It is a fact of History that protracted wars always run at loggerhead with the intended objective which such wars seek to achieve. Such campaigns are insidious, baleful, and malevolent in all ramifications to the actors involved. Of greater damage is the preponderant contingent whose hitherto frightening and cryptic capability is perpetually denigrated and rendered susceptible to attempts at external coercive diplomacy and Schadenfreude. Thus, from the era of “The Art of War” to the “On War” and even contemporary debates, strategists have rebuked protracted campaigns for according to Sun Tzu, “there has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited”.
The most potent of the threats that befalls a nation-state in the 21st century involved in a protracted campaign is not external, but within – the hazard of negative public opinion. A classical instance here is the American 20 year escapade in Vietnam and the concomitant nature of events that culminated in its 1975 withdrawal. The point worth noting is that by the mid 1960s, the war had assumed two fronts: that against the Vietcong and that against the American public opinion. While the hard approach was exclusively bequeathed the Vietnamese, tremendous lies often euphemized as “war propaganda” was utilized at home to cage and control vicious opinions. The logic thus is, if you can’t win the war swiftly, win the people, so as to sustain the much coveted momentum.

Seemingly, the gargantuan Nigerian armed forces has been perpetually harassed by an underdog - the Boko Haram militant group since 2009. The dreaded militant group has astonished onlookers and analysts by defying the superior force unleashed it by the Nigerian army and thus, surviving the government’s onslaughts to this day. From empirical evidences, one could rightly surmise that both contingents are weary. On the nature of the war: guerrilla? irregular? unconventional? of whatever preferred appellation, cognomen or sobriquet, the fact remains that the war against Boko Haram has become a protracted one.

Retrospectively, by the mid 2014, the Nigerian forces were plummeting and descending on the Boko Haram militants like whirling wind in coordinated and uncoordinated sorties. The result was apparent as the militants retreated to the crudest of the interior. With swift consummation and persistent assault it is presumed, the terror group could have been annihilated. However, the then government undermined the power of negative public opinion and its effort and achievement was summarily discredited and slowed down. The resentment engineered by the attempt at winning the war and losing the people was so virulent that stakeholders from the affected region hyperventilated for the trial of the then Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Azubuike Ihejirika at the International Criminal Court for war crimes. Also, the obstinate nature of the President Jonathan’s led administration to negotiate and secure the release of the abducted Chibok School Girls at excruciating and security jeopardising terms meant it cherished winning the war than winning the people. The Jonathan’s government intransigence on maintaining the hard approach than digging deep into the dialoguing alternative transcended it a terror personality to the vantage of a myriad of opinion bigwigs and modulators. At a point in time, President Jonathan’s monotonous lines of reactions and condemnations of major attacks became appalling to some groups who resented and queried the virtue in every move he made, especially on ‘bloody Sundays’. Thus, on hostile opinions, the Jonathan’s administration was castigated beforehand in anticipation for failure, even at moves it was yet to make. Alas, in a seemingly state of paranoia, the administration realised the imperative of telling the people what they want to hear, be it fact, factoid or sophistry and garnering a favourable public opinion by vehemently combating the war on the two fronts. Unfortunately, twilight was nearand the administration had to bow out with neither a victory on the war nor the people.

Upon assuming office in May, 2015, the succeeding administration, led by President Muhammadu Buhari made it one of its core objectives to mesmerize and influence opinions and to a large extent infiltrate and tilt opinion levers through a versatile and sophisticated media team of which a commentator has christened the “Buhari Media Crew” (BMC). There was henceforth a synergy between efforts at winning the theatre and that of winning public opinion. The sophistries and lies churned out became too monstrous and “tangible” to be euphemized. Nevertheless, it achieved its goal of muzzling negative and logical questionings and criticism and graduating daily, a plethora of simpletons and gullible populations who care less about the war situation. Aside the BMCs infiltration of the media hubs, there is a coincidental passivity on the part of news media to cover and feed the public with the latest developments in the theatre, unlike before. Information now filters through and in most cases, from social media and foreign media channels. It appears the war against terror has been won already, but at the theatre. In fact, President Buhari seldom releases statements to condemn terror attacks. It is not coincidental; history has taught him that to wield a positive public opinion, you have to abstain from monochromatic lines of reaction over seeming incessant attacks.

Interestingly, President Buhari, in an onslaught against negative opinion had announced and in fact declared the insurgents in the northeast “technically defeated” by December, 2016. Yet, data concocted by “NewsWeek” claims about 2,306 persons suffered casualties to the terrorists’ conundrums in the troubled region by the first quarter of 2016. The President again, declared the insurgent group finally decimated on December 24, 2016. But this time, not without a package to tame the public sword. That package was regalia, insignia and paraphernalia of assumed fleeing Boko Haram echelons. The purpose of this choreography was achieved for it took less than anticipated time for the media to ‘orgize’ on the feat while other opinion stalwarts rammed the presidency with felicitations and compliments on the job well done.

The second declaration of this veneer of a victory against Boko Haram and the frenzy that ensued was repercussive for it culminated in the introduction of a new word into the lexicon of Nigerian army’s press register. Henceforth, whether major or minor engagement, press releases by the army deliberately describe Boko Haram’s rampages as perpetrations by “remnants” of the defeated group. The psychological effect of such word and its application cannot be overemphasized as the ‘man’ in the public and media became mannequins on subsequent pillages by the terror group. Even the accidental nuking of the Rann IDP camp in January attracted subtle condemnation. When it appeared the “remnant” metaphor was becoming stale and drudging, it was imperative that the public be milked in a more tantalizing paradigm. This manifested in the May 6 release of 82 Chibok School Girls. From a BBC source, the bargaining chip was 5 Boko Haram generals and €2million. Of course, the terms for the release of the girls could be argued to be at variance with the objective of defeating the terror group but it is incontrovertibly at concordance with the goal of winning positive opinion for the government has got to win either (the war or the people) or both!
Recently in June 3, the army announced the instantaneous surrendering of a mammoth figure of 700 Boko Haram militants. Yes, 700! Your guess is as good as mine; such feat is only legendary but situations have crafted it that the government has got to tell the public what they’d love to hear for it is dangerous not to fight the two fronts. The events characterizing the aftermath of the attack of the NNPC oil experts in July, 2017 divulges how ready the government is at being in terms with the public. What would make the army release a statement claimto have rescued a group of persons it did not than goodwill and political meekness? The war against negative public opinion in this protracted struggle against terror militants is so raw and rugged and it has been won already. No degree of attack or mistake as it stands can deform the counterterrorism strategy of the current administration. No abduction or kidnap could instigate or replicate the Chibok School Girls’ reaction. Twice the administration has defeated Boko Haram, severally it has killed Shekau, and severally thousands of militants have surrendered. These are shenanigans, not for the theatre, but for the masses. At least, unlike his predecessor, the Buhari’s government has not lost it all, he has mastered the art and act of modulating negative public opinion, hence, the actual war can be protracted for all it cares!

Charles E. Ekpo is the
Founder and National Coordinator of the History 4 Nation-Building Initiative
The Initiative can be reached at history4nationbuilding@gmail.com

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