Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of August 27, 2019

NSEASI buy 15% sell 85% volume index 0.73 MFI 36.15
Access buy 67% sell 33% MFI 47.22
Chams buy � volume index 1.35 MFI 42.86
Continsure buy 0% volume index 1.81 MFI 40.10
Dangcem buy � volume index 1.00 MFI 33.06
Dangsugar buy 0% volume index 1.63 MFI 28.22
Eti buy � volume index 0.97 MFI 65.43
Fbnh buy 67% sell 33% MFI 41.53
Fcmb buy 0% MFI 64.27
Fidelity buy � volume index 0.92 MFI 34.62
Fo buy 0% volume index 5.48 MFI 35.57
GT buy 45% sell 55% MFI 45.25
Jaiz buy � volume index 2.29 MFI 26.19
Nestle buy � volume index 2.89 MFI 92.00
Oando buy 0% MFI 39.35
Sovereins buy � volume index 5.02 MFI 99.96
Transcorp buy 0% volume index 1.88 MFI 69.87
Uacn buy 75% sell 25% volume index 0.74 MFI 67.42
Uba buy 33% sell 67% volume index 1.10 MFI 70.34
Wema buy � volume index 0.71 MFI 48.24
Zenith buy � volume index 0.80 MFI 55.53

https://investdataltd..com/2019/08/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_27.html

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Investors Await Confirmation Of Failed Rebound On NGSE, Q2 GDP Data For Next Move

Market Update for August 26
The last full trading week of the month of August on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) which started Monday was yet another mixed session on a negative note, signaling a failed bear rally. This was, however, earlier foreshadowed on Friday, when the market’s gaining momentum witnessed a slowdown, with a Monday’s volume traded declining sharply on mixed sentiments. A confirmation of this failed rebound will, however, depend on today’s market forces, because the intraday low is yet to be undercut.

Rebound or recovery is said to sustain when the composite index follows through on four or more days after a rally attempt. The first two or three days of the rally are normally disregarded, given that its success has not yet been proven to follow through with power and conviction. A follow-through day occurs when at least one of the major indexes makes a large percentage gain on higher volume traded which should generally be in the region of 2% or more. All days of the rally do not need to be up, some may be down, however the low of the most current rally must not be under-cut, or the rally would be considered a failure.
Of course, the stock market remains an important barometer of economic sentiment. In that regard, the week started on a cautious trading note with what seems to be a wait-and-see for what the economic policies and direction of the new Federal Executive Council (FEC) will be, just as reflected in the low traded volume.

Meanwhile, the composite NSE All-Share index opened Monday’s trading on a slight upside in the morning, an extension of the bear rally but pulled back in the midmorning to early afternoon, touching the session’s low of 27,664.57 basis points from a high of 27,851.37bps. This was a key resistance before the index retraced up marginally to close negative at 27,691.85bps.
Market technicals for the day were negative and mixed as volume traded was lower than the previous day’s, in the midst of negative breadth and selling pressure, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing ‘sell’ volume at 85% and a ‘buy’ position of 15% on total daily transaction volume index of 0.74.

The momentum behind the day’s performance remained weak and flat as Money Flow Index read 36.15 points, up from the previous session’s 36.12bps, an indication that funds left some stocks without new positioning. This was just as buying interest slowed down ahead of data such as the Q2 GDP report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expected to confirm the state of the economy.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of Monday’s trading, the NSEASI shed 108.30bps, closing at 27,691.85 bps, after opening at 27,800.17bps, representing a 0.39% decline, just as market capitalization lost N52.41bn to close at N13.39tr, from an opening value of N13.52tr, representing 0.39% loss.
Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right during this post Q2 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.

The day’s downturn resulted from profit-taking and selloffs in stocks like Seplat, Forte Oil, Julius Berger, Oando, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, International Brewery, CCNN, UACN, Access Bank, and NB, among others. These lose impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, raising it to 11.73%, just as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.73tr or 15.43% from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bearish Sector Indices
All sectoral performance indexes closed lower, with NSE Oil/Gas index leading the decliners, after shedding 6.78%. It was followed by the Industrial Goods index with 0.99%, while Insurance, Consumer Goods and Banking indices lost 0.66%, 0.39% and 0.23% respectively.
Market breadth turned negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 20:19; just as market traded volume and value fell by 53.40% and 42.11% respectively to 158.27m shares worth N2.32bn, from the previous day’s 335.61m units valued at N3.52bn. Volume for the day was driven by trades in financial services and conglomerate stocks like Transcorp Plc, Zenith Bank, UBA, FBNH and Guaranty Trust Bank.
Sovereign Trust Insurance and ABC Transport were the best performing stocks, after gaining 10% each, to close at N0.22 and N0.33 per share on market forces. On the flip side, Forte Oil and Seplat lost 10% each to close at N14.40 and N441 on profit-taking and selloffs.

Market Outlook
We expect a mixed performance to continue in the midst of profit-taking at a time of prevailing low liquidity, oscillating oil price, even as Investdata sees the likelihood of a slowdown in the Nigeria’s expected Q2 GDP data. Speculators are nevertheless taking advantage of the seeming improvement in some other economic indices released recently, as well as corporate earnings showing the true position of Nigeria’s listed companies.
Also, long-term investors are reshuffling their portfolios in anticipation of interim earnings reports of dividend-paying companies.
The NSE’s rebound is yet to be confirmed, despite the positive outing last Wednesday which coincided with the swearing-in of the cabinet ministers as investors expect a more speculative move by market players taking a new position, especially the stocks that are selling at a huge discount to book value.

Discerning investors should target value stocks considering the current low valuation as they position for dividend income and capital gains, especially as the market’s Price to Earnings ratio remains attractive at 5.45x, which is well below the 8.24x average of its peers and its 9.56x five-year average. The current situation has revealed the existence of value and the high upside potentials for a rally. But then, wait to confirm reversal before jumping into a new position.

Investors should also take into consideration the expected economic reforms as President Buhari has assigned portfolio to the ministers. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had earlier rolled out plans to boost productivity and investment by instructing the banks to lend more to the private sector. This is aimed at reducing banks’ participation in government securities and lending more to the private sector to drive economic growth.
There is also the likely impact of portfolio repositioning for the last quarter of the year ahead of Q3 financials in the midst of analyzing Q2 numbers and unfolding political events.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/08/investors-await-confirmation-of-failed-rebound-on-ngse-q2-gdp-data-for-next-move/#more

Aftermath Of Failed Rally: Mixed Performance Ahead, Amidst Profit-taking, Low Liquidity

Market Update for August 27
Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) remained bearish for the second consecutive day after a failed attempt at the rebound. Tuesday’s was yet another very volatile and mixed session that confirmed the failed bear rally as the key performance index, the NSE All-Share could not follow through on the fourth day, just as the intraday low has been undercut on an increased volume of trade.
Given that effect of the seemingly positive news of a new cabinet has been halted at the beginning of the week, investors are looking to the release of Nigeria’s Q2 GDP, a major macroeconomic data, sometime next week. The GDP data will, nonetheless, confirm what the nation’s stock market has been signaling- that all may not be well with the economy after all. Also, the month of August is gradually drawing to a close, just as fixed-income yields are on the rise, due to foreign investors offloading their positions, leading to the ongoing price drops in the fixed income market.

Many investors are treading cautiously at this time, given what they see in many developed economies, going by the slow growth seen in their recently released GDP data which is confirming the gloomy picture of the global economy. Recall that the Nigerian economy has been struggling long before now.
It true that the current market situation has created huge opportunities for discerning investors and traders that are thinking medium and long term, ahead of the Q3 earnings session in October, which takes the market into its last quarter for the year, as they reposition their portfolios. Often times, what differentiates successful trader from others is remaining the ability to stay objective, while keeping to time-tested trading/investing rules instead of trading your profit and loss.

Fortunately, you don’t have to invest or trade alone, get the tools, education, information and experts opinion.
Meanwhile, the NSEASI opened for Tuesday’s trading on a gapped down which lasted till mid-afternoon on continued selloffs in high cap stocks, especially in the oil/gas sector that dragged the index to touch intraday lows of 27,475.64 basis points from a high of 27,691.83bps. It then retraced up to finish the day at 27,602.64bps, lower than its opening figure of 27,691.83bps.
Tuesday’s market technicals were negative and mixed, recording a higher traded volume than the previous day’s, as market breadth favoured the bears. Market sentiment was mixed as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing ‘buy’ volume at 59% and a ‘sell’ position of 41% on total daily transaction volume index of 0.85.

The energy behind the day’s performance remained weak, despite inching up as Money Flow Index read 37.23 points, from the previous session’s 36.15bps, an indication that funds entered some stocks like MTNN and Zenith, reducing the day’s losing momentum. This was just as buying interest for dividend-paying stocks increased, even as stocks like Seplat Petroleum, Total Nigeria, International Brewery, Livestock Feeds, University Press and others hit a new 52-week low. It may be interesting to know why Seplat has suffered 10% fall each in two consecutive days.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of trading, the composite NSEASI lost 89.08bps, closing at 27,602.64bps, after opening at 27,691.85bps, representing a 0.32% drop, just as market capitalization closed N43.34bn lower at N13.43tr, from an opening value of N13.49tr, representing 0.32% depreciation.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.

The session’s downturn was due to selloffs and profit booking in stocks like Dangote Cement, Guaranty Trust Bank, Seplat, Total Nigeria, UACN, FBNH, UBA, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated and International Brewery, among others. These declines impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, increasing it to 12.18%, just as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.71tr or 15.02% from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bearish Sector Indices
All sectoral performance indices closed in red on Tuesday, except for the NSE Insurance index that notched 0.08%. The NSE Oil/Gas index led the decliners, after losing 5.80%, followed by the Banking index’s 1.64% slide, while Industrial Goods followed, shedding 0.99%. The Consumer Goods index stayed flat.
Market breadth remained negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 23:13; but market activities in volume and value traded were up by 15.31% and 94.11% respectively at 183.65m shares worth N4.50 billion, from the previous day’s 158.27m units valued at N2.32bn. The day’s volume was driven by trades in Transcorp Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank, Access Bank, MTNN and FBNH.

The best-performing stocks for the session were PZ and Courtville Business Solution, which gained 5.93% and 5% respectively to close at N6.25 and N0.21 per share on the expectation of their Q4 numbers and market forces. On the flip side, Seplat and Neimeth lost 9.82% and 9.62% respectively to close at N397.70 and N0.47 on selloffs also on the back of market forces.

Market Outlook
This mixed performance will continue in the midst of profit-taking at a time of prevailing low liquidity, oscillating oil price, even as Investdata sees the likelihood of a slowdown in Nigeria’s expected Q2 GDP data. Also speculation ahead of month-end window dressing, taking advantage of the seeming improvement in some other economic indices released recently, as well as corporate earnings showing the true position of Nigeria’s listed companies.
Meanwhile, long-term investors are reshuffling their portfolios in anticipation of interim earnings reports of dividend-paying companies.

Discerning investors should target value stocks considering the current low valuation as they position for dividend income and capital gains, especially as the market’s Price to Earnings ratio remains attractive at 5.45x, which is well below the 8.24x average of its peers and its 9.56x five-year average. The current situation has revealed the existence of value and the high upside potentials for a rally. But then, wait to confirm reversal before jumping into a new position.

Investors should also take into consideration the expected economic reforms as President Buhari has assigned portfolio to the ministers. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had earlier rolled out plans to boost productivity and investment by instructing the banks to lend more to the private sector. This is aimed at reducing banks’ participation in government securities and lending more to the private sector to drive economic growth.
There is also the likely impact of portfolio repositioning for the last quarter of the year ahead of Q3 financials in the midst of analyzing Q2 numbers and unfolding political events.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/08/aftermath-of-failed-rally-mixed-performance-ahead-amidst-profit-taking-low-liquidity/#more

CBN Rebuffs Protests, Begins Implementation Of Ban On FX Sale To Milk Importers


Reuters on Tuesday reported that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has begun implementation of its ban on the sale of foreign exchange to importers of milk through its official window, apparently brushing aside protests from a section of the organized private sector opposed to the decision which was announced last month.
According to the report, CBN directed banks to stop processing milk imports on a credit basis, quoting bank sources, in its bid to spur local production and save the country’s scarce foreign exchange.

The CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, had while briefing reporters after the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), announced plans to add milk import to its list of items that cannot be imported using forex access through the official window. He had lamented that Nigeria spends between $1.2bn and $1.5bn annually to import milk.

In a circular to banks in the country, the apex bank said milk imports will no longer be eligible under payment terms known as “bills for collection” which allowed the importer to buy on credit. Importers would need to fund their naira accounts and open letters of credit, bankers told Reuters.
Bankers said the central bank wanted to streamline payment modes for milk imports.
Industry groups had been lobbying the government against the bank’s planned dollar curb, arguing that domestic milk production was not enough to meet local demand.
In 2015, the CBN had restricted access to forex for 41 items which it said can be produced in Nigeria.
The central bank has said the idea to add milk to the forex restriction list arose from the success of the currency restriction policy and the large amount spent on imports.

Implementation of the ban is coming at a time Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserve pool has dropped by $1bn in one month, from $45.043bn on July 23, to $44.0bn in the corresponding period of this month.
This is the first time in a long while that the nation’s reserve has suffered such a huge decline.
According to data on the website of the CBN on August 27, 201, the Nigerian reserve is currently around its March 25 level of $44.04bn.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/08/cbn-rebuffs-protests-begins-implementation-of-ban-on-fx-sale-to-milk-importers/#more

Mixed Outlook On NGSE, Amidst Prevailing Low Liquidity, Month-end Window Dressing

Market Update for August 28
Stocks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange at the midweek struggled to recover ahead of month-end window dressing, as the nation’s economic situation and waning investor confidence continue to reflect by way of persistent profit-taking, just as the recent attempt at a rebound is weighing on buying interest.

Investors have their gaze fixed on the expected economic policies to be churched out by the new Federal Executive Council, implementation of the 2019 budget and the all-important Q2 GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for direction, as the month of August comes gradually to an end.

The session’s mixed sentiment supported the benchmark NSE All-Share index as it closed marginally positive on the strength of increasing demand for shares of telecommunication giants- MTN Nigeria, as well as stocks in the industrial, insurance and oil/gas sectors. Despite the continued profit-taking in the banking and consumer goods stocks, the prevailing low traded volume and liquidity are signs of indecision among traders and investors who have, before now, adopted wait-and-see.

A mixed half-year earnings report was presented to the market by Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc, showing a 15% drop in net profit, despite which the directors offered to pay N1.00 interim dividend per share. The boards of Nigerian Enamelware Plc and Greif Nigeria Plc presented their first and third quarter reports respectively, which were also unimpressive and in red, reflecting the state of the economy, while following the trend of reports released by other companies earlier.
Also, ETI informed the investing public that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) is divesting its 14.1% stake to Arise B.V (READ MORE), just as Forte Oil received a mandatory takeover offer from Ignite Investments and Commodities Limited to purchase 500,000 units at N66.25 per share. All these are expected to influence the market and share prices of these companies as trading opens Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, trading at midweek oscillated as the composite index opened on a slight upside and pulled back by the midday to afternoon, touching intraday low of 27,546.34 basis points, from a high of 27,626.37bps. It thereafter rebounded to close the day marginally above its opening figure at 27,607.02bps on a mixed sentiment.
Market technicals for the day were positive and weak, as volume traded was lower than the previous day’s, in the midst of flat market breadth and strong buying pressure, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing ‘buy’ volume at 76% and a ‘sell’ position of 24% on total daily transaction volume index of 0.61.

The momentum behind the day’s performance remained weak, despite moving up as Money Flow Index read 41.72 points, from the previous session’s 37.23bps, an indication that funds entered some stocks and the market as buying interest for dividend-paying stocks increased.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of Wednesday trading, the All-Share Index gained a marginal 4.25bps, closing at 27,607.02bps, having opened at 27,602.64bps, representing a 0.02% up, just as market capitalization was up by N2.05bn to N13.43tr from an opening value of N13.43tr, which represented 0.02% value gain.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.

The day’s upturn resulted from bargain hunting in stocks like Dangote Cement, MTNN, Lafarge Africa, CCNN, Oando, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, and Forte Oil, among others. These had a marginally positive impact on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, as it stayed at 12.16%, just as YTD market capitalization gain inched to N1.71tr or 15.04% from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Mixed Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bullish, except for the NSE Banking and Consumer goods index that closed lower by 1.34% and 0.105 respectively. The NSE Insurance index led the advancers, gaining 2.25%, followed by the Industrial Goods index’s 1.0% and 0.36% in the Oil/Gas index.

Market breadth was flat as decliners were equal in number to advancers in the ratio of 13:13; but market activities in volume and value traded dropped by 29.01% and 33.22% respectively at 130.37m shares worth N3.01bn, from the previous day’s 183.65m units valued at N4.50. The day’s volume was driven by trades in Transcorp Plc, MTNN, Zenith Bank, Nestle and Guaranty Trust Bank,

John Holt and Cornerstone Insurance were the best-performing stocks for the day after gaining 10% each to close at N0.55 and N0.22 per share on market forces. On the flip side, Honeywell Flour and PZ lost 7.41% and 5.60% respectively to close at N1.00and N5.90 on profit-taking and market forces.

Market Outlook
We expect the mixed performance to continue in the midst of profit-taking at a time of prevailing low liquidity, oscillating oil price, even as Investdata sees the likelihood of a slowdown in Nigeria’s expected Q2 GDP data. Also speculation ahead of month-end window dressing, taking advantage of the seeming improvement in some other economic indices released recently, as well as corporate earnings showing the true position of Nigeria’s listed companies.
Meanwhile, long-term investors are reshuffling their portfolios in anticipation of interim earnings reports of dividend-paying companies.

Discerning investors should target value stocks considering the current low valuation as they position for dividend income and capital gains, especially as the market’s Price to Earnings ratio remains attractive at 5.45x, which is well below the 8.24x average of its peers and its 9.56x five-year average. The current situation has revealed the existence of value and the high upside potentials for a rally. But then, wait to confirm reversal before jumping into a new position.

Investors should also take into consideration the expected economic reforms as President Buhari has assigned portfolio to the ministers. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had earlier rolled out plans to boost productivity and investment by instructing the banks to lend more to the private sector. This is aimed at reducing banks’ participation in government securities and lending more to the private sector to drive economic growth.
There is also the likely impact of portfolio repositioning for the last quarter of the year ahead of Q3 financials in the midst of analyzing Q2 numbers and unfolding political events.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/08/mixed-outlook-on-ngse-amidst-prevailing-low-liquidity-month-end-window-dressing/#mor

Aftermath Of Failed Rally: Mixed Performance Ahead, Amidst Profit-taking, Low Liquidity

Market Update for August 27
Trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) remained bearish for the second consecutive day after a failed attempt at the rebound. Tuesday’s was yet another very volatile and mixed session that confirmed the failed bear rally as the key performance index, the NSE All-Share could not follow through on the fourth day, just as the intraday low has been undercut on an increased volume of trade.

Given that effect of the seemingly positive news of a new cabinet has been halted at the beginning of the week, investors are looking to the release of Nigeria’s Q2 GDP, a major macroeconomic data, sometime next week. The GDP data will, nonetheless, confirm what the nation’s stock market has been signaling- that all may not be well with the economy after all. Also, the month of August is gradually drawing to a close, just as fixed-income yields are on the rise, due to foreign investors offloading their positions, leading to the ongoing price drops in the fixed income market.

Many investors are treading cautiously at this time, given what they see in many developed economies, going by the slow growth seen in their recently released GDP data which is confirming the gloomy picture of the global economy. Recall that the Nigerian economy has been struggling long before now.
It true that the current market situation has created huge opportunities for discerning investors and traders that are thinking medium and long term, ahead of the Q3 earnings session in October, which takes the market into its last quarter for the year, as they reposition their portfolios. Often times, what differentiates successful trader from others is remaining the ability to stay objective, while keeping to time-tested trading/investing rules instead of trading your profit and loss.

Fortunately, you don’t have to invest or trade alone, get the tools, education, information and experts opinion.
Meanwhile, the NSEASI opened for Tuesday’s trading on a gapped down which lasted till mid-afternoon on continued selloffs in high cap stocks, especially in the oil/gas sector that dragged the index to touch intraday lows of 27,475.64 basis points from a high of 27,691.83bps. It then retraced up to finish the day at 27,602.64bps, lower than its opening figure of 27,691.83bps.
Tuesday’s market technicals were negative and mixed, recording a higher traded volume than the previous day’s, as market breadth favoured the bears. Market sentiment was mixed as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing ‘buy’ volume at 59% and a ‘sell’ position of 41% on total daily transaction volume index of 0.85.

The energy behind the day’s performance remained weak, despite inching up as Money Flow Index read 37.23 points, from the previous session’s 36.15bps, an indication that funds entered some stocks like MTNN and Zenith, reducing the day’s losing momentum. This was just as buying interest for dividend-paying stocks increased, even as stocks like Seplat Petroleum, Total Nigeria, International Brewery, Livestock Feeds, University Press and others hit a new 52-week low. It may be interesting to know why Seplat has suffered 10% fall each in two consecutive days.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of trading, the composite NSEASI lost 89.08bps, closing at 27,602.64bps, after opening at 27,691.85bps, representing a 0.32% drop, just as market capitalization closed N43.34bn lower at N13.43tr, from an opening value of N13.49tr, representing 0.32% depreciation.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.

The session’s downturn was due to selloffs and profit booking in stocks like Dangote Cement, Guaranty Trust Bank, Seplat, Total Nigeria, UACN, FBNH, UBA, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated and International Brewery, among others. These declines impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, increasing it to 12.18%, just as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.71tr or 15.02% from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bearish Sector Indices
All sectoral performance indices closed in red on Tuesday, except for the NSE Insurance index that notched 0.08%. The NSE Oil/Gas index led the decliners, after losing 5.80%, followed by the Banking index’s 1.64% slide, while Industrial Goods followed, shedding 0.99%. The Consumer Goods index stayed flat.

Market breadth remained negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 23:13; but market activities in volume and value traded were up by 15.31% and 94.11% respectively at 183.65m shares worth N4.50 billion, from the previous day’s 158.27m units valued at N2.32bn. The day’s volume was driven by trades in Transcorp Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank, Access Bank, MTNN and FBNH.

The best-performing stocks for the session were PZ and Courtville Business Solution, which gained 5.93% and 5% respectively to close at N6.25 and N0.21 per share on the expectation of their Q4 numbers and market forces. On the flip side, Seplat and Neimeth lost 9.82% and 9.62% respectively to close at N397.70 and N0.47 on selloffs also on the back of market forces.

Market Outlook
This mixed performance will continue in the midst of profit-taking at a time of prevailing low liquidity, oscillating oil price, even as Investdata sees the likelihood of a slowdown in Nigeria’s expected Q2 GDP data. Also speculation ahead of month-end window dressing, taking advantage of the seeming improvement in some other economic indices released recently, as well as corporate earnings showing the true position of Nigeria’s listed companies.
Meanwhile, long-term investors are reshuffling their portfolios in anticipation of interim earnings reports of dividend-paying companies.

Discerning investors should target value stocks considering the current low valuation as they position for dividend income and capital gains, especially as the market’s Price to Earnings ratio remains attractive at 5.45x, which is well below the 8.24x average of its peers and its 9.56x five-year average. The current situation has revealed the existence of value and the high upside potentials for a rally. But then, wait to confirm reversal before jumping into a new position.

Investors should also take into consideration the expected economic reforms as President Buhari has assigned portfolio to the ministers. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had earlier rolled out plans to boost productivity and investment by instructing the banks to lend more to the private sector. This is aimed at reducing banks’ participation in government securities and lending more to the private sector to drive economic growth.
There is also the likely impact of portfolio repositioning for the last quarter of the year ahead of Q3 financials in the midst of analyzing Q2 numbers and unfolding political events.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/08/aftermath-of-failed-rally-mixed-performance-ahead-amidst-profit-taking-low-liquidity/#more

MARKET UPDATE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 23 AUGUST, 2019

Dear Investors and Traders,

Ambrose Here Again,

Welcome to this amazing part
of Market the Weekly Video
Update precisely August 23rd.

A lot really happened last
the week so in the video, you will discover;

1. A general overview of the
The market as at last week
2. Reasons why there was an increase in the share index.
3. Which position should
traders and investors take?
4. Why market reversal is
eminent?
5. . What members of the
Buying and Selling Signal have benefited?
6. Which type of stock you
should invest now.?
7. Others topics

For further information
on WHAT NEXT, call now
08028164085, 0803205546

Dedicated to Your Financial
Success,
Ambrose Omordion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnN-5fcK3bQ

#valueinvesting #stocktrading #stocks #stockexchange #financialmarkets #currency #financeandeconomy #nigeria #centralbank #stockmarket #trading

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Investdata Monthly Sentiment Report as of 2 September 2019

NSEASI buy 69% sell 31% MFI 24.31
Abc buy 67% sell 33% volume index 1.09 MFI 64.87
Access buy 78% sell 22% volume index 0.76 MFI 24.48
Afrprud buy � MFI 45.14
Aglev buy 14% sell 86% MFI 31.44
Aiico buy 44% sell 56% MFI 55.47
Berger buy � MFI 18.70
Beta buy 0% MFI 73.63
Cadbury buy 13% sell 87% MFI 61.38
Cap buy � MFI 58.11
Caverton buy 2% sell 98% volume index 0.98 MFI 58.30
Ccnn buy � MFI 24.16
Chams buy 67% sell 33% volume index 1.07 MFI 90.16
CIleasing buy � MFI 54.22
Conoil buy 6% sell 94% volume index 0.84 MFI 14.67
Continsure buy 29% sell 71% MFI 50.40
Custodian buy 81% sell 19% MFI 59.24
Cutix buy 58% sell 42% volume index 0.80 MFI 54.18
Dangcem buy 9% sell 91% volume index 0.95 MFI 29.90
Dangflour buy 97% sell 3% volume index 1.23 MFI 83.26
Dangsugar buy 23% sell 77% MFI 15.31
Eterna buy 75% sell 25% volume index 1.09 MFI 21.38
Eti buy 63% sell 37% volume index 2.07 MFI 5.00
Fbnh buy 17% sell 83% volume index 0.72 MFI 31.03
Fcmb buy 39% sell 61% MFI 31.21
Fidelity buy 93% sell 7% MFI 44.92
Fmn buy 32% sell 68% volume index 0.97 MFI 12.73
Fo buy 40% sell 60% volume index 1.71 MFI 36.16
Glaxo buy 0% MFI 14.52
GT buy 57% sell 43% volume index 1.34 MFI 36.48
Honyflour buy 50% sell 50% MFI 24.17
Jaiz buy 60% sell 40% MFI 34.82
Japaul buy 0% MFI 64.91
JBerger buy 0% MFI 42.57
Lasaco buy 25% sell 75% MFI 30.95
Lawunion buy 43% sell 57% MFI 45.21
Learn buy 88% sell 12% MFI 53.04
Linkass buy 0% MFI 20.49
Lvstk buy 40% sell 60% MFI 14.29
Mansard buy 71% sell 29% MFI 35.18
M&B buy 39% sell 61% MFI 68.82
Mben buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.75 MFI 25.40
Nahco buy 48% sell 52% MFI 23.01
Nascon buy 33% sell 67% MFI 41.48
Neimeth buy 58% sell 42% volume index 1.64 MFI 28.40
Nem buy 0% MFI 86.06
Nestle buy 88% sell 12% volume index 0.81 MFI 40.59
Npf buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.79 MFI 35.39
Oando buy 79% sell 21% MFI 13.72
Okomu buy 11% sell 89% volume index 1.15 MFI 28.05
Pz buy 44% sell 56% MFI 32.39
Red buy 0% MFI 32.05
Seplat buy 0% MFI 35.15
Sovereins buy 0% MFI 62.42
Stanbic buy 96% sell 4% MFI 29.92
Sterling buy � volume index 1.08 MFI 80.29
Total buy 19% sell 81% MFI 35.92
Transcorp buy 68% sell 32% volume index 0.76 MFI 44.10
Uacp buy 0% volume index 1.65 MFI 45.32
Uacn buy 38% sell 62% volume index 1.16 MFI 3.25
Uba buy 64% sell 36% MFI 26.66
Ubn buy 67% sell 33% MFI 83.79
Ucap buy 62% sell 38% MFI 24.07
Unilever buy 30% sell 70% MFI 27.52
Uniondac buy 50% sell 50% MFI 80.93
Unity buy 71% sell 29% MFI 44.85
Wapco buy 38% sell 62% volume index 4.00 MFI 57.54
Wapic buy 67% sell 33% MFI 31.75
Wema buy 63% sell 37% MFI 8.49
Zenith buy 35% sell 65% volume index 0.74 MFI 29.09

https://investdataltd..com/2019/09/investdata-monthly-sentiment-report-as.html?m=1

UBA Plc 2019H1: Impressive Investment, Efficiency Ratios, Trading At Huge Discount

On Friday, August 30, 2019, United Bank for Africa Plc presented its audited results for the half-year ended June 30, 2019, in line with its post-listing requirement, just one day after that of 2018.

The high asset quality and risk management framework were evident in the decline in loan loss provision and increasing earnings power, which was driven by income from investment, foreign exchange. This was in addition to fee income from electronic and internet banking within the period under consideration.

The group sustained growth and profit across all its operational bases, an assurance of value creation and delivery to all stakeholders.
In real terms, the bank’s result is impressive when compared to that of the corresponding period, with gross earnings at N293.7bn, up by 14% from N257.9bn in 2018, while profit climbed 29.45% up to N56.7bn, as against N43.8bn in the previous year.

The reduction in an Impairment charge on financial assets for the period to N3.12bn, from N6.73bn in 2018, fees income N52.34bn, compared to N45.85bn in 2018; while trading/foreign exchange revenue of N32.75bn from N20.46bn in 2018;
Should this up-trend be sustained in the subsequent quarters of the year, it would support the share price rebound and raise hope for higher dividend payout despite the market trend driven low price.

The bank’s Dividend Yield remained the best among others that recently declared an interim dividend, for a company whose shares are currently trading at N5.85 each, which translates to over 170% below Book Value of N15.86 per share, which revealed the undervalued state of UBA’s share, as well as its upside potential.
The bank’s Price to Earnings ratio is 0.88x, while investors’ waiting period has dropped significantly from 1.57x as a result of growth in its earnings power and general down market condition.

Notwithstanding, the weak economy and risk exposure, with all sectors of the system struggling due to the harsh economic environment in which companies operate, the Non-Performing Loan ratio dropped to 5.62% from 6.45% position as at the full year 2018.
It is noteworthy that at 48.04%, as of half-year, UBA Plc is yet to meet the minimum 60% Loan to Deposit ratio prescribed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) beginning from the end of September 2019.

The bank’s dexterity in navigating its balance sheet towards areas of opportunities was also revealed within the review period, even as its Capital Adequacy Ratio climbed to 28%, from 23.6% in December 2018.


Despite the marginal growth in Net Interest Income as reported by the bank, its profitability, investment and efficiency ratios remained impressive, a reason for which investors should look the way of the bank’s stock for their different investment purposes. Profit before and after-tax margin climbed to 37.31%, and 19.32% respectively from 2018 position of 24.36% and 16.98%. Return on equity and asset stood at 10.46% and 1.11% respectively. As shown in the table above

Technical View

The bank’s price action has followed the general market direction, despite serious attempts at a rebound which failed as a result of prolonged bearish sentiment prevailing in the market and economy. The downtrend has been for almost two years as UBA’s stock continues, following which it made lower lows, despite the positive financials before recently forming a descending triangle.

This chart pattern indicates a continuation or reversal of the trend. The strong support level of the bank in its pullback movement is N5.00 per share. The likelihood of a breakout from the triangle is high considering the Q2 earnings and mixed sentiment.
Looking at the 3.42% yield and the low market value, traders and Investors should look the way of UBA for the breakout of the first resistance at N6.40 and the second resistant at N7.80 or reversal to first support level at N4.86 and second support price of N4.60. The momentum of the trend is weak at 29.36points despite its above 20 ADX.

Forecasts
The bank’s full-year 2019 gross earnings forecast is N538.29bn, representing a 14% improvement relative to FY 2018, while net income of N100.17bn is estimated for the period, which translates to a 27.44% improvement on the 2018FY. This yields an EPS of N3.18 and a forward P/E of 1.84X.

The prevailing low prices of stocks in the banking sector and the nature of UBA’s services ensure that the industry has remained attractive to domestic and foreign investors as volume traded remained relatively high for traders. We expect less loan loss provisions even as the bank works on complying with the CBN 60% Loan to Deposit Ratio, if the real sector experiences recovery in the last quarter of the year, due to the festive season. It is believed that the government will hit the ground running now that portfolios have been assigned to the Ministers.

Analysts Opinion/Recommendations
UBA’s shares are undervalued, considering the projection for 2019 financial year-end. The stock is currently trading at a 201% discount to our Fair Value estimate of N18.00.
We are still skeptical as a result of the unfriendly business environment in Nigeria, especially with the rate cut and insecurity across the entire northern Nigerian stretch, coupled with the delay in implementation 2019 budget.

We note the impressive and steady rise in the bank’s Book Value position over the last years and the short waiting period for as revealed by Price to Earnings ratio. However, the group’s management must be proactive with its Return on Equity (ROE) growth. We, therefore, retain our BUY recommendation on UBA share.

Robust Balance Sheet, Supporting Growth And Profitability
The bank’s ability to strengthen its retail and investment banking business segments will further enhance earnings, profit and enable the board to reward investors handsomely at the full year. The ongoing deposit drive and proactive balance sheet deployment will deliver positive results as expected, going into the future. The group’s management was very effective, with the cost of risk at 0.60%, ensuring that the backlash of some regulatory policy changes was moderated. The relative stability in local currency is an incentive for UBA Plc to sustain offshore earnings through its operating network and in the process support bottom-line growth.

Four-Year Performance (2015-2018)
The bank has been resilient as mentioned earlier, despite the tight economic conditions, especially since the crash in oil prices and the resultant pressure on disposable income. This may have been the major restraining factor against the creation of risk assets during the review period.

Gross earnings over the four-year period grew by 47.98% to N456.9bn from N314.83bn in 2015. The profitability level for this period was stable, despite different regulatory rules and huge provisions. The bottom line for the same period was up by 31.76% from N59.65bn in 2015 to N78.6bn as shown in the table below.
Efficiency for the period declined before the recent reversal, as shown by the Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.98%, 16.13%, 14.68% and 15.64% for 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. Profit margin (PM) experienced a downward swing during the same period to 16.87%, from 18.95% year-on-year remaining above the 15% international standard. Management also grew shareholders funds for the period by 51.11% to N502.6bn, from N332.62bn in 2015.


Robust Balance Sheet, Supporting Growth And Profitability
The bank’s ability to strengthen its retail and investment banking business segments will further enhance earnings, profit and enable the board to reward investors handsomely at the full year. The ongoing deposit drive and proactive balance sheet deployment will deliver positive results as expected, going into the future. The group’s management was very effective, with the cost of risk at 0.60%, ensuring that the backlash of some regulatory policy changes was moderated. The relative stability in local currency is an incentive for UBA Plc to sustain offshore earnings through its operating network and in the process support bottom-line growth.

Four-Year Performance (2015-2018)
The bank has been resilient as mentioned earlier, despite the tight economic conditions, especially since the crash in oil prices and the resultant pressure on disposable income. This may have been the major restraining factor against the creation of risk assets during the review period.

Gross earnings over the four-year period grew by 47.98% to N456.9bn from N314.83bn in 2015. The profitability level for this period was stable, despite different regulatory rules and huge provisions. The bottom line for the same period was up by 31.76% from N59.65bn in 2015 to N78.6bn as shown in the table below.

Efficiency for the period declined before the recent reversal, as shown by the Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.98%, 16.13%, 14.68% and 15.64% for 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. Profit margin (PM) experienced a downward swing during the same period to 16.87%, from 18.95% year-on-year remaining above the 15% international standard. Management also grew shareholders funds for the period by 51.11% to N502.6bn, from N332.62bn in 2015.


Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467


https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/uba-plc-2019h1-impressive-investment-efficiency-ratios-trading-at-huge-discount/

Explanations of Investdata Sentiment Report:

Buy and Sell Percentage: show the percentage of both buy and sell activities on a particular stock in a day, week or month as the case may be. A stock is good to look at when its buying level is 80 - 100

Volume index: shows the volume of units traded on a particular stock in a day, week or month as the case may be but for a volume index to be of note, it should be reading at and above 0.70.

MFI: shows the amount of fund that is entering or leaving the stock. When MFI is increasing it shows money is entering the stock and when it is decreasing it shows money is leaving the stock. Its range is between 0.00 - 100.00.

Pip, lot, resistance and support are technical analysis terms used in trading securities, currency, commodities, fixed income instrument like treasury bill and bonds. Also stock. Pip is use to calculate value when trading currency. Lot is the standard amount traded, the number of units buy or sell. The average pip size for standard lots is $10, $100, per pip.

The resistance and support levels are called trade value area because, the resistance is the level the securities price touches most times and pullback while support is the level price action touches and retrace up or bounce back. Follow us for more details in our technical analysis home study pack for novice traders

NGSE Stays Bearish, Selloff Persists, As Economic Indicators Continue To Underperform


Market Update for September 5
The bearish sentiment on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) extended its stance on Thursday with the composite All-Share index and key sectorial indices sliding further on the back of selling pressure and seeming profit-taking. This is clearly shown in market technicals such as low traded volume and the 100% negative sentiment, although the trading session was mixed.

It was a second consecutive session of pullbacks, which has left the benchmark index trading below its 20-Day Moving Average, signaling the continuation of a confidence crisis in the midst of low liquidity. The situation is being further worsened with the call by Adams Oshiomhole, chairman of Nigeria’s ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) for the nationalization of South African businesses in view of the Xenophobia attacks on Nigerians in that country. Known South African company franchises in Nigeria include MTN Nigeria, the biggest telecommunications company by the number of subscribers and most capitalized stock on the NSE; Stanbic IBTC Holdings, a financial services powerhouse; MNET/Supersport, operators of DSTV; ShopRite; and YES; among others.

Such a statement will be taken seriously by foreign investors, who remain the dominant force in a market where domestic participation has remained abysmally low, despite promise to grow the numbers by the management of the NSE and the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). We would not forget in a hurry that these foreign investors have remained cautious about investing in Nigeria, especially since after the outcome of the 2019 Presidential election that returned President Muhammadu Buhari to the saddle for another four-year term.

The state of the economy was further confirmed by the capital inflow report released also on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), showing that a total of $5.82bn was imported into the country in 2019Q2, compared to $8.48bn in the previous quarter. This represented 31.4% drop quarter-on-quarter (READ MORE) and was another reason the nation’s GDP as a measure of economic activities recorded yet another slowdown (READ MORE).

Conjecturing reasons for the slowdown in such numbers may not take so much effort, given the poor implementation of Nigeria’s 2019 budget, just like the year before it (READ MORE), which the government has seemingly admitted to by announcing plans to roll 60% of this year’s budget over to that of 2020. Plans are afoot already to submit next year’s budget to the National Assembly before the end of this month, with the hope that its passage will not be overwhelmed by political expediencies as in the past budget. We must, however, note that the style of budget implementation and disbursement since 2015, when the then newly inaugurated government announced plans for zero budgeting, which was later abandoned, has kept the economy in this unfriendly situation. A change coming from this new cabinet will give Nigerians the much-needed hope.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s trading opened slightly on the downside, a situation that lasted till midday on low activities, even as trading was dull due to indecision among market players. There was a further pullback by afternoon, especially in the last few minutes, which forced the market to close lower at 27,252.09 basis points, which was not, however, the day’s lowest, as the NSEASI hit an intraday low of 27,252.09bps, from a high of 27,319.64bps.

Market technicals were negative and mixed, as volume traded came lower than previous day’s in the midst of negative market breadth and high selling pressure, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report. ‘Sell’ volume for the day was 100%, while the ‘buy’ position stood at 0% on total daily transaction volume index of 0.65.
The forces behind the day’s performance were weak, but Money Flow Index rose, reading 49.97 points, up from the previous session’s 47.98bps, an indication that funds entered some stocks despite selloffs. It may be suggesting that there is a markup, however, wait to confirm as the market opens on Friday.

Index and Market Cap
The benchmark index, at the close of the day trading, shed 67.65bps, closing at 27,252.09bps, after opening at 27,319.64bps, representing a 0.25% decline. Similarly, market capitalization lost N32.86bn, closing at N13.26tr, from an opening value of N13.29 trillion, which also represented 0.25% value loss.

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The day’s decline resulted from selloffs and profit booking in MTN Nigeria, Zenith Bank, FBN Holdings, UBA, Access Bank, Dangote Sugar, Lafarge Africa, and Honeywell, among others. The loss impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, as it climbed to 13.29%, just as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.32tr or 13.02%, from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bearish Sector Indices
All the sectoral performance indexes were in red, except for the NSE Oil/Gas Index that closed marginally in green with 0.08%, while the Industrial Goods index led the decliners, after shedding 0.67%, followed by Banking index which slipped 0.18% down.
Market breadth remained negative as decliners outpaced advancers in the ratio of 17:13; while market activity in volume and value traded fell by 46.76% and 24.76%, respectively at 133.34m shares worth N2.4bn, from the previous day’s 250.45m units valued at N3.19bn. Transactions were driven by trades in stocks such as GTBank, FBNH, Guinness Nigeria, Zenith Bank, and Transcorp Plc.

Expectedly, the best-performing stocks for the day were UACN and UACN Property which topped the gainers’ chart with 10% each to close at N5.50 and N0.99 per share on the back of their low price attractions and the proposed restructuring/divestment. On the flip side, Ikeja Hotel and Honeywell lost 9.30% and 7.07% respectively, closing at N1.17 and N0.92 on market forces and profit-booking.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/ngse-stays-bearish-selloff-persists-as-economic-indicators-continue-to-underperform/#more

Access Bank Profit Up 59% At N63bn, On Impairment Charge Drop, Despite Rising Costs, Offers N0.25 Dividend

Finally, directors of Access Bank Plc, on Friday presented its audited half-year report indicating that profit before and after-tax rose faster than gross earnings, on robust growth in interest income; fee and commission income; as loan loss provision dropped by 33.52%; other operating income; and a significant drop in net foreign exchange loss.
The directors therefore recommended an interim dividend of 25 kobo per share from its Earnings Per Share of 190 kobo, 40% up from 135 kobo, from which they also recommended 25 kobo each, in the corresponding period of last year, as the bank begins to reap the benefits of its recent acquisition and business combination with the then troubled Diamond Bank Plc. Closure date for the dividend payment is September 24, while payment is slated for October 3, 2019.

Gross earnings for the period rose from N253.024bn in the 2018 half-year to N324.375bn; a breakdown of which showed that corporate and investment banking contributed N140.241bn; followed by personal banking, N93.087bn; commercial banking, N75.57bn; and business banking, N15.362bn. Revenue was driven mainly by interest income of N272.896bn, up by 46.18% from N186.686bn; better than the 16.14% constrained growth in interest expenses from N101.389bn to N117.75bn. Net interest income, therefore, stood at N155.146bn, 81.89% better than the previous N85.296bn.

By geography, the bank’s Nigerian operations posted N277.987bn earnings; rest of Africa, N32.464bn; and Europe, N19.475bn.
Net impairment charge dropped by 33.52% from N7.34bn in 2018 to N4.879bn; following which net interest income after impairment charges soared by 92.76% from N77.956bn to N150.266bn.
Fee and commission income for the period climbed 38.21% from N30.284bn to N41.858bn; just as expense jumped 1,886.67% from N217.896m to N4.328bn; following which net fee and commission income improved by 24.82% to N37.529bn, compared to N30.066bn.
Net gains on investment securities dropped to N4.145bn from N59.564bn; net foreign exchange loss decreased from N33.779bn to N18.936bn; other operating income closed the period 137.77% better at N24.412bn from N10.267bn.

Personnel expenses increased by 19.78% to N31.245bn from N26.085bn; rent expense dropped 63.05% to N822.145m from N2.225bn; depreciation rose 39.21% to N9.311bn from N6.689bn; amortization from N1.349bn to N2.163bn; just as other operating expenses increased by 28.88% from N61.884bn to N79.757bn, with Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) surcharge rising from N22.644bn, up from N17.498bn.

Profit before tax stood at N74.115bn, improving by 51.67% from N45.842bn; PBT from the Nigerian operations stood at N58.448bn; Europe, N9.076bn; and rest of Africa, N7.017bn. Tax expenses for the half-year period increased by 78.39% to N11.091bn from N6.217bn; following which net profit rose 59.05% from N38.625bn, pre-merger, to N63.024bn. The biggest contribution to net profit was the N44.714bn from corporate & investment banking; followed by N14.222bn from commercial banking; personal banking recorded N12.263bn profit; and business banking, N3.581bn.

On the balance sheet, total assets soared by 30.97% from N4.954tr to N6.488tr, boosted by customer loans and advances at N2.65tr, up from N1.993tr; total liabilities rose 32.29% to N5.904tr, lifted by customer deposits which increased from N4.463tr, driven by the N1.618tr or 63.09% growth from N2.564tr to N4.182tr. This resulted in shareholders’ funds increasing by 19.02% from N490.511bn to N583.79bn.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/access-bank-profit-up-59-at-n63bn-on-impairment-charge-drop-despite-rising-costs-tax/#more

Expect Improved Market Performance On Low Valuation, As NGSE Index Trades Below 20DMA

Market Update for the Week ended September 6 and Outlook For 9-13
The heightened volatility and mixed trading last Friday accompanied by selling pressure on highly capitalized stocks continued after the nation’s 2019Q2 GDP data came below market and analysts expectations with slower growth of 1.94% down from the Q1 position of 2.10%.
These points and other narratives that have not changed, but signal further potential weaknesses in the economy, despite the seemingly positive and mixed macroeconomic indices emanating from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). They have been blamed for the continued selloffs in the absence of a sign of change in the Federal Government operating model and style, which is visible in the lack of urgency required by the economy on the part of the newly constituted cabinet. If this was not the case, the Federal Executive Council should by now have been rolling out policies or plans that would give the all-expected direction and stimulate the economy again after so many months of lull.

The week’s sharp decline was driven, in large part, by investors’ reaction to the attack on foreign investments as Nigerians retaliated the xenophobic attacks in South Africa back home, a situation that was not helped by the unguarded statement by Adams Oshiomhole, national chairman of the Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This situation was made worse by other concerns which weighed down the market, forcing a pullback that broke down the 27,000 psychological line again, as it tested 26,895.56 basis points. It then retraced up slightly to close the period under review at 27,146.57bps, as Guinness Nigeria, University Press, Dangote Cement, and Forte Oil hit their new 52 weeks lows on selloffs.

Movement Of NSEASI
Meanwhile, trading for last week started on a positive note as the composite Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share index inched 0.14% up on Monday, with investors extending previous day’s buying interests. This was sustained on Tuesday when the benchmark NSE index crawled 0.08% up on mixed sentiments. Midweek’s trading witnessed a pullback as investors reacted to the slow growth of Nigeria’s GDP in the second quarter, as selloffs hit high cap stocks. The trend continued on Thursday and Friday when the NSEASI shed 0.10% and 0.36% respectively as negative sentiments hit blue-chip stocks like MTNN, and Forte Oil, as well as others like Wema Bank and Transcorp. This pushed the week’s cumulative loss to 1.38%, which was much than the previous week’s 0.99% negative position.

The resurgent selloffs were mainly in high cap stocks, amidst profit-taking in low and medium cap equities that rallied recently across sectors and stocks during the previous week’s attempted rebound. Market breadth for the period closed negative with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 37:27, just as the share price of Guaranty Trust Bank, University Press, Tripple Gee and Stanbic IBTC were adjusted for the full-year and interim dividends declared by their boards.
The energy behind the week’s performance, however, remained weak as shown by the Money Flow Index at 10.29 basis points, down from 15.98bps in the previous week, indicating that funds left some stocks in the midst of indecision, the confidence crisis and low liquidity in the system. Sentiments turned mixed with a ‘sell’ position at 68%, while ‘buy’ volume was 32% on a transaction volume index of 0.71.

NSEASI Weekly Time Frame
The index chart shows that the market attempted to make a lower low in the week under review, but for the current low prices of a number of fundamentally sound stocks, we expect bargain hunting to gather momentum in this new trading week.
We, therefore, expect improved overall market performance on low valuation.
The current chart pattern reveals a reversal as the index continues to trade below the 20 day moving average and on top of the lower band of the Bollinger, just as the Relative Strength Index reads 33.49. But then, Money flow at 10.29 points on the weekly chart.

Mixed Sectoral Indices
Meanwhile, the sectorial indices were largely bullish last week, except for the NSE Consumer Goods, as well as the Oil/Gas indexes that closed down by 1.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the NSE Insurance index led the advancers, after gaining 0.59%. It was followed by the NSE Industrial Goods with 0.59%; just as the NSE Banking index’s 0.20%.
Transaction volume for the period rose by 220.50%, while value rose by 88.43%, after 2.34bn shares changed hands for N19.71bn, compared to the previous week’s 725.61m units worth N10.46bn. During the week also, Access Bank released its audited half-year result showing flat gross earnings and bottom-line, despite which the directors declared a 25 kobo interim dividend per share, preferring to conserve most of the net profit.

Cornerstone Insurance and International Breweries were the best-performing stocks for the period under review, after topping the advancers’ chart with 28.57% and 23.08% gains respectively, closing at N0.27 and N12.00 per share on low price attraction and market forces. On the flip side, University Press and Ikeja Hotel lost 18.20% and 18.18% respectively, closing at N1.12 and N1.17, on price adjustment and market forces.

Market Outlook
We expect a mixed performance due to profit-taking and expectation of the global economy and inflows arising from the 2019 budget implementation. However, discerning investors should take advantage of low valuation to buy into interim dividend stocks and other undervalued equities that have strong potentials to rebound with the general market.

Also, take into consideration the expected economic reforms as the government’s new cabinet swings into action, just as plans by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to reduce banks’ participation in government securities will expectedly boost private-sector lending, drive economic activities and investments.
Selloffs may slowdown in highly capitalized stocks due to portfolio restructuring. Hence, overall market performance may remain mixed, amidst the prevailing positive sentiments and breadth.

Market players should maintain a cautious outlook due to the low investor confidence, liquidity and the wait for major economic triggers. Hence, we advise investors to trade cautiously in the short-term, with their gaze fixed on blue-chip stocks that are selling more than 40% below their 52 weeks high, as we await positive catalysts to drive market recovery.

That notwithstanding, we would not overlook the possibility of a bargain-hunting motive supporting positive performance, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining underpriced. With the prices of major blue chips continuing to drop in recent weeks, we expect speculative trading to shape the market’s direction this week, despite the seeming negative outlook.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/expect-improved-market-performance-on-low-valuation-as-ngse-index-trades-below-20dma/#more

Investdata Weekly Sentiment Report for the week ended September 9, 2019

NSEASI buy 32% sell 68% volume index 0.72 MFI 10.70
Abc buy � MFI 67.28
Access buy 90% sell 10% volume index 1.87 MFI 62.48
Afrprud buy 74% sell 26% MFI 40.43
Aiico buy 0% volume index 1.38 MFI 41.01
Cadbury buy � MFI 56.22
Caverton buy 90% sell 10% MFI 14.29
Chams buy � MFI 22.54
Cileasing buy � MFI 9.49
Custodian buy � MFI 41.67
Cutix buy 64% sell 36% MFI 37.80
Dangcem buy 67% sell 33% MFI 7.67
Dangflour buy � MFI 83.78
Dangsugar buy 71% sell 29% volume index 1.15 MFI 18.47
Eterna buy 0% MFI 70.81
Eti buy 15% sell 85% MFI 29.03
Fbnh buy 0% volume index 0.80 MFI 12.96
Fcmb buy 27% sell 73% MFI 63.16
Fidelity buy 22% sell 78% MFI 43.22
Fmn buy 0% volume index 1.39 MFI 67.03
Fo buy 0% volume index 1.37 MFI 34.97
Glaxo buy 0% MFI 62.33
GT buy 7% sell 93% volume index 2.09 MFI 48.17
Honyflour buy 0% volume index 0.99 MFI 30.36
Jaiz buy 0% MFI 19.57
Lasaco buy 50% sell 50% MFI 84.59
Linkass buy � volume index 0.85 MFI 47.15
Lvstk buy � MFI 9.84
Mansard buy 29% sell 71% MFI 68.24
Mben buy 50% sell 50% MFI 45.94
Nahco buy � MFI 27.69
Nascon buy � volume index 1.37 MFI 32.10
Neimeth buy 0% volume index 0.81 MFI 2.48
Nem buy 0% MFI 37.72
Nestle buy 0% volume index 0.74 MFI 46.99
Npf buy � volume index 1.77 MFI 39.50
Oando buy � MFI 47.09
Okomu buy � volume index 2.16 MFI 10.39
Prestige buy � MFI 98.98
Pz buy 0% volume index 0.89 MFI 19.29
Stanbic buy 0% MFI 6.42
Sterling buy 31% sell 69% MFI 77.15
Transcorp buy 33% sell 67% volume index 0.71 MFI 37.65
Uacp buy � volume index 11.61 MFI 88.21
Uacn buy � volume index 2.17 MFI 38.26
Uba buy 12% sell 88% MFI 50.95
Ubn buy � MFI 37.12
Ucap buy 0% volume index 0.77 MFI 38.49
Unilever buy 93% sell 7% MFI 79.98
Wapco buy 29% sell 71% volume index 2.88 MFI 75.35
Wapic buy � MFI 24.37
Wema buy 50% sell 50% MFI 99.37
Zenith buy 42% sell 58% volume index 0.73 MFI 16.05

https://investdataltd..com/2019/09/investdata-weekly-sentiment-report-for.html

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Trend May Continue On NGSE, As Low Valuations Attract Bargain Hunters, Trigger Buying Interest


Market Update for September 9
Monday’s trading maintained the volatility and mixed sessions narrative as the benchmark index extended its downtrend on a high selling pressure due to investors' concerns over the socio-political and economic situation in the country, especially with issues like heightening insecurity. Sadly too, its 100 days already in the second four-year term of President Muhammadu Buhari, but the government and its economic managers are yet to give the much-needed direction to trigger productivity and consumption. These will effectively change the recurrent stories of slow growth in the economy, such that expansion begins effectively.

The seeming mixed and positive economic indicators so far are an outcome of government trying to combine protectionism, free market, and mixed economic models or policies without giving any direction. Meanwhile, many companies continue to post negative earnings, while the stock market has maintained a downturn for almost two years, following which it now ranks among the worst-performing not only in Africa but the world.
Also, the slow implementation of the 2019 budget and the face-saving decision to rollover 60% of the plan into that of 2020 is not helping the economy, notwithstanding the promise by the government to present next year’s budget to the National Assembly before end of September. The 60% minimum Loan to Deposit ratio for banks as directed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) by end of this month will also inspire a new wave of lending, especially to retail customers. It is hoped that this will engender improved production activities and change the weak economic situation militating against big manufacturers and small scale businesses.

Trading on Monday opened slightly on the upside but remained stable and dull till midday to the afternoon before pulling back on selloffs and profit-taking in Nestle, Access Bank, and Stanbic IBTC at the last few minutes. This forced the market to close lower at 27,089.84 basis points after the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share index had touched intraday low of 27,086.61bps, from a high of 27,231.76bps on a high traded volume.
The session’s market technicals were negative and mixed, as volume traded came lower than previous day’s in the midst of flat market breadth and more negative sentiment, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report. ‘Sell’ volume of 98%, while ‘buy’ position stood at 2% on total daily transaction volume index of 1.40.

The momentum behind the day’s performance was weak, as Money Flow Index slipped to 39.64 points, from the previous session’s 40.71bps, an indication that funds exited some stocks and the market in midst of selloffs and profit booking. The current stock prices and the earnings powers of companies as revealed by their half-year Price/Earnings ratios and the general market show that there are high upside potentials if the economy improves.

Index and Market Cap
At the close of the day trading, the NSE All-Share Index shed 65.73bps, closing at 27,089.84bps after opening at 27,146.57bps, representing a 0.21% drop. Similarly, market capitalization lost N27.6bn, at N13.18tr, from an opening value of N13.21tr, which also represented 0.21% value loss.
Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.

The day’s downturn was due to selloffs and market forces in stocks like Nestle, Stanbic IBTC, Access Bank, Dangote Sugar, Oando, FCMB, and Wema Bank, among others. The loss impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, as it climbed to 13.81%, just as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.31tr or 12.89%, from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Mixed Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bearish, except for the NSE Oil/Gas and Banking index that closed 2.72% and 0.51% higher respectively, while the Consumer Goods index led the decliners, after losing 2.86%, followed by Insurance and industrial goods index which slipped 0.32% and 0.02% down respectively.

Market breadth slightly positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 15:14; while market activity in volume and value traded were down by 6.67% and 33.39%, respectively at 290.49m shares worth N24.29bn, from the previous day’s 311.26m units valued at N6.44bn. Transactions were driven by trades in stocks such as Guaranty Trust Bank, FBNH, Transcorp Plc, Access Bank and UACN.

Again, UACN and UACN Property were the best-performing stocks that topped the gainers’ chart with 9.1% each to close at N6.60 and N1.08 per share on the back of their low price attractions and the proposed restructuring/divestment. On the flip side, Livestock Feeds and Lasaco Assurance lost 7.1% and 6.9% respectively, closing at N0.39 and N0.27 on market forces.

Market Outlook
We expect the trend to continue as bargain hunters take advantage of low valuation to trigger buying interest once the direction is given through economic policies, while investors watch these Sectors that have become defensive recently insurance, industrial goods, and oil/gas ran true to bullish action in no distance time.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/trend-may-continue-on-ngse-as-low-valuations-attract-bargain-hunters-trigger-buying-interest/#more

Upswing Ahead On NGSE, As Bargain Hunters Position Amidst Low Valuations, Buying Interests


Market Update for September 11
Trading activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) at the midweek remained volatile and mixed with the key performance indicators turning green and reversing previous day’s loss while halting five-straight sessions of decline on buying interests in medium and high cap stocks that had suffered losses in recent time.

It is obvious that budgets of any kind are estimates, for financing plans. However, the implementation style makes all of the difference, especially in the case of Nigeria, because budget performance in the country between 2015 and 2018 has been anything but optimal. This has expectedly impacted the life of Nigerians and the economy at large, despite the huge amount appropriated during this period.
The current state of the economy does not require a conservative budget. We believe that Nigeria, at this time, needs an expansionary projection to stimulate economic activities capable of having multiplier effects on the national income, given the effects in increased productivity and consumption that will subsequently oil the macro-economy for good.

A review of the assumptions in the proposed 2020 budget size, shows that it is 2.78% lower than the total estimated expenditure of N10.07trn in the 2019 budget, which is a source of concern for many investors and businessmen (READ MORE).
Also, the outcome of the presidential election tribunal will gradually reduce risks associated with the nation’s sovereignty since the light is becoming clearer as to where the pendulum will swing. We note that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Presidential candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has announced plans to go on appeal before the Supreme Court.
This suggests that early positioning ahead of the Q3 earnings season and the impact of government activities in their 100 days in office any moment in Q1 2020.

The market again resisted a further breakdown of a major support level at the end of Wednesday trading session due bargain hunting on stocks like Seplat, Nestle, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank and investors buying into UBA and Access Bank for their interim dividend.
Meanwhile, midweek’s trading opened on the upside slightly and was up till mid-morning before oscillating between the midday and afternoon, touching intraday high of 27, 157.66 basis points, from a low of 27,009.52bps. It then finally pulled back marginally within the last minutes of trading, closing the day higher at 27,153.53bps on positive sentiments.
Market technicals for the session were positive and mixed, as volume traded was lower than previous day’s, amidst a positive market breadth and high buying pressure , as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing ‘buy’ volume of 97%, while ‘sell’ position stood at 3% on total daily transaction volume index of 0.96.

The impetus behind the day’s performance was weak, as Money Flow Index dropped to 26.39 points, from the previous session’s 27.94bps, this indicated that funds exited some stocks and the market, despite the buying interest in high cap stocks. The current stock prices and the earnings powers of companies as revealed by their half-year Price/Earnings ratios and the general market show that there are high upside potentials if the economy improves. As market PE ratio stands at 6.96x.

Index and Market Cap
The benchmark index at the end of Wednesday trading gained 105.95bps to closing at 27,153.53bps after opening at 27,047.58bps, representing a 0.39% up, just as market capitalization rise by N51.54bn to close at N13.21tr, from an opening value of N13.16tr which also represented 0.39% value gain.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.
The upturn for the day was due to position taking in medium and high cap stocks. The impacted positively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, dropping to 13.61%, even as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.34tr or 12.47%, from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bullish Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bullish, except for the NSE Insurance index that closed lower by 1.26%, while the Oil/Gas index led the advancers, after gaining 2.82%, followed by consumer goods index which was up by 1.6%; ahead of the 0.35% and 0.16% increase respectively by banking and industrial goods.

Market breadth was positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 19:13; while market activity in volume and value fell by 41.93% and 70.18%, respectively at 211.52m shares worth N1.45bn, from the previous day’s 364.29m units valued at N4.86bn. This volume was driven by heavy trades in stocks like Access Bank, Zenith Bank, Seplat, Nestle and Guaranty Trust Bank.
May & Baker and Union Diagnostics were the best-performing stocks, topping the gainers’ chart with 10% and 8.70% respectively to close at N2.09 and N0.25 per share on low price attraction and market forces. On the flip side, UACN and Flour Mills lost 2.07% and 1.80% respectively, closing at N6.05 and N13.34 on profit-taking and market forces.

Market Outlook
We expect the trend to slow down as bargain hunters take advantage of low valuation to trigger buying interest but any breakdown of this recent support level of 26,952.86 points will cause another panic but discerning investors should catch on it to average down because once there is direction through economic policies things will start change gradually as equity prices are underpriced, while investors watch these Sectors that have become defensive recently insurance, banking, industrial goods, services, and oil/gas ran true to bullish action in no distance time.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/slowdown-ahead-as-bargain-hunters-position-amidst-low-valuations-trigger-buying-interest/#more

NGSE Indicators Remain Mixed, But In Red, Await Policy Direction To Enhance Liquidity


Market Update for September 10
Nigeria’s stock market moved lower for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, but attempted to retrace up as revealed by the candlesticks for the period, before pulling back on a high volume to make yet another lower lows amidst persisting indecision among market players on mixed economic data ahead of the release of August inflation numbers by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The continued mixed performance of the stock market in a downtrend in the first 100 days of the second four-year tenure of the Muhammadu Buhari administration shows the strength and impact of governance in the form of economic policies from the monetary and fiscal space. It is well known that these actions and inactions determine what investors and traders should expect from the market and economy in the nearest future. It is yet unknown whether Tuesday’s unveiling of the Federal Government new Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), wherein it announced plans to spend N9.789tr in the 2020 fiscal year (READ MORE), even while the 2019 budget impact is still being awaited is enough stimulus to change the direction of the market. However, we note that increased liquidity from real-time economic stimulus will be necessary at this time if it will come.

As we have previously noted, some stocks that remain the most weather-beaten, year-to-date, have been trying to resist further decline and rebound, but for the persistent low liquidity and dwindling confidence among consumers and investors alike, in the face of growing concerns as to where the economy is headed.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s trading started on the upside slightly and oscillated between mid-morning and midday before eventually pulling back by the afternoon to touch intraday lows of 26,977.36 basis points, from a high of 27,148.69bps. It then finally retraced up marginally within the last minutes of trading, closing the session lower at 27,047.58bps on mixed sentiments.
Tuesday’s market technicals were negative and mixed, with traded volume higher than previous day’s amidst a positive market breadth and mixed sentiment, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing ‘buy’ volume of 41%, while ‘sell’ position stood at 59% on total daily transaction volume index of 1.69.

The energy behind the day’s performance was weak, as Money Flow Index dropped to 27.94 points, from the previous session’s 39.64bps, an indication that funds exited some high cap stocks and the market in midst of selloffs and position-taking. The current stock prices and the earnings powers of companies as revealed by their half-year Price/Earnings ratios and the general market show that there are high upside potentials if the economy improves.

Index and Market Cap
The NSE’s key performance index shed 42.26bps at the end of the day transactions, closing at 27,047.58bps after opening at 27,089.84bps, representing a 0.16% decline, just as market capitalization lost N20.56bn at N13.16tr, from an opening value of N13.18tr which also represented 0.16% loss in investors’ portfolio.

Attention: If you have not signed up for Investdata buy and sell signal setup, don’t delay. We have just added another risk management feature and new stocks of most revered traders and investors in corporate Nigeria to our watchlist. These stocks are with double potentials. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right ahead of Q3 earnings reports portfolio reshuffling and repositioning ahead of fiscal and monetary policy catalysts.

The session decline was attributed to selloffs and profit-taking in stocks like Dangote Cement, Nestle, Forte Oil, CCNN and UACN, among others. The loss impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, as it climbed to 13.94%, even as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.29tr or 12.27%, from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bearish Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely in red, except for the NSE banking index which closed 1.00% up, while the Consumer Goods index led the decliners, after shedding 2.22%, followed by industrial goods index which slipped 1.61%; ahead of the 0.49% and 0.19% decline respectively by Insurance and oil/gas.

Market breadth was positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 19:12; while market activity in volume and value were up by 25.38% and 13.29%, respectively at 364.22m shares worth N4.86bn, from the previous day’s 290.49m units valued at N4.29bn. This volume was driven by heavy trades in stocks like Guaranty Trust Bank, Courville Business Solution, Access Bank, Zenith Bank, and FBNH.
UACN Property and FBNH were the best-performing stocks, topping the gainers’ chart with 8.47% and 7.53% respectively to close at N1.18 and N5.00 per share on the back of the proposed restructuring/divestment and low price attraction. On the flip side, Thomas Watt and Continental Reinsurance lost 9.52% and 7.36% respectively, closing at N0.38 and N1.51 on market forces and profit-taking.

Market Outlook
We expect the trend to slow down as bargain hunters take advantage of low valuation to trigger buying interest but any breakdown of this recent support level of 26,952.86 points will cause another panic but discerning investors should catch on it to average down because once there is direction through economic policies things will start change gradually as equity prices are underpriced, while investors watch these Sectors that have become defensive recently insurance, banking, industrial goods, services, and oil/gas ran true to bullish action in no distance time.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/ngse-indicators-remain-mixed-but-in-red-await-policy-direction-to-enhance-liquidity/

Finally, Olam Intl Agrees To Acquire 5bn Shares Of Dangote Flour Mills For N120bn


•DFM Holds Court-ordered Meeting Oct. 14

After months of what may have been behind the scene haggling, Dangote Flour Mills Plc, on Tuesday, September10, said that Olam International, a Singaporean commodities trading company has agreed to acquire 99% of its entire five billion shares in issue at N24 per share, translating to slightly lower than the initial N120bn.
It also represents “the enterprise value on a debt-free, cash-free basis, payable in cash at the closing of the proposed transaction,” according to an earlier filing in April 2019.

Both companies had initially agreed on a binding offer of N26 per share, or N130bn “consideration” to be “adjusted for net working capital and net debt as of 31 March 2019 or any other later date that may be agreed by Olam and the board of DFM to arrive at the final price payable to equity shareholders.”
DFM had earlier said also that the offer will be reviewed by its board, urging shareholders to exercise caution when dealing in its shares, while awaiting further announcements.

In effect, Olam International will now pay N119.87bn for the remaining 99.9% shareholding.
The N24 per share represents 14.28% premium on the N21 each it closed on Monday, September 9, 2019. However, since the announcement of the proposed acquisition, the share price of DFM has soared by over 200%.
In a filing with the NSE on Tuesday, directors of DFM announced Monday, October 14, 2019, for the court-ordered meeting at which shareholders will consider and possibly approve the scheme of arrangement preparatory to the acquisition of its entire shares by Olam International.

The directors will propose at the October 14 meeting that, subject to the sanction of the court, the beneficial ownership of 100% of the shareholding of the company (not currently held by Crown Flour Mills Limited or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates), be transferred to Crown Flour Mills Limited and any other nominees of Crown Flour Mills Limited.”
For the purpose of the said meeting, the register of members of DFM will be closed between September 30, and October 4, 2019; following which only shareholders whose names appear in the register on Friday, September 27, will be entitled to attend and vote at the meeting.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/finally-olam-intl-agrees-to-acquire-5bn-shares-of-dangote-flour-mills-for-n120bn/#more

Expect Improved Market Performance On Low Valuation, As NGSE Index Trades Below 20DMA

Market Update for the Week ended September 6 and Outlook For 9-13
The heightened volatility and mixed trading last Friday accompanied by selling pressure on highly capitalized stocks continued after the nation’s 2019Q2 GDP data came below market and analysts expectations with slower growth of 1.94% down from the Q1 position of 2.10%.
These points and other narratives that have not changed, but signal further potential weaknesses in the economy, despite the seemingly positive and mixed macroeconomic indices emanating from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). They have been blamed for the continued selloffs in the absence of a sign of change in the Federal Government operating model and style, which is visible in the lack of urgency required by the economy on the part of the newly constituted cabinet. If this was not the case, the Federal Executive Council should by now have been rolling out policies or plans that would give the all-expected direction and stimulate the economy again after so many months of lull.

The week’s sharp decline was driven, in large part, by investors’ reaction to the attack on foreign investments as Nigerians retaliated the xenophobic attacks in South Africa back home, a situation that was not helped by the unguarded statement by Adams Oshiomhole, national chairman of the Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This situation was made worse by other concerns which weighed down the market, forcing a pullback that broke down the 27,000 psychological line again, as it tested 26,895.56 basis points. It then retraced up slightly to close the period under review at 27,146.57bps, as Guinness Nigeria, University Press, Dangote Cement, and Forte Oil hit their new 52 weeks lows on selloffs.

Movement Of NSEASI
Meanwhile, trading for last week started on a positive note as the composite Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share index inched 0.14% up on Monday, with investors extending previous day’s buying interests. This was sustained on Tuesday when the benchmark NSE index crawled 0.08% up on mixed sentiments. Midweek’s trading witnessed a pullback as investors reacted to the slow growth of Nigeria’s GDP in the second quarter, as selloffs hit high cap stocks. The trend continued on Thursday and Friday when the NSEASI shed 0.10% and 0.36% respectively as negative sentiments hit blue-chip stocks like MTNN, and Forte Oil, as well as others like Wema Bank and Transcorp. This pushed the week’s cumulative loss to 1.38%, which was much than the previous week’s 0.99% negative position.

The resurgent selloffs were mainly in high cap stocks, amidst profit-taking in low and medium cap equities that rallied recently across sectors and stocks during the previous week’s attempted rebound. Market breadth for the period closed negative with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 37:27, just as the share price of Guaranty Trust Bank, University Press, Tripple Gee and Stanbic IBTC were adjusted for the full-year and interim dividends declared by their boards.

The energy behind the week’s performance, however, remained weak as shown by the Money Flow Index at 10.29 basis points, down from 15.98bps in the previous week, indicating that funds left some stocks in the midst of indecision, the confidence crisis and low liquidity in the system. Sentiments turned mixed with a ‘sell’ position at 68%, while ‘buy’ volume was 32% on a transaction volume index of 0.71.

NSEASI Weekly Time Frame
The index chart shows that the market attempted to make a lower low in the week under review, but for the current low prices of a number of fundamentally sound stocks, we expect bargain hunting to gather momentum in this new trading week.
We, therefore, expect improved overall market performance on low valuation.
The current chart pattern reveals a reversal as the index continues to trade below the 20 day moving average and on top of the lower band of the Bollinger, just as the Relative Strength Index reads 33.49. But then, Money flow at 10.29 points on the weekly chart.

Mixed Sectoral Indices
Meanwhile, the sectorial indices were largely bullish last week, except for the NSE Consumer Goods, as well as the Oil/Gas indexes that closed down by 1.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the NSE Insurance index led the advancers, after gaining 0.59%. It was followed by the NSE Industrial Goods with 0.59%; just as the NSE Banking index’s 0.20%.
Transaction volume for the period rose by 220.50%, while value rose by 88.43%, after 2.34bn shares changed hands for N19.71bn, compared to the previous week’s 725.61m units worth N10.46bn. During the week also, Access Bank released its audited half-year result showing flat gross earnings and bottom-line, despite which the directors declared a 25 kobo interim dividend per share, preferring to conserve most of the net profit.

Cornerstone Insurance and International Breweries were the best-performing stocks for the period under review, after topping the advancers’ chart with 28.57% and 23.08% gains respectively, closing at N0.27 and N12.00 per share on low price attraction and market forces. On the flip side, University Press and Ikeja Hotel lost 18.20% and 18.18% respectively, closing at N1.12 and N1.17, on price adjustment and market forces.

Market Outlook
We expect a mixed performance due to profit-taking and expectation of the global economy and inflows arising from the 2019 budget implementation. However, discerning investors should take advantage of low valuation to buy into interim dividend stocks and other undervalued equities that have strong potentials to rebound with the general market.
Also, take into consideration the expected economic reforms as the government’s new cabinet swings into action, just as plans by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to reduce banks’ participation in government securities will expectedly boost private-sector lending, drive economic activities and investments.

Selloffs may slowdown in highly capitalized stocks due to portfolio restructuring. Hence, overall market performance may remain mixed, amidst the prevailing positive sentiments and breadth.
Market players should maintain a cautious outlook due to the low investor confidence, liquidity and the wait for major economic triggers. Hence, we advise investors to trade cautiously in the short-term, with their gaze fixed on blue-chip stocks that are selling more than 40% below their 52 weeks high, as we await positive catalysts to drive market recovery.

That notwithstanding, we would not overlook the possibility of a bargain-hunting motive supporting positive performance, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining underpriced. With the prices of major blue chips continuing to drop in recent weeks, we expect speculative trading to shape the market’s direction this week, despite the seeming negative outlook.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/expect-improved-market-performance-on-low-valuation-as-ngse-index-trades-below-20dma/#more

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report as of September 13, 2019

NSEASI buy 96% sell 4% volume index 0.53 MFI 20.35
Access buy �% sell 0% volume index 0.71 MFI 91.59
Aiico buy �% volume index 2.62 MFI 52.55
Chiplc buy �% volume index 2.54 MFI 12.94
Wapco buy �%, vol index 0.16 MFI 83.23
Dangflour buy 0% sell 100% MFI 69.06
Dangsugar buy 100% volume index 1.31 MFI 59.32
Fbnh buy � MFI 45.81
Fcmb buy � MFI 39.61
Fidelity buy � MFI 43.16, volume index 0.33
Fmn buy 0% volume index 0.61 MFI 21.12
GT buy 100% MFI 56.37
Caverton buy � volume index 1.17 MFI 23.56
M&B buy � volume index 3.14 MFI 42.32
Sterling buy � volume index 0.54 MFI 68=72
Transcorp buy 0% sell 100% volume index 0.77 MFI 52.23
Uacp buy � MFI 15.28

Uba buy 100% volume index 0.55 MFI 46.25
Ucap buy � MFI 81.11
Wema buy � volume index 1.17 MFI 51.08
Uacn buy 100% MFI 40.08
Zenith buy 75% sell 25% MFI 54.15

https://investdataltd..com/2019/09/investdata-daily-sentiment-report-as-of_13.html

Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking For September 13, 2019

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/investdata-price-earnings-tracking-for-september-13-2019/

Corporate Actions As Of Week Ended September 13, 2019

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/corporate-actions-as-of-week-ended-september-13-2019/#more

Experts To Speak On Opportunities In Nigeria’s Non-Oil Sector At FICAN Workshop

Abubakar Bello, Managing Director of Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) will deliver the keynote speech, while Ifie Sekibo, MD/CEO of Heritage Bank Limited, will be the guest speaker at the Annual workshop of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN), holding at Golden Tulip Hotel, Festac Town, Lagos.

Bello will speak on the theme: “Unlocking Opportunities in Nigeria’s Non-Oil Sector,” at the event slated for Saturday, September 21, 2019.
A panel discussion will feature the Director Corporate Communications at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Isaac Okorafor; Head of Tax and Corporate Advisory Services, PwC Nigeria, Taiwo Oyedele, and Senior Lecturer at Lagos Business School, Adi Bongo.
A statement by FICAN at the weekend said unlocking the non-oil sector requires collaborative efforts between the government and private sector adding that opportunities in the sector have to be harnessed for effective economic growth.

“The non-oil sector is critical to Nigeria’s sustainable economic growth as it is the largest source of employment to the country’s huge young population. Before the discovery of crude oil in Nigeria in 1956, the non-oil sector, especially the agricultural sector, was the mainstay of the economy. The agricultural sector alone provided 85% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings in the 60s.
“The oil sector now provides over 95% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings.

The challenge is that frequent fluctuation in oil prices has made the Nigerian economy often susceptible to shocks as the economy suffers whenever prices are down. The challenge is further worsened as the world is beginning to look at life after oil in a bid to tackle climate change. It is a pointer that crude oil would become less relevant and attract fewer earnings in years to come. Successive governments have not done enough to tap into other potential non-oil aector sectors,” the statement said.

It said that government’s long term plan is seen in the recent launch of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) for 2017–2020 that contains critical reforms for diversifying the economy away from oil and set it on a path of sustained and inclusive growth over the medium- to long-term.

Among other things, the workshop will bring together experts from global multilateral financial institutions, public and private sector players, to highlight and examine the various options available in getting the economy fully diversified away from reliance on crude oil.
The conference will be attended by journalists covering the money market, capital market, and the insurance industry, from the print and electronic media

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/experts-to-speak-on-opportunities-in-nigerias-non-oil-sector-at-fican-workshop/#more

Investors Await MPC Outcome, Amidst Hope Of Rate Cut, Budget Spending To Spur Growth


Market Update for September 19
Thursday’s trading activities slowed down on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), closing marginally in negative territory, after pausing previous day’s gains as profit booking engulfed banking stocks that rallied only recently.
Also, the seeming flat market could be attributed to investors waiting to see the outcome of the rescheduled Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. We believe that should the meeting’s outcome, which will be known on Friday afternoon, go the way of the market and analysts, with a cut in benchmark rates, the recent rally in the market will continue ahead of third quarter-end window dressing and the Q3 earnings reporting season.

This is because the ensuing low cost of funds will translate to an enhanced market and system liquidity, which would be boosted by implementation of 2019 budget as Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council continues to approve funds for capital projects. The reduced cost of funds at a time many banks rush to meet the CBN’s 60% loan to deposit ratio that would force them to lend hundreds of billions of Naira, would undoubtedly support productivity and consumption in many ways, going into the near future, just as it could be the tunic needed to spike the country’s economy in the final quarter. The value of an asset that pays higher interest or returns will soar if the monetary policy rate is adjusted down further.

The gradual positioning of smart money at this stage of the market should give discerning investors and traders insight as to where, or how to invest wisely with all eyes on President Muhammadu Buhari’s newly constituted Economic Advisory Council to see their first move and the roadmap that further trigger buying interest among the investing public.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s trading started on a slight upside movement, but there was a pullback in the mid-morning to early afternoon on profit-taking in banking stocks like Access Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, UBA, and Zenith Bank. This forced the index down to an intraday low of 27,577.69 basis points, from a high of 27,698.44bps, before retracing up, thereby reducing the losing momentum during the session on the buying interests in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), Dangote Sugar, Dangote Flour, PZ Cussons, and UACN. The index, therefore, closed the day lower at 27,646.15bps on mixed sentiments.

The day’s market technicals were also mixed, with lower traded volume than previous day’s in the midst of market breadth that favoured the bulls, just as Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report showed ‘buy’ volume of 57%, while ‘sell’ position stood at 43% on total daily transaction volume index of 1.08. The momentum behind the day’s performance was, nonetheless, weak, despite Money Flow Index at 45.07 points, from the previous session’s 39.07bps which indicated that funds entered some stocks and the market, despite the down market and decline in transaction volume.

Index and Market Cap
At the close of the day’s trading, the benchmark NSE All-Share Index (NSEASI) fell by 35.46bps, closing at 27,646.44bps after opening at 27,681.61bps, representing 0.13% drop, just as market capitalization lost N17.26bn, closing at N13.46tr, from an opening value of N13.48tr, which also represented 0.13% value loss. However, MACD and Money flow index remained bullish and positive respectively. Both indicators continue to look up despite the loss.

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The decline during the session resulted from traders cashing out profit in banking stocks, a situation that impacted negatively on the NSE’s Year-to-Date loss, which increased to 12.04%, even as YTD market capitalization gain dropped to N1.64tr, representing 14.69%, from the year’s opening level of N11.72tr.

Bullish Sector Indices
The sectoral performance indexes were largely bullish, except for the NSE Banking index that shed 1.50%. The NSE Insurance index led the advancers after gaining 2.90%, followed by Consumer Goods with 0.62%, with the Oil/Gas and Industrial goods indices inching up by 0.14% and 0.05% respectively.
Market breadth remained positive as advancers outnumbered decliners in the ratio of 23:16; while market activities in volume and value fell by 35.33% and 68.69% respectively to 245.56m shares worth N1.67bn, from the previous day’s 379.51m units valued at N5.35bn. The day’s volume was driven by transactions in FBN Holdings, Sterling Bank, UBA, GTBank, and Lafarge Africa.

Consolidated Hallmark Insurance and UACN were the best-performing stocks, after gaining 10% and 9.93% respectively to close at N0.33 and N7.75 each, on low market valuation and reactions to the planned divestment from UACN Property. On the flip side, University Press and Neimeth Pharmaceuticals lost 8.70% and 8.33% respectively, closing at N1.05 and N0.44 on profit booking.

Market Outlook
Despite being the last trading session for the week, Friday’s outlook remains mixed with the expected profit-taking from the short rally and ahead of the MPC meeting end and the announcement of its outcome, while bargain hunters take advantage of low stock prices to position, now that index had pulled back. Discerning investors should latch on it to average down and recoup their investment immediately a recovery stage is set through economic policies and things start to change gradually to influence equity prices positively, while investors watch these sectors that have become defensive recently like insurance, banking, industrial goods, services, and oil/gas that will go bullish in no distance time. Also, with all eye fixed on the newly appointed economic advisory council to settle down and kickoff.


Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/investors-await-mpc-outcome-amidst-hope-of-rate-cut-budget-spending-to-spur-growth/#more

Unemployment: Four In 10 Nigerians Engage in Gambling- NOIPolls

A survey by NOI Polls, Nigeria’s foremost pollster, on Thursday, showed that an estimated 60m Nigerians, translating to four of every 10, aged 18-40, engage in sports betting, lured by grinding twin evils of unemployment and underemployment, especially among the country’s vibrant youth population.

NOIPolls recalled a report by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that these 60m Nigerians spend up to N1.8bn on sports betting daily, based on an average investment of N3,000 per day, which could translate to about N50bn monthly.
This, the survey showed, has been helped by sports betting, which is both online and offline, as well as a gaming industry that has grown geometrically in the past few years, with many operators springing up across the country and occupying every let-able space in most commercial centers.

This remarkable growth is attributable also to the country’s population and increased access to the internet via enabled internet devices such as mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and desktops, among others.
The report noted, for example, that sport betting shops are in almost every street in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, with a population of about 20m people, even as new ones pop up daily.

Respondents gave ‘quest for quick money’ (30%), ‘high rate of unemployment’ (21%) and ‘greed’ (15%), the desire ‘to cushion the effect of economic hardship’ (12%), ‘poverty’ (10%), ‘just for fun’ and ‘passion for sports’ (5% each) and ‘peer group influence’ (2%), as reasons why Nigerians engage in betting and gambling.
NOIPolls also cited a 2016 data report from Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler (KPMG) showing that a leading sports betting company in Nigeria makes an average monthly turnover of $10m.

The growth of Nigeria’s sport betting industry has also been helped by the love for football among Nigerians.
As such, with the commencement of the 2019/2020 football season, especially in Europe, NOIPolls presented findings from its 2017 poll on gambling, conducted in the week commencing July 17, 2017. The survey sought the opinions of Nigerians regarding the prevalence, knowledge and possible reasons for engaging in gambling. The finding revealed that most Nigerians agree that gambling is becoming very popular in the country, particularly amongst the country’s bulging youth population and sports fans.


A significant 77% of Nigerians polled, attested to the high prevalence of betting and gambling in their locality; particularly amongst respondents in the South-West reporting 92%; followed by the South-South, 91%, while the North-west zone (57%) recorded the lowest.
A larger proportion of the respondents, however, disclosed that they do not engage in, or have a family member who engages in betting, even as the report noted that some respondents may outrightly refuse to disclose their participation due to societal stigmatization.

A further breakdown of the survey outcome showed that 36% of those polled admitted personally engaging or have family members who actively engage in betting, 53% of who engaged in daily betting, while 60% of this same group reported that they win a bet ‘few times a month.’ Eight percent of the respondents revealed that they have ‘never won a bet’.
In addition, the poll highlighted that people prefer betting platforms that offer timely redemption of winnings, favorable odds on games, reputation for prompt payment and are easy to use.

NOIPolls, however, expressed concern “that while gambling may serve as an avenue to pool surplus funds from the economy for savings and investment purposes, the side effects of this practice on the population, especially youths may have a negative multiplier effect on the country.
“Gambling has been found to be quite addictive and can stimulate further social vices if not properly managed. It has ruined homes, marriages and rendered people bankrupt,” calling for proper sensitization on the negative effects of gambling.
NOIPolls also stressed the need for the National Lottery Commission to step up its regulatory efforts and ensure that the practice is not abused, or become exposed to young people, especially teenagers.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/unemployment-four-in-10-nigerians-engage-in-gambling-noipolls/#more

Outrage On Twitter, As FG Seeks Fresh $2.5bn World Bank Loan

At a time of acute revenue shortfalls, declining oil output and price, Nigeria’s dominant cash cow over the past five years to finance public spending, Nigeria’s Federal Government is in talks for yet another $2.5bn loan from the World Bank.
Bloomberg quoted the World Bank’s Vice President for Africa, Hafez Ghanem, as disclosing this on Wednesday, discussions are ongoing for the concessionary loan.

Expectedly, the news has received wide criticism from Nigerians on Twitter, with many wondering why the current government is insistent on plunging Nigeria into further debt, even after it double outstanding debts from N12tr to N24tr in the past four years.
This, he explained, is in addition to $2.4bn Nigeria already received from the bank last year, adding that “we’re talking about a new set of programmes of about the same amount; it should be about $2.5bn.

Writing through d@NigeriaNumeric, Nigeria Numeric, a data mining and analysis social company, noted that “767.3bn: The worth of loan that Nigeria has approached World bank with the intention to borrow and this is in addition to the $2.4bn previously borrowed from them.”
“Yet they have deliberately imposed absurd fines on deposits and withdrawals from the bank accounts of citizens,” wrote anioke Collins. C via @Canicols.
Mideno Bayagbon, a former editor of Vanguard Newspaper, now publisher of Thenewsguru.com, an online newspaper, writing through @MidenoBayagbon, noted that we are “speedily borrowing ourselves into debt peonage again.”

Reno Omokri, an aide to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan and well-known critic of the Muhammadu Buhari government, would rather write a letter: “Dear Nigerians, General @MBuhari already more than doubled Nigeria’s debt from the ₦12 trillion he met to ₦24 trillion today. Now he wants to take more loans. How old is Buhari? Almost 80. It is you and your kids who will repay it back!”
Reacting also, Raymond @IamTheIroko, noted rather sadly: “We keep borrowing but won’t reduce the cost of governance.”
@Douglasonyemah wants @WorldBank to “Stop giving Nigeria loans!”

Nathaniel chidozie m @cmaduka3 could only ask rhetorically: “What are these borrowing for Biko nu?
@Afooo_afooo, John D. Afolarin, noted: “Dear @WorldBank, we don’t need the loan. Nigeria is a very rich country, our politicians are riding expensive SUVs. As a country, we have enough to go round but a few are sitting on it. You can give the loan to other countries that are serious. Thanks for your cooperation.”

Sir Johnlouis Ugwuegbu, writing from @SirUgwuegbu noted, “From China to World Bank. Nigeria will get a sense by force. #Nigeria another bombshell.”
As if answering some of the questions, the World Bank was quoted as noting the need “to resolve the problems of the power sector in Nigeria to bring in more investments because you need to bring down the cost of power to make the economy more competitive for the development of industries.

“Nigeria has a comparative advantage in that area because of the youth, a majority of the population is young. So if we want to create jobs, we need to invest much more in the digital economy.”
Ghanem said the World Bank would support Nigeria’s digital transformation because of its potential ability to transform other areas of the economy including industry, agriculture, and services, according to Bloomberg.

https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/outrage-on-twitter-as-fg-seeks-fresh-2-5bn-world-bank-loan/#more

Portfolio Restructuring Ahead On NGSE, Amidst Low Liquidity, Hope For Return Of Smart Mone


Market Update for The Week ended September 20and Outlook for Sept 23-27
Equities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) closed marginally high on Friday as the benchmark All-Share index had mixed performance and sentiments, one the first day after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its Consumer Price Index, showing that inflation in August moderated to 11.02% from 11.08% in July, among other announcements during the period.
Investors were also getting a grasp of the impact of the cashless policy implementation that requires bank customers to pay cash handling charges individuals depositing and withdrawing over N500,000, and over N3m for corporate customers (READ MORE).

Also at the time the market closed for the week on Friday, the outcome of CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting was just beginning to filter in that members unanimously retained the rates against expectations of many analysts and market players (READ MORE).
The decision to hold, rather than cut rates mean the CBN would continue its unconventional approach to monetary easing.
Investdata had expected sustained pressure on the banks to boost lending as the September 30, 2019 deadline to meet the 60% minimum Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) draws closer. We, however, expect the CBN to sustain and expand its development financing interventions to support growth.

As the Feds cut rates for the second time, the European Central Bank restarted Quantitative Easing (QE), after ending it just last December, as the world prepares for a worst-case scenario in the ongoing trade war or show-of-strength between the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world. The bank of Japan BOJ also recently held rates at negative (-0.10%) as it continued by buying its securities, bonds, and commodities to provide liquidity and stimulus to drive activities. Also, the Bank of England (BOE), retained rates despite the uncertainty surrendering its economy due to the raging Brexit issues. Without doubt, the reward for investors in the event of the U.S. and China reaching a trade agreement far outweighs the downside of an indefinite trade war. Already, both countries canceled tariffs on hundreds of products as negotiation is ongoing.

The rates adjustment by the Fed tends to reduce the exchange rate pressure in many emerging markets with attractive yields, as foreign investors are known to take more interest in their asset classes at a time like this.
Consequently, we expect to see foreign investors renew interest in investment assets across emerging markets like Nigeria any moment with the first sign of an economic direction. This, we believe will come soon, as members of the newly constituted Economic Advisory Council (EAC) settle down to their task.

Movement Of NSEASI
Meanwhile, it was a mixed performance during the week, as the NSEASI fell in three sessions and was up in two days. Specifically, the first two days were bearish, halting previous week’s bull transition occasioned by profit-taking and selloff in Airtel Africa, following which the market shed 0.72% and 0.62% respectively on Monday and Tuesday. There was, however, a reverse up at the midweek on improved buying interests in Guaranty Trust Bank, Stanbic IBTC and telecommunication giant- MTN Nigeria, with the index gaining 1.00%. The composite index pulled back on Thursday as players took profit in Zenith Bank and GTBank, losing a marginal 0.13%, but rebounded on Friday, closing 0.20% up.

This brought the week’s total loss to 0.29%, as the index closed at 27,698.69 basis points, after opening the period at 27,779.00bps to short-lived the previous week’s 2.33% gain.
The mixed sentiment was obvious across sectors and industries, but mainly in low and medium cap stocks due to increasing buying interests, as market players took advantage of low prices to position. Market breadth for the period closed positive with advancers outpacing decliners in the ratio of 38:29.

Within the week, RT Briscoe released it belated earnings reports from 2018 full-year to 2019Q2, following which its share price was lifted from technical suspension. Also, WAPIC Insurance got the NSE’s nod for a rights issue at 0.38 kobo each on the basis of seven new shares for six (READ MORE).
The energy behind the week’s performance remained weak as shown by Money Flow Index at 21.24basis points, up from 15.56bps in the previous week, indicating that funds entered some stocks and the market, taking advantage of the undervalued nature of fundamentally sound stocks, and ahead of economic reform policies from the government. The sentiment was mixed with a ‘buy’ position at 53%, while ‘sell’ volume was 47% on a transaction volume index of 0.85.

NSEASI Weekly Time Frame
As shown in the opening chart above, the NSE Index is indicating that the market is resisting further decline as it broke out the downtrend line, attempting to reverse after the double bottom chart pattern formation that supports the continuation of the trend. MACD on daily and weekly looks good as it has turned bullish on daily outlook. We expect bargain hunting to gather momentum in this new trading week, despite funds trying to move into fixed income due to the rates retention by the MPC.
Trend continuation is possible at this point as revealed by the chart above, despite trading below the 20-Day Moving Average on a weekly time frame, just as index action is on top of the lower band of the Bollinger, just as the Relative Strength Index reads 39.98. But then, Money flow is at 21.24 points on the weekly chart.

Bullish Sectoral Indices
All the sectorial performance indices closed in the green as the NSE Insurance index led the advancers, after gaining 4.85%, followed by the NSE Consumer Goods, 2.21%; while Oil/Gas and Industrial Goods Index closed higher by 1.48%, 0.48%, and 0.04% respectively.
Market transactions for the week in volume and value were up by 6.21% and 21.12% respectively, as traders crossed 1.27bn shares worth N18.75bn from the previous week’s 1.15bn units valued at N14.08bn.

Cornerstone Insurance and Livestock Feeds were the best-performing stocks, after topping the advancers’ chart with 30% and 28.21% gains respectively, closing at N0.39 and N0.50 per share on the back of the planned recapitalization and market forces. On the flip side, Airtel Africa and University Press lost 19% and 11.54% respectively, closing at N283.50 and N1.15, on selloff and profit-taking.

Market Outlook
Being the last full week of September, trading activities on the NSE could react to the MPC decision, August inflation data and profit-taking, as funds tend to flow into the fixed income instruments. However, discerning investors should take advantage of low valuation to key into interim dividend stocks and other undervalued equities that have strong potentials to rebound with the general market. The market’s downtrend is likely to reverse soon with strength seemingly returning after a long downturn ahead of quarter-end and Q3 earnings reporting season.

Also, take into consideration the expected economic reforms as the government’s new cabinet and economic advisory team swings into action, just as plans by the CBN to reduce banks’ participation in government securities will expectedly boost private-sector lending, drive economic activities and investments.

The buying interest in highly capitalized stocks may continue due to portfolio restructuring. Hence, overall market performance may remain mixed, amidst the prevailing positive sentiments, breadth and low liquidity as market wait for the return of smart money.
Market players should maintain a cautious outlook due to the low investor confidence, liquidity and the wait for major economic triggers. Hence, we advise investors to trade cautiously in the short-term, with their gaze fixed on blue-chip stocks that are selling more than 40% below their 52-week high, as we await positive catalysts to drive market recovery.
That notwithstanding, we would not overlook the possibility of a bargain-hunting motive supporting positive performance, especially with many fundamentally sound stocks remaining under-priced. With the prices of major blue chips continuing to drop in recent weeks, we expect speculative trading to shape the market’s direction this week, despite the seeming negative outlook.


Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2019/09/portfolio-restructuring-ahead-on-ngse-amidst-low-liquidity-hope-for-return-of-smart-money/