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Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) - Politics - Nairaland

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Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Nobody: 6:33pm On Oct 05, 2018
Why I think the probability of Sanwo-olu (APC) winning Agbaje(PDP) is very high.

1. In my following of the events so far on multiple forum,blogs and direct conversation with people, a strong majority of those with passionate anger over Ambode loss are the same people(Jonathanians and PDP supporters) who were against Ambode(APC) in 2015. I am yet to see a significant number of those who voted Ambode/ APC in 2015 who are very angry over Ambode loss to the extent of saying they wont vote Sanwo-Olu because of that. Some of them who were sympathetic to Ambode (including Ambode himself) tend to have moved on.Thus no major change in voting pattern between 2015 and 2019. In terms of likely total vote cast between APC and PDP only (not total vote cast including the other possible 89 political parties), I expect APC to get at least 55% of the votes which was exactly what they got in 2015.

2. Even though Sanwo-Olu won Ambode because of Tinubu effect, Sanwo-Olu tend to have strong support among the grassroot and passionate APC members. This may translate to higher passion among the grassroots (Thugs) to help him win. In Nigeria when you hear a politician is a grassroot politician, it simply means it has the loyalty of the notorious thugs in that state. Like we hear alot in PortHarcout: "Wike is a grassroot politician." Sanwo-Olu populous agenda (Let the money go round as we develop the state) will further drive thier passion.

3. Sanwo-Olu appear to have better academic qualifications than Agbaje even though in Nigeria, it doesnt matter much considering what happen in Osun state with the "dancing Senator" without waec certificate (You need atleast one E8 or P8 to have waec certificate. Writing Waec exam does not translate to certificate if all you had was absent and F9. You will get a statement of result but you wont get a certificate) .
Agbaje is a graduate pharmacist. But Sanwo- Olu records shows multiple Masters degree including MBA from London Business School. This may appeal to some intellectuals despite Sanwo-Olu being Tinubu's boy. On a lighter note Just for optics, Sanwo-Olu's wife is a Medical doctor. Jimi Agbaje's Wife is a Lawyer/Barrister. Should possible first lady matter in the election, First lady to First lady is a draw with respect to academics. But in terms of street credibility I have no idea.

4. Sanwo Olu and Agbaje are both christians. Religion arguments will not arise.

5. Unlike a candidate from incumbent party who normally finds it hard during election debate because his role is to defend his predecessor, Sanwo-Olu has an advantage which a candidate from incumbent party dont usually have. He doesnt need to defend Ambode since he is also a "Change" candidate like Agbaje. He will brag about the good achievement of Ambode and when it comes to weak part of Ambode govt, he will easily say that is why his party nominated him to make the changes were Ambode is failing. That is a big advantage on his side.

6. Oratory skills for debate and campaign. I have listened to both Agbaje and Sanwo-Olu. Unlike in 2015 when Agbaje was clearly better in oratory and articulation than Ambode, in the case of Sanwo-Olu the difference will not be so clear. Both of them have good oratory skills in thier own unique way. While Agbaje sound more "queens english" , Sanwo-Olu sound more Nigerian with good diction and command of english. It is like the difference between Oby Ezekwesili (Sanwo-Olu) and Kemi Adeosun (Agbaje). In this case is not even that distinct.

7. Igbo/ yoruba dichotomy in Lagos politics. The igbos in Lagos are very likely to become vocal supporters of Agbaje. That is likely to irritate some yorubas who believe Lagos politics should be decided by yorubas. Which may end up cementing Yoruba support for Sanwo-Olu.

8. Igbos in Lagos are less likely to be passionate about voting in 2019 than in 2015 . in 2015, there was passion to vote by the Igbos due to Jonathan effect which gave Agbaje some votes.

9. Money politics will favour Sanwo-Olu. Unlike in 2015 when Agbaja got some federal govt money to fight Ambode money for money, in 2019, Agbaje is very likely to suffer from lack of funds. The major financier of PDP today is Wike of Rivers state. He is more likely to spend money in Imo election where PDP have more hope than Lagos . Imo is also within his PDP axis of influence. And Again he has Amaechi who is coming with federal money to fight him in his state. The story is similar for other money bag PDP governor except Bayelsa State governor who does not seem like someone that is interested in Lagos politics. Free money is limited in PDP right now as they lack access to federal treasury.

10. Strong unity within APC lagos . Preventing Ambode from decamping to any other party cemented the unity and strenght of APC in Lagos state. The way Sanwo-Olu won Ambode with a landslide clearly shows members of APC in Lagos state are fully behind Sanwo-Olu. Newspaper headlines might make it look like it is only Tinubu that stop Ambode, but with the level of cohension within APC Lagos it is clear it is the whole party that wanted Ambode gone. Thus making Sanwo-Olu a popular candidate within APC. The fact that Ambode was rejected despite plea from Buhari and National APC to Tinubu also shows it was beyond just Tinubu to decide Ambode's faith. If it was just Tinubu's affair, what happen in 2011 with Fashola would have happened. Despite Tinubu wanted Fashola gone in 2011, majority of Lagos APC members prevailed on Tinubu to reconsider his stand. In case of Ambode even his commisionners rejected him.

11. INEC effect. PDP has some control of INEC in 2015. Now in 2019 most of INEC control is in the hands of APC.

12. Police and other security will tilt towards Sanwo-Olu unlike in 2015 when it tilt towards Agbaje.

In summary, the strongest point for agbaje is those people with strong anger for Tinubu's political power and clout. From my interactions so far, only few Yorubas see that as enough reason to vote PDP even though they may not be very comfortable with Tinubu's power or influence. Since vote buying is likely to take place, among those demographies that may be strongly anti Tinubu, the poor among them can be bought with 5000 naira or less and a good percentage of the average class (those earning between 100k and 200k per month) can be bought easily with 10,000 naira . Even those earning up to 1million naira a month can sell thier vote for 50,000 naira (This was evident in edo election where vote buyijg price was higher but successful in GRA benin city during edo state governorship election). The comfortable class sell thier vote because they dont see a clear difference between the two major parties that is strong enough for them to reject such a "free money for Hennessy or Human Hair" because of trying to fight for a potential looter. In the voice of Falz the bad guy " This is Nigeria, where everybody is a criminal"

11 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Afamed: 7:11pm On Oct 05, 2018
Another should be because Agbaje has been regular and a loyal customer I.e Customer dada Ni .

4 Likes

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by capitalzero: 7:21pm On Oct 05, 2018
Afamed:
Another should be because Agbaje has been regular and a loyal customer I.e Customer dada Ni .
lol.

It is Eng Funso William that can win apc in Lagos. He has to be resurrected for pdp to win lagos.
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Xander85: 7:25pm On Oct 05, 2018
Forget all this grammar!

If you're this confident, then we should witness a free and fair election in Lagos! Kinda like we saw in the run-off in Osun where you we're just as cocky....sorry, i meant confident!

3 Likes

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by bossvinqualad25(m): 7:37pm On Oct 05, 2018
When u are in need of durable and quality cars u can always count on me to give you the best,for more information,check my signature
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by futuregovernor: 7:41pm On Oct 05, 2018
life2017:
I will give the chance of Jimi Agbaje (PDP) winning Sanwo-olu (APC) only 35% chance.

My reasons are:

1. In my following of the events so far on multiple forum and blogs, a strong majority of those angry over Ambode loss are the same people(Jonathanians and PDP supporters) who were against Ambode in 2015. I am yet to see a reasonable number of those who voted Ambode/ APC in 2015 who are very angry over Ambode loss to the extend of saying they wont vote Sanwo-Olu because of that.

2. Even though Sanwo-Olu won Ambode because of Tinubu effect, Sanwo-Olu tend to have support among the grassroot and passionate APC members. This may translate to higher passion among the grassroots (Thugs) to help him win. In Nigeria when u hear a politician is a grassroot politician it simply means it has the thugs. Like we hear alot in PortHarcout. "Wike is a grassroot politicians."

3. Sanwo-Olu tend to have better academic qualifications than Agbaje. Agbaje records i have seen shows he is a graduate pharmacist. But Sanwo- Olu records shows multiple Masters degree. This may appeal to some intellectuals despite Sanwo-Olu being Tinubu's boy.

4a. Unlike a candidate from incumbent party who normally finds it hard during election debate because his role is to defend his predecessor, in Sanwo-Olu case he has advantage. He will defend the good achievement of Ambode and when it comes to weak part of Ambode govt, he will easily say that is why his party nominated him to make the changes were Ambode is failing. That is a big advantage on his side.

4b. Oratory skills for debate and campaign. I have listened to both Agbaje and Sanwo-Olu. Unlike in 2015 when Agbaje was clearly better in oratory and articulation than Ambode, in the case of Sanwo-Olu the difference will not be so clear. Both of them have good oratory skills in thier own unique way. While Agbaje sound more british with goof command of english, Sanwo-Olu sound more Nigerian with good diction. It is like the difference between Oby Ezekwesili (Sanwo-Olu) and Kemi Adeosun (Agbaje). In this case is not even that distinct.

5. Igbo/ yoruba dichotomy in Lagos politics. The igbos in Lagos are very likely to become vocal supporters of Agbaje. That is likely to irritate some yorubas who believe Lagos politics should be decided by yorubas.

6. Igbos in Lagos are less likely to be passionate about voting in 2019 than in 2015 because of strong Jonathan effect in 2015 which gave Agbaje some votes.

7. Money politics will favour Sanwo-Olu. Unlike in 2015 when Agbaja got some federal govt money, in 2019, Agbaje is very likely to suffer from lack of funds. PDP are more likely to spend money in Imo election where they have more hope than in Lagos. As free money is limited in PDP right now as they lack access to federal tresury.

8. INEC effect. PDP has some control of INEC in 2015. Now in 2019 most of INEC control is in the hands of APC.

9. Police and other security will tilt towards Sanwo-Olu unlike in 2015 when it tilt towards Agbaje.

In summary, the strongest point for agbaje is those people with strong anger for Tinubu political power and clout. From my interactions so far, only few Yorubas see that as enough reason to vote Agbaje.
You no get sense,stupid write up

4 Likes

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by 4laferarri(m): 7:51pm On Oct 05, 2018
Everybody is now forming political analyst....

2 Likes

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by kolaomoobba: 7:53pm On Oct 05, 2018
Good writeup

1 Like

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by CilicMarin: 8:32pm On Oct 05, 2018
lalasticlala this should call for healthy debate.

1 Like

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by mikolo80: 9:00pm On Oct 05, 2018
life2017:
I will give the chance of Jimi Agbaje (PDP) winning Sanwo-olu (APC) only 35% chance.

My reasons are:

1. In my following of the events so far on multiple forum and blogs, a strong majority of those angry over Ambode loss are the same people(Jonathanians and PDP supporters) who were against Ambode in 2015. I am yet to see a reasonable number of those who voted Ambode/ APC in 2015 who are very angry over Ambode loss to the extend of saying they wont vote Sanwo-Olu because of that.

2. Even though Sanwo-Olu won Ambode because of Tinubu effect, Sanwo-Olu tend to have support among the grassroot and passionate APC members. This may translate to higher passion among the grassroots (Thugs) to help him win. In Nigeria when u hear a politician is a grassroot politician it simply means it has the thugs. Like we hear alot in PortHarcout. "Wike is a grassroot politicians."

3. Sanwo-Olu tend to have better academic qualifications than Agbaje. Agbaje records i have seen shows he is a graduate pharmacist. But Sanwo- Olu records shows multiple Masters degree. This may appeal to some intellectuals despite Sanwo-Olu being Tinubu's boy.

4a. Unlike a candidate from incumbent party who normally finds it hard during election debate because his role is to defend his predecessor, in Sanwo-Olu case he has advantage. He will defend the good achievement of Ambode and when it comes to weak part of Ambode govt, he will easily say that is why his party nominated him to make the changes were Ambode is failing. That is a big advantage on his side.

4b. Oratory skills for debate and campaign. I have listened to both Agbaje and Sanwo-Olu. Unlike in 2015 when Agbaje was clearly better in oratory and articulation than Ambode, in the case of Sanwo-Olu the difference will not be so clear. Both of them have good oratory skills in thier own unique way. While Agbaje sound more british with goof command of english, Sanwo-Olu sound more Nigerian with good diction. It is like the difference between Oby Ezekwesili (Sanwo-Olu) and Kemi Adeosun (Agbaje). In this case is not even that distinct.

5. Igbo/ yoruba dichotomy in Lagos politics. The igbos in Lagos are very likely to become vocal supporters of Agbaje. That is likely to irritate some yorubas who believe Lagos politics should be decided by yorubas.

6. Igbos in Lagos are less likely to be passionate about voting in 2019 than in 2015 because of strong Jonathan effect in 2015 which gave Agbaje some votes.

7. Money politics will favour Sanwo-Olu. Unlike in 2015 when Agbaja got some federal govt money, in 2019, Agbaje is very likely to suffer from lack of funds. PDP are more likely to spend money in Imo election where they have more hope than in Lagos. As free money is limited in PDP right now as they lack access to federal tresury.

8. INEC effect. PDP has some control of INEC in 2015. Now in 2019 most of INEC control is in the hands of APC.

9. Police and other security will tilt towards Sanwo-Olu unlike in 2015 when it tilt towards Agbaje.

In summary, the strongest point for agbaje is those people with strong anger for Tinubu political power and clout. From my interactions so far, only few Yorubas see that as enough reason to vote Agbaje.
all dis grammar
agbaje Will lose cos he refuse to spend money like tinubu
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Kingspin(m): 9:07pm On Oct 05, 2018
Birth right sellers
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Kingspin(m): 9:14pm On Oct 05, 2018
Op i guess, If Awo is in PDP i bet he will lose.

Ambode today, sanwo tomorrow next tomorrow will be Nigeria a big joke.

1 Like

Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Toosure70: 9:28pm On Oct 05, 2018
I think agbaje is the present governor of Ipob state,
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Midastorch(m): 10:33pm On Oct 05, 2018
capitalzero:

lol.

It is Eng Funso William that can win apc in Lagos. He has to be resurrected for pdp to win lagos.

You are not a novice when it comes to Lagos politics, exactly my thought this evening....
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Nobody: 11:34pm On Oct 05, 2018
mikolo80:
all dis grammar agbaje Will lose cos he refuse to spend money like tinubu
His being silent since after the last electios may likely haunt him. Most people might think he is not serious.
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Nobody: 6:36am On Oct 06, 2018
mikolo80:
all dis grammar
agbaje Will lose cos he refuse to spend money like tinubu

I didnt say Agbaje will win
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by mikolo80: 4:19pm On Oct 06, 2018
kingkakaone:

His being silent since after the last electios may likely haunt him.
Most people might think he is not serious.
anyone not ready to share money is not serious
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by mikolo80: 6:45pm On Oct 06, 2018
life2017:


I didnt say Agbaje will win
yes you did, if he follows your advice which I am saying, bollocks!!!
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Nobody: 9:18pm On Oct 06, 2018
mikolo80:
anyone not ready to share money is not serious
He doesnt hsve to share
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Nobody: 8:49am On Oct 07, 2018
bossvinqualad25:
When u are in need of durable and quality cars u can always count on me to give you the best,for more information,check my signature
Business man
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by mikolo80: 7:55pm On Oct 07, 2018
life2017:
He doesnt hsve to share
then her not ready to win
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by Nobody: 8:06pm On Oct 07, 2018
mikolo80:
then her not ready to win
lol
Re: Lagos 2019: Why Agbaje(PDP) will likely lose Against Sanwo-Olu (APC) by deomelo: 8:25pm On Oct 07, 2018
7. Igbo/ yoruba dichotomy in Lagos politics. The igbos in Lagos are very likely to become vocal supporters of Agbaje. That is likely to irritate some yorubas who believe Lagos politics should be decided by yorubas. Which may end up cementing Yoruba support for Sanwo-Olu



This is the number 1 reason why Agbaje will now win Agbaje/PDP = ipob.

ipob support is a curse and automatic failure.


Agbaje is DOA.

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