izombie:
Op don't use senatorial elections to judge the strength of apc in the se/ss. I have said this before that for example, an anambra person may vote for tony nwoye who is in apc but will never vote for buhari during the presidential election. Any apc candidate may win election in the se/ss but buhari can never get up to 5% votes in 2019.

So what do we use to judge? Who even told you that the votes pdp gets is even valid and not rigged?

I knw were dis is going so, i dnt need 2 read to d end....
Sai Baba

Efewestern:
APC "might" clear delta Central , and might also get more than 45% vote in Delta state, I don't know about other states, I'm just saying this due to my current observations, was even surprise when a Bus driver was shouting APC apC, lol.. Omo-agege influence in the state is growing very large, and if they give Ogboru ticket, then APC might be able to pull a strong stunt in the state.

Let's see how it's goes, PDP so far hasn't proven to be worthy of our votes, not with the likes Of Saraki and Atiku championing their cause.

In all, these politicians are evil and wicked, those who wants to kill for them should go ahead.

My brother,i thank you for being objective.your the foremost delta and urhobo history specialist on nairaland.i have read many of your views on nairaland,there very sound.you also appear neutral or non partisan hence your honesty.i wish you can comment more on the politics section.
The only matter i seem to disagree with you is the true owners of warri.but thats for another day.

Turantula:

This my yeloba muslim friend eh!

Am from cross river oga.lets stop this fallacy of hasty generalization.both pdp and apc have supporters everywhere.every state has both muslims and christians no matter how insignificant their number.am not a muslim sha but am a moderate christian

senatordave1:
The four rerun polls held across the country has given signals and pointers on how next year polls will pan out.pdp failed to record at least 25% votes in the rerun polls held in bauchi and katsina something they achieved in 2015 which shows they have regressed and have failed to penetrate apc bases.on the other hand,apc have won several polls held in the ss/se.magnus abe won heavily in rivers denying pdp 25%.apc have not failed to at least record 25% in any staggered election in this zone.
Before 2015,apc never got up to 25% in any polls in the ss/se.even in obudu,rivers,delta national assembly polls in 2015 apc got less than 15% while struggling to win in the north.it clearly shows that apc will get at least 25% in all the states except bayelsa,enugu and maybe abia.
Imo:okorocha is in the forefront to succeed buhari in 2023.he will do anything to deliver imo to buhari in order to brighten his chances.plus,he will be going to the senate to represent orlu zone.worst case for apc here is 30%.
Anambra:tony nwoye is going to the senate and therefore will put more efforts in delivering for buhari.he may go back to his thuggisgh ways by enploying thugs and security to defeat pdp.vote buying will be rife.i see him easily winning stella oduah.since in the presidential polls it will be between apc and pdp,buhari will win anambra east,west,ayamelum and oyi.apga wilk secretly side apc or remain neutral because of the beef with peter obi.again anytime apga ally with pdp take advantage to sweep out pdp in the legisative races.uche ekwunife and ngige who needs to convince buhari of his seriousness in succeeding him in 2019 will deliver njikoka,dunukofia,idemili north and south.ekwunife did this for gej in 2015 and will re enact it.andy uba should win ekwusig and his aguata.
Ebonyi:umahi is pro buhari and will largely be neutral allowing ogbonnaya onu who has presidential desires in 2023 and elechi plus the growing muslim population to get 25%.
Enugu:buhari will lose woefully here but pdp wont poll more than 500k.
Abia: buhari best showing here will come from abia north.bende lga which orji kalu comes from has a large voting capacity and will deliver for buhari courtesy ouk.apc lacks strong chieftains in abia central and south and may lose heavily there if apc dont go into a pact with apc.
Rivers: apc is assured of 25% here already
Akwa ibom: with akpabio's defection,apc will get at least 30%.
Cross river:apc hold sway in cross river central.buhari may win here or lose narrowly to pdp.buhari will also get reasonable votes in the south and north.many here dislike pdp and are grateful to buhari for giving them an avalanche of federal appointments,the highest in the south.it is unprecedented.the governor is also pro buhari.if the two apc factions can unite,they will get 25%.
Edo:buhari will win here albeit narrowly.
Bayelsa:buhari will lose here heavily but pdp wont poll more than 300k.
Delta:the ayiri influence in warri,the ogboru and agege influence in the central should give buhari 25% or more.




In summary,the 2019 polls wil be similar to that of 2015.apc will win heavily in nw/ne,pdp winning ss/se.the deciding factors will be the sw/nc in which apc has an edge.yesterday rerun has shown that apc will likely win kogi next year through a combo of money,foodstuffs and violence.apc will also employ it in nasarawa and plateau to record narrow wins.only kwara is safe for pdp but apc should get 30% here.

hahahahahahaha hahahahahahaha i heard someone say that apc will win anambra state hahahahahahahhahahahhahaa

senatordave1:
The four rerun polls held across the country has given signals and pointers on how next year polls will pan out.pdp failed to record at least 25% votes in the rerun polls held in bauchi and katsina something they achieved in 2015 which shows they have regressed and have failed to penetrate apc bases.on the other hand,apc have won several polls held in the ss/se.magnus abe won heavily in rivers denying pdp 25%.apc have not failed to at least record 25% in any staggered election in this zone.
Before 2015,apc never got up to 25% in any polls in the ss/se.even in obudu,rivers,delta national assembly polls in 2015 apc got less than 15% while struggling to win in the north.it clearly shows that apc will get at least 25% in all the states except bayelsa,enugu and maybe abia.
Imo:okorocha is in the forefront to succeed buhari in 2023.he will do anything to deliver imo to buhari in order to brighten his chances.plus,he will be going to the senate to represent orlu zone.worst case for apc here is 30%.
Anambra:tony nwoye is going to the senate and therefore will put more efforts in delivering for buhari.he may go back to his thuggisgh ways by enploying thugs and security to defeat pdp.vote buying will be rife.i see him easily winning stella oduah.since in the presidential polls it will be between apc and pdp,buhari will win anambra east,west,ayamelum and oyi.apga wilk secretly side apc or remain neutral because of the beef with peter obi.again anytime apga ally with pdp take advantage to sweep out pdp in the legisative races.uche ekwunife and ngige who needs to convince buhari of his seriousness in succeeding him in 2019 will deliver njikoka,dunukofia,idemili north and south.ekwunife did this for gej in 2015 and will re enact it.andy uba should win ekwusig and his aguata.
Ebonyi:umahi is pro buhari and will largely be neutral allowing ogbonnaya onu who has presidential desires in 2023 and elechi plus the growing muslim population to get 25%.
Enugu:buhari will lose woefully here but pdp wont poll more than 500k.
Abia: buhari best showing here will come from abia north.bende lga which orji kalu comes from has a large voting capacity and will deliver for buhari courtesy ouk.apc lacks strong chieftains in abia central and south and may lose heavily there if apc dont go into a pact with apc.
Rivers: apc is assured of 25% here already
Akwa ibom: with akpabio's defection,apc will get at least 30%.
Cross river:apc hold sway in cross river central.buhari may win here or lose narrowly to pdp.buhari will also get reasonable votes in the south and north.many here dislike pdp and are grateful to buhari for giving them an avalanche of federal appointments,the highest in the south.it is unprecedented.the governor is also pro buhari.if the two apc factions can unite,they will get 25%.
Edo:buhari will win here albeit narrowly.
Bayelsa:buhari will lose here heavily but pdp wont poll more than 300k.
Delta:the ayiri influence in warri,the ogboru and agege influence in the central should give buhari 25% or more.




In summary,the 2019 polls wil be similar to that of 2015.apc will win heavily in nw/ne,pdp winning ss/se.the deciding factors will be the sw/nc in which apc has an edge.yesterday rerun has shown that apc will likely win kogi next year through a combo of money,foodstuffs and violence.apc will also employ it in nasarawa and plateau to record narrow wins.only kwara is safe for pdp but apc should get 30% here.

Jeeesee!! Who is this mugu in his toilet saying Okorocha shall win Orlu senate in 2019?


Okorocha who destroyed or suffocated every development project in Orlu zone, including his destruction of even the Orlu zonal sports stadium dedicated to late Sam Okwaraji. He refused to provide an alternative stadium.

Okorocha who refused to establish any meaningful project in Orlu zone, except his private projects like private university and hotels in his village, but is busy building what he calls Owerri mega city.


Unless Okorocha liquidates everybody in Orlu zone, that's only way for him, to win to represent the zone in the senate.

Efewestern:
APC "might" clear delta Central , and might also get more than 45% vote in Delta state, I don't know about other states, I'm just saying this due to my current observations, was even surprise when a Bus driver was shouting APC apC, lol.. Omo-agege influence in the state is growing very large, and if they give Ogboru ticket, then APC might be able to pull a strong stunt in the state.

Let's see how it's goes, PDP so far hasn't proven to be worthy of our votes, not with the likes Of Saraki and Atiku championing their cause.

In all, these politicians are evil and wicked, those who wants to kill for them should go ahead.

APC cannot win Delta.

The entire North will be voting PDP, the south will be 50/50 between Ijaw and Itsekiri.

Isoko will be 50/50 also.

Urhobo will be 60(APC)/40, thanks to the PDP strong man Ibori. cc Fratermathy.

Once u have tested power, you always want it, it dont matter that it will come to you in 4 years, you want it now.

So, i no go take am personal if Urhobo goes APC but APC cannot win Delta.

hammer6F:


APC cannot win Delta.

The entire North will be voting PDP, the south will be 50/50 between Ijaw and Itsekiri.

Isoko will be 50/50 also.

Urhobo will be 60(APC)/40, thanks to the PDP strong man Ibori. cc Fratermathy.

Once u have tested power, you always want it, it dont matter that it will come to you in 4 years, you want it now.

So, i no go take am personal if Urhobo goes APC but APC cannot win Delta.

We dont need to win delta,we just need 25% there and also to reduce the gap between pdp and apc

senatordave1:
Apc to get 30% of ss/se.i was in a hurry,pardon my grammatical errors

ur worry should be on PDPs votes that will come from northern niheria.


anyway ur a laid poster, it doesn't matter cuz ur just doing ur job...

PrecisionFx:


ur worry should be on PDPs votes that will come from northern niheria.



anyway ur a laid poster, it doesn't matter cuz ur just doing ur job...

No sir.that wont happen.theres a precedence.look at what the opposition got in pdp strongholds between 2003-2015,thats what awaits pdp.you will only get joy in the north central.for you to claim that am paid is highly unintelligent.that means every politics lover here is paid.wake up boy

hammer6F:


APC cannot win Delta.

The entire North will be voting PDP, the south will be 50/50 between Ijaw and Itsekiri.

Isoko will be 50/50 also.

Urhobo will be 60(APC)/40, thanks to the PDP strong man Ibori. cc Fratermathy.

Once u have tested power, you always want it, it dont matter that it will come to you in 4 years, you want it now.

So, i no go take am personal if Urhobo goes APC but APC cannot win Delta.

PDP will hardly get any meaningful vote in Delta Central, The reason Delta Central voted massively for PDP during the last election was because of GEJ , Secondly Most Top politicians irrespective of political party campaigned for GEJ, even Ogboru also campaigned for GEJ even thou he wasn't a Member of PDP, but the next election will be different, if APC plays their card well by giving Ogboru ticket, then The Urhobos will vote massively for them, don't also forget that the Urhobos are also in Delta South.

Itsekiri might vote for APC, you should consider ayeri factor and the fact that Uduagha is planning to decamp to APC,

IJAW population is Delta state is not much, so their vote doesn't really matter.

I don't know much about Delta North, can't say much about their voting pattern.

Like I said earlier, APC will get over 40% vote in Delta if they play their card well.

senatordave1:

No sir.that wont happen.theres a precedence.look at what the opposition got in pdp strongholds between 2003-2015,thats what awaits pdp.you will only get joy in the north central.for you to claim that am paid is highly unintelligent.that means every politics lover here is paid.wake up boy

PDP is back, This is no 2015.

In 2019 pdp will get northern votes wella just like they did prior 2015. They only lost votes in 2015 because the north wanted to get power back at all costs n thus they all decided to leave pdp. Now the north has power n the north will still be the only candidates in 2019 General elections, PDP northerners that left as rapidly coming back.

buhari is only popular in the north wen the candidate is a southerner .

Anyway paid posters won't understand any of these, They have a work to do for the next pay cheque.

Efewestern:


PDP will hardly get any meaningful vote in Delta Central, The reason Delta Central voted massively for PDP during the last election was because of GEJ , Secondly Most Top politicians irrespective of political party campaigned for GEJ, even Ogboru also campaigned for GEJ even thou he wasn't a Member of PDP, but the next election will be different, if APC plays their card well by giving Ogboru ticket, then The Urhobos will vote massively for them, don't also forget that the Urhobos are also in Delta South.

Itsekiri might vote for APC, you should consider ayeri factor and the fact that Uduagha is planning to decamp to APC,

IJAW population is Delta state is not much, so their vote doesn't really matter.

I don't know much about Delta North, can't say much about their voting pattern.

Like I said earlier, APC will get over 40% vote in Delta if they play their card well.

Delta will be divided north and south.

The North will vote PDP.

The Central APC/PDP

The South will be divided APC\PDP.

PDP wins, if rigging is not factored.

PDP have a very strong root in Delta.

Aside power hungry Urhobo, other groups might not be quick to dismiss PDP.

Politics is about interest.

Then again, Ibori is a very strong man that will divide Urhobo votes becos, he knows power leaves north in 4 years.

Plus, Okowa recieved him well, wen he came back from UK.


cc fratermathy

hammer6F:


Delta will be divided north and south.

The North will vote PDP.

The Central APC/PDP

The South will be divided APC\PDP.

PDP wins, if rigging is not factored.

PDP have a very strong root in Delta, aside power hungry Urhobo, other groups might not be quick to dismiss PDP.

Politics is about interest.

Then again, Ibori is a very strong man that will divide Urhobo votes becos, he knows power leaves north in 4 years.

Plus, Okowa recieved him well, wen he came back from UK.

I'm quite surprised you referred to the Urhobos as power hungry, that aside the influence of Ibori in Delta Central is diminishing, even when he was the governor, Ogboru won him, If not for corruption I don't think Ibori has much influence on the Urhobos, save for his oghara people.

You should also consider election rigging which will be the order of the day, ever since, PDP has been rigging, but now APc has mastered the act of rigging, APC also has federal backup, should PDP win Delta, then it's with a very tiny margin.

When rigging is involved, all this analysis no hold water.....both parties will rig next year elections and the smart one wins.

hammer6F:


Delta will be divided north and south.

The North will vote PDP.

The Central APC/PDP

The South will be divided APC\PDP.

PDP wins, if rigging is not factored.

PDP have a very strong root in Delta.

Aside power hungry Urhobo, other groups might not be quick to dismiss PDP.

Politics is about interest.

Then again, Ibori is a very strong man that will divide Urhobo votes becos, he knows power leaves north in 4 years.

Plus, Okowa recieved him well, wen he came back from UK.


cc fratermathy

In summary,buhari will get 30% of delta votes plus ogboru will be governor finally

senatordave1:

In summary,buhari will get 30% of delta votes plus ogboru will be governor finally

Dream dey sweet.

Efewestern:


I'm quite surprised you referred to the Urhobos as power hungry, that aside the influence of Ibori in Delta Central is diminishing, even when he was the governor, Ogboru won him, If not for corruption I don't think Ibori has much influence on the Urhobos, save for his oghara people.

You should also consider election rigging which will be the order of the day, ever since, PDP has been rigging, but now APc has mastered the act of rigging, APC also has federal backup, should PDP win Delta, then it's with a very tiny margin.

It is very important that we consider the present power arrangement in Delta state as commendable.

The destruction of that arrrangement will have far reaching consequences for the progress, stability and peaceful coexistence of all who call themselves Deltans.

Power hungry Urhobo will not be spared of these undesirable effects. In my opinion, it is best to allow all a fair term of office. Greed is a terrible thing, it is wat put Nigeria in this deplorable state of affairs.

cc fratermathy

hammer6F:


Dream dey sweet.

I think your hibernating.from your analysis and that of efe,you agreed with me now your somersaulting.i think you need a hammer to wake you up except your blind

hammer6F:



It is very important that we consider the present power arrangement in Delta state as commendable.

The destruction of that arrrangement will have far reaching consequences for the progress, stability and peaceful coexistence of all who call themselves Deltans.

Power hungry Urhobo will not be spared of these undesirable effects. In my opinion, it is best to allow all a fair term of office. Greed is a terrible thing, it is wat put Nigeria in this deplorable state of affairs.

cc fratermathy

I quite understand where you are driving to, but should we continue like this all in the name of equity?, should we just waste another four years because certain region wants to complete their term?, isn't that what most of you accuse the Northerners of doing?

If you are well equipped with Deltan politics, you would have known that Ogboru has been the man of the people, several times has he been robbed, there was a time He was declared winner only for the then Ibori Government to manipulate the results, when the Urhobos support Ogboru, they are not doing it because they want to dominate, they are doing it because they want a visionary leader, a leader who will listen to the cries of the people, a leader who won't be answerable to any Godfather , someone who understands the plight of the ordinary masses, he is not innocent and perfect, but he is better than what we currently have.

I doubt you know that Ogboru is Also from Anioma, Umukwata in ukwuani local government area, his mother hails from there

Efewestern:


I quite understand where you are driving to, but should we continue like this all in the name of equity?, should we just waste another four years because certain region wants to complete their term?, isn't that what most of you accuse the Northerners of doing?

If you are well equipped with Deltan politics, you would have known that Ogboru has been the man of the people, several times has he been robbed, there was a time He was declared winner only for the then Ibori Government to manipulate the results, when the Urhobos support Ogboru, they are not doing it because they want to dominate, they are doing it because they want a visionary leader, a leader who will listen to the cries of the people, a leader who won't be answerable to any Godfather , someone who understands the plight of the ordinary masses, he is not innocent and perfect, but he is better than what we currently have.

I doubt you know that Ogboru is Also from Anioma, Umukwata in ukwuani local government area, his mother hails from their.

You ve said it all sir.something tells me that ogboru is the next governor.until delta frees itself from ibori's stranglehold,it wont develop.hammer just hates apc and would rather pdp continue in delta than for apc to take charge

Efewestern:


I quite understand where you are driving to, but should we continue like this all in the name of equity?, should we just waste another four years because certain region wants to complete their term?, isn't that what most of you accuse the Northerners of doing?

If you are well equipped with Deltan politics, you would have known that Ogboru has been the man of the people, several times has he been robbed, there was a time He was declared winner only for the then Ibori Government to manipulate the results, when the Urhobos support Ogboru, they are not doing it because they want to dominate, they are doing it because they want a visionary leader, a leader who will listen to the cries of the people, a leader who won't be answerable to any Godfather , someone who understands the plight of the ordinary masses, he is not innocent and perfect, but he is better than what we currently have.

I doubt you know that Ogboru is Also from Anioma, Umukwata in ukwuani local government area, his mother hails from their.

U are making noise...

We did not ask you for Character reference.

That is not relevant here.

Same was said about Ibori, Uduaghan and wat happened?

Okowa has distributed project fairly and deserves to complete his tenure, then power returns to Central Delta.

Disrupting that gentle-manly agreement is not in favour of Urhobo and Delta State in the long run.


cc fratermathy

hammer6F:


U are making noise...

We did not ask you for Character reference.

That is not relevant here.

Same was said about Ibori, Uduaghan and wat happened?

Okowa has distributed project fairly and deserves to complete his tenure, then power returns to Central Delta.

Disrupting that gentle-manly agreement is not in favour of Urhobo and Delta State in the long run.

@Bolded.. lol.. Make I no talk.

I'm not making noise, let's just hope APC don't give Ogboru their ticket, even you self go fear how this election go be, how did you think Omoagege became very popular all of a sudden?.

senatordave1:

You ve said it all sir.something tells me that ogboru is the next governor.until delta frees itself from ibori's stranglehold,it wont develop.hammer just hates apc and would rather pdp continue in delta than for apc to take charge

Definitely, APC just needs to organize their house in the state, too many fractions, Omoagege controlling one fraction while Otega is controlling another fraction.

I have been a silent supporter of Ogboru since 2005, I just hope things works out well for him. We need fresh air.

hammer6F:



It is very important that we consider the present power arrangement in Delta state as commendable.

The destruction of that arrrangement will have far reaching consequences for the progress, stability and peaceful coexistence of all who call themselves Deltans.

Power hungry Urhobo will not be spared of these undesirable effects. In my opinion, it is best to allow all a fair term of office. Greed is a terrible thing, it is wat put Nigeria in this deplorable state of affairs.

cc fratermathy

You really want to drag me into this discussion abi?

Deltans deserve what they get because we don't make good choices and that's the truth. We didn't make good choices in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and I bet we still wouldn't do in 2019. So I really don't care who wins or who doesn't.

fratermathy:


You really want to drag me into this discussion abi?

Deltans deserve what they get because we don't make good choices and that's the truth. We didn't make good choices in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and I bet we still wouldn't do in 2019. So I really don't care who wins or who doesn't.

hahahaha!


At least you talk true small.


Dont worry, we will soon confer you with Chieftaincy title.

Efewestern:



@Bolded.. lol.. Make I no talk.

I'm not making noise, let's just hope APC don't give Ogboru their ticket, even you self go fear how this election go be, how did you think Omoagege became very popular all of a sudden?.

In Nigeria to be popular enter Big Brother House, the rest is history.