ucap buy � MFI 22.07
Wapco buy 0% MFI 9.31
Wapic buy � volume index 1.14 MFI 44.40
Zenith buy 0% volume index 0.84 MFI 54.64

https://investdataltd..com/2019/10/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_21.html?m=1

Investdata Weekly Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 32% sell 68% MFI 35.44
Access buy 25% sell 75% MFI 70.28
Afrprud buy � MFI 55.76
Aiico buy 60% sell 40% volume index 0.80 MFI 57.60
Ccnn buy � MFI 53.82
Chams buy 25% sell 75% MFI 36.23
Chiplc buy � MFI 49.79
Continsure buy � volume index 3.40 MFI 84.23
Custodian buy � MFI 4.86
Cutix buy 0% MFI 55.69
Dangflour buy 83% sell 17% MFI 92.52
Eti buy 0% volume index 0.74 MFI 56.01
Fbnh buy 33% sell 67% volume index 0.82 MFI 48.32
Fcmb buy 86% sell 14% MFI 41.85
Fidelity buy � volume index 1.45 MFI 51.50
Fidson buy � volume index 3.28 MFI 41.88
Fmn buy � volume index 7.91 MFI 79.05
Glaxo buy 0% volume index 2.01 MFI 31.10
GT buy 0% volume index 1.30 MFI 41.68
Honyflour buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 46.63
Jaiz buy 0% volume index 0.73 MFI 73.80
Lasaco buy � MFI 83.02
Lawunion buy 33% sell 67% volume index 9.84 MFI 91.98
Learn buy 0% volume index 2.48 MFI 39.76
Lvstk buy � MFI 33.93
Mansard buy � volume index 1.58 MFI 56.19
Nahco buy 71% sell 29% volume index 0.89 MFI 52.98
Nestle buy 11% sell 89% volume index 5.03 MFI 67.35
Oando buy 56% sell 44% MFI 52.28
Prestige buy � volume index 1.86 MFI 94.64
Pz buy 0% volume index 2.67 MFI 47.53
Stanbic buy 0% MFI 30.62
Sterling buy 21% sell 79% MFI 57.70
Transcorp buy 75% sell 25% MFI 49.29
Uacp buy 0% volume index 0.75 MFI 58.49
Uacn buy 0% MFI 59.76
Uba buy 17% sell 83% MFI 60.94
Ucap buy 29% sell 71% volume index 0.91 MFI 45.00
Uniondac buy 0% MFI 36.90
Vitafoam buy 3% sell 97% volume index 0.72 MFI 56.28
Wapco buy 0% MFI 58.26
Wapic buy � volume index 0.73 MFI 15.85
Wema buy 0% MFI 67.99
Zenith buy 41% sell 59% MFI 40.04

https://investdataltd..com/2019/10/investdata-weekly-sentiment-report.html

NGSE Index Hits New Lows, Investors Position In Sound Stocks, As 2019Q3 Season Peaks
Market Update for The Week ended October 18 and Outlook for 20-25

Again, the bears extended their stranglehold on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) to its fifth consecutive weeks of decline, with the All Share Index recording daily losses throughout the trading period. This is not unexpected, given the rising risks arising from a seeming mismatch of monetary and fiscal policies that mainly heightened the September inflation rate to 11.24%, from the 11.02% recorded in August.

The continued decline of the NSE’s benchmark index was despite the recent artificial market created in the form of the new pricing methodology which moderated its movement with the prices of many highly-priced stocks becoming inactive state due to low liquidity.

News of a stress -test which revealed that seven banks of the nation’s 24 banks are not adequately funded as revealed by the 2018 Financial Stability Report (FSR) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and reported by different newspapers. This has also further dampened investor sentiments.

According to the report, despite the outcome of the stress-test, Nigeria’s financial sector remains resilient and stable enough to absorb any external shocks and to support the real sector to drive economic activities necessary to stimulate national growth and development. The report indicated that there was an improvement in the composite risk rating of the Nigerian banking industry and shown in its Capital Adequacy Ratio, which increased to 15.2%, from 12.1% in first half of 2018, reflecting an improvement in the capital cover of banks’ exposures. At the same time, Return On Assets, Return On Equity and Interest Margin recorded growth, signifying profitability in the industry.

Nonetheless, the rise in inflation as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has further dampened the probability of the CBN achieving it a single-digit target, just as it could be a warning that the Federal Government’s 10.81% projection in its 2020 budget is unrealistic. The increased growth in September’s inflation rate was blamed on a cocktail of actions such as the border closure, hike in Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 5% to 7.5%; and expected implementation of the new minimum wages for which labour and the government, last week, reached an agreement.

Heading into the festive season known for increased household consumption activities, we expect the inflation rate to continue to trend upwards, given the fact that the Federal Government and the CBN have shown no sign of readiness to reverse their policy positions on the current drivers of inflation in the country.

On the global scene during the week under review, the markets recorded improved performance with new developments about the Brexit, at a time the trade tension between the U.S and China is subsiding due to the agreement that led to suspension of the tariff hike on $250bn worth of Chinese goods which was to take effect last week. To reciprocate, China also had agreed to purchase U.S agricultural produce worth up to $50bn. This is likely to shape sentiments in developed markets and economies in this new week.

Movement Of NSEASI
Meanwhile, back home, despite the bearish nature of the market during the week, the composite NSE All-Share Index opened trading on a positive note, a situation that was short-lived in the subsequent sessions as selling pressure dominated the rest of week.

The NSE index shed 0.19%, 0.16%, 0.06% and 0.03% respectively on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. This brought the week’s total loss to 0.32%, following which the index closed at 26,448.62 basis points, from 26, 533.78bps it opened, compared with the 1.68% loss recorded in the previous week.

Also, the benchmark index for the period made new lower lows, after testing 26,374.84bps that is the new support level, despite the NSE’s new pricing methodology which is seemingly moderating the market’s free-fall amidst selloffs in high cap stocks have affected the index largely.

This situation was evident on the advancers’ table as it was dominated by low cap stocks, as highly capitalized remain unchanged, while some blue-chip companies continue to witnessed selloffs, despite the earnings season which kicked off with the presentation of the nine-month score-card by Guaranty Trust Bank and United Capital to the market. Market breadth for the week closed negative with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 23:19.

The energy behind the week’s performance remained weak, despite inching up as shown in the 32.54bp Money Flow Index, compared with 32.14bps in the previous week, indicating that some stocks had inflows, despite the weak market and selloffs. The week’s trend is an indication that discerning traders and investors are taking advantage of the new low prices of fundamentally sound stocks to the position in expectation of company earnings reports. Also, the Investdata sentiment report for the week revealed mixed sentiment with ‘sell’ volume at 68%, while the ‘buy’ position was 32% on a transaction volume index of 0.63.

During the week, many companies announced their closed period and date of board meetings, preparatory to publishing their quarterly financials, while, the share price of Cutix and PZ Cussons were adjusted for dividend of 0.125k and 15kobo respectively.

NSEASI Weekly Time Frame
The chart above shows that the NSE index made a new lower low on negative sentiment and low liquidity, thereby making reversal dicey ahead of fundamental news of earnings reports, suggesting that, this downtrend may likely continue, looking at the chart formation pattern. MACD is bearish on a daily and weekly time frame.

At this point, it is the interplay of market forces that will determine direction, especially as more financials hit the market in this new week. We expect bargain hunting to gather momentum during the week, as the Q3 earnings reporting season peaks.

Though the NSEASI is still trading below the 20-Day Moving Average on a daily and weekly time frame, the index action has broken down the major support level of 26,489.42bps in a bearish channel, just as the Relative Strength Index reads 31.90. However, money flow is reading 32.54 points on the weekly chart.

Mixed Sectoral Indices
The sectorial performance indexes were mixed and largely bearish, as the NSE Insurance and Consumer Goods index closed 2.4% and 0.10% higher respectively, while the NSE Banking led the decliners after losing 2.0%, followed by Industrial Goods sector, which shed 0.3%, while Oil/Gas slipped by 0.2%.
Market activity for the week in volume and value were down by 36.17% and 48.19% respectively, as investors traded 896.61m shares worth N16.56bn, compared to previous week’s 1.41bn units valued at N31.96bn. This volume was mainly driven by Guaranty Trust Bank, Global Spectrum Energy Services and Flour Mills.

The best-performing stocks for the week were Consolidated Hallmark Insurance and Fidson Healthcare, which topped the advancers’ table with 17.86% and 11.11% gains respectively, closing at N0.33 and N4.00 per share on industry recapitalization and market forces. On the flip side, Cornerstone Insurance and Cutix lost 17.95% and 12.69% respectively, closing at N0.32 and N1.31, on profit taking and markdown for dividend.

Market Outlook
The mixed performance is expected to continue in the new week, given the developments around Brexit, the US-China cease-fire which brings a major relief to the global markets, while more earnings reports hit the market to trigger speculative trading, at a time of low prices of fundamentally sound stocks. At the moment, all eyes are on the domestic macro economy expecting positive triggers in the form of policy statement and economic reforms. In the meantime, more funds are flowing towards fixed income instruments.

Discerning investors, nonetheless, should take advantage of the current low stocks valuation to position for medium to long term. It is noteworthy that the market is selling at a discount to give high upside potential.

We would, however, not overlook the possibility of a bargain-hunting motive supporting positive performance, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining under-priced. With a dividend yield of major blue-chips continuing to look attractive in recent weeks, we expect speculative trading to shape the market’s direction, despite the seeming negative outlook.


https://investdata.com.ng/2019/10/ngse-index-hits-new-lows-investors-position-in-sound-stocks-as-2019q3-season-peaks/#more

Expect Mixed Performance, Slowdown In Loses, As Investors React To Emerging Score-Cards

Market Update for October 22
The free fall of equity prices persisted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), despite the new price methodology introduced by the bourse, amidst low liquidity, which propelled the All-Share index to decline on Tuesday.

This situation could have been worse, if not for the fact that prices of highly capitalized stocks remained unchanged to a level of giving any kind of support to the index. Money flow index for the day read 4.04, indicating that funds left the market as some fund managers continue to sell down, irrespective of the ongoing earnings season.

The day’s decline means that the NSE’s Index has remained bearish over the last 15 trading sessions of the month and eight trading days after the introduction of the 100,000 units as volume needed to change price across all classes of equities listed on the exchange, except for one day- October 14, when the market closed green. The indexes showed a pattern of price action that seemingly indicates support selling going on at this price level.

The weak reaction to numbers released so far is due to the systemic risk associated with the nation’s struggling economy. However, despite the fact that all eyes are on the expected earnings reports, the possibility of a change in trend is slim, except there is exceptional news or information from the government and its economic managers strong enough to stimulate a u-turn.

As the chart above seems to indicate, there is indecision among traders and investors, who have become hesitant to trade at this historically low price levels. However, there is no evidence that the next few days will play out as the worse of 2019, given that more numbers are expected as the year gradually comes to an end for portfolio reshuffling and balancing, considering the associated peak of activities during the period, due to the festivities.

So far, earnings announcements have been met with generally weak responses, though mildly optimistic due to the subsisting economic conduction. The banking and other financial service sectors of the market are likely to rally as they post better-than-expected earnings results.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s trading started on the downside and oscillated in the midday to the afternoon on selloffs in MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, and some banking stocks, pulling the NSE’s benchmark index to an intraday low of 26,352.55 basis points, from its high of 26,409.34bps. The index, however, retraced up slightly but finished the day lower at 26,365.83bps on a huge volume.

The session market technicals were negative and mixed as volume traded was higher than the previous day’s in the midst of a flat breadth and negative sentiments, as revealed by Investdata’s sentiment reports showing a ‘buy’ volume of 22% and sell’ position of 78%.

The transaction volume index for the day stood at 2.40, just as momentum behind the day’s performance was seriously weak. Money Flow Index for the day read 4.04 points, from the previous session’s 4.57bps, an indication that fund exited some stocks and the market, as sell down persisted on the earnings release.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of trading, the benchmark index maintained its bearish path, shedding a further 24.25bps to close at 26,365.83bps from its opening point of 26,390.08bps, which represented a 0.09% drop, just as market capitalization lost N11.81tr, closing at N12.83tr, from an opening value of N12.85tr, which also presented a 0.09% value loss.
Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist.

These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning before the government economic advisory team starts rolling out their plans or advises to stimulate and re-track the economy again.

The downturn for the day was due to losses suffered by stocks like Dangote Cement, MTNN, FCMB, Wema Bank and Eterna, among others. This impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, increasing it to 16.11%, while YTD market capitalization gain dropped further to N1.12tr, representing a 9.51% improvement over the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Mixed Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bearish, except for the NSE Industrial goods and Banking that closed higher by 0.19% and 0.09% respectively, while the NSE Insurance index led the decliners, losing 0.32%, followed by NSE Banking that dropped 0.03%. NSE Industrial Oil/Gas remains flat.

Market breadth turned negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 13:12; whereas market activities in volume and value were up, by 182.29% and 474.75% respectively, to 694.12m shares worth N7.83bn, compared to the previous day’s 245.85m units valued at N1.36bn. The day’s volume was driven by transactions in Zenith Bank, Omoluabi MFB, Fidelity Bank, May & Baker, and Guaranty Trust Bank.
The best-performing stocks for the session were Courtville Business Solution and Cutix, topping the advancers table, after gaining 10% and 9.92% respectively to close at N0.22 and N1.44 each, on market forces and low price attraction proposed acquisition of Adswitch. On the flip side, Eterna and Omoluabi Bank lost 9.52% and 9.09% respectively, closing at N2.85 and N0.50 on profit-taking and market forces

Market Outlook
We expect the mixed performance to continue, but on a slowdown as the market reacts to UBA, FBNH, CAP, Africa Prudential and Okomu Oil numbers in expectation of more quarterly earnings reports, especially as the NSE’s new lows offer traders and investors opportunities to position for short and medium-to-long-term view. Given that earnings and economic news can change trend at any time, keep your gaze on fundamentally sound and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation as Q3 numbers giving insight into companies’ position and future expectations.

Also, traders and investors need to change their trading strategies due to the review of the NSE’s pricing methodology, now that all class of equities need uniform 100,000 units to effect any price changes. This may be part of efforts to mitigate the persistent price decline that has seen many stocks trading at between their five and ten-year lows and even more, in recent times.

Discerning investors should latch onto this, meanwhile, as a way of averaging down and recouping their investment immediately a recovery stage sets in, helped by economic policies, when things start to change gradually. In the process, equity prices will be influenced positively, while investors watch for sectors like insurance, banking, Industrial Goods, services, as well as oil/gas that have become defensive in recent times and could go bullish in no distant time.
Furthermore, we note that all eyes are on the newly appointed economic advisory team to settle down quickly and begin churning out policies capable of turning things around...

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/10/expect-mixed-performance-slowdown-in-loses-as-investors-react-to-emerging-score-cards/

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Market Update for October 22
The free fall of equity prices persisted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), despite the new price methodology introduced by the bourse, amidst low liquidity, which propelled the All-Share index to decline on Tuesday.

This situation could have been worse, if not for the fact that prices of highly capitalized stocks remained unchanged to a level of giving any kind of support to the index. Money flow index for the day read 4.04, indicating that funds left the market as some fund managers continue to sell down, irrespective of the ongoing earnings season.

The day’s decline means that the NSE’s Index has remained bearish over the last 15 trading sessions of the month and eight trading days after the introduction of the 100,000 units as volume needed to change price across all classes of equities listed on the exchange, except for one day- October 14, when the market closed green. The indexes showed a pattern of price action that seemingly indicates support selling going on at this price level.

The weak reaction to numbers released so far is due to the systemic risk associated with the nation’s struggling economy. However, despite the fact that all eyes are on the expected earnings reports, the possibility of a change in trend is slim, except there is exceptional news or information from the government and its economic managers strong enough to stimulate a u-turn.

As the chart above seems to indicate, there is indecision among traders and investors, who have become hesitant to trade at this historically low price levels. However, there is no evidence that the next few days will play out as the worse of 2019, given that more numbers are expected as the year gradually comes to an end for portfolio reshuffling and balancing, considering the associated peak of activities during the period, due to the festivities.

So far, earnings announcements have been met with generally weak responses, though mildly optimistic due to the subsisting economic conduction. The banking and other financial service sectors of the market are likely to rally as they post better-than-expected earnings results.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s trading started on the downside and oscillated in the midday to the afternoon on selloffs in MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, and some banking stocks, pulling the NSE’s benchmark index to an intraday low of 26,352.55 basis points, from its high of 26,409.34bps. The index, however, retraced up slightly but finished the day lower at 26,365.83bps on a huge volume.

The session market technicals were negative and mixed as volume traded was higher than the previous day’s in the midst of a flat breadth and negative sentiments, as revealed by Investdata’s sentiment reports showing a ‘buy’ volume of 22% and sell’ position of 78%.

The transaction volume index for the day stood at 2.40, just as momentum behind the day’s performance was seriously weak. Money Flow Index for the day read 4.04 points, from the previous session’s 4.57bps, an indication that fund exited some stocks and the market, as sell down persisted on the earnings release.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of trading, the benchmark index maintained its bearish path, shedding a further 24.25bps to close at 26,365.83bps from its opening point of 26,390.08bps, which represented a 0.09% drop, just as market capitalization lost N11.81tr, closing at N12.83tr, from an opening value of N12.85tr, which also presented a 0.09% value loss.
Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist.

These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning before the government economic advisory team starts rolling out their plans or advises to stimulate and re-track the economy again.

The downturn for the day was due to losses suffered by stocks like Dangote Cement, MTNN, FCMB, Wema Bank and Eterna, among others. This impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, increasing it to 16.11%, while YTD market capitalization gain dropped further to N1.12tr, representing a 9.51% improvement over the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Mixed Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bearish, except for the NSE Industrial goods and Banking that closed higher by 0.19% and 0.09% respectively, while the NSE Insurance index led the decliners, losing 0.32%, followed by NSE Banking that dropped 0.03%. NSE Industrial Oil/Gas remains flat.

Market breadth turned negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 13:12; whereas market activities in volume and value were up, by 182.29% and 474.75% respectively, to 694.12m shares worth N7.83bn, compared to the previous day’s 245.85m units valued at N1.36bn. The day’s volume was driven by transactions in Zenith Bank, Omoluabi MFB, Fidelity Bank, May & Baker, and Guaranty Trust Bank.
The best-performing stocks for the session were Courtville Business Solution and Cutix, topping the advancers table, after gaining 10% and 9.92% respectively to close at N0.22 and N1.44 each, on market forces and low price attraction proposed acquisition of Adswitch. On the flip side, Eterna and Omoluabi Bank lost 9.52% and 9.09% respectively, closing at N2.85 and N0.50 on profit-taking and market forces

Market Outlook
We expect the mixed performance to continue, but on a slowdown as the market reacts to UBA, FBNH, CAP, Africa Prudential and Okomu Oil numbers in expectation of more quarterly earnings reports, especially as the NSE’s new lows offer traders and investors opportunities to position for short and medium-to-long-term view. Given that earnings and economic news can change trend at any time, keep your gaze on fundamentally sound and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation as Q3 numbers giving insight into companies’ position and future expectations.

Also, traders and investors need to change their trading strategies due to the review of the NSE’s pricing methodology, now that all class of equities need uniform 100,000 units to effect any price changes. This may be part of efforts to mitigate the persistent price decline that has seen many stocks trading at between their five and ten-year lows and even more, in recent times.

Discerning investors should latch onto this, meanwhile, as a way of averaging down and recouping their investment immediately a recovery stage sets in, helped by economic policies, when things start to change gradually.

In the process, equity prices will be influenced positively, while investors watch for sectors like insurance, banking, Industrial Goods, services, as well as oil/gas that have become defensive in recent times and could go bullish in no distant time.

Furthermore, we note that all eyes are on the newly appointed economic advisory team to settle down quickly and begin churning out policies capable of turning things around...

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/10/expect-mixed-performance-slowdown-in-loses-as-investors-react-to-emerging-score-cards/

Expect Bargain Hunting To Intensify On NGSE, As Year-end Portfolio Reshuffling Kicks Off

Market Update for The Week ended October 25 and Outlook for 28-Nov 1

The nation’s equity market continued its decline over the past week, seemingly unimpressed by the influx of mixed corporate earnings during the period, even as the new pricing methodology introduced October 11 by the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) slowed down the losing momentum. It is therefore arguable whether the intention of the new pricing methodology (ensuring relative stability by reducing price fluctuation of highly capitalized stocks with much influence on the benchmark index) has been a success.

The mixed and mild reaction to these quarterly scorecards by market players and even companies that posted surprising numbers show the low confidence and liquidity prevailing in the market and economy. Investors may also have started considering the implications of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) directive minimum Loan-Deposit Ratio, as well as the restriction of individuals and corporate bodies from investing in OMO and Treasury Bills, in a move expected to enhance the flow of funds to the real sector, while boosting productivity.

It is apparent that the foreign portfolio investors are standing on the sidelines to see understand the Federal Government’s economic reforms and blueprint needed to stimulate growth. It is expected that advice from the Adedoyin Salami-led committee will help boost the economy and redirect it to the path of recovery and prosperity.

Movement Of NSEASI
Meanwhile, the market’s bear-run intensified, extending to six consecutive weeks of decline, as the All-Share Index opened trading on a negative note, losing 0.22%, a trend that continued on Tuesday, following sell down in some banking stocks. The negative trend was however halted at the midweek, as one of the high cap stocks appreciated, following the benchmark index gained 0.12%.

This gain was however short-lived, as the bear resurfaced on Thursday and Friday, when the NSE’s benchmark index lost 0.15% and 0.3% respectively, on selloffs, bringing the week’s cumulative loss to 0.38%. The key performance NSE All-Share index closed at 26,348.73 basis points from 26,448.62bps, after testing a 30-month new low at 26,113.99bps on a high volume.

The bear dominance and weak price movement of highly capitalized stocks were very much evident on the gainers table as low cap stocks recorded the best of performance as many high cap stocks remain unchanged, while some blue-chip companies continued to witness mixed direction, despite impressive Q3 numbers posted in the ongoing earnings season which officially ends on Thursday, October 31. Market breadth for the week closed negative with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 33:18.

The momentum behind the week’s performance remained weak, despite inching up as shown in the 35.20bp Money Flow Index, compared with 32.54bps in the previous week, indicating that some stocks had inflows, as portfolio adjustment had started on the strength of numbers released so far despite the weak and down market.

The trading pattern during the period shows that discerning traders and investors are taking advantage of the new low prices of fundamentally sound stocks to position ahead of seasonal movement and end-of-year window dressing by fund managers.

Also, the Investdata sentiment report for the week revealed mixed sentiment with ‘buy’ volume at 70%, while the ‘sell’ position was 30% on a transaction volume index of 0.90.
During the week, more than 28 companies released quarterly financials for the period ended September 30, 2019, while Okomu Oil and Airtel Africa announced interim dividends of N2.00 and $0.03 respectively.

NSEASI Weekly Time Frame
The chart above shows that the NSE index made a new 30-month low on negative sentiment and low liquidity, irrespective of financials submitted, and the positive macroeconomic indices, but on the seemingly improved buying interest as revealed by sentiment reports and candlestick formation, signals a possible reversal in the nearest time.

MACD is mixed, looking bearish on a weekly time frame while turning bullish on a daily timeframe. At this point, it is the interplay of market forces that will determine the direction, especially as more earnings reports hit the market in this new week. We expect bargain hunting to gather momentum during the week, as a reshuffling of portfolios kicks off for year-end.

This is even as the NSEASI continues to trade below the 20-Day Moving Average on a daily and weekly timeframe; the index action has broken down the major support level of 26,489.42bps in a bearish channel, just as the Relative Strength Index reads 31.37 at the oversold region. However, money flow is reading 35.20 points on the weekly chart.

Bearish Sectoral Indices
All the sectorial indexes closed red, with the NSE Industrial Goods index leading the decliners after dropping by 1.51%, followed by the NSE Insurance, which slipped 1.47%; followed by the NSE Consumer Goods, Banking and Oil/Gas that shed 0.60%, 0.40%, and 0.30% respectively.

Transactions in terms of volume and value for the week were mixed as volume traded was up by 127.77% to 2.05bn shares from the previous week 896.61m units, just as value fell by 2.6% to N16.13bn, compared to previous week’s N16.56bn. The week’s volume was boosted by transactions in Omoluabi Mortgage Bank, Zenith Bank, and Transcorp.

The best-performing stocks during the week were Cornerstone Insurance and Consolidated Hallmark, as they topped the advancers’ table with 18.75% and 12.12% gains respectively, closing at N0.38 and N0.37 per share on industry recapitalization and market forces ahead of their Q3 numbers. On the flip side, Guinness Nigeria and NEM Insurance lost 18.74% and 13.04% respectively, closing at N23.85 and N2.00, on a negative earnings position hit 15 years low and profit-taking.

Market Outlook
The mixed performance is expected to continue in the new week, given the improved buying interest as revealed by the sentiment report for the week, while more earnings reports hit the market expected to trigger speculative trading, at a time of low prices of fundamentally sound stocks ahead of month-end.

At the moment, all eyes are on the domestic economy as macroeconomic indicators look seemingly positive ahead of policy statements and economic reforms. In the meantime, funds are flowing towards fixed income instruments.

Discerning investors, nonetheless, should take advantage of the current low stocks valuation to position for medium to long term. It is noteworthy that the market is selling at a discount to give high upside potential.

We would, however, not overlook the possibility of a bargain-hunting motive supporting positive performance, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining under-priced. With a dividend yield of major blue-chips continuing to look attractive in recent weeks, we expect speculative trading to shape the market’s direction, despite the seeming negative outlook.

Investdata INVEST 2020: Opportunities and Trade Ideas Summit
Over the years, we have received requests from our followers, concerning our annual Traders & Investors Summit scheduled for December, where experts and analysts would x-ray investment and trading opportunities in the New Year.

At the forthcoming summit, participants would:
• Learn from some of the best professionals in the market
• Share Trading ideas and investment opportunity/strategi
• Offer opportunities to network with peer value investors and investment professionals who share your passion for investing
• Understand more about using Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup strategies and research tools to improve outcomes

Expected Takeaways
• Pinpointing chart patterns for Profitable Trades and investing opportunities in an uncertain market environment
• Investment analysis and theses behind these ideas
• Special Earnings and Dividend Game Plan for 2020 investment opportunities
• Understanding the changing economy and trend for profitable investment
• How successful value fund managers research into and evaluate companies
• Exclusive insight and actionable value strategies from world-class professional Traders
• Over 10 Trading and investing tips for identifying undervalued Stocks you can buy now
Date: December 7, 2019
Venue: Ostra Hall & Hotels Ltd, Opposite NNPC Gas Plant, AlausaIkeja Lagos, Nigeria

Don’t sit on the Fence call or text Stock to 08028164085, 08032055467, 08111811223 now.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2019/10/expect-bargain-hunting-to-intensify-on-ngse-as-year-end-portfolio-reshuffling-kicks-off/#more

Zenith Bank Leads Peers On 2019Q3 Profit, NGSE Dividend Yield’s Table

The board of Zenith Bank Plc, recently published its unaudited financials for the nine-month ended September 30, 2019, in line with its post-listing requirements of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

The numbers, which came slightly later, when compared to the released date of the 2018 nine-month scorecard, showed that the bank’s management kept fate with its track record of growing it's earnings on a quarterly and yearly basis over the last two decades.

The bank also continues its culture of effective and strategic risk management which has kept its Non-Performing Loan ratio within the regulatory threshold of 5.0%, with its 2019Q3 at 4.95%, lower than the full-year 2018 position of 4.98%. This reflects the bank’s high asset quality that supports its outstanding numbers that point to a higher dividend payout at the end of the current financial year.

The management’s commitment to creating value for stakeholders at all levels is evident in its operations that continue to drive profitability and other investment ratios, despite the expectation that the mandatory loan to deposit ratio will weigh down on banks’ earnings.

The bank’s Q3 numbers reveal mild performance as gross earnings and bottom line inched up, producing N4.80 Earnings Per Share (EPS) on the profit of N150.72bn. This was driven by stronger trading and fee income for the period, from 459 kobo in 2018, representing a 4.8% growth.

Nevertheless, Zenith Bank’s profit before tax on a quarterly basis stayed strong in Q3 at N64.5bn, the best in 11 quarters and market, even as it is yet to react to such positive numbers as it continues to oscillate below the price of N18 per share as at released date.

Top-line was marginally higher than the previous year’s figure by 3.51%, from N474.61bn to N491.27bn, just as profit for the period rose by 4.54% to N150.72bn, from N144.18bn in 2018. The drop in market value for the period, reflected on the earnings yield, as it moved 27.83% up at released date from 20.4% in 2018.

The bank’s cost of operation stayed flat at 0.8%, while loan loss provision for the period moved up 27.3%, thereby significantly eating into its bottom line, as reflected in the profit margin that inched up by 1.58% to 30.86% from 30.38% in 2018. Net Assets rose by 11.99% to N871.15bn, from N777.9bn, in the preceding nine-month.

The Q3 adjusted Price to Earnings ratio for the period was 1.2x, which is lower than the 1.63x recorded in the similar quarter of last year. The bank’s Book Value for the period stood at N27.75 per share, while Return On Equity for the same period improved relatively to 17.3%, from 16.53% in 2018 which is evidence of improved profit and shareholders’ fund for the period.


The bank continues enhancing its capacity to drive investment and profit ratios, as shown by the nine-month earnings at N4.80 per share, with a yield of 27.83% on the market as at released date. Retained earnings remained positive at N362.33bn, from N310.8bn in 2018, a pointer to the possibility of an increased dividend payout at the end of this financial year is high.

Loan to Deposit Ratio is currently estimated at 51.7%; while Cost to Income Ratio at 42.1x. The consistent growth of its Book Value and high margin of safety are encouraging and exciting for discerning investors and traders.

Valuation
The bank’s current share price is considered very attractive at 1.2x earnings, just as its 2019 financial year result upgraded guidance is indicative of the stronger performance that it continues to churn out, especially as it beat expectations. Meanwhile, the Book Value of N27.75 reveals an underpriced situation as the bank is fairly priced at N35 which is at a discount of 105.88% of the current market value.

Analysts Opinion/Recommendations
Also, we expect earnings from trading and fee income to continue driving and supporting profit, going forward.

Consequently, we maintain our projection of full-year EPS of N5.85 and upgrade the final dividend payout to N2.95, from the earlier projection of N2.90.
Traders and investors with whether short, medium, or long-term goals, desirous of preserving capital, should look the way of this stock, even as its Q3 result confirms our earlier upgraded guidance, after studying its quarterly results so far in the current financial year.

Investment in the stock for the next 90 days will beat any form of returns from the money market, treasury bills, and bonds. On the dividend equalization policy of the bank with growth in payout, we expect a higher dividend yield at the end of the year and put a BUY rating on Zenith Bank

Technical View


The price action of Zenith Bank for over the past three years has broken various support levels to remain in a bearish channel to test strong support level of N16.35 before rebounding to pull back again. It is trending up within a down channel on a negative sentiment despite financials news. RSI is reading 37.92 and the money flow index is looking down, a sign that funds are still exiting the bank’s shares as a result of investor concerns over the state of the economy.

Over the past three years, as mentioned earlier, the bank’s price action has formed a candlestick pattern at the bearish engulfing candle that supports the continuation of the trend. The bank is trading below its shortest moving average of 7, 14 and 21.


Four-Year Performance (2015-2018)
The price action of Zenith Bank for over the past three years has broken various support levels to remain in a bearish channel to test strong support level of N16.35 before rebounding to pull back again. It is trending up within a down channel on a negative sentiment despite financials news. RSI is reading 37.92 and the money flow index is looking down, a sign that funds are still exiting the bank’s shares as a result of investor concerns over the state of the economy.

Over the past three years, as mentioned earlier, the bank’s price action has formed a candlestick pattern at the bearish engulfing candle that supports continuation of the trend. The bank is trading below its shortest moving average of 7, 14 and 21.


Costs, risk management, and prudence is paying off in Zenith Bank’s efforts to build a world-class institution with steady growth in terms of profit, dividend payout, which have continued to impact the economy through its social responsibilities. Also, the bank has demonstrated doggedness so far, with retail banking and other segments continually supporting and driving profit.

Similarly, over the years, Book Value has grown in the same direction from N18.93 in 2015 to N22.44 in 2016 to N26.15 in 2017and finally N25.98. Finally on Investor confidence and expected supported its price as valuation tools placed the bank’s stock at N32.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2019/10/zenith-bank-leads-peers-on-2019q3-profit-ngse-dividend-yields-table/

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of October 29, 2019

NSEASI buy 0% volume index 1.21 MFI 20.29
ABC buy � MFI 77.86
Access buy � volume index 1.52 MFI 91.62
Aiico buy � volume index 2.16 MFI 57.79
Chams buy 0% volume index 1.30 MFI 7.62
Fidelity buy 0% volume index 0.86 MFI 60.72
GT buy 17% sell 83% volume index 1.77 MFI 15.59
Oando buy 0% volume index 1.17 MFI 10.58
Sterling buy � volume index 5.12 MFI 91.91
Transcorp buy 67% sell 33% MFI 35.73
Uba buy 0% volume index 0.70 MFI 48.65
Ucap buy 75% sell 25% MFI 33.39
Uniondac buy � volume index 1.54 MFI 92.49
Wapco buy � MFI 6.01
Zenith buy � volume index 1.51 MFI 62.53

https://investdataltd..com/2019/10/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_30.html?m=1

Dangote Cement Mulls Share Buyback, Reverse Share split

The board of Dangote Cement Plc, on Wednesday, said it is considering and seeking detailed advice on a share buyback and reverse share split, as well as regulatory approvals
A statement by Edward Imoedemhe, deputy company secretary, on behalf of the board warned shareholders. to exercise caution while dealing with the shares of Dangote Cement.
A share buyback occurs when a company re-acquires its own shares as a more flexible way of returning money to shareholders by paying them the market value per share and re-absorbing those portions of its own that were previously held among the public and private investors.
According to Investopedia, “in recent decades, share buybacks have overtaken dividends as a preferred way to return cash to shareholders.”

Why Buyback?
corporatefinanceinstitute.com answers this question, a company could repurchase its “shares to send a market signal that its stock price is likely to increase, to inflate financial metrics denominated by the number of shares outstanding (e.g., earnings per share or EPS), or to attempt to halt a declining stock price, to name a few.

It further gives reason why Dangote could be engaged in this scheme, when it explains that “when the stock price of a company declines below a number of support levels in a short period of time and does not show any sign of stopping, that may be a time when a company will choose to repurchase some shares. Company management hopes that the share repurchase will help support the price of the stock and halt the downslide.”
When a company buys back shares, it is seen as an indication that management is facing very positive prospects that will place upward pressure on the stock price, as the management, just like institutional and private investors, wants to see the share price rise.
This is seen as a result of their fiduciary duty to increase shareholder value as much as possible and also because these individuals are likely partly compensated in stock.

“A share repurchase generally signals to the market the company management’s firm belief that the price of the stock is going to appreciate in the short term. Going back to the concept of supply and demand introduced above, we see that under such assumptions the demand for the stock may even increase if the signal is recognized as such.”
When a company buys back shares, it may be an indication that the company is facing very positive prospects that will place upward pressure on the stock price. Examples may be the acquisition of another strategically important company, the release of a new product line, a divestiture of a low-performing business unit, etc.

Just like institutional investors and private investors, company management wants to see the stock price of the company rise. This is because of their fiduciary duty to increase shareholder value as much as possible and also because these individuals are likely partly compensated in stock. Therefore, capital gain benefits them personally.
At the end of Wednesday’s trading session, Dangote Cement share price opened at N146 each, attained an intra-day high of N150, before closing at N145 each.

Dangote Cement was listed at N135 each on October 25, 2010, and attained its lowest level of N96 per share in November of the following year. It, however, attained an all-time high of N290 in March last year.
Over the last five years, Dangcem has N122.90 at its bottom.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/10/dangote-cement-mulls-share-buyback-reverse-share-split/#more

Investdata Monthly Sentiment Report

Nseasi buy 16% sell 84% MFI 31.09
Abc buy � volume index 0.80 MFI 74.94
Access buy 67% sell 33% MFI 37.62
Afrprud buy 79% sell 21% MFI 43.44
Aglev buy � MFI 41.21
Aiico buy 86% sell 14% MFI 46.07
Beta buy 0% MFI 38.23
Cadbury buy 0% MFI 68.24
Caverton buy 30% sell 70% MFI 64.92
Ccnn buy 75% sell 25% MFI 14.32
Chams buy 40% sell 60% volume index 0.92 MFI 85.38
CIleasing buy 0% MFI 29.64
Conoil buy 15% sell 85% volume index 1.05 MFI 14.62
Continsure buy � volume index 1.79 MFI 68.09
Corner buy � volume index 0.71 MFI 83.76
Custodian buy 0% MFI 67.12
Cutix buy 31% sell 69% volume index 0.74 MFI 41.60
Dangcem buy 86% sell 14% volume index 1.29 MFI 25.05
Dangsugar buy 40% sell 60% MFI 29.85
Eterna buy 0% MFI 8.81
Eti buy 10% sell 90% MFI 2.36
Fbnh buy 17% sell 83% MFI 43.78
Fcmb buy 27% sell 73% volume index 0.86 MFI 32.11
Fidelity buy 75% sell 25% MFI 54.42
Fidson buy 89% sell 11% MFI 73.46
Fmn buy 13% sell 87% volume index 2.17 MFI 37.25
FO buy 39% sell 61% MFI 43.18
Glaxo buy 38% sell 62% volume index 1.01 MFI 14.35
GT buy 0% volume index 1.08 MFI 44.62
Honyflour buy 0% MFI 32.16
Jaiz buy 75% sell 25% MFI 46.58
Lasaco buy 50% sell 50% MFI 33.17
Lawunion buy 43% sell 57% volume index 1.76 MFI 25.93
Learn buy 71% sell 29% MFI 56.67
Lvstk buy 43% sell 57% MFI 28.38
Mansard buy 50% sell 50% MFI 53.03
M&B buy 0% volume index 1.99 MFI 65.74
Mobil buy � MFI 31.12
Nahco buy 12% sell 88% MFI 44.78
Nascon buy � volume index 1.92 MFI 66.60
Neimeth buy 18% sell 82% volume index 1.08 MFI 18.21
Nem buy 0% MFI 84.46
Nestle buy 6% sell 94% volume index 1.88 MFI 38.65
Npf buy 90% sell 10% volume index 0.90 MFI 43.48
Oando buy 2% sell 98% MFI 18.91
Okomu buy 0% MFI 42.58
Presco buy 0% MFI 39.41
Prestige buy � MFI 82.14
Pz buy 0% volume index 0.99 MFI 42.25
Red buy � MFI 34.04
Seplat buy � MFI 41.46
Stanbic buy 43% sell 57% MFI 38.96
Sterling buy � MFI 71.08
Transcorp buy 33% sell 67% MFI 52.32
Uacp buy 57% sell 43% volume index 5.30 MFI 47.25
Uacn buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.92 MFI 16.41
Uba buy 27% sell 73% MFI 38.36
Ubn buy 89% sell 11% MFI 90.38
Ucap buy 33% sell 67% MFI 30.98
Unilever buy � MFI 23.97
Uniondac buy 33% sell 67% MFI 81.01
Unity buy 0% MFI 46.95
Upl buy � MFI 42.93
Vitafoam buy 0% MFI 53.88
Wapco buy 0% volume index 1.14 MFI 66.70
Wapic buy 50% sell 50% MFI 31.96
Wema buy 33% sell 67% MFI 8.57
Zenith buy 11% sell 89% volume index 1.41 MFI 32.29

https://investdataltd..com/2019/11/investdata-monthly-sentiment-report.html

INVEST 2020: Opportunities and Trade Ideas Summit

Sub-Topics
A. Recession or Boom: Five Trading Strategies For Picking Best Stocks In Good Times or Bad-

B. 2020 Global/Nigeria Macro-Economic Outlook & Sectors To Position,

C. Critical Chart Patterns For Pinpointing Stocks That Could Explode Higher In 2020-

D. Keys To Identify Opportunities In Stocks., Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Fixed Income and Commodities Markets In Any Market Environment.

E. Mastering Earnings & Dividend Game Plan For 2020 Investing Opportunity & Beyond-

Over the years, we have received requests from our followers, concerning our annual Traders & Investors Summit scheduled for December, where experts and analysts would x-ray investment and trading opportunities in the New Year.

At the forthcoming summit, participants would:
• Learn from some of the best professionals in the market
• Share Trading ideas and investment opportunity/strategies
• Offer opportunities to network with peer value investors and investment professionals who share your passion for investing
• Understand more about using Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup strategies and research tools to improve outcomes

Expected Takeaways
• Pinpointing chart patterns for Profitable Trades and investing opportunities in an uncertain market environment
• Investment analysis and theses behind these ideas
• Special Earnings and Dividend Game Plan for 2020 investment opportunities
• Understanding the changing economy and trend for profitable investment
• How successful value fund managers research into and evaluate companies
• Exclusive insight and actionable value strategies from world-class professional Traders
• Over 10 Trading and investing tips for identifying undervalued Stocks you can buy now

Date: December 7, 2019
Venue: Ostra Hall & Hotels Ltd, Off Otunba Jobi Fele Way, Opposite NNPC Gas Plant C.B.D, AlausaIkeja Lagos, Nigeria.

Want to be among the successful investors and traders in 2020 send Yesto: 08028164085, 08032055467, 08111811223 now.

Amidst Weak Earnings, New Price Methodology Fails To Stop NGSE Hemorrhage, As Market Cap Sheds N620.35bn

Market Roundup for October
Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in the month of October, the first month of the last quarter of 2019, ended on a negative note, despite closing positive in the last two sessions of the month, extending five consecutive months of bear transition. The negative close on bearish sentiment, successfully defying the NSE new price methodology, in the midst of low liquidity and the influx of mixed corporate earnings reports released over the past two weeks, to meet the regulatory deadline for submission of the scorecards.

It is a known fact that stock markets, as leading indicators of economic activities, are forward-looking, such that current share prices reflect future earnings potentials, or profitability, of quoted companies. Since stock prices reflect expectations about profitability, and profitability is directly linked to economic activity, fluctuations in stock prices are thought to show the direction of any economy.

The continued decline of the NSE’s benchmark All Share index and the weak corporate earnings of listed companies released so far show that all is not well with the Nigerian economy. Of the 111 earnings reports made available to the investing public, all of 52 recorded lower profit, while 13 posted negative numbers for the period ended September 30, 2019.

This is a reflection of the nation’s fiscal and monetary policy stance over the past seven years, given within that time frame, the stock market was up in only 2013 and 2017, and closed negative in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. Already, the market, so far, 2019 is giving signs that only a miracle would change the direction of the market at this time, because the possibility of a positive close this year is very slim, due to the mismatch of fiscal and monetary policies. Also, the implementation of the 2019 budget has not reflected on the economy enough to complement the efforts of the monetary authorities.

The huge appropriation bills in all of these years have not strengthened our economic fundamentals to boost national output as a result of unclear economic policies. For emphasis, there are no good road networks for the movement of goods and services to the market, just as Nigerians have not benefited from the privatization of public power supply, hence the huge expenditure on private electricity generation by individuals and companies.

These have made the cost of goods and services prohibitive, in addition to the high cost of other production variables that have almost crippled the manufacturing sector as reflected in the earnings of companies in the real sector.
Despite the weak investor responses to the mixed numbers as at release dates, which is an evidence of low liquidity and confidence. As mentioned earlier, the Q3 numbers of the companies have revealed the real state of the economy in Q3, besides giving an insight into what the Q3 GDP will look like when published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The possibility of prices resisting further decline from here is high, amidst portfolio reshuffling on the strength of the Q3 numbers, just as investors would be assured of reward in the form of dividends when the full-year score-cards begin to flow into the market in the early days of 2020. It is expected that discerning investors and traders would take advantage of the prevailing low stock prices, year-end season and cycle to grow their income, ahead of major earnings season in the first quarter of 2020.

In the 22 trading sessions of October, the market was up in just five sessions, and down in 17 trading days, deepening the five months of loses, bringing the year-to-date negative position to 16.15%, which makes the Nigerian bourse one of the worst-performing MSCI Frontier markets across the globe.

The low valuation of quoted companies, their fundamentals, and the seemingly positive macroeconomic indices may attract inflow to the Nigerian stock market, with many equities selling between their 52-week and five-year lows, offering higher upside potential.

Meanwhile, the composite NSE All-Share Index in the month lost a total of 1,275.20 basis points, closing at 26,355.35 after touching a high of 27,645.46bps and low of 26,113.88bps within the period, compared to the 27,630.56 at which it opened. This represented a 4.84% decline over the period on strong selloffs that impacted negatively on stock prices, pushing them further down.

Total ‘sell’ volume for the month was 84%, and ‘buy’ position, 16%, further prolonging the bear-run in the last quarter, while volume index for the period was 0.67. Market capitalisation fell by N620.35bn, closing lower at N12.83tr, from N13.45tr, representing a 4.84% value loss. Traded volume for the period was up 17.10%, at 4.93bn shares, as against 4.21bn units recorded in the preceding month.

The ASI’s year-to-date loss stood at 16.15%, whereas market capitalisation for the same period adjusted up to N1.13tr, representing a 9.68% gain YTD from the opening value.
Market breadth for the month was negative with the decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 62:24 to extend the five months down market that was as a result of factors mentioned above.

Insurance Sector Close Positive Others Down

The sectoral performance chart below shows that the NSE Consumer Goods and Banking indexes dragged the market down the most in the month under review, while, the NSE-50 index lost 7.75%, driven by price decline in Dangote Cement, MTNN, GTBank, Zenith Bank, NB, Guinness, PZ and Lafarge Africa, the banking index fell by 8.92%, faster than the composite NSE All-Share Index during the period.

It was followed by the NSE-30, which shed by 6.69% to reflect the performance of blue-chip stocks on the exchange, while the NSE mainboard and Industrial Goods indices lost 5.85% and 4.38% respectively, revealing investors’ negative sentiment and the indecision among traders, despite the low Price-To-Earnings attraction.
The only sector that closed up during the month was the NSE Insurance, which notched 3.62% on the strength of the ongoing recapitalization n the sector,

Best And Worst Performing



The month’s best-performing stocks were low caps from the insurance sector, led by Consolidated Hallmark Insurance that gained on the strength of positive sentiment, rallying up by 42.86%, followed by industry peers- Continental Reinsurance, which appreciated by 15.94%; and Law Union Insurance’ 15.38%. University Press climbed 15.04%, despite its mixed numbers; just as NASCON Allied, 10.82%; among others.

The worst performing stocks for the period was led by Guinness, which lost shed 29.85% off its opening price, amidst selloffs and poor earnings performance in the recent numbers released; PZ Cussons lost 21.43% also as a result of its unimpressive earnings; just as Oando declined by 17.29%. Lafarge Africa closed 16.35% lower for the month; just as GTBank dropped 14.73% on the back of selloffs and profit-taking, after posting flat Q3 earnings.

Technical View
Index action for the month of October reversed the attempted rebound in September to extend the two ongoing corrections as a result of mixed sentiment and weak market fundamentals.

The market is still trading within the bearish channel and below the 20-day moving average, despite the improved volume of trade to reflect increased selloffs of stock in October, which was also the earnings reporting season.

With the mixed numbers released, trading patterns and momentum going forward are likely to change amidst portfolio rebalancing and repositioning ahead of year-end and seasonal cycles. Market technicals for the market were negative which is expected to reverse in the new month.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/amidst-weak-earnings-new-price-methodology-fails-to-stop-ngse-hemorrhage-as-market-cap-sheds-n620-35bn/#more

CCNN Shareholders Meet Dec 4, To Approve Merger, Name Change

The board of Cement Company of Northern Nigeria Plc (CCNN), on Thursday, called for a shareholders’ meeting to, among others consider the merger of the company with Obu Cement Company Plc.

The meeting, slated for December 4, 2019, in Abuja, by an order of the Federal High Court (Lagos Division), is also to approve a proposal to merge CCNN with Obu Cement Company Plc, another member of the BUA Group.

The entire assets, liabilities, licenses, and undertakings, including real and intellectual property rights of CCNN Plc, shall be transferred to Obu Cement, in consideration for the issuance of 13,143,500,966 ordinary shares to shareholders of CCNN.

The entire share capital of CCNN will be cancelled and the company dissolved without being wound up and after which the entire shares of CCNN will be delisted from the NSE in line with a scheme of arrangement put forward by the company’s directors.
Consequently, “one scheme share shall be issued and allotted and credited as fully paid to the shareholders of CCNN for every one ordinary share of 50 kobo held in CCNN as at the terminal date.”
They shall, therefore, become shareholders of Obu Cement Company Plc.

Also on the same day and in line with the order of the court, shareholders of Obu Cement will meet to among others, increase its share capital N20bn by the creation of 39.96bn new ordinary shares of 50 kobo.

The meeting is also to approve a proposed name change to BUA Cement Plc and the Memorandum of Association amended to reflect the new name and its nominal share capital raised to N20bn dividend into 40bn ordinary shares of 50 kobo each.

Although not explicitly stated in the documents, feelers are that the emergent entity- BUA Cement Plc, will be listed on the NSE, following the delisting of CCNN Plc.
BUA Group, he assured is interested in helping to further deepen the Nigerian stock market and would therefore not be contemplating delisting CCNN”

At their separate meeting, shareholders of BUA Cement are expected to approve the scheme of arrangement dated September 2, 2019, and the directors be authorized to implement the scheme, subject to any modification thereof.

Closure data for the register of members, according to the scheme document dated October 17, 2019, for the purpose of the court-ordered meeting is November 25, 2019.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/ccnn-shareholders-to-meet-dec-4-approve-merger-name-change-to-bua-cement/#more

Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking For Week Ended November 1, 2019

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/investdata-price-earnings-tracking-for-week-ended-november-1-2019/#more

Investdata Weekly Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 48% sell 52% volume index 1.18 MFI 32.32
Abc buy � MFI 51.17
Access buy � volume index 1.05 MFI 73.49
Afrprud buy 75% sell 25% MFI 52.64
Aiico buy 78% sell 22% volume index 1.55 MFI 62.92
Chams buy � MFI 31.85
Chiplc buy 33% sell 67% MFI 49.57
Continsure buy � MFI 86.83
Dangcem buy 90% sell 10% volume index 1.31 MFI 24.90
Fbnh buy 50% sell 50% MFI 53.53
Fcmb buy 9% sell 91% volume index 4.43 MFI 50.46
Fidelity buy 64% sell 36% volume index 1.45 MFI 51.90
Fmn buy 77% sell 23% volume index 0.83 MFI 79.17
Fo buy 0% MFI 28.44
Glaxo buy � MFI 29.37
GT buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.16 MFI 33.17
Jaiz buy � volume index 1.05 MFI 72.61
Lasaco buy 75% sell 25% MFI 59.61
Lawunion buy 0% MFI 81.69
Learn buy � volume index 0.71 MFI 33.09
Mansard buy � MFI 56.85
Mtnn buy 0% MFI 82.00
Nahco buy 0% MFI 68.92
Oando buy 90% sell 10% volume index 0.98 MFI 35.58
Okomu buy 0% MFI 52.78
Red buy � volume index 0.96 MFI 9.43
Seplat buy � volume index 1.35 MFI 80.43
Stanbic buy 33% sell 67% MFI 43.10
Sterling buy � volume index 1.41 MFI 62.39
Transcorp buy 58% sell 42% MFI 50.58
Uacn buy 54% sell 46% volume index 0.73 MFI 55.92
Uba buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.59 MFI 75.81
Ubn buy 0% MFI 45.94
Ucap buy � MFI 49.20
Uniondac buy 67% sell 33% MFI 68.16
Unity buy 44% sell 56% volume index 1.78 MFI 34.07
Upl buy � volume index 3.35 MFI 42.54
Wapco buy 39% sell 61% MFI 57.08
Wapic buy � MFI 23.34
Wema buy 50% sell 50% MFI 61.63
Zenith buy 31% sell 69% volume index 1.97 MFI 25.30

https://investdataltd..com/2019/11/investdata-weekly-sentiment-report.html?m=1

Red Star Express Revises Rights Issue Terms, Offers 336.855m Shares At N4 Each

The board of Red Star Express Plc, on Thursday, announced a revision of its proposed rights issue terms as stated in the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approved circular.

While the qualification date for the rights issue remains unchanged as of August 21, 2019, unlike in the previous offer document, the company now seeks to raise N1.347bn, slightly more than the previous N1.326bn.

Under the new terms, shareholders are now being offered 336,855,291 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N4.00 in the ratio of four new ordinary shares for every seven units; up from the previous 294,748,380 units of 50 kobo at N4.50 each, at one new ordinary share for every two held as at close of business on August 21, 2019.

The rights issue is expected to remain open between November 11 and December 18, 2019.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/red-star-express-revises-rights-issue-terms-offers-336-855m-shares-at-n4-each/

Nigeria’s External Reserves Sheds $1.35bn Month-on-Month

lThe latest data on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the nation’s external reserves pool dropped by $1.351bn or 3.23%, from $41.852bn between September 30 and October 30, 2019, when it closed at $40.5bn.
A review of the data showed that the reserves level did not record any gain throughout the month.

Before then it rose between May 2, from $44.792bn, first to $44.803bn and sustained a gradual growth until May 22m when it peaked at $45.073bn, after chalking $270.811m or 0.6%.

It then commenced a gradual descent until May 27, when it made a pseudo rebound from $45.068bn to $45.087bn and closed the month at $45.122bn. For the month of June, it peaked at $45.175bn on the 10th. The following month, it peaked at $45.149bn on July 5, 2019.

However, year to date, the nation’s reserves have dropped by $2.616bn or 6.07%, from $43.116bn.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/nigerias-external-reserves-sheds-1-35bn-month-on-month/

Where To Invest, And Outlook For November, December 2019

The global economy recorded weak growth over the past month, as revealed by recent mixed macro-economic data emanating from the developed world, especially as manufacturing indexes and GDP figures from US, China, and Europe at 1.92%, 6% and 0.20%, slower, a decline and even flat growth respectively.

The impact of the lingering trade dispute between the world’s biggest economies has continued to reflect in the form of oscillating commodity prices, particularly in crude oil. Improvements in manufacturing activities due to stimulus packages and a rate cut in the midst of economic slowdown and weaker Q3 GDP numbers, besides the mixed sentiments in stock markets, are likely to turn positive given that the monetary policy slants of central banks are now targeted at boosting national productivity and growth.

Back home, it was another bearish and volatile week and month of October on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), as prices suffered further decline and in the process, created more opportunities for high upside profit potential among discerning traders and investors. They have, therefore, continued taking advantage of the current undervalued nature of the market to position ahead of the earnings season.

Given this scenario, the market is likely to stage a reversal in the months ahead, as the government begins to do the needful and improve economic fundamentals necessary to drive and support national productivity and growth. With the just concluded earnings season despite the mixed performance, the profitability level of many companies can still support a price rally and high dividend payout, due to the current low prices.

Technically the current market and economic scenario are not different from what they were in 2016. The difference is however that we are not in a recession, as the gross domestic product (GDP) remain positive on a slower growth, even as corporate earnings are not as bad as they were between 2015 and 2016, when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervened early in 2017 by way of foreign exchange policy reforms that brought relative stability to the nation’s currency, while triggering inflows that supported the 2017 recovery. The current equity prices are almost at the same level as 2016. The market has suffered losses since early 2018, owing to reasons ranging from uncertainties arising from the 2019 general elections to the weak economy, the prevailing low liquidity and confidence levels.

As mentioned earlier, the recently released quarterly corporate earnings of listed companies as of September 30, 2019, confirm Nigeria’s mixed macro-economic situation, revealing the slow growth, with the Q2 GDP figure rising by just 1.94% as shown in the 2019Q2 data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This is besides the resurgence in September inflation of 11.24%, after touching 11.02% in August, its lowest in five years; just as Purchasing Managers Index recorded expansion in the manufacturing activities at 58.2 points in October, from the previous month’s 57.7 point, helped by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention, and increasing activities in preparation for the oncoming festivities in the last quarter of the year.

In November, we expect inflation for the month of October to continue its gradual uptrend movement as a result of the border closure, implementation of new minimum wage and expected increased consumption in view of the festive period. It is also expected that the Purchasing Managers’ Index would improve again to further support the recovery in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, despite the unimpressive Q3 numbers from the sector which were below market and analysts’ expectations.

With only a few quarterly earnings remaining, market players are expected to reposition and balance their portfolios ahead of full-year earnings in the first quarter of 2020. This will, however, be based on their interpretation of the recently released scorecards and changes that will keep the market oscillating.

The Q3 numbers are expected to strengthen market fundamentals, given that stock prices are low and the business environment will likely lookup. The huge intrinsic value in the market at this period is a plus and should guide investors to know where to look while seeking to invest profitably for the rest of the year and beyond. The market’s Price to Earnings Ratio of 7.1x shows how cheap equities are selling at the exchange because it is below the average PE ratios of 15.6x and 13.7x in BRICS and Africa markets respectively. Even below the price to earnings ratio of 12.0x in 2016 and 9.2x in 2018.

NSEASI WEEKLY TIME FRAME CHART

The NSE Index in 2017 recorded a gain of 42.3% on seeming improvements in economic fundamentals that helped the exit from recession on the CBN’s exchange policy and intervention that attracted inflows after the market had witnessed declines for three consecutive years. The market, owing to a two-year pullback has lost 41.99%, almost all of its gains in 2017, from the high of 45,321.8 basis points in January 26, 2018 to November 1, position of 26,293.30bps, thereby creating opportunities for more profit at lower risks as the CBN’s unconventional policy and directives will likely boost liquidity in the coming months.

Traders and investors who understand the importance of combining fundaments and technical analysis in making investment decisions in the stock market should take the opportunity of any pullback in prices to position in some sectors for short, medium and long term gains, especially in the new sectors, like Telecommunication and Services. Others are banking, agribusiness, building material, and oil/Gas after careful study of the recent price pattern and fundamental data available in the market.

What to expect in November and December
• Seasonal trending as few quarterly numbers are expected and there will be an impact. However, blue-chip companies will continue to oscillate on the strength of company and market fundamentals as repositioning and rebalancing continue till year-end.
• The oscillating trend of equity prices as a result of the repositioning of portfolios along the line of positive numbers by foreign and local investors will boost activities in the remaining months of the year.
• Market outlook for the new month remains mixed as few quarterly earnings still being are expected. But positive sentiments and strong momentum may not be out of place as the market expects the economic recovery to be strengthened with the last hour implementation of the 2019 budget.
• The relatively low price to earnings in the market may further attract demand for stocks. But then, invest wisely, using bids, offers, and volume, when making decisions as a trader.
• Managing risk and protecting capital at this point is very important, so you can determine when to buy or sell by watching stocks and the market, using technical analysis.
• Let numbers released by the various companies guide your decision and time to stay in that position.

Take Action
INVEST 2020: Opportunities and Trade Ideas Summit
Sub-Topics
A. Recession or Boom: Five Trading Strategies For Picking Best Stocks In Good Times or Bad-
B. 2020 Global/Nigeria Macro-Economic Outlook & Sectors To Position,
C. Critical Chart Patterns For Pinpointing Stocks That Could Explode Higher In 2020-
D. Keys To Identify Opportunities In Stocks, Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Fixed Income and Commodities Markets In Any Market Environment.
E. Mastering Earnings & Dividend Game Plan For 2020 Investing Opportunity & Beyond-

Over the years, we have received requests from our followers, concerning our annual Traders & Investors Summit scheduled for December, where experts and analysts would x-ray investment and trading opportunities in the New Year.

At the forthcoming summit, participants would:
• Learn from some of the best professionals in the market
• Share Trading ideas and investment opportunity/strategies
• Offer opportunities to network with peer value investors and investment professionals who share your passion for investing
• Understand more about using Investdata Buy & Sell Signal setup strategies and research tools to improve outcomes

Expected Takeaways
• Pinpointing chart patterns for Profitable Trades and investing opportunities in an uncertain market environment
• Investment analysis and theses behind these ideas
• Special Earnings and Dividend Game Plan for 2020 investment opportunities
• Understanding the changing economy and trend for profitable investment
• How successful value fund managers research into and evaluate companies
• Exclusive insight and actionable value strategies from world-class professional Traders
• Over 10 Trading and investing tips for identifying undervalued Stocks you can buy now
Date: December 7, 2019
Venue: Ostra Hall & Hotels Ltd, Off Otunba Jobi Fele Way, Opposite NNPC Gas Plant C.B.D, Alausa, Ikeja Lagos, Nigeria.

However, with less than 65days into the year 2020, you need to start planning now because it is either you plan to succeed in 2020 or you don’t decide. Instead, you fold your hands means you are planning to fail. So, this practical summit is first of its kind because a team of experts will be revealing pure practical trade ideas and opportunities in 2020 to recoup your losses and maximize returns no theory. That is, what you can apply or implement immediately and start tracking the result by yourself.

Want to be among the successful investors and traders in 2020 send ‘Yes’ or ‘Stock’ to 08028164085, 08032055467, 08111811223 now.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/where-to-invest-and-outlook-for-november-december/#more

Elumelu Woos French Investors With Africa’s Long-term Opportunities

Tony Elumelu, founder of the Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF) and Chairman, United Bank for Africa Plc, as well as Heirs Holdings, last week secured a promise of increased investment inflow towards Africa from France.

Speaking at the opening of the “Ambition Africa” conference organised by the France Invest Africa Club in Paris, France, Elumelu, in his opening address urged French investors to look to Africa for long term investment opportunities.
In doing so, he spoke of the need for better and smarter ways of channelling funds to emerging markets, which he explained, “present huge opportunities – as well as risks for investors.”

That notwithstanding, he challenged investors to “fulfill a critical need to catalyse and improve the economy. We salute companies like Total, Bouygues, Accor, Orange, and Bolloré as well as others who have accepted this challenge, but there is room for many more.”
Elumelu stressed the importance of private equity inflow into Africa, with a focus on investing in small and medium scale businesses, the lifeblood of the African economy.

Africa, he continued, has the youngest workforce in the world, with over 60% of its population below the age of 25, a potential demographic doom that could be turned around to become the continent’s greatest asset if the youths have jobs and economic opportunities.

He reiterated earlier assertion that “Africans do not need aid. Rather, our young people need investments.
“Private equity is a force for positive development in Africa. We have a large youth population, who are eager and innovative. They are looking at solutions to problems in their communities but are hampered by the access to capital and investment, mentoring and training. When done right, this kind of investment can bring not just capital but can also strengthen job creation, corporate governance and help improve sustainable business practices.”
He noted the impact and growth rate of the beneficiaries of his Tony Elumelu Foundation as evidence of the potential of SMEs in Africa today.
His Foundation has endowed $100m of his family wealth, to fund over 10000 African entrepreneurs in ten years, commending the initiative of French President, Emmanuel Macron, for strengthening the relationship between France and Africa and concluded by inviting investors to consider investing in Africa for the long term.

“The key phrase here is long term investment – no one should come to Africa for short term gain. The time is now to invest in Africa. Private equity has to be part of it. We need it for all,” he concluded.
Reacting, the French Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, who introduced Elumelu to the audience, assured that France could position itself and direct investment towards the continent.

This, he believes, would end the cycle of poverty accelerate development globally, commending Elumelu’s stance on strengthening African SMEs to catalyse development.
“We share the same ambition in Supporting African SMEs and entrepreneurs as this is essential for the economic development of Africa,” he said, referring to Elumelu’s passion to create wealth on the African continent.

Reiterating the stance to partner with Africa on long-term investments, Le Maire promised that France would “ensure that investments in Africa are sustainable, exemplary and environmentally friendly. We want to go fast, go quickly in the race against poverty and renunciation, throughout the continent”.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/elumelu-woos-french-investors-with-africas-long-term-opportunities/#more

NGSE Indicators Turn Green, As Investors Go For Sound, Low Priced, Dividend Stocks

Market Update for November 4

The benchmark All-Share index of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) started the week positive on Monday, as market players reposition their portfolios as stocks continue to trade at their 52-week, five and 10-year lows, amidst strong fundamentals as recently reflected in their latest quarterly score-cards and earnings/dividend possibilities at year-end. The seeming return of energy at the close of Monday trading is a signal that reversal is underway if this momentum is sustained on the increasing buy interest and improved traded volume.

The benchmark index closed higher, wiping off the previous day‘s loss position, despite the continued volatility and mixed trades during the session. What is clear is that those earnings that beat market and analysts expectations have become the toasts of investors, especially banking and building material stocks, even as as oil prices climb higher, in the midst of the latest directive by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) restricting corporates and individuals from playing in the OMO and treasury bills’ market (READ MORE).

It looks like this directive and other unconventional monetary policy measures so far taken have triggered an inflow of funds to the real sector and equity market. Investdata analysts expect that the changing capital formation and flow of funds in the economy will soon begin to influence the market positively, as productivity improves to support the system.

Monday’s trading started on a slightly upside movement in the morning but fluctuated while yet sustaining the positive trend throughout the session, touching an intraday high of 26,433.95 basis points, from its low of 26,293.30bps. It, however, adjusted downward marginally, to finally finish the day above its opening point at 26,401.30 points on a high traded volume.

Market technicals for the day were positive and mixed as volume traded was higher than the previous day’s in the midst of positive breadth and improved buying sentiments, as revealed by Investdata’s reports showing a ‘buy’ volume of 77% and sell’ position of 23%.

The transaction volume index stood at 1.61, while momentum behind the day’s performance remained weak, despite the Money Flow Index moving up significantly to read 41.23 points, from the previous session’s 33.05bps. This is an indication that funds entered some stocks and the market.

During the session, stocks like conglomerate- Unilever Nigeria, MRS Oil, Unity Bank, Capital Hotel and RT Briscoe attained their new 52-week low.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of Monday’s trading, the NSE composite index gained 107.76bps to close at 26,401.30bps from its opening point of 26,293.30bps, which represented a 0.41% growth, just as market capitalization was up by N52.45bn, closing at N12.85tr, from an opening value of N12.8tr, which also presented a 0.41% value gain.

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Monday’s upturn was driven by the seeming buying interests in MTN Nigeria, Guaranty Trust Bank, UBA, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, CCNN, PZ Cussons, Honeywell Flour Mills, FBN Holdings, Wema Bank and Champion Breweries. These impacted positively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, reducing it to 16%, while market capitalization gain stood at N1.13tr, representing a 9.65% improvement over the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Mixed Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bearish, except for the NSE Banking and Industrial goods that closed higher by 2.49% and 0.65% respectively while the NSE Consumer Goods index led the decliners after losing 1.27%, followed by NSE Insurance and Oil/Gas that lost 0.73% and 0.12% respectively.

Market breadth turned positive as advancers outweighed decliners in the ratio of 18:12, while market activities were mixed as volume traded was up 52.43% to 368.18m shares from the previous day 241.55m units. Transaction value however suffered a 23.86% decline, from N3.64bn to N2.77bn. This volume was boosted by trades in Access Bank, Law Union, UBA, Zenith Bank and Lafarge Africa.

Champion Brewery and Honeywell were the best-performing stocks, topping the advancers table, after gaining 10% and 9.47% respectively to close at N0.99 and N1.04 each, on market forces. On the flip side, Fidson Healthcare and Unilever lost 10% and 9.93% respectively, closing at N3.60 and N24.05 on unimpressive earnings and selloffs.

Market Outlook
We expect the mixed performance to continue on the renew positive sentiment and momentum, as the market continues to interpret the recently released company scorecards and align their portfolios along with the impressive numbers, in expectation of improved liquidity and positive economic data.

This is especially as the NSE’s new lows offer investors opportunities to position for short and medium-to-long-term views. We expect that investors would target fundamentally sound and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation as the year draws down.

Also, traders and investors need to change their trading strategies due to the review of the NSE’s pricing methodology, now that all class of equities need uniform 100,000 units to effect any price changes. This may be part of efforts to mitigate the persistent price decline that has seen many stocks trading at between their five and ten-year lows and even more, in recent times.

Discerning investors should latch onto this, meanwhile, as a way of averaging down and recouping their investment immediately a recovery stage sets in, helped by economic policies, when things start to change gradually. In the process, equity prices will be influenced positively, while investors watch for sectors like insurance, banking, Industrial Goods, services, as well as oil/gas that have become defensive in recent times and could go bullish in no distant time.

Furthermore, we note that all eyes are on the newly appointed economic advisory team to settle down quickly and begin churning out policies capable of turning things around.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/ngse-indicators-turn-green-as-investors-go-for-sound-low-priced-dividend-stocks/#more

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of 6 November, 2019


NSEASI buy 77% sell 23% volume index 1.66 MFI 41.23

Access buy 64% sell 36% volume index 3.27 MFI 88.85

Afrprud buy 0% volume index 1.43 MFI 24.39

Caverton buy � volume index 2.18 MFI 100.00

Ccnn buy � volume index 4.26 MFI 73.05

Chams buy � MFI 14.67

Chiplc buy � volume index 3.93 MFI 65.92

Fbnh buy 0% MFI 36.05

Fidelity buy � volume index 1.75 MFI 71.19

Honyflour buy � volume index 2.62 MFI 72.26

Jaiz buy 0% volume index 1.81 MFI 42.25

Lasaco buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.41 MFI 27.38

Lawunion buy 0% volume index 22.85 MFI 85.98

Nahco buy � volume index 2.92 MFI 81.23

Oando buy 0% volume index 2.10 MFI 36.67

Pz buy 0% volume index 3.26 MFI 21.02

Regalins buy 0% volume index 22.58 MFI 100.00

Sterling buy � MFI 94.59

Transcorp buy 33% sell 67% volume index 0.87 MFI 26.29

Uba buy 88% sell 12% volume index 4.31 MFI 74.28

Wema buy � MFI 38.60

Zenith buy 75% sell 25% volume index 1.31 MFI 72.29


https://investdataltd..com/2019/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of.html?m=1

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 51% sell 49% volume index 1.35 MFI 39.48
Access buy � volume index 0.74 MFI 88.84
Afrprud buy � volume index 1.44 MFI 31.06
Aiico buy 50% sell 50% volume index 4.50 MFI 57.59
Chiplc buy � volume index 1.77 MFI 71.17
Fbnh buy � MFI 33.31
Fcmb buy � MFI 72.60
Fidelity buy 67% sell 33% volume index 0.90 MFI 72.34
GT buy 25% sell 75% volume index 1.15 MFI 15.48
Honyflour buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.80 MFI 62.70
Lawunion buy � volume index 12.11 MFI 91.70
M&B buy 0% volume index 1.33 MFI 1.26
Nahco buy � volume index 2.86 MFI 67.02
Stanbic buy � volume index 3.60 MFI 82.52
Transcorp buy 0% MFI 18.15
Uba buy 75% sell 25% volume index 3.68 MFI 78.74
Ucap buy � MFI 49.78
Wapco buy � volume volumes index 4.03 MFI 24.83
Wema buy 0% MFI 41.13
Zenith buy 13% sell 87% volume index 1.41 MFI 74.08

https://investdataltd..com/2019/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-of.html?m=1

Airtel Awaits CBN Approval For Payment Service, Super-Agent Banking Licenses

The management of telecommunications giant, Airtel Africa Plc, at the weekend told investors it is awaiting Approvals-In Principle from the Central Bank of Nigeria CBN) to enable it launch its mobile money and super agent banking services in Nigeria.

The company, which hosted a group investor session in Lagos to discuss its numbers for the half-year ended September 30, 201, as well as the outlook for the business, assured that it has submitted a applications, and fulfilled the set conditions for AIPs for Payment Service Bank PSB) and super-agent licenses, which it hopes will be granted in the next couple of months, or early 2020.

Airtel Money, the management continued, will be parallel supply side for the poor outside of the banking system, serving as a fintech company and bank for the unbanked.

A note to clients, analysts at cordros Capital Ltd, a member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Wednesday, quoted the group as saying it is not worried that competitors- Glo and 9mobile have only been issued AIPs.
Airtel assured that it not new to playing catchup in different areas of its operation, noting nevertheless that mobile money operations are yet to kick off, just as they do not possess the scale of their bigger multinational counterparts.

Airtel recalled its current success in mobile money operations in Zambia where it had to play catchup for seven years, a market then dominated 99% by MTN and another player, successfully turning the table to become the biggest player in that space.

It also recalled having to play catchup in 4G as well, being the last to begin rollout in Nigeria, and now has the largest network in the country.
Management of the telco was also quoted as saying Nigeria is an untapped market for mobile money, with significant revenue potential, hence the huge opportunities for everyone.

In the area of currency risk to its operations, the company noted that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a highly dollarised economy, and would help mitigate such risk, with all local currency transactions done at prevailing exchange rate daily. Another help, it noted is that Chad, Niger, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville use the CFA Franc, which is pegged to the Euro, resulting in marginal movements and impacts.

The major currency risk in the group’s operation were identified as East Africa and Nigeria, following which it ensures foreign and local currency debts are balanced daily, stressing that outside of Nigeria average currency devaluation over the last three to five years across countries of its operation has hovered around 3%. Going forward, it anticipates average devaluation of between 2.5% and 3.0%, in the medium term.

Airtel assured that a large portion of its debt is short term and taken at local operating company level, totaling US235m in local currencies, while US$562m is foreign; in addition to US$1.2bn in finance lease obligations payable over a seven to 10-year period.

There is also another US$2.7bn of foreign currency debt at Holdco level due between March 2020 and 2024, just as the group has US$1.5bn cash in banks –sufficient to pay upcoming obligation. There are also enough facilities in hand, it continued, to take up as and when required to do so for the rest of the debt.

Airtel’s management told the analysts that its Nigerian business is debt free, besides its lease obligation.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/airtel-awaits-cbn-approval-for-payment-service-super-agent-banking-licenses/

C&I Leasing To Raise N3.56bn Via Rights, Lists 539m Shares

The board of C&I Leasing Plc, on Wednesday, announced plans to raise N3.56bn by way of rights to existing shareholders.

In a notice to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), the company said the fund is being sourced via an offer of 53.003m ordinary shares of 50 kobo by way of rights at N6 each on the basis of four new ordinary shares for every three held.

While the qualification date for the Rights Issue is Wednesday, 4 September 2019, it is, however, subject to the approval of the executed offer documents by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC).

The application list is however expected to open on November 11, 2019, or any other date approved by the Commission and shall open for a maximum period of 28 days.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/ci-leasing-to-raise-n3-56bn-via-rights-lists-539m-shares/

NGSE Indices Stay Red, As Low Confidence Hampers Real Sector Funding Efforts


Market Update for November 6
Again, trading on the nation’s stock market, at midweek, closed bearish, propelled by continued selloffs among highly capitalized stocks in the midst of huge buying opportunities and cautious trades with a renewed focus on value investing, given that the Q3 numbers reveal the true state of the economic and company fundamentals. The expected redirection of funds into the real sector and stock market remain slow, hampered by low confidence in the entire system, especially on the economic front which has limited inflows into the market.

Looking at performance across the sectors during the earnings season and after, accumulation in some sectors and stocks shows that value investing is gaining ground as discerning investors and traders position to turn the prevailing big opportunities to profits in no distant time.
With the prospects of a trade-war-absent global economy, going forward into 2020, there is a growing likelihood, in our view, of an economic boom that would coincide with the sustained regulatory tightening on Nigeria’s economic disrupters. With that, those companies and industries that have been disrupted are in the position to regain market share. That will happen, only where there is tremendous pent-up value in the stock market.
Midweek, trading started on the downside in the morning and was sustained throughout the session as sell down continued in some high cap stocks, pushing the NSE index to an intraday low of 26,223.66 basis points, where it to closed for the day, from its high of 26,367.19bps, on a lower traded volume.

Market technicals for the day were negative as volume dropped lower than the previous day’s in the midst of a negative breadth and high sell pressure, as revealed by Investdata’s reports showing a ‘sell’ volume of 100% and buy’ position of 0%. The transaction volume index stood at 0.98, while the impetus behind the day’s performance remained weak, as Money Flow Index slowed down to 38.62 points, from the previous session’s 39.48bps. This is an indication that funds exited the market. During the session, Presco made a new three-year low.

Index and Market Cap
At the end Wednesday’s trading, the composite index NSEASI shed 151.69bps to close at 26,223.66bps from its 26,375.35bps opening, which represented a 0.58% decline, just as market capitalization lost N73.84bn, closing at N12.77tr from an opening value of N12.84tr, which also presented a 0.58% value loss in investors’ portfolio.

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Midweek’s downturn was due to the persistent sell down in stocks like Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria, Presco, Stanbic IBTC, UBA, International Brewery, and FBN Holdings. These impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, which rose to 16.57%, while market capitalization gain fell to N1.04tr, representing 8.91% up from the year’s opening value of N11.72tr.

Bearish Sector Indices
All the sectoral performance indexes were down on Wednesday, except for the NSE Oil/Gas that closed flat, while the NSE Consumer Goods index led the decliners, after shedding 0.50%, followed by NSE Industrial goods by 0.45%, while the NSE Banking and Insurance indices shed 0.05% and 0.03% respectively.
The session’s breadth was negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 12:10, while market activities were down in volume and value traded by 23.68% and 21.80% respectively to 232.22m shares worth N3.12bn from the previous day’s 304.28m units valued at N3.99bn. Volume was boosted by transactions in UBA, Access Bank, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank and Transcrop Plc.
Cornerstone Insurance and Law Union were the best-performing stocks, topping the advancers table, after gaining 8.89% and 8.70% respectively to close at N0.49 and N0.50 each, on the back of positive sentiments for the ongoing industry recapitalization and market forces. On the flip side, Presco and International Brewery lost 9.90% and 9.69% respectively, closing at N34.60 and N10.25 on the unimpressive earnings and market forces.

Market Outlook
We expect the mixed trend to continue on value investing and selloff as the market continues to interpret the Q3 scorecards and align their portfolios along with the impressive numbers, in expectation of improved liquidity and positive economic data. This is especially as the NSE’s new lows offer investors opportunities to position for short and medium-to-long-term views. We expect that investors would target fundamentally sound and dividend-paying stocks for possible capital appreciation as the year draws down.
Also, traders and investors need to change their trading strategies due to the review of the NSE’s pricing methodology, now that all class of equities need uniform 100,000 units to effect any price changes. This may be part of efforts to mitigate the persistent price decline that has seen many stocks trading at between their five and ten-year lows and even more, in recent times.

Discerning investors should latch onto this, meanwhile, as a way of averaging down and recouping their investment immediately a recovery stage sets in, helped by economic policies, when things start to change gradually. In the process, equity prices will be influenced positively, while investors watch for sectors like insurance, banking, Industrial Goods, services, as well as oil/gas that have become defensive in recent times and could go bullish in no distant time.
Furthermore, we note that all eyes are on the newly appointed economic advisory team to settle down quickly and begin churning out policies capable of turning things around.

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https://investdata.com.ng/2019/11/ngse-indices-stay-red-as-low-confidence-hampers-real-sector-funding-efforts/

Dangote flour will be delisting soon from The NSE pursuant to the court order. All shareholders in the register of members of DFM on the 31st of October 2019 will be entitled to receive N24 in cash for each share held, which many have received payment already since Tuesday. Shareholders are encouraged to complete their electronic payment registration with the Registrar in order to avoid any delay in receiving payment.

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of November 8, 2019

NSEASI buy 23% sell 77% volume index 2.91 MFI 35.00
Access buy � volume index 2.94 MFI 95.38
Fbnh buy 0% volume index 1.11 MFI 39.08
Fidelity buy 14% sell 86% volume index 1.11 MFI 63.09
GT buy � MFI 32.74
Honyflour buy 0% volume index 5.78 MFI 28.09
Jaiz buy 50% sell 50% volume index 27.59 MFI 97.79
Transcorp buy 0% MFI 21.87
Uba buy � MFI 72.52
Ucap buy � volume index 1.33 MFI 72.10
Wema buy 0% volume index 0.86 MFI 40.32
Zenith buy 12% sell 88% volume index 1.39 MFI 70.04

https://investdataltd..com/2019/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_10.html