Although we do not anticipate a conventional inter-state war in West Africa in the near term, the possibilities grow as Chad,Niger and Cameroon comes close to achieving the ability to carry out cross border attacks on Nigerian soil, with the quest for oil being the catalyst. Cameroon and Chad are the two only military rival to Nigeria. The leaders of both countries are absolute dictators, commulatively they have held unto power for 60 years by subjugating the populace.

But all that is changing. Just recently the Cameroonian government shut down internet services in the English speaking areas of Cameroon for 50 days after Anglophone teachers and student revolted and went on strike over the economic, social and politica bias in favour of Francophones. Dozens were killed by the BIR (Cameroonian army ) after peaceful protests turned violent.

CAMEROON

President : Paul Biya.

System of government : Dictatorship.

Number of years in power : 32

The Cameroonian government rather than take responsibility blamed Nigeria for instigating unrest in the country. As dissent and protests become more violent,as calls for Paul Biya to relinquish power grows Paul Biya will need a diversion to hang on to power and Nigeria will be the scapegoat.
CHAD

President :Idris Derby

System of government : Absolute Dictatorship.

Number of years in power : 34

On the Chadian side the economy is near collapse. Unlike Nigeria, the Chadian economy is too small to cushion against the effect of unprecedented drop in oil prices. As the economy tanks there is bound to be discontent,civil unrests and calls for him to step down will be inevitable. Without petro dollars to keep his soldiers loyal, subjugating the Chadian populace will not be a walk in the pack.


FRANCE.

Between Donald Trumps retreat from the center stage and Putin’s power play, the new French president is taking a proactive lead in the free world and is keen on expanding French influence across the world. Unfortunately for Nigeria,the one place that French military influence is seen is in West Africa. Nigeria is basically the only country in West Africathat shares no border with an English speaking country. Nigeria is virtually surrounded and there is no way out. Any form of military confrontation will surely see France provide support for its ex colonies and the Anglophone countries are too feeble and weak to proffer any kind if significant support.
In this hypothetical scenario we consider the implication of war breaking out between the Franco Alliance and the most powerful Anglophone country in the region – Nigeria.

The government of Chad and Cameroon is wracked by civil unrest. Fedup witjhyears of discrimination and bias, the Anglophones demand they allowed to secede from Southern Cameroon and join the Nigerian Federation, a country they have closer cultural affinnity with. Thousand march on the streets of Yaounde demanding for a referendum. Ceasing this opportunity the Francophones express their rights for self determination and calls for Biya to step down grows.

Cameroons President Paul Biya in clever bit of subterfuge to divert attention blames the Nigerian government for instigating civil unrest in his country, leading to a diplomatic rift between both countries. After diplomatic talks fails and tensions mount Cameroon mounts pressures on France to approve and support a Cameroonian and Chadian suprise airstrike against Nigeria’s oil infrastructure and terminals, the life blood of the Nigerian economy.

Is any country in Africa capable of crippling the life blood of the Nigerian economy in one surgical strike? A strike that will send global oil prices up the roof.

As of this writing the Chadian Air Force has in its inventory :

10 MiG-29 multirole fighter jets.

8 Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet.

6 Mil Mi-17 helicopter.

5 Mil Mi-24 attack helicopter.
As of the Nigerian Air Force has in its inventory:

22 Hind (Mil Mi-24/35) attack helicopters.

12 F-7N Multirole interceptor.

28 Alpha jets.

6 Mil-Mi-17 helicopters

13 Aero L-39.

3 CH-3 Rainbow attack drone.

On paper this makes the Chadian Air Force second only to the Nigerian Air Force as the pre-eminent aerial power in West and Central Africa. While technically this might be the case, the Chadian Air Force has a much more powerful strike element. It is the only Air Force in West Africa that has close to a squadron of advanced 4th Gen fighter jet- the Mig -29. Complimented by the Su-25 attack plane the Chadian Air Force will easily achieve air superiority in Nigerian airspace and inflict horrendous damage in Nigeria.

Should military confrontation be imminent and the Chadians decide to strike pre-emptively by attacking Nigeria’s vital oil insrastructure in the Niger Delta, Nigeria will be powerless to stop it. With no radar coverage of the length and breadth of Nigeria, even if we have solid Intel on the attack plan Nigeria will still be powerless to do anything about it.

In such a scenario chances are the attack will be launched from Southern Cameroon. A Mig-29 Fulcrum on afterburner will reach its target in Port Harcourt, Warri, Yenogoa in 10 minutes.

Can Nigeria defend against such an attack?

Continue reading : https://defensenigeria./2017/07/21/the-case-for-a-dedicated-air-defense-system-in-nigeria/

We need good roads, schools, hospitals, pension schemes etc etc
Not more machines to be genociding each other in the name of national security

Shine your eyes

SSBN:
Although we do not anticipate a conventional inter-state war in West Africa in the near term, the possibilities grow as Chad,Niger and Cameroon comes close to achieving the ability to carry out cross border attacks on Nigerian soil, with the quest for oil being the catalyst. Cameroon and Chad are the two only military rival to Nigeria. The leaders of both countries are absolute dictators, commulatively they have held unto power for 60 years by subjugating the populace.

But all that is changing. Just recently the Cameroonian government shut down internet services in the English speaking areas of Cameroon for 50 days after Anglophone teachers and student revolted and went on strike over the economic, social and politica bias in favour of Francophones. Dozens were killed by the BIR (Cameroonian army ) after peaceful protests turned violent.

CAMEROON

President : Paul Biya.

System of government : Dictatorship.

Number of years in power : 32

The Cameroonian government rather than take responsibility blamed Nigeria for instigating unrest in the country. As dissent and protests become more violent,as calls for Paul Biya to relinquish power grows Paul Biya will need a diversion to hang on to power and Nigeria will be the scapegoat.
CHAD

President :Idris Derby

System of government : Absolute Dictatorship.

Number of years in power : 34

On the Chadian side the economy is near collapse. Unlike Nigeria, the Chadian economy is too small to cushion against the effect of unprecedented drop in oil prices. As the economy tanks there is bound to be discontent,civil unrests and calls for him to step down will be inevitable. Without petro dollars to keep his soldiers loyal, subjugating the Chadian populace will not be a walk in the pack.


FRANCE.

Between Donald Trumps retreat from the center stage and Putin’s power play, the new French president is taking a proactive lead in the free world and is keen on expanding French influence across the world. Unfortunately for Nigeria,the one place that French military influence is seen is in West Africa. Nigeria is basically the only country in West Africathat shares no border with an English speaking country. Nigeria is virtually surrounded and there is no way out. Any form of military confrontation will surely see France provide support for its ex colonies and the Anglophone countries are too feeble and weak to proffer any kind if significant support.
In this hypothetical scenario we consider the implication of war breaking out between the Franco Alliance and the most powerful Anglophone country in the region – Nigeria.

The government of Chad and Cameroon is wracked by civil unrest. Fedup witjhyears of discrimination and bias, the Anglophones demand they allowed to secede from Southern Cameroon and join the Nigerian Federation, a country they have closer cultural affinnity with. Thousand march on the streets of Yaounde demanding for a referendum. Ceasing this opportunity the Francophones express their rights for self determination and calls for Biya to step down grows.

Cameroons President Paul Biya in clever bit of subterfuge to divert attention blames the Nigerian government for instigating civil unrest in his country, leading to a diplomatic rift between both countries. After diplomatic talks fails and tensions mount Cameroon mounts pressures on France to approve and support a Cameroonian and Chadian suprise airstrike against Nigeria’s oil infrastructure and terminals, the life blood of the Nigerian economy.

Is any country in Africa capable of crippling the life blood of the Nigerian economy in one surgical strike? A strike that will send global oil prices up the roof.

As of this writing the Chadian Air Force has in its inventory :

10 MiG-29 multirole fighter jets.

8 Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet.

6 Mil Mi-17 helicopter.

5 Mil Mi-24 attack helicopter.
As of the Nigerian Air Force has in its inventory:

22 Hind (Mil Mi-24/35) attack helicopters.

12 F-7N Multirole interceptor.

28 Alpha jets.

6 Mil-Mi-17 helicopters

13 Aero L-39.

3 CH-3 Rainbow attack drone.

On paper this makes the Chadian Air Force second only to the Nigerian Air Force as the pre-eminent aerial power in West and Central Africa. While technically this might be the case, the Chadian Air Force has a much more powerful strike element. It is the only Air Force in West Africa that has close to a squadron of advanced 4th Gen fighter jet- the Mig -29. Complimented by the Su-25 attack plane the Chadian Air Force will easily achieve air superiority in Nigerian airspace and inflict horrendous damage in Nigeria.

Should military confrontation be imminent and the Chadians decide to strike pre-emptively by attacking Nigeria’s vital oil insrastructure in the Niger Delta, Nigeria will be powerless to stop it. With no radar coverage of the length and breadth of Nigeria, even if we have solid Intel on the attack plan Nigeria will still be powerless to do anything about it.

In such a scenario chances are the attack will be launched from Southern Cameroon. A Mig-29 Fulcrum on afterburner will reach its target in Port Harcourt, Warri, Yenogoa in 10 minutes.

Can Nigeria defend against such an attack?

Continue reading : https://defensenigeria./2017/07/21/the-case-for-a-dedicated-air-defense-system-in-nigeria/

Awesome insight. But Op, you only mentioned what Chad has. Have you checked up what Nigeria has?

Well I wont be surprise if we dont have much because some greedy people in authority are busy using money for weapons to buy skyscrapers and yachts in foreign nations.

This country is blessed and cursed at the same time. I pray we eliminate d cursed part someday.

xdos:
Awesome insight. But Op, you only mentioned what Chad has. Have you checked up what Nigeria has?

Well I wont be surprise if we dont have much because some greedy people in authority are busy using money for weapons to buy skyscrapers and yachts in foreign nations.

This country is blessed and cursed at the same time. I pray we eliminate d cursed part someday.

I'll be going over that in the second part.

quid:
We need good roads, schools, hospitals, pension schemes etc etc
Not more machines to be genociding each other in the name of national security

Shine your eyes

Of what good is having all these wonderful things if we have no means of defending them. If our politicians had not selfishly gutted the military 30,000 Nigerians massacred by Boko Haram will still be alive today. Does it not worry you ?

SSBN:


I'll be going over that in the second part.

After your done with this series can you cover Navy. I find the piracy in west Africa worrying. Nigeria loses N7trillion over this issue apparently.

SSBN:


Of what good is having all these wonderful things if we have no means of defending them. If our politicians had not selfishly gutted the military 30,000 Nigerians massacred by Boko Haram will still be alive today. Does it not worry you ?

The army was equipped to fight boko haram, but internal politics and corruption crippled the army

I always knew it subconsciously.in a real war,ghana,chad,ethiopia,cameroun,senegal can defeat nigeria within a week.the nigeria military only knows how to do peacekeeping.the lack of alert radars makes us sitting ducks.something tells me that one day cameroun would invade adamawa,taraba or calabar

The scenario nice and dandy but would these guys want to risk a war knowing how fragile they are? Cameroon has two secession movement. We could fund the Bakassi strike force and give them training to be guerrilla force. Then afterwards hold referendum to bring them back in fold. Anglophone Cameroon what's to break off. They would have too many fires to put out in war.

Just recently the Cameroonian government shut down internet services in the English speaking areas of Cameroon for 50 days after Anglophone teachers and student revolted and went on strike over the economic, social and politica bias in favour of Francophones. Dozens were killed by the BIR (Cameroonian army ) after peaceful protests turned violent.

In this hypothetical scenario we consider the implication of war breaking out between the Franco Alliance and the most powerful Anglophone country in the region – Nigeria.

The government of Chad and Cameroon is wracked by civil unrest. Fedup with years of discrimination and bias, the Anglophones demand they allowed to secede from Southern Cameroon and join the Nigerian Federation, a country they have closer cultural affinnity with. Thousand march on the streets of Yaounde demanding for a referendum.

Nigeria’s Air Defence consists of :

9 F7-N Airguard interceptors.

16 Roland mobile short range surface to air missiles system.

30 ZSU-24 self propelled anti aircraft guns (two lost to attrition with Boko Haram)

48 Blowpipe surface to air missiles.

150 Strela 2 surface to air missile.

12 Bofors L/60 towed anti aircraft gun.

16 ZPU towed anti aircraft gun.

400 ZU-23-2 towed high velocity anti aircraft gun.



In other words, Nigeria’s air defense is non existent.
Not only are these systems not strategically placed to protect critical infrastructure, the chances of shooting down a supersonic 4th Gen supersonic fighter, possibly piloted by Belorussian or Romanian mercenaries is zero. Let’s take the Roland SAM system for starters.

The French made Roland SAM system, while very good is too short legged. It was designed to protect tanks and amoured units against low flying jets on the battle field. The Roland system has a operational range of just 7500 meters and a maximum flight altitude of 5,500 meters. Though at speeds of mach 1.6 it is remarkably fast.

By contrast the MiG-29 has a service ceiling (altitude) of 18 kilometers and speeds in excess of Mach 2+. The Blowpipe shoulder launched SAM system bears testament to the fact that Britain has no business making SAM systems. In the Falklands War in 1982, of the 95 missiles fired by the British, only 9 managed to destroy their targets, and these were low flying planes and helicopters.

NAF F-7N interceptors while pretty fast will be eaten alive by MiG fulcrum. In a nutshell, Nigeria lacks a credible Air Defence system. It cannot protect its airspace. Until Nigeria builds up a credible Air Defence system befitting of a regional power, the best deterrent Nigeria can muster at this point is a devastating retaliatory attack.


ARTILLERY FIREPOWER

The Franco alliance at this point is surely aware of Nigeria’s retaliation plans, meaning the Chadian Air Force with ” secrete” French support would have to bomb Nigeria’s Nigeria’s artillery positions. What Nigeria lacks in advanced aerial strike platforms, it more than makes up for in ground attack capabilities. Baring the obvious manpower advantage, the one thing the Chadians and Cameroonians fear is Nigeria’s artillery pieces. The Nigerian Army has more artillery pieces than the combined armies of Chad and Cameroon combined, and Nigerian artillery men are considered among Africa’s best.

Even if Nigeria’s critical oil infrastructure is badly damaged , it will take close to a year for before it starts impacting Nigeria’s war effort negatively. The Chadian Air Force will have to take bomb Nigeria’s massive artillery divisions at the very same time its striking Nigeria’s critical energy infrastructure. Overall this would point to a substantial air campaigns rather than a decapitating pre-emptive strike like those carried out by the Israeli Air Force in its 6 Day War with the Arab coalition.

The chances of the Chadian Air Force taking out a substantial amount of Nigeria’s artillery units, even with the French providing surveillance us next to impossible.

The Nigerian Army Artillery Corps is functionally organised into independent combat units. These units are supported by amoured and infantry detachments. For political reasons and threat perception the Obasanjo administration in the early 2000’s had the massive centralised artillery battalions structured into 17 Field Artillery Regiment and spread out into the six geopolitical zones of the country. Emphasis was placed on increased mobility and improve firepower. This marked the beginning of the concept of independent self sufficient fighting artillery brigades in the Nigerian Army.

At this point Nigeria will have to decide whether to launch a devastating and sustained artillery bombardment on Chadian positions, especially its military and civilian an airfields indiscriminately with no specific target in mind and with the certain death of hundreds if not thousands of civilians, including French military personnel, or to absorb the attack, gather its forces together and go after Idris Derby himself, or at least trigger a coup. Given how enraged the Nigerian populace will be, the temptation to pummel N’djamena with artillery shells and destroy the airfields via which the Chadian jets took off will be pretty overwhelming.

Blue3k:


After your done with this serious can you cover Navy. I find the piracy in west Africa worrying. Nigeria loses N7trillion over this issue apparently.

I'll cover that in part 3. In the Naval arena the Nigerian Navy is without peer. It's the only branch of the Nigerian armed forces that is well equipped. It's one of the few navies in sub-saharan Africa with blue water capabilities.

In other words, Nigeria’s air defense is non existent.Not only are these systems not strategically placed to protect critical infrastructure, the chances of shooting down a supersonic 4th Gen supersonic fighter, possibly piloted by Belorussian or Romanian mercenaries is zero.

Man that ducks but how much would it cost to update air defense. I know we could easily get it from the Russians. I think Syria got some of theirs from them.

Blue3k:


Man that ducks but how much would it cost to update air defense. I know we could easily get it from the Russians. I think Syria got some of theirs from them.

No need for the Russians. We can steal the technology from the Arabs.

HopeAtHand:



No need for the Russians. We can steal the technology from the Arabs.

No, I prefer buying the original to stealing

Let get true and full radar coverage first before we talks of an Air Space interceptor system...Are you aware that many Aircraft and ship use the Nigerian air and water spaces undetected everyday ..

Africa is at the centre of Nigeria's foreign policy,hence,our military passiveness,even in the face of potential African threats.
We need to re-draft our foreign policy to reflect Nigerian interest as the ultimate priority.

Lovely read!! Keep it up op. Lemme start following u for updates

senatordave1:
I always knew it subconsciously.in a real war,ghana,chad,ethiopia,cameroun,senegal can defeat nigeria within a week.the nigeria military only knows how to do peacekeeping.the lack of alert radars makes us sitting ducks.something tells me that one day cameroun would invade adamawa,taraba or calabar

Would u look at the massive excreta!!

Blue3k:
The scenario nice and dandy but would these guys want to risk a war knowing how fragile they are? Cameroon has two secession movement. We could fund the Bakassi strike force and give them training to be guerrilla force. Then afterwards hold referendum to bring them back in fold. Anglophone Cameroon what's to break off. They would have too many fires to put out in war.

I have been on nairaland for a while to know that this kind of wisdom is rare
Bless you brother

Apparently some blokes around think they know more than the architecture in place should some serious shit hit the fan

Just to note :1. Majority of Chadian Air hardware were lost in a crazy whirlwind
2. Her Su-25 & helos frog foots are susceptible to MANPADs

However we cannot sit back and sing kumbaya.
It wouldn't be hearsay for any1 to know that the NA was in quite a limbo for a long- heck we were just paying fat generals- and that caused the arsenal to become derelict

Now,the Air defence systems(as mentioned above) were bought specifically for covering the ass of mechanized & motorized manoeuvre warfare.They're point defence system and what is needed is Area air defence
The reason for a weak (very weak) air defence is largely bcuz of tussle btwn whose authority these systems fall under NAF or NA and till we solve this we'd have our thumbs up our asses

Quick remedies
NA can form a project for the Upgrades of her Roland SAM to the latest generation
Some years back I had authoritative knowledge that our 23mm cannons and some Chinese 35mm cannons where been networked with radar & optronics to serve as credible point defence (Knowing how sluggish we can be sometyms I can't vouch for its completion hence I am advocating we do so if we haven't)

Furthermore there should be exercises once in a while to test our Air defence system in simulated conditions

For the NAF..the present CAS in airman magazine of this year has identified that the service needs 11 Radar sites across the country to successfully cover our airspace in the future.

suggestion;
I'd suggest these are attended to urgently ad these are d foundation on which we'd build a credible air defence architecture


In a later post I' d give my opinions on what and what we need to buy(Preference and reasons why)