Mynd44:

The same narrative that made Agbaje lose the election.

Keep setting up your candidates oooo

Agbaje lost by majority votes na. Where did I say yorubas are not the majority votes in Lagos?
The Bloc votes that gave Buhari 60% could not have won ambode the governorship in lagos?
And which candidate is our candidate? Is there an Igbo man there or are the igbos living in a different economy from the one we all experience?

cstr1000:

The truth can be wahala. That is why it is bitter.

.....tahhh,,,..i wanted boko gone anyways...other things didnt interest me....

Mynd44:

If President Buhari's Corpse contests in 2019, he will get 95% of the votes.

That is the following he has there as a result of pushing back Boko Haram.

They voted him for that andthey think he has come through

Atiku is a strong man in the north-east hope you know? And identity politics is powerful. That they voted overwhelmingly for him in 2015 is because the opponent was a southerner who they felt did not care about their plight. 2019 might be different.

Maduawuchukwu:


Atiku is a strong man in the north-east hope you know? And identity politics is powerful. That they voted overwhelmingly for him in 2015 is because the opponent was a southerner who they felt did not care about their plight. 2019 might be different.

You have no idea do you?

[quote author=Clerverly post=61779619]

Motor park analysis, the elections in Nigeria are not won based on the number of zones a candidate wins but rather on a simple majority, provided the candidate meets the required 1/3 of the votes in the 2/3 of the Federation.

The total votes of the entire South East/SS are not bigger than that of the North West, Before you add other regions...

[/quote

You are a political illiterate. The South-East/South-South are regions too with people. Won't their numbers factor in whether some one gets even a simple majority vote or not? Won't their numbers matter in calculating whether someone gets the necessary 25% in 2/3 of the states?

Axelrod:

The truth of the matter; it is easier for this poster to be President by 2019 than for the South to vote out President Buhari, should he decide to contest.
Hold on, I know you don't share my position and want to attack me now. But can you set emotions aside so we face reality?

-Now, President Muhammadu Buhari is highly revered in the North. Most Northerners, particularly, the Muslims who hold the majority in terms of population see him as their Messiah and will vote for his obituary poster(pun intended here). In that case, Buhari on a wheel chair will still win in the entire.

- In the South, he has allies who will rather die than not support him, even if he were on a sick bed. These persons include; Rochas Okorocha, Governor of Imo State, Rotimi Amaechi, Babatunde Fashola, Ibikunle Amosun, Chris Ngige, Fayemi Kayode, et al.

With those people, Buhari will get the needed votes from the South (he may not necessarily win the South).
If you check, I did not mention Tinubu nor Obasanjo. That was on purpose. Because, in some quarters, people believe that Tinubu has fallen out of favours from the President and as such ''may'' not support him by 2019.

So you see! It is almost impossible to vote out Buhari and he, just like his supporters, like Sarrki, Cleverly, Hungerbad, Omenka, Mynd44(no ban me o, I get right to talk o) and others know this. Hence, they keep shouting, Buhari till 2023.

Let the bashing begin!

While i agree with your prelude, i think the crux of your argument does not hold water. Despite Buhari's God like status in the north, how come he couldn't win the election in the previous times that he contested? It's mainly due to the fact that most of his votes came from the core northern states and he couldn't get the middle-belt votes as well as the south-west votes which he got this time around. That's exactly what changed. And the reason he was voted by these regions was because of the influence of Tinubu and the APC machinery in the south-west. For the middle-belt, they just joined the bandwagon of changed because they really suffered in the hands of their PDP reps.

This time around, Buhari will really find it tough because we all know that the SE and SS will not vote for Buhari. He may not even win Edo state which is the only APC state in the region. A lot of people in the SW have also become disenchanted with his rulership even though some may try to hide it. It's the same story in the middle-belt.

The only way Buhari will win the 2019 election is if PDP or any opposition do not present a popular candidate. I think at the point, it's PDP's election to lose because Buhari's presidency is the worse ever in the history of Nigeria. He makes Jonathan look like a demi God.

Let's also not rule out the springing up of a new political merger towards 2019.

he would win if atiku is the flagbearer of PDP.

[quote author=Maduawuchukwu post=61781426][/quote]

you are scattered everywere......the north have already claimed their igbos in their states......the west claimed their igbos....

and we deltans have claimed ours too.....who are you claiming??.......

that was not meant as an insult....

It's show clearly, people were in delusional when in politic of Nigeria, I don't know for what!
There were three natural zone in Nigeria and anything in politic decided by these zones, North, Sw, Se!
if you win 2/3 of the zone you won!
Atiku, fayose or any opposition candidate can never win in the Sw!
The re-election of Buhari is certain in the North likewise in Sw 2019!

cstr1000:

A 4 regions against 2 is an inevitable lose regardless of the permutation.
A SE/SS , NC, SW will win any remaining 2. It is as simple as that. Though I am not saying atiku will win those regions.
Even if Buhari win 95% majority votes in the north-east. As long as he does not win a numerical advantage in the number of regions, the game is still in play. And that is my point.

The SW gave Buhari bloc votes. It was impossible not to.
The redeemed-osibanjo connection, the tinubu-APC factor, the GEJ factor all made it a blco vote for buhari in the SW. Majority of the 40% votes in the SW to buhari came from none-yorubas especially in Lagos.

GEJ got huge votes in Lagos and the Igbo people there played a major role but what about Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti? Was it Igbo there who gave him almost have of the votes? The answer is no. We should stop threatening our positions.

Mynd44:

You have no idea do you?

I am northern based. My family has been here for close to a century so I understand northern politics almost as much as an indigene.

Axelrod:
Before you proceed, kindly know that this is my personal opinion which I am entitled to, just like you are entitled to yours!

It is no longer news that Nigerians are undergoing much more suffering in the President Muhammadu Buhari's administration than has ever been experienced in the 18years of absolute democracy in the country.

This suffering and hardship has been defined differently, according to each person's political views and affiliations. President Buhari's supporters have not wasted any chance to shout to high havens that the suffering and hardship is as a result of the rot left behind by the defeated, now opposition Peoples Democratic Party, particularly, the immediate past administration of President Goodluck Jonathan has been fingered the most.

Whereas, others see it differently, as they believe the hardship is as a result of the ruling party's inability and inexperience to manage the country. Those in this school, point to many factors to proof their points. Some of which are:

1. Nigerian Naira was around 197 to one USDolloar, $1 = N197, at the tthe the current administration took over powers, but now, the difference is almost double of what it used to be.

2. PMS pump price was at N97, despite the fact that crude oil sold for $100/per barrel then. Now it is at N145 even though crude oil is selling at $54/barrel.

3. The Nigerian Economy was one of the best in Africa, yet after the new administration came on board, the economy plunged into recession.

4. As a result of the recession, food stuffs skyrocketed, thus, the hardship in question.

5. Etc

Be it as it may, Nigerians, particularly those from the Southern part of the country have accused the current President of sectional leadership style. Some believe the President favours citizens from the North more than he does those from the South.

This accusations have formed the basis for which many people who feel unduly treated, together with those not feeling the impact of this government, should I say, those feeling the impact negatively, have vowed to vote President Buhari and APC out of power, come 2019.

The truth of the matter; it is easier for this poster to be President by 2019 than for the South to vote out President Buhari, should he decide to contest.
Hold on, I know you don't share my position and want to attack me now. But can you set emotions aside so we face reality?

-Now, President Muhammadu Buhari is highly revered in the North. Most Northerners, particularly, the Muslims who hold the majority in terms of population see him as their Messiah and will vote for his obituary poster(pun intended here). In that case, Buhari on a wheel chair will still win in the entire.

- In the South, he has allies who will rather die than not support him, even if he were on a sick bed. These persons include; Rochas Okorocha, Governor of Imo State, Rotimi Amaechi, Babatunde Fashola, Ibikunle Amosun, Chris Ngige, Fayemi Kayode, et al.

With those people, Buhari will get the needed votes from the South (he may not necessarily win the South).
If you check, I did not mention Tinubu nor Obasanjo. That was on purpose. Because, in some quarters, people believe that Tinubu has fallen out of favours from the President and as such ''may'' not support him by 2019.

So you see! It is almost impossible to vote out Buhari and he, just like his supporters, like Sarrki, Cleverly, Hungerbad, Omenka, Mynd44(no ban me o, I get right to talk o) and others know this. Hence, they keep shouting, Buhari till 2023.

Let the bashing begin!

Now u babe told us all d reasons y buhari will win.. Now tell us all d reasons y buhari will not win...

Not every stupid write up needs a reply. Na ur vote and his family members will take him back for a second time of cluelessness. Nonsense!

Maduawuchukwu:


I am northern based. My family has been here for close to a century so I understand northern politics almost as much as an indigene.

i dont believe that.....

tinsel:
If only igbos can stop insulting the south west and for once play a good politics just for one task of not re-electing Buhari.

Like though we don't see Yorubas who insult Igbo people here.

tsdarkside:


i dont believe that.....

Na your cup of tea.

every state has the right to govern their states as they like....if you are igbo and live in lagos,then you become automaticaly a eko.....

the interest of the states come before any other nonesense like tribe.....

you igbos sef.....una wahala too much....if the north dont like alcohol,then blaimy,dont go their....

stay in your area.....simple......

OZAOEKPE:

Hustle get as e be, but we thank God we not on the street begging. Make God answer the cries of Nigerians

and you still see money for subscription to enable you spew rubbish here.
Nonsense iPods

Axelrod:


Was it a lie

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/10/fg-explains-exported-yams-rotten/

vanguard? the exporters denied the report of both vanguard and that incompetent media house called a.i.t they even showed documents of customs clearance at u.s and u.k ports.

You have spoken well. You know that feeling while walking down the road when a car comes at you or something scary and you're paralysed for a moment? That's the state PDP is in, still shocked. So 2019 will still be decided by APC. The hope is to have someone truly better this time around.

IbnSultaan:

Buhari base is still strong, Relative calm and Govt efforts in North east will secure a strategic voting block, the North west will vote in these line along side certain states in NC & SW, if the opposition is able to rebuild itself before 2019 but currently the opposition is in chaos and lacks a prospective candidate with a uniting and charismatic substance, as such 2019 election will be decided at the APC primaries

Afam4eva:

While i agree with your prelude, i think the crux of your argument does not hold water. Despite Buhari's God like status in the north, how come he couldn't win the election in the previous times that he contested? It's mainly due to the fact that most of his votes came from the core northern states and he couldn't get the middle-belt votes as well as the south-west votes which he got this time around. That's exactly what changed. And the reason he was voted by these regions was because of the influence of Tinubu and the APC machinery in the south-west. For the middle-belt, they just joined the bandwagon of changed because they really suffered in the hands of their PDP reps.

This time around, Buhari will really find it tough because we all know that the SE and SS will not vote for Buhari. He may not even win Edo state which is the only APC state in the region. A lot of people in the SW have also become disenchanted with his rulership even though some may try to hide it. It's the same story in the middle-belt.

The only way Buhari will win the 2019 election is if PDP or any opposition do not present a popular candidate. I think at the point, it's PDP's election to lose because Buhari's presidency is the worse ever in the history of Nigeria. He makes Jonathan look like a demi God.

Let's also not rule out the springing up of a new political merger towards 2019.

The way you guys analyze and predict election results is so weird The election is PDP to lose? How? In the south east? Where? Buhari only needed the coalition to get to power....and now that he is there, with APC Governors controlling about 26 State governments, with 95% of northerners in firm grip, instrument of power,(INEC, Police etc) and with a South Westerner Osinbajo as his running met, pray tell, how will the election be a contest with PDP who has even been supporting secession camouflaged as Restructuring? Do you think the average Northerners are not taking notes of the Hatred being preached by Fayose and FFK?

How many elections has PDP being able to win since 2015, despite their propaganda against Buhari/APC? Do you think PDP will garner the kind of votes they had in 2015 without the aid of police and the military which are firmly in the hands of South East APC politicians?
Ask Wike, PDP in Imo State, PDP in Ondo State, PDP in Edo State how elections are held when you are at the receiving end...

Have you seen Obiano, Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi. Ayade, Udom and Umahi criticize Buhari before? Reason, they are more interested in the second term bids[b][/b] than any useless presidential election..

Afam, concentrate on ipob things...you dont know anything about Nigerian Politics...

Axelrod:
Before you proceed, kindly know that this is my personal opinion which I am entitled to, just like you are entitled to yours!

It is no longer news that Nigerians are undergoing much more suffering in the President Muhammadu Buhari's administration than has ever been experienced in the 18years of absolute democracy in the country.

This suffering and hardship has been defined differently, according to each person's political views and affiliations. President Buhari's supporters have not wasted any chance to shout to high havens that the suffering and hardship is as a result of the rot left behind by the defeated, now opposition Peoples Democratic Party, particularly, the immediate past administration of President Goodluck Jonathan has been fingered the most.

Whereas, others see it differently, as they believe the hardship is as a result of the ruling party's inability and inexperience to manage the country. Those in this school, point to many factors to proof their points. Some of which are:

1. Nigerian Naira was around 197 to one USDolloar, $1 = N197, at the tthe the current administration took over powers, but now, the difference is almost double of what it used to be.

2. PMS pump price was at N97, despite the fact that crude oil sold for $100/per barrel then. Now it is at N145 even though crude oil is selling at $54/barrel.

3. The Nigerian Economy was one of the best in Africa, yet after the new administration came on board, the economy plunged into recession.

4. As a result of the recession, food stuffs skyrocketed, thus, the hardship in question.

5. Etc

Be it as it may, Nigerians, particularly those from the Southern part of the country have accused the current President of sectional leadership style. Some believe the President favours citizens from the North more than he does those from the South.

This accusations have formed the basis for which many people who feel unduly treated, together with those not feeling the impact of this government, should I say, those feeling the impact negatively, have vowed to vote President Buhari and APC out of power, come 2019.

The truth of the matter; it is easier for this poster to be President by 2019 than for the South to vote out President Buhari, should he decide to contest.
Hold on, I know you don't share my position and want to attack me now. But can you set emotions aside so we face reality?

-Now, President Muhammadu Buhari is highly revered in the North. Most Northerners, particularly, the Muslims who hold the majority in terms of population see him as their Messiah and will vote for his obituary poster(pun intended here). In that case, Buhari on a wheel chair will still win in the entire.

- In the South, he has allies who will rather die than not support him, even if he were on a sick bed. These persons include; Rochas Okorocha, Governor of Imo State, Rotimi Amaechi, Babatunde Fashola, Ibikunle Amosun, Chris Ngige, Fayemi Kayode, et al.

With those people, Buhari will get the needed votes from the South (he may not necessarily win the South).
If you check, I did not mention Tinubu nor Obasanjo. That was on purpose. Because, in some quarters, people believe that Tinubu has fallen out of favours from the President and as such ''may'' not support him by 2019.

So you see! It is almost impossible to vote out Buhari and he, just like his supporters, like Sarrki, Cleverly, Hungerbad, Omenka, Mynd44(no ban me o, I get right to talk o) and others know this. Hence, they keep shouting, Buhari till 2023.

Let the bashing begin!

I see that the defeat of Goodluck Jonathan taught you nothing about "a people tired of a leader" and wish to trash him for anyone - a real or potential messiah. Your Buhari will lose in a landslide, and his defeat will be so massive that he may develop a stroke on election night. WHY?


Those people you mentioned will rather die than to see Buhari lose, have "one vote each to cast, not ten million votes each" - go ask Orubebe, FFK, Dieziani, Asari, Dasuki, Sambo, Anyim, Metuh, Dokpesi etc. these were people who had political clout and cash to move mountains, but when the people thought otherwise, all their powers was no match when the PVC showed up. There OP who seems to suffer from chronic Amnesia, you seem to forget too soon because you only see the present and you forget that this same time, 3 years ago, Goodluck looked like the "Rock of Gilbratar" with all the trappings and candor of power, and he was consumed by it when he started dollarizing the election thinking some big names; political heavy weights, the media, traditional rulers, intellectuals, Nollywood stars, soccer stars, comedians etc. INSTEAD OF THE MASSES, could save his campaign. To his credit, the man did his best and accepted defeat because the people were just tired of that name PDP, and wanted something else after 16 years, despite the fact that almost everyone in APC was a disgruntled former PDP member.

Now having refreshed your mind about the events that brought in PMB some 30 months ago, I need you to realize that "THE PEOPLE" not a group of power hungry oligarchs is the "SOLE DENOMINATOR IN EVERY ELECTION EQUATION" especially now that the PVC has power. From the current pulse in Nigeria, your PMB has a steep mountain to climb. And he is most likely to lose -

1. His poor handling of the IPOB issue shows the SE is locked out from supporting his candidacy, even the most illliterate Nigerian knows this.

2. His Northern Agenda of appointment, even baffled the most sympathetic Yoruba electorate and they know what to do in 2019.

3. Don't expect Tinubu to openly campaign against Buhari right now, but I know his foot soldiers are "rolling the tanks of an election coup"

4. The witch hunt of only PDP members and beatification to sainthood of the likes of Rotimi Amaechi, Buratai, SFG Lawal will finish PMB

5. That national broadcast he gave when he returned from U.K. Where he threatened Nigerians will be remembered, he is done!

6. The litany of lies and broken promises of the APC will turn voters away. $1 is not N1, instead it's more than double from N157 to N360

7. The onslaught of Fulani herdsmen ravaging the country with rape, murder, plunder and PMB's docile response will be remembered.

8. The grazing bill which is a calculation to colonize the country for the Normadic and barbaric Fulani will be remembered.

9. No one should ridicule a sick person, but the irresponsible disappearance of Buhari, refusing to brief Nigerians on his health is a liability

10. With almost zero convictions of the EFCC under Buhari, the people's desire to see kirikiri full of corrupt politicians has vaporized.


And many more time and space will not permit me to type, the PEOPLE WILL SEND HIM PACKING COME 2019 !!!!! Enough said.

CODEEATER:


Talk wat u know oga...both my parents are federal workers and the last salary paid was February, and it wasn't even complete salary...

Lies from the pit of hell. This IPOB guys don carry their propaganda come here abi. If your parents are yet to receive their salaries since February as you claimed, it means your parent are among those ghost workers the Ministry of Finance discovered earlier this year. They need to be arested.

Kalashnikov102:
When everyone eyes don open

he could win d north ooooh and preside over them but for south never easily nigeria go disintegrate

talk2percy:
Not every stupid write up needs a reply. Na ur vote and his family members will take him back for a second time of cluelessness. Nonsense!

She's actually right. Buhari will win if he's alive and well to contest in 2019. Here are my own reasons:
1) he enjoys huge support of the North
2)The North has huge population. By 2019, most of the 10m out of school children in the north will be qualified to vote and will vote for him
3)if he presents Osibanjo, he will still get block votes from Yorubas who will enjoy the possibility of a presidency if the incumbent should die. Born agains in Redeemed and Winners will still support their pastor.
4) there will be voter apathy in SS and SE if the two major parties present Hausas

It sucks being Igbo or SS right now, but democracy is a game of numbers. Right now, the Hausas and Yorubas have it and will continue to be the beautiful bride for a long while

Afam4eva:

While i agree with your prelude, i think the crux of your argument does not hold water. Despite Buhari's God like status in the north, how come he couldn't win the election in the previous times that he contested? It's mainly due to the fact that most of his votes came from the core northern states and he couldn't get the middle-belt votes as well as the south-west votes which he got this time around. That's exactly what changed. And the reason he was voted by these regions was because of the influence of Tinubu and the APC machinery in the south-west. For the middle-belt, they just joined the bandwagon of changed because they really suffered in the hands of their PDP reps.

This time around, Buhari will really find it tough because we all know that the SE and SS will not vote for Buhari. He may not even win Edo state which is the only APC state in the region. A lot of people in the SW have also become disenchanted with his rulership even though some may try to hide it. It's the same story in the middle-belt.

The only way Buhari will win the 2019 election is if PDP or any opposition do not present a popular candidate. I think at the point, it's PDP's election to lose because Buhari's presidency is the worse ever in the history of Nigeria. He makes Jonathan look like a demi God.

Let's also not rule out the springing up of a new political merger towards 2019.

tell me any popular candidate from north that can stand buhari?
Even at that,
No popular candidate from south can stand buhari even in his wheelchair.

Jesusloveyou:
and you still see money for subscription to enable you spew rubbish here.
Nonsense iPods

Painment

Axelrod:


3. The Nigerian Economy was one of the best in Africa, yet after the new administration came on board, the economy plunged into recession.

Nigeria's Economy might be the biggest but it's definately, definately, definately not the best.

The supposed humongous support Buhari enjoys in the North is actually a myth . A lot of people won't vote for him but won't say so based on "Na our person". A lot more will not support him by 2019 so far as it's another northerner that's is contesting against him.

Op has a valid point,,, but it depends on who is going against him

The permutations of 2019 still favours pmb simply because the north has no other uniting face. Getting votes in the ss n se will be a tough one, the sw are evaluting the benefits of their supporting pmb in 2015 the results are unfavourable. Pdp is out of the question as its now more of an area boys gathering than a political party. Im afraid of another political party coming into the scene cos it may just make an already terrible situation worse.

Pmb has taught me that a good leader is useless without a good team. Pmb assembled a poor team to work for him.

cstr1000:

Buhari can get majority of the north-east.
The only thing ATiku needs to do is to get as much northern votes as possible. It doesn't have to be majority.
Then sweep the entire SE/SS, get Igbo support nationwide, and then somehow get a region to join them and he has won.
A 3-3 scenario with SE/SS support is a victory for the SE/SS.

buhari will get more than the votes he got from the ss and se in 2019 if he should contest in 2019, get that fact.