Dear Nairalanders,pls let's have a logical and rational argument/debate regarding the political scenario and activities currently at play regarding the 2019 presidential election . You don't have to agree with anything I say,as views are mine,but let's devoid this thread of any insults,abuses and revilements

1.it is issential to know that the majority of those senators and HA,if not all,left APC solely for selfish interest and a battle of political survival within their domain of juridiction..Apart from Saraki,all of them are having a running battle with their respective governor for the control of machinery and structures of their state,and knowing that the governors hold the ace,it's a foregone conclusion regarding an automatic ticket..when Buhari said this after their meeting

"We understand that some of the distinguished and honourable lawmakers have issues with their home states, especially on zoning which bars some of them from seeking another term in their constituencies,”

from the above quote,we can deduce and attest that the defection had nothing to do with Buhari,as non of them have any specific grudge or malice against the president,but from the fact that he couldn't promise them an automatic ticket to contest

2.apart from Saraki and kwankwaso,all other senators and HA are lightweight politicians who got elected either through the magnanimity of their governor or through a sweeping wave of support for their party,even a dog could have clinch a political post under APC during 2015 elections.

Having defected,some of them have a better chance to retain their seats in the legislative chambers through an automatic ticket(probably offered by pdp) and a contest between an APC legislative opposition,but I marvel at the thought of some political analyst who think that any of the senators can sway,share or split the votes of Buhari in core north

forget about the factor of incumbency,governors,war chest,military,police etc!!..which politician dead or alive do u think can divide the votes of Buhari in the likes of Zamfara,kebbi,sokoto,kano,jigawa ,kaduna,borno,bauchi,niger,gombe,gombe state?,absolutelt non!

whether you like it or not,these are safe heavens and a no go area of any of the candidates!!

Buhari will comfortably win in[b]kogi state[/b],and will win kwara,nasarawa and adamawa(atiku as presidential candidate) state with a slight margin,but will probably lose[b]platue,benue and taraba state with a slight margin[/b]

South West
the SW is an important and critical region for any of the candidates,base on inec statistic,it's the second region with highest registered voters,this will go a long way in deciding who wins the election..APC controlling all the states structures,Tinubu desperation to hold on to his power and political base and the thought of north doing another 8 yrs(if Buhari eventually loses),will most probably propel SW to vote en mass for Buhari

SE/SS
I don't have much to say about these regions,as Buhari will definitely lose,but this scenario will be different from 2015 as both candidates are northerners/Muslims..party affiliation will be the difference,but Buhari will perform much better than he did in 2015 because of less sentiments e.g religion,ethnicity etc..this will make up for the lost votes in[b]platue,benue and taraba state[/b]
[/b]
the truth is that,these defections has no political clout and weight in hampering,hindering or changing the presidential election map

excuse my typo

SURE, THE sane ones know that.
Only the wailers think otherwise, which is understandable.
They have been losing back to back in recent times.

Buhari is a failure already

alhassanyusuf29:
Dear Nairalanders,pls let's have a logical and rational argument/debate regarding the political scenario and activities currently at play regarding the 2019 presidential election . You don't have to agree with anything I say,as views are mine,but let's devoid this thread of any insults,abuses and revilements

1.it is issential to know that the majority of those senators and HA,if not all,left APC solely for selfish interest and a battle of political survival within their domain of juridiction.

from the above quote,we can deduce and attest that the defection had nothing to do with Buhari,as non of them have any specific grudge or malice against the president,but from the fact that he couldn't promise them an automatic ticket to contest

2.apart from Saraki and kwankwaso,all other senators and HA are lightweight politicians who got elected either through the magnanimity of their governor or through a sweeping wave of support for their party,even a dog could have clinch a political post under APC during 2015 elections

forget about the factor of incumbency,governors,war chest,military,police etc!!..which politician dead or alive do u think can divide the votes of Buhari in the likes of Zamfara,kebbi,sokoto,kano,jigawa ,kaduna,borno,bauchi,niger,gombe state?,absolutelt non!

Buhari will comfortably win in[b]kogi state[/b],and will win kwara,nasarawa and adamawa(atiku as presidential candidate) state with a slight margin,but will probably lose[b]platue,benue and taraba state with a sligh

excuse my typo

Man you better wake up! One of the defector openly referred to Mr president as tyrant, and you are still under the illusion that the defection has nothing to do with a non performing buhari! Besides putting kwara as one of the states where buhari would win already shred your points.