By Collins Onuegbu

Buhari will be the president of Nigeria till 2023. This is not my wish. It was not my wish that he became president in the first place. In each of his runs till 2015, I was sure he was not qualified to lead Nigeria, the biggest economy in Africa. My reasons were more economic than political. Even though the interrelationship between national economy and politics are too intertwined to divorce one from the other. Buhari will be president till 2023 for almost the same reason he has never present in the first place until 2015. This article is not to justify this sad reality. It is rather an advisory on how businesses can help themselves by accepting that what we have now will last till 2023 because Nigerian politicians will install Buhari again in 2019. Whether you like it or not, Despite his woeful performance since 2015.

Why would Buhari win the 2019 presidency despite his below per performance in virtually all aspects of his promise to the presidency? Buhari campaigned that his predecessor had divided the country. By Buhari, I also mean his party on which he came to power. But today, Buhari has unleashed the type of divisiveness the country has not seen before. Even his speeches remind us of the folly of war. Who was preparing for war with Nigeria before he became President? Except perhaps Boko Haram that wanted him as their negotiator? But today, there is tension all over Nigeria. From IPOB to Boko Haram, to Fulani Herdsmen. At the last count, several sub nationalities are thinking of independence. From Oduduwa Republic to Biafra to the Republic in the Niger Delta. Our religious fault lines are being exacerbated by the presidents very posture and actions.

Buhari promised to fight corruption. But we all know how the fight is going. He has to be prodded to take the fight to those around him. The fight has been with the opposition and those who have no access to his government. Its been used to bring opposition figure into his party as anyone who comes inside the party gets protected. The fight is tottering on the brink of collapse.

He promised to revive the economy. His initial actions pushed the economy into a tailspin and we ended up in recession. I admit that the oil price collapse dealt his government a big blow. But his reaction was slow or nonexistent. He wobbled and fumbled until the economy went into a recession. The current exit from recession owes nothing to his actions, Oil price has gone up again.

So, despite the gloom of this government, why would Buhari be in power past 2019? It is because parties win elections and not the individuals. And parties like Businesses build structures and coalitions that help a candidate to power. Buhari failed in all his previous campaigns because he failed to build a national collation that could challenge an incumbent. In 2015, crack within the ruling party, general dissatisfaction with the incumbent, alignment of national forces to build the APC and international support brought Buhari to power. It was not because of his competency. He was the actor upon which the coalition rode to power. But like every other thing, he has not helped build this institution that brought him to power preferring instead to recede to his enclave. He has whittled down and scattered the collation. Today, the Tinubu faction which tipped the race in his favor are considering challenging him. Atiku who helped split the ruling party with some governors is considering heading back to PDP, a party he helped to kill. Saraki, who led the governors out of PDP is bidding his time, using the senate as the main opposition to the president. Except his kitchen cabinet who were not instrumental to bringing him to power, Buhari has not managed to solidify the structure that he used to ride to power.

But he will still win in 2019. And I will look at some of the things that will allow him to win

Number one is incumbency. A Nigerian president is as powerful as they come. His capacity to raid the treasury and dispense favor for electoral gains is unquestionable. And don’t think that Buhari, with his fake anti-corruption profile will be immune to this corruption. He can use appointments to ensure that he is returned fair or foul to the presidency. Buhari fired the first shot in this direction by ensuing that leadership of all institutions that will control the electoral system were in his control. Military, electoral, security. All from his part of the country that wants to retain power. It is a duty for them to keep him in power for the “ good” of the region. Secondly, for a president who complained about the size of ministers in the beginning, he recently promised to expand his cabinet. And appoint people to fill boards that have been vacant since he came in. In fact, some of those boards are currently filled by the opposition. Expect the president to dispense favors by providing job for the boys who will run his elections.

Number two is the state of the opposition. Buhari has his party ticket. Its his for asking as the incumbent. But the opposition is in disarray. PDP, the once powerful party in power is passing through dark times. And can hardly muster the necessary will to challenge the incumbent. The recent flirtations with Atiku is just not going to amount to much. Atiku has damaged his reputation beyond repair. He is better than the incumbent as a presidential material. Atiku knows how to run things. Knows how to build the team he needs to execute as a president. And would be a decent president when compared with what we have had in recent times. But he allowed his ambition to get the better of him. First with Obasanjo when he was vice president and later when he was jumping from party to party and back.

The next thing that will ensure that Buhari remain in power is the tribal nature of our politics. Despite our presence to this reality, the Nigerian election is fought on regional and tribal lines. Buhari has solidified his base in the north. By playing enclave politics, he has kept his base. And the north will not let power go easily. Even if the economy wobbles forever. Its not about competence. Its about control. Buhari in the presidency provides control of the economy and national politics to the north. They will not gamble on that. And I would possibly do the same if I were in their shoes. Recent experience with power since 1999 gives them a reason to. That will ensure that a candidate Tinubu will find out that despite supporting Buhari to power in 2015, it will be foolhardy to challenge him in 2019. All Buhari needs to do is hold the North and come south and fish. IF the South West leaves APC, the party they helped create to support Tinubu, Buhari will head South East and South South. Unfortunately, when Tinubu could, he ignored the South East and South South and aligned with the North. He cannot come back and start seeking a southern coalition to challenge Buhari. He has no moral right to.

Other factors like an improving economy and pressure to perform will give the president a few positive notches to campaign with. All the hullabaloo about his incompetence will be drowned by the APC propaganda machine reeling out real and imagined achievements that will make him the saint he was before the elections. Let me see another candidate that will challenge that and defeat him

Which is rather sad. Because Buhari had a chance to change Nigeria for good when he won in 2015. Because he won a national mandate. Was not challenged after winning and had enough goodwill to carry out fundamental reforms that could have built the foundation for Nigeria’s future prosperity. But unfortunately, the man that was projected as candidate Buhari soon unraveled after the election to the Buhari we all know. And today, the reality is staring us in the face. And its too late to make any amend. We are just stuck with this for the foreseeable future. I advise those who want real change to start building the structure for 2023.

What does this mean for the business community? The positive side is that you can take the current situation as your reality and plan around it. Its not the best but it has become predictable. You are sure of the trajectory of the economy for the next six years. Predictability is good for business. This is the single reason that I think that despite Buhari, the Nigerian economy is on the brink of a boom within the next couple of years. The predictability will also allow certain things that are being done by the present government and those started by the former governments to continue building up for the benefit of the economy. From the stability in the financial system, to better infrastructure in aviation, railways to road networks to power, I believe that we will start to see some improvements as projects started by government start to take off.

Also, the sub economies in the states will support the growth of the economy. Despite the national recession, the economy of Lagos, the biggest economy after the federal government is growing. And the state has a government more efficient and effective than the federal government. In several states across the different regions in the country, smart state governments are beginning to diversify their economies from the over dependency on the federal government. I mentioned Lagos. You also have Anambra, Cross River, Edo, Ogun, Kebbi, Kaduna. The list may be longer, but these sub national economies will become catalyst for growth as their economies grow from agriculture to manufacturing, and services.

The stability will also allow for foreign investments. Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa, as bad as it is. There is a lot that foreign investment looking for good returns can do in Nigeria. We need to build our infrastructure. Foreign investment is required. Once there is predictability on the direction for the nation, foreign capital will look for opportunities. And in Africa, Nigeria is it. The influx of foreign capital beyond our capital markets will help the economy grow. If you are an investor interested in Africa, this is the time to take a position on Nigeria. This is because despite the lethargy and fumbling by politicians, the worst I believe is over and we can look forward to a cycle of boom that will last way beyond the life of the regime of the current occupant of the presidency.

So as much as I would like to have a smarter president a more nationalistic president, a more transparent president, and a president that can execute better on his mandate than the incumbent, I am resigned that we will have him around for the next six years. It’s not the best thing to wish on long suffering Nigerians. It will really be nice to bless them with a great leader. But this is reality. He is not going anywhere soon. Get used to the idea and build your life to survive despite his failings. Your livelihood and business may depend on it.

But then again, I may be wrong. Nigeria has a way of surprising those who predict its future.

CC: Mynd44, Seun, lalasticala

Alert me when it hit Fp

PDP will form a new government in 2019.

Hmmmm

Agbaletu:
PDP will form a new government in 2019.

They'll give APC a good run for their money but the odds in winning are very low.

Agbaletu:
PDP will form a new government in 2019.

God bless you! The OP is on a long thing. President Buhari has demystified GMB. He is now a colossal failure that even a thief will defeat come 2019!

All I know is this will be Buharis last tenure

We would kill Buhari if he manipulates 2019 election...or we form a parallel government. Buhari must go!!

Prophet of Doom

Come 2019 Buhari will be bundled out of Aso Rock....

Whether the north like it or not... If they like let them make Nigeria ungovernable... Come to think of it; Buhari made that statement (I will make Nigeria ungovernable) and still became the president of this country.... Wowwwwwww!!!

Been a long time I saw those 30k BMC social media warriors... They are shamefully hiding their head under the ground like ostrich...

Sai Baba the empty vessel dullard

tuniski:

God bless you! The OP is on a long thing. President Buhari has demystified GMB. He is now a colossal failure that even a thief will defeat come 2019!

how far? its 2023