Though not widely reported, right now Nigeria on one side and Cameroon and Chad on the other are glaring at each other across multiple contested grounds. To the North along the Borno, Lake Chad frontier. To the South along the contested Bakassi Peninsula. It was the Bakassi waterways that prompted the last serioy skirmishes, when in response to Cameroonian aggression against Nigerian settlers and unprovoked attack on troops garisoned in the Bakassi Islands, the Nigerian Army dealt the Cameroonians a series of short, sharp defeat in the late nineties and mid 2000’s.
But with the hand over of the oil rich peninsula to Cameroon, and renewed violence and persecution on Nigerian settlers , any future war might not be fought on the creeks alone. It will be an economic war with both sides targeting the others economic infrastructure to secure a quick advantage.

Now to many Nigerians, Franco-Nigeria war may seem improbable, but so do most conflicts, until they happened. So did the idea of Boko Haram carving out a quasi caliphate the size of Belgium on Nigerian soil and holding it for more than a year. A full blown conflict between both neighbours while unpleasant to speculate about , is possible, and so we witness renewlay Chadian bravado on the to lake Chad region, and the unfair persecution, if not just Nigerian settlers but even against English speaking Cameroon (Anglophone Cameroon), it is prudent to lay out the odds now rather than be guilty of a failure of being aloof to unfolding events and embarrassed AGAIN should the unthinkable transpire.

First of all, let us not be carried away by Nigeria’s numerical superiority and think Nigeria streamrole Cameroon or Chad in a fight, a fight that most likely will be on their terms as instagators. It’s never that easy in reality.

Nigeria has settled the border dispute over Bakassi, but it prefers to maintain a sizeable military presence in the Bakassi area, to the chagrin of the Cameroonians. The message is clear, ” we have handed over Bakassi, but do not push your luck ”

Further north, Nigeria and Chad have a long history of military confrontations, with Chadian troops actually invading Nigerian territory in the mid eighties until they were pushed back across into Chad all the way until Nigerian troops were a mere 6 kilometres from the Chadian Capital N’Djamena.

History shows that a rancor between the most powerful English speaking country, Nigeria, and Cameroon will easily escalate into a situation whereby a conflict could ensue up north in the disputed lake Chad region independently of events down south, locking Nigeria in a pincer war on two fronts against the two most powerful Francophone countries in the region.

Both Nigeria and Cameroon take a proprietary view of the waters in the Bakassi Peninsula. Cameroon thinks about the Bakassi Peninsula as a zone of indisputable or irrefutable sovereignty where Cameroon ought to make the rules and Nigerian settlers in the Bakassi area ought to obey.

In contrast Nigeria which despite being the regional hegemon has modelled its foreign policy and strategy as part of the ECOWAS Chatter of diplomatic equality amongst all member states regardless of size thinks its goodwill gesture to Cameroon have been taken for weakness. But here lies the biggest problem.

Nigeria and Cameroon share a border running some 1,600km from Lake Chad to the gulf of Guinea. There is a bay of Cross River to the left hand side and Bakassi to the right. Now before the French in co-horts with the ICJ handed over Bakassi to Cameroon, this water ways was under the control of the Nigerian Navy. Now the ICJ ruling says that Nigeria US under obligation to expeditiously and without condition withdraw its administration and military forces from the Bakassi Peninsula, and from Lake Chad area.

THIS IS MADNESS.

Ninety percent of Nigeria’s economic revenue base has its roots, branches and soul in Nigeria’s maritime environment in the Niger Delta region. Nigeria’s oil wells, gas, flow platforms and pipelines all circumvent the inshore and coastal plains of this area. Furthermore, the vast majority of our gas deposits, explorations, transportation and processing falls within this area.

For the Nigerian Navy, having Cameroonian military patrol the waters exclusively portends danger for Nigeria’s economic interest.In other words, Nigeria was dealt a One-Two-Punch. The loss of Bakassi, blocking Nigeria’s access from east to the Atlantic Ocean will not be tolerated, even if it means war with France.

The French are under no illusion for military adventurism in Nigeria. In the event of an all out war with Cameroon, France obligated by treaty to back Cameroon. In that event Nigeria will take it out on French investments in Nigeria, particularly the multi billion dollar Elf Petroleum Nigeria. Elf produces 150,000 bpdmof oil and has a %15 stake in the $3.8 billion Bonny LNG plant.

So in the next episode we analyse who would come out on top if an armed conflict were to break out today between Nigeria on one hand and Cameroon, Chad, (maybe Niger) on the other hand backed by French financial and military aid in equipment…at least at first?

www.defensenigeria.com

Well said n all ears to read n understand also compare n contrast

Igbo West Africa will win.

.....Part two

If Nigerian and French backed forces were to spare again over the Bakassi issue, either due to the persistent prosecution of Nigerian settlers or Anglo Southern Cameroonians, or an outright military provoation over Lake Chad or the Bakassi Peninsula - The Nigerian military may not at all resemble the low tech military of the past that France was able to intimidate by sending sattelite photos of all Nigerian military bases and munition store houses to Abuja and threatening total war should Nigerian shelling of Cameroonian outposts in the Bakassi waterways continue before the ICJ rulling on who owns Bakassi.

In 2014, Nigeria's corrupt leaders basking in a deluded sense of security were stunned by the devastation thousands of well armed Boko Haram militants inflicted on the Nigerian military, once the pride of West Africa.

To add insult to injury, hundreds of Chadian forces and amoured vehicles crossed into Nigeria without authorization and for two drove nearly 120 kilometres westward into Borno State (AGAIN), this time to liberate Malam Fatori, the headquarters of Abadam Local Government Area of Borno State. For perspective, imagine hundreds of Canadian soldiers and amoured fighting vehicles without U.S approval, streamrolling unopposed 100 kilometres into Seattle in Washington State.

This is nothing short of total abdication of power and authority to a foreign actor.

Trust the Chadians and their predatory and opportunistic mentality, the army did not stop there, the Chadian forces took over a small island in another local government in the same Borno State- Kukawa LGA, and took full control of the Kingalla, council. If you expected the Chadians to stop there, you will be dissapointed. Chadians troops then hoisted their flag, not the Nigerian flag- the Chadian flag, on Nigerian territory.

Expecting a fierce diplomatic rebuke and potential military action, the Nigerian government not only kept mute, they attempted to impose a complete media blackout on the event.

The Chadians were like :..." I don't believe this"

Encouraged by the unbelievable lack of response from the Nigerian governments, the Chadian for two straight days drove over long distances in large numbers in a convoy of vehicles to their next targets

" Malam Fatori".

In an ironic twist they finally encountered resistance from NIGERIANS defending their homeland
Boko Haram insurgents The Chadian troops routed the insurgents and after hours of fighting finally chased them away, taking full control of Malam Fatori. So for one week, Nigeria's one time military foe invaded and held Nigerian territory an area the size of Togo and not a single Nigerian aircraft or soldier was found.The lame duck government of Goodluck Jonathan abdicated authority to Chad.

...Now this is where it gets really funny.

To save face, Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan finally spoke to the press on this disturbing development,claiming the actions of the Chadian Army was in line with an already agreed up in arrangement.
(It should noted a year prior, the Nigeria army and Air Force requested permission from Cameroon to go after Boko Haram militants inside Cameroonian territory ,who after staging attacks across the border into Cameroon. The request was turned down by Cameroon.)
In response to President Goodluck Jonathans assertion, Chadian strong man Idris Derby insisted his actions were unilateral. He argued that the marauding activities of Boko Haram were beginning to have a biting effect on the Chadian economy, hence in the face of Nigerian ineptitude or bizarre refusal to stop the cross border attacks, Chad reserved the right to act to protect her nation a security.
Not to be outdone Cameroonian Gendarmes tried similar actions down south but were dealt a serious blow by Niger Delta militants. Cameroon dropped the idea of adventurism in the South and focused on the north east, trying to outdo Chad and prove to its master France that they too have the mantle of the Chadians by boldly crossing over into Nigerian territory in several raids killed hundreds of Nigerians civilians and burned down whole villages with impunity.
Now I am not advocating for military rule, but in the days of Abacha or even Obasanjo this would have been impossible. Nigeria would have carried out reprisal attacks regardless of the consequence.
In World War II two the British buried a German Ace pilot shot down over the English Channel with full military honours in a coffin draped in the German flag and a 21 gun salute because of his astonishing fighting skill as an air man. Like it or not we have to give respect to the Chadian Army for their hard to believe capability in Counter Insurgency and desert warfare. Conventionally they may not measure up to Nigeria now, but you cannot deny they will wipe the floor off Nigeria in the area of low level desert and against urban guerrilla assymetric type of warfare against non state actors.

....BACK TO TOPIC.

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari waves to the cheering crowd in a victory parade at the Eagle Squarein Abuja, after defeating the lame duck incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.
Whether we choose to admit it or not, the man in the above photo is the brain behind Nigeria's military resurgence. He was mostly elected not just in the North but in Nigeria's south on the banner of security and defeating Boko Haram. His election was a turning point for Nigeria's democratic future.

Why?

Because for the first time Nigerians did not vote across ethnic or religious line. The fact he won in many Southern Christian States bears testament to the fact that Nigerians will no longer tolerate election by mandate or ethnicity in deciding who rules Nigeria.
In the final episode we shall examine why he is right when he proclaims Boko Haram has been technically defeated and why France and her cassalsare apprehensive on an armed foyer into Nigeria, despite the optics and display of bravado of the Franco military alliance.

Reading with keen interest.
Not seen anything wrong for now based on what you have said so far though

Episode 3. Who will prevail in a war between Nigeria and French West Africa.

Pictorial Dramatization : https://defensenigeria.blog/2017/08/08/episode-3-who-will-prevail-in-a-war-between-nigeria-and-french-west-africa/

To a fortunate many Nigerians not living in the North East , Nigeria’sdecade long war agsinst Boko Haram is an an abstraction and the suffering it brings, though easy to understand, is hard to truly imagine. A cross nationalconflict of any sort will bring the reality if war right at our doors step.The only way to deter aggression is by having a strong enough military. It’s one of the reasons why identifying and analysing possible conflict scenarios are so essential. They bring these concept into binding focus and deny us the luxury of looking away.

In this pictorial dramatization we examine the man responsible reforming the Nigerian armed forces, the anti corruption crackdown , its modernization efforts and its current capacity to defend against external aggression.

The propensity for conflict within the Lake Chad basin lies within four African States. Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad.


The Lake Chad basin shares similarities with the situation in the South China Sea. When multiple countries are competing for scarce natural resources, and where ambiguity which country controls or have legitimate claims over the resources, the friction between vying States may escalate into violent conflict. Of the four States vying for control, three of them are all Francophone economic and military allies. If violent conflict ensues (and it might), it will be a war between Nigeria on one hand and Chad, Niger and Cameroon on the other hand. One of them have a Defence treaty with France. This might invariably draw France into the conflict because of its treaty obligations.


The distance between Maiduguri and N’djamena is 126 kilometres. The flight time for an F-7N fighter on full afterburners is roughly 16 minutes depending on the weather. Likewise a Chadian Mi-29 can cover that distance in the same time frame. The advantage goes to who strike first.

Air Capabilities of Belingerates.

NIGERIA

No other country in West/Central Africa can match Nigeria when it comes to military spending and projection of power. Baring the consequence, should war between the contesting States becomes inevitable beyond any reasonable doubt, the temptation of Nigeria to carry out preemptive strikes against Chadian military bases before the arrival of the French will be hard to resist.

Should Abuja decide to carry out military strike against Chad, even a limited one, the impact will be devastating to N’djamena. When considering military action however, its important to acknowledge the variables and the presence of French and American reconnaissance bases in Chad and Cameroon that may complicate Nigeria’s ability to strike preemptively.

It is important to consider outside factors, but in this case we are basing our assumptions on a scenario in which Nigeria conducts a limited, stealthy attack using a number of specialised platforms. In a surprise attack scenario, the primary tools for the task would be its fleet of F-7N fighters firing the Chinese made PLC-9 missiles and its new JF-17 fighter bombers. The Nigerian Air Force acquire 12 JF-17 fighters in 2016 but with an initial delivery of just three.

In addition to bombs dropped by NAF planes, Nigeria can rely on its fleet of five CH-3 Rainbow attack drones to flty in on the heels of Nigerian jets and strike the same targets. For this mission The NAF can surreptitiously have its ATR-42 surveillance plane and King Air 350i radar planes off the edge of Chadian airspace. Together these aircrafts can act as spotters for Nigerian Strike planes by scanning the area for threats and vectoring them towards lightly defended targets.

CHAD

The Chadians have a couple of SA-7 SAM systems..

To be continued.


For clarity, Pictorial Dramatization : https://defensenigeria.blog/2017/08/08/episode-3-who-will-prevail-in-a-war-between-nigeria-and-french-west-africa/

Further north, Nigeria and Chad have a long history of military confrontations, with Chadian troops actually invading Nigerian territory in the mid eighties until they were pushed back across into Chad all the way until Nigerian troops were a mere 6 kilometres from the Chadian Capital



I bet u don't know dat it was our president PMB dat lead dis onslaught back den. He was close to d capital b4 he was radioed several times to withdraw to wat we call d START LINE.

SSBN:
Episode 3. Who will prevail in a war between Nigeria and French West Africa.

Pictorial Dramatization : https://defensenigeria.blog/2017/08/08/episode-3-who-will-prevail-in-a-war-between-nigeria-and-french-west-africa/

To a fortunate many Nigerians not living in the North East , Nigeria’sdecade long war agsinst Boko Haram is an an abstraction and the suffering it brings, though easy to understand, is hard to truly imagine. A cross nationalconflict of any sort will bring the reality if war right at our doors step.The only way to deter aggression is by having a strong enough military. It’s one of the reasons why identifying and analysing possible conflict scenarios are so essential. They bring these concept into binding focus and deny us the luxury of looking away.

In this pictorial dramatization we examine the man responsible reforming the Nigerian armed forces, the anti corruption crackdown , its modernization efforts and its current capacity to defend against external aggression.

The propensity for conflict within the Lake Chad basin lies within four African States. Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad.


The Lake Chad basin shares similarities with the situation in the South China Sea. When multiple countries are competing for scarce natural resources, and where ambiguity which country controls or have legitimate claims over the resources, the friction between vying States may escalate into violent conflict. Of the four States vying for control, three of them are all Francophone economic and military allies. If violent conflict ensues (and it might), it will be a war between Nigeria on one hand and Chad, Niger and Cameroon on the other hand. One of them have a Defence treaty with France. This might invariably draw France into the conflict because of its treaty obligations.


The distance between Maiduguri and N’djamena is 126 kilometres. The flight time for an F-7N fighter on full afterburners is roughly 16 minutes depending on the weather. Likewise a Chadian Mi-29 can cover that distance in the same time frame. The advantage goes to who strike first.

Air Capabilities of Belingerates.

NIGERIA

No other country in West/Central Africa can match Nigeria when it comes to military spending and projection of power. Baring the consequence, should war between the contesting States becomes inevitable beyond any reasonable doubt, the temptation of Nigeria to carry out preemptive strikes against Chadian military bases before the arrival of the French will be hard to resist.

Should Abuja decide to carry out military strike against Chad, even a limited one, the impact will be devastating to N’djamena. When considering military action however, its important to acknowledge the variables and the presence of French and American reconnaissance bases in Chad and Cameroon that may complicate Nigeria’s ability to strike preemptively.

It is important to consider outside factors, but in this case we are basing our assumptions on a scenario in which Nigeria conducts a limited, stealthy attack using a number of specialised platforms. In a surprise attack scenario, the primary tools for the task would be its fleet of F-7N fighters firing the Chinese made PLC-9 missiles and its new JF-17 fighter bombers. The Nigerian Air Force acquire 12 JF-17 fighters in 2016 but with an initial delivery of just three.

In addition to bombs dropped by NAF planes, Nigeria can rely on its fleet of five CH-3 Rainbow attack drones to flty in on the heels of Nigerian jets and strike the same targets. For this mission The NAF can surreptitiously have its ATR-42 surveillance plane and King Air 350i radar planes off the edge of Chadian airspace. Together these aircrafts can act as spotters for Nigerian Strike planes by scanning the area for threats and vectoring them towards lightly defended targets.

CHAD

The Chadians have a couple of SA-7 SAM systems..

To be continued.


For clarity, Pictorial Dramatization : https://defensenigeria.blog/2017/08/08/episode-3-who-will-prevail-in-a-war-between-nigeria-and-french-west-africa/

Take the European barbarism back to Europe

Ride on. I wish some young officers will just go haywire for a very little time frame.

DonBobes:

Further north, Nigeria and Chad have a long history of military confrontations, with Chadian troops actually invading Nigerian territory in the mid eighties until they were pushed back across into Chad all the way until Nigerian troops were a mere 6 kilometres from the Chadian Capital



I bet u don't know dat it was our president PMB dat lead dis onslaught back den. He was close to d capital b4 he was radioed several times to withdraw to wat we call d START LINE.

that's exactly the noise u ppl have been disturbing our ears with for some years now,which led us to the mighty ditch the country has fallen into by voting in buhari!

This is just all u could grab uunto from all that lengthy expository writ!

DonBobes:

Further north, Nigeria and Chad have a long history of military confrontations, with Chadian troops actually invading Nigerian territory in the mid eighties until they were pushed back across into Chad all the way until Nigerian troops were a mere 6 kilometres from the Chadian Capital



I bet u don't know dat it was our president PMB dat lead dis onslaught back den. He was close to d capital b4 he was radioed several times to withdraw to wat we call d START LINE.

what's stopping him from chasing boko haram into Chad?

Op,a lot of Nigerians are not ready to fight for this useless hell hole again,let the politicians and there family fight for Nigeria

post=59329811:
what's stopping him from chasing boko haram into Chad?

Hmmmmmm
well we learn every day, d day we stop learning we are dead. I know you don't know i was talking about the time PMB was in d military & because d chadians infiltrated our borders so since PMB was d oga back den at d border he had to stop dem n even went further deeper.