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Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote - Politics - Nairaland

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Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 10:00pm On Aug 12, 2018
The four rerun polls held across the country has given signals and pointers on how next year polls will pan out.pdp failed to record at least 25% votes in the rerun polls held in bauchi and katsina something they achieved in 2015 which shows they have regressed and have failed to penetrate apc bases.on the other hand,apc have won several polls held in the ss/se.magnus abe won heavily in rivers denying pdp 25%.apc have not failed to at least record 25% in any staggered election in this zone.
Before 2015,apc never got up to 25% in any polls in the ss/se.even in obudu,rivers,delta national assembly polls in 2015 apc got less than 15% while struggling to win in the north.it clearly shows that apc will get at least 25% in all the states except bayelsa,enugu and maybe abia.
Imo:okorocha is in the forefront to succeed buhari in 2023.he will do anything to deliver imo to buhari in order to brighten his chances.plus,he will be going to the senate to represent orlu zone.worst case for apc here is 30%.
Anambra:tony nwoye is going to the senate and therefore will put more efforts in delivering for buhari.he may go back to his thuggisgh ways by enploying thugs and security to defeat pdp.vote buying will be rife.i see him easily winning stella oduah.since in the presidential polls it will be between apc and pdp,buhari will win anambra east,west,ayamelum and oyi.apga wilk secretly side apc or remain neutral because of the beef with peter obi.again anytime apga ally with pdp take advantage to sweep out pdp in the legisative races.uche ekwunife and ngige who needs to convince buhari of his seriousness in succeeding him in 2019 will deliver njikoka,dunukofia,idemili north and south.ekwunife did this for gej in 2015 and will re enact it.andy uba should win ekwusig and his aguata.
Ebonyi:umahi is pro buhari and will largely be neutral allowing ogbonnaya onu who has presidential desires in 2023 and elechi plus the growing muslim population to get 25%.
Enugu:buhari will lose woefully here but pdp wont poll more than 500k.
Abia: buhari best showing here will come from abia north.bende lga which orji kalu comes from has a large voting capacity and will deliver for buhari courtesy ouk.apc lacks strong chieftains in abia central and south and may lose heavily there if apc dont go into a pact with apc.
Rivers: apc is assured of 25% here already
Akwa ibom: with akpabio's defection,apc will get at least 30%.
Cross river:apc hold sway in cross river central.buhari may win here or lose narrowly to pdp.buhari will also get reasonable votes in the south and north.many here dislike pdp and are grateful to buhari for giving them an avalanche of federal appointments,the highest in the south.it is unprecedented.the governor is also pro buhari.if the two apc factions can unite,they will get 25%.
Edo:buhari will win here albeit narrowly.
Bayelsa:buhari will lose here heavily but pdp wont poll more than 300k.
Delta:the ayiri influence in warri,the ogboru and agege influence in the central should give buhari 25% or more.




In summary,the 2019 polls wil be similar to that of 2015.apc will win heavily in nw/ne,pdp winning ss/se.the deciding factors will be the sw/nc in which apc has an edge.yesterday rerun has shown that apc will likely win kogi next year through a combo of money,foodstuffs and violence.apc will also employ it in nasarawa and plateau to record narrow wins.only kwara is safe for pdp but apc should get 30% here.

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Ever8054: 10:06pm On Aug 12, 2018
hmmmm....your point is..?

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Butterflyle0: 10:09pm On Aug 12, 2018
This analysis is lit. The only adjustment I would have made there is in Akwa ibom. That one is too early to call now especially with the recent defection of Akpabio.

I forsee a 40% voter Percentage for APC from there if not a slight win.

There would be a lot of violence in AKS and I also forsee some arm twisting being done on Udom to make him give ground.

Already they have started dusting his file at efcc

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 10:17pm On Aug 12, 2018
Ever8054:
hmmmm....your point is..?
Apc to get 30% of ss/se.i was in a hurry,pardon my grammatical errors

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Naijalastson(m): 10:35pm On Aug 12, 2018
I laugh in Spanish growing Muslim population ko growing Muslim population ni. Someone will sit in osogbo and claim Muslim population is growing in Ebony state . Please where in Ebony state is Muslim population growing. Well in as much as buhari will win the presidential election due to the voting strength of the north plus alliance with the west. Please be educated on the politics of Nigeria and don't hide under the social media to post all this trash . Be guided

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 11:38pm On Aug 12, 2018
Naijalastson:
I laugh in Spanish growing Muslim population ko growing Muslim population ni. Someone will sit in osogbo and claim Muslim population is growing in Ebony state . Please where in Ebony state is Muslim population growing. Well in as much as buhari will win the presidential election due to the voting strength of the north plus alliance with the west. Please be educated on the politics of Nigeria and don't hide under the social media to post all this trash . Be guided
Muslims are many in afikpo.infact,several persons in this forum claim that 10% of ebonyians are muslims

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Fatherofdragons: 1:41am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:

Muslims are many in afikpo.infact,several persons in this forum claim that 10% of ebonyians are muslims

My friend will u keep quiet, have u been to afikpo before? The Muslims there are Hausa ppl not igbos.

what is wrong with u afonjas ehhh? all this them say them say. I na yi ala?

U so much wish for Islam in igbo land, u crave for it, are a blood sucking demon? we don't want na what is all this?


Take ya time ooo.

16 Likes 4 Shares

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Yankee101: 2:03am On Aug 13, 2018
Your enthusiasm is good. But remember by-elections are not national elections. Resources (security, money, quality of candidates etc) are still concentrated and can be deployed mightly. In general elections you can't readily do that and campaigns are exploited to the fullest.

Let's take Ekiti for example:

"The police have deployed 30,000 operatives, two helicopters and 250 patrol vehicles, including five Armoured Personnel Carriers, for the July 14 governorship election in Ekiti State."

That's a news clip. The police personnel is just 300k plus. That's just 10 states if you want to deploy the same force (It's not even possible cos of other police deployments For other duties etc)


So it's mostly a show of force and intimidation by the govt in power which cannot be replicated on a general election day. Hope you learned a little more today.

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by tomakint: 2:45am On Aug 13, 2018
Fatherofdragons:


My friend will u keep quiet, have u been to afikpo before? The Muslims there are Hausa ppl not igbos.

what is wrong with u afonjas ehhh? all this them say them say. I na yi ala?

U so much wish for Islam in igbo land, u crave for it, are a blood sucking demon? we don't want na what is all this?


Take ya time ooo.

cheesy grin cheesy my brother you really get time to read this guy's figment of warped imaginations.......he is not too sound in his many analyses and he seems to be out of idea on simple gray matters on Nigerian politics. He thought there were elections in those areas.......INEC is simply collaborating with the security forces to work for APC which is common knowledge and he thought they can survive this as 2019 approaches..... grin cheesy cheesy

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by selemempe: 3:02am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:



In summary,the 2019 polls wil be similar to that of 2015.apc will win heavily in nw/ne,pdp winning ss/se.the deciding factors will be the sw/nc in which apc has an edge.yesterday rerun has shown that apc will likely win kogi next year through a combo of money,foodstuffs and violence. apc will also employ it in nasarawa and plateau to record narrow wins.only kwara is safe for pdp but apc should get 30% here.
am not worried about the fact that u say apc will win. Am only worried at the bolded.

So u saints will use violence to win the north central? Wow! Nigerians come and see change!!!

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Nobody: 3:25am On Aug 13, 2018
Wetin concern South East for here?
So you believe that apc will get 25 percent vote in South East?
Maybe in imo but even Ebonyi won't give apc 10 percent make I no come reason Enugu abia anambra matter sef. You already know.
.
Don't worry
... Just observe.

2 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by BabaRamota1980: 3:43am On Aug 13, 2018
Fatherofdragons:


My friend will u keep quiet, have u been to afikpo before? The Muslims there are Hausa ppl not igbos.

what is wrong with u afonjas ehhh? all this them say them say. I na yi ala?

U so much wish for Islam in igbo land, u crave for it, are a blood sucking demon? we don't want na what is all this?


Take ya time ooo.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by selemempe: 4:00am On Aug 13, 2018
BabaRamota1980:
the tins u tell urself to feel better grin

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by nabiz(m): 4:20am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:

Muslims are many in afikpo.infact,several persons in this forum claim that 10% of ebonyians are muslims
come waiting una dey smoke sef. I am from ebonyi state afikpo for that matter. schooled in akanu ibiam federal poly. the total population of Muslim in ebonyi state is 000.1%. the only place you can see a populated Muslim is one small village between afikpo and unwana and they are not even up to 3% in proportion to the small village. I am from Edda in afikpo so stay away from housa propergander

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Eponyeeboz: 7:02am On Aug 13, 2018
Naijalastson:
I laugh in Spanish growing Muslim population ko growing Muslim population ni. Someone will sit in osogbo and claim Muslim population is growing in Ebony state . Please where in Ebony state is Muslim population growing. Well in as much as buhari will win the presidential election due to the voting strength of the north plus alliance with the west. Please be educated on the politics of Nigeria and don't hide under the social media to post all this trash . Be guided

This picture is for my wawa brothers still living in denial.

Tear the poster and use it to clean your eyes, it's a wawu something. grin grin

2 Likes

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Nobody: 7:14am On Aug 13, 2018
I can only laugh in swahili

if elections will be conducted one state at a time, then APC will win all due to incubency and rigging. But it will be different because it will be held simultaneously.

Moreso, the North who are master of cheat and politics will fancy another Northern candidate who will deliver another 8years.

These thieves are the same people all the time, they know the game very well.

Any of Kwankwaso, Tambuwal or Atiku will beat Buhari hands down.

Time will tell.

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by selectedhero(m): 7:22am On Aug 13, 2018
I LIKE TO ANNOUNCE THAT THIS SO CALLED ANALYSIS IS JAUNDICED AND HIGHLY INPROBABLE. IN YOUR RUSH TO BECOME AN ANALYST YOU FORGOT THE RECENT PDP GAINS. HOW ABOUT THE BENUE, SOKOTO, ADAMAWA EFFECT AND THE OTHERS TO COME. MY ADVICE TO YOU IS, 'SAVE YOU DATA, YOU ARE HOLDING ONTO AWEAK STRAW'. PDP IS MAKING INROAD TO BUHARI'S BASE AND THEY ARE ACHIEVING GREAT RESULTS.

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Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Nobody: 7:24am On Aug 13, 2018
Thjis op is an apc man but anyway ur analysis holds no water

Your analysis is null and void and of no effect.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by bakila: 7:30am On Aug 13, 2018
iamkeyz:
Wetin concern South East for here?
So you believe that apc will get 25 percent vote in South East?
Maybe in imo but even Ebonyi won't give apc 10 percent make I no come reason Enugu abia anambra matter sef. You already know.
.
Don't worry
... Just observe.
What was the total votes in those states?
Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 8:14am On Aug 13, 2018
Juliusmalema:
Thjis op is an apc man but anyway ur analysis holds no water

Your analysis is null and void and of no effect.
Are you a court of law? Why not counter it intelligently?

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 8:19am On Aug 13, 2018
selectedhero:
I LIKE TO ANNOUNCE THAT THIS SO CALLED ANALYSIS IS JAUNDICED AND HIGHLY INPROBABLE. IN YOUR RUSH TO BECOME AN ANALYST YOU FORGOT THE RECENT PDP GAINS. HOW ABOUT THE BENUE, SOKOTO, ADAMAWA EFFECT AND THE OTHERS TO COME. MY ADVICE TO YOU IS, 'SAVE YOU DATA, YOU ARE HOLDING ONTO AWEAK STRAW'. PDP IS MAKING INROAD TO BUHARI'S BASE AND THEY ARE ACHIEVING GREAT RESULTS.
Am disappointed in you.defections wont affect buhari's votes in ne/nw.i think your jaundiced and in a hurry.you forget that no matter the defections in abia or enugu,pdp will stil win.same applies to sokoto.apc will likely lose benue but marginally.apc can onlg lose adamawa marginally if pdp fields atiku.if your wise,you will have seen from the bye polls that pdp have not made any inroad into apc bases.its the other way round

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 8:23am On Aug 13, 2018
FrancisDiote:
I can only laugh in swahili

if elections will be conducted one state at a time, then APC will win all due to incubency and rigging. But it will be different because it will be held simultaneously.

Moreso, the North who are master of cheat and politics will fancy another Northern candidate who will deliver another 8years.

These thieves are the same people all the time, they know the game very well.

Any of Kwankwaso, Tambuwal or Atiku will beat Buhari hands down.

Time will tell.
Oga,if pdp are strong,they will win elections whether general or staggered.a simultaneous election will favour apc more

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 8:26am On Aug 13, 2018
tomakint:


cheesy grin cheesy my brother you really get time to read this guy's figment of warped imaginations.......he is not too sound in his many analyses and he seems to be out of idea on simple gray matters on Nigerian politics. He thought there were elections in those areas.......INEC is simply collaborating with the security forces to work for APC which is common knowledge and he thought they can survive this as 2019 approaches..... grin cheesy cheesy
You have never made any reasonable comment.If your wise,you will know that inec will still colLlaborate with apc next year and win

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Nobody: 8:29am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:

Are you a court of law? Why not counter it intelligently?

You should have known I reply intelligently constructive post and not one borne out of personal interest against the masses.....more especially when is now now glare that u are constantly on this analysis trying to favour ur party and appease their ego.

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Nobody: 8:30am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:

Are you a court of law? Why not counter it intelligently?

You should have known I reply intelligently constructive post and not one borne out of personal interest against the masses.....more especially when is now now glare that u are constantly on this analysis trying to favour ur party and appease their ego.

This is not th first time u analysing this....u keep doing that consistently...
Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 8:36am On Aug 13, 2018
Yankee101:
Your enthusiasm is good. But remember by-elections are not national elections. Resources (security, money, quality of candidates etc) are still concentrated and can be deployed mightly. In general elections you can't readily do that and campaigns are exploited to the fullest.

Let's take Ekiti for example:

"The police have deployed 30,000 operatives, two helicopters and 250 patrol vehicles, including five Armoured Personnel Carriers, for the July 14 governorship election in Ekiti State."

That's a news clip. The police personnel is just 300k plus. That's just 10 states if you want to deploy the same force (It's not even possible cos of other police deployments For other duties etc)


So it's mostly a show of force and intimidation by the govt in power which cannot be replicated on a general election day. Hope you learned a little more today.
Apc are not really depending on security or federal might.apc were meant to win whether police were deployed or not.during the general polls,apc won without it so now that there in power,think of what they will do.pdp can only concentrate in ss/se.again,if apc are to utilize the security,it will be mainly in the ss/se.i believe your the one that has ended up learning

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by senatordave1(m): 8:40am On Aug 13, 2018
Juliusmalema:


You should have known I reply intelligently constructive post and not one borne out of personal interest against the masses.....more especially when is now now glare that u are constantly on this analysis trying to favour ur party and appease their ego.

This is not th first time u analysing this....u keep doing that consistently...
If you have observed,i rarely opened threads.it was just of recent when i started after being convimced of apc chances of winning.i have posted something similar to this.but the recent bye-polls proved me right hence this.pdp main hope of winning is the north central and it seems apc have an edge there

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Nobody: 8:45am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:

If you have observed,i rarely opened threads.it was just of recent when i started after being convimced of apc chances of winning.i have posted something similar to this.but the recent bye-polls proved me right hence this.pdp main hope of winning is the north central and it seems apc have an edge there

OK then.
Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by farem: 8:46am On Aug 13, 2018
Naijalastson:
I laugh in Spanish growing Muslim population ko growing Muslim population ni. Someone will sit in osogbo and claim Muslim population is growing in Ebony state . Please where in Ebony state is Muslim population growing. Well in as much as buhari will win the presidential election due to the voting strength of the north plus alliance with the west. Please be educated on the politics of Nigeria and don't hide under the social media to post all this trash . Be guided

What really is your beef with this great analysis when you are arguing with non existent state of EBONY!

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Efewestern: 8:48am On Aug 13, 2018
APC "might" clear delta Central , and might also get more than 45% vote in Delta state, I don't know about other states, I'm just saying this due to my current observations, was even surprise when a Bus driver was shouting APC apC, lol.. Omo-agege influence in the state is growing very large, and if they give Ogboru ticket, then APC might be able to pull a strong stunt in the state.

Let's see how it's goes, PDP so far hasn't proven to be worthy of our votes, not with the likes Of Saraki and Atiku championing their cause.

In all, these politicians are evil and wicked, those who wants to kill for them should go ahead.
Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by izombie(m): 9:10am On Aug 13, 2018
Op don't use senatorial elections to judge the strength of apc in the se/ss. I have said this before that for example, an anambra person may vote for tony nwoye who is in apc but will never vote for buhari during the presidential election. Any apc candidate may win election in the se/ss but buhari can never get up to 5% votes in 2019.

1 Like

Re: Significance Of Yesterday's Polls And How South South And South East May Vote by Turantula(m): 9:17am On Aug 13, 2018
senatordave1:

Muslims are many in afikpo.infact,several persons in this forum claim that 10% of ebonyians are muslims
This my yeloba muslim friend eh!

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