First of all, i want Nigerians to know that, Atiku is a social media friendly personality, having the supports of about 60 to 70 % of the youths (estimation, do not take this serious)

Again, Afenfere as a pan Yoruba political group have given a statement on supporting Atiku if he comes out clear about his restructuring agenda. This negotiation will have a huge effect on SW and of course SS and SE.

To win a presidential election in Nigeria, candidate needs to be a smart politician or one having harmonious influences in the following States
1. Kano 2. Kaduna, 3. Lagos, 4. Portharcourt, and may be Sokoto and Adamawa...

Lets take a look at PDP and APC chances in these listed states;

Kano - Kano state has one of largest concentration of registered voters, PDP has Kwankwaso there, while APC has the governor, the person of Ganduje. APC may be slightly favored in Kano like 55/45 %

Kaduna is a very flexible state featuring with Christians and Muslims. The sitting governor here is for APC, Mr Nasir El Rufai, a numbered one supporter of President Buhari and the christian population there and couple with the fact that the state have been experiencing violence, the votes from such a troubled state will like be divided as such trouble may not favour any sitting government (El Rufai and Buhari), vote in kanduna will be shared again 55/45 %.

In Rivers Portharcourt, Atiku will win Rivers (Porthacourt) with Landslide victory

Lagos - Atiku will win Lagos with a slight margin. A repetition of what happen in 2011.

Take a look at the figure below 2011;
Lagos (Jonathan in 2011) - 1,281,688
(Buhari in 2011) - 189,983
(Ribadu in 2011) - 427,203
(Shekarau in 2011) - 8,941

This time around things will change as APC now have better structure in Lagos. But then, Ambode factor remains a huge turn off for many voters, it may not count if Tinubu plays his card well. Except he (Tinubu) decides to play the politics of 2011. (before you say something, Do not just trust politician when it comes to negotiations for their Interest, especially in Nigeria where politics is defined as no permanent Enemy or friend and also don’t forget no permanent Party interest also, think deep ONLY Permanent INTEREST)

When you combine the votes and margin after contest between Atiku and Buhari in the following areas like NE, NW, SW, Buhari will still have a lead of like 50% Atiku, 40% and the rest parties 10% (Don't forget there will be some ‘goodfellas’ who will insist in contesting despite the forthcoming merger parties)

The Battleground is now the Middle Belt (NC as you may call it), SE (Igbos) and SS (Niger-Delta). In the Middlebelt there are block of votes awaiting Atiku if he plays his Card well. He will take 70% otherwise , he takes a fair share of 60% but surely he cannot lose here…

But.... But, and But, in the SE and SS, because he (Buhari) was and is not a learned politician, he has used the entire 3 years of his tenure to nail himself here (he wasn’t too crafty in handling their issue) ... SE and SS votes are nothing but a huge and positive factor that will usher Uncle Atiku into the golden gate of Aso Rock in 2019.

In Summary;
1. Atiku will claim or share votes in the North East
2. Atiku and PMB will both share the vote in North West equally
3. Atiku will have the larger vote in the Middle belt
4. Buhari will have the larger vote in the South West
5. Atiku can only lead Buhari with more vote if only he can pick his running mate either from South South or South East (South East preferable).

Socio-Political Affairs Analysis for 2019 Presidential election.

Drop your comments for us to learn as students

Cc: Lalasticlala

Anything is better than buhari

Everyone has the right to dream
I have never in my life seen a supporter of Atiku except online

Even if Atiku uses JonaDog as his VP , he won't become the president of Nigeria


Integrity, honesty , when rated are of zero value

talk less of being linked to Malabu Oil scam and Panamaleaks linked him to several loots as well


Unless it becomes a war, Atiku wouldn't win ...

In Buhari's peak moments he beat GEJ who was in his weakest moments with just 2.5 mil now that his rating even in the north has dropped let him forget winning.

Remember that about 90% of non indigens in the north were intimidated not to vote. Some traveled out of the north and so were not eligible to vote those of us who stayed behind didn't go out to vote for fear of attacks. Because in some polling unit you have to show publicly who you voted for.

Some of us non indigens didn't even get the PVC because your name is not Abdullahi or Mohammed. This time a lot of us have PVC. I had to pay a Hausa police man to get mine.

This time around the both candidates are northerners so no need to fear. We'll all go out and vote.

2015 was North vs South, so Buhari had a free pass in the north now it's north vs north. So don't expect too much for him.

Also remember this is the first time a Buhari is contesting with another northerner for northern votes. All those large north east votes he used to get in previous election were sympathy votes. And those guys there are stone agers just tell them you're a Muslim and will islamise Nigeria and that's all.

Let Atiku just start picking his minsters.

Mahsums:
Everyone has the right to dream I have never in my life seen a supporter of Atiku except online

then you are dumb and clown because u don't move around.

Somebody said he has never seen supporters of Atiku except online? Even our last born that plays football has supporters how much more of a former number 2 person of this country?

If Atiku campaigns in NE, Buhari should forget it. Adamawa is suffering from the same insurgency and he would rein on that to declare himself most qualified to win the war.

In NW, there are 40% indigenous Christians and about 10 million Shia moslems and large proportion of non-indigenes, the Caliphate, Kwankwasiyya. Atiku would sweep 40% votes.

In MB, Buhari would be so lucky to get 30% of the votes.

In SW he won with 500k votes at the peak of his popularity. But because of SW hatred for the East, buhari would clear 60% because of large population of SE living in Lagos.

In SE, if PDP fields a SE VP, there is nothing Rochas, OUK and Buhari would campaign with here.

SS had never failed and with the cry of restructuring and resource control in the air, there is nothing APC would campaign with here.

In the end, the lifeless one would be retired for good.

Buhari has won the elections already. Almost all factors point to it.
BTW there is no 50:50 sharing of votes in the North. They are mostly for Buhari. Atiku being perceived as south-east friendly is making his job harder in the North. It's as simple as that. They won't vote a candidate that they perceive as being hijacked by SE.

You are Mouthed .... That's clearly #Atikulated...

IamAtikulate:
If Atiku campaigns in NE, Buhari should forget it. Adamawa is suffering from the same insurgency and he would rein on that to declare himself most qualified to win the war.

In NW, there are 40% indigenous Christians and about 10 million Shia moslems and large proportion of non-indigenes, the Caliphate, Kwankwasiyya. Atiku would sweep 40% votes.

In MB, Buhari would be so lucky to get 30% of the votes.

In SW he won with 500k votes at the peak of his popularity. But because of SW hatred for the East, buhari would clear 60% because of large population of SE living in Lagos.

In SE, if PDP fields a SE VP, there is nothing Rochas, OUK and Buhari would campaign with here.

SS had never failed and with the cry of restructuring and resource control in the air, there is nothing APC would campaign with here.

In the end, the lifeless one would be retired for good.

Mynd44 let take this analysis to the frontpage please. Is this against the rule of the forum?

wideawaken01:
First of all, i want Nigerians to know that, Atiku is a social media friendly personality, having the supports of about 60 to 70 % of the youths (estimation, do not take this serious)

Again, Afenfere as a pan Yoruba political group have given a statement on supporting Atiku if he comes out clear about his restructuring agenda. This negotiation will have a huge effect on SW and of course SS and SE.

To win a presidential election in Nigeria, candidate needs to be a smart politician or one having harmonious influences in the following States
1. Kano 2. Kaduna, 3. Lagos, 4. Portharcourt, and may be Sokoto and Adamawa...

Lets take a look at PDP and APC chances in these listed states;

Kano - Kano state has one of largest concentration of registered voters, PDP has Kwankwaso there, while APC has the governor, the person of Ganduje. APC may be slightly favored in Kano like 55/45 %

Kaduna is a very flexible state featuring with Christians and Muslims. The sitting governor here is for APC, Mr Nasir El Rufai, a numbered one supporter of President Buhari and the christian population there and couple with the fact that the state have been experiencing violence, the votes from such a troubled state will like be divided as such trouble may not favour any sitting government (El Rufai and Buhari), vote in kanduna will be shared again 55/45 %.

In Rivers Portharcourt, Atiku will win Rivers (Porthacourt) with Landslide victory

Lagos - Atiku will win Lagos with a slight margin. A repetition of what happen in 2011.

Take a look at the figure below 2011;
Lagos (Jonathan in 2011) - 1,281,688
(Buhari in 2011) - 189,983
(Ribadu in 2011) - 427,203
(Shekarau in 2011) - 8,941

This time around things will change as APC now have better structure in Lagos. But then, Ambode factor remains a huge turn off for many voters, it may not count if Tinubu plays his card well. Except he (Tinubu) decides to play the politics of 2011. (before you say something, Do not just trust politician when it comes to negotiations for their Interest, especially in Nigeria where politics is defined as no permanent Enemy or friend and also don’t forget no permanent Party interest also, think deep ONLY Permanent INTEREST)

When you combine the votes and margin after contest between Atiku and Buhari in the following areas like NE, NW, SW, Buhari will still have a lead of like 50% Atiku, 40% and the rest parties 10% (Don't forget there will be some ‘goodfellas’ who will insist in contesting despite the forthcoming merger parties)

The Battleground is now the Middle Belt (NC as you may call it), SE (Igbos) and SS (Niger-Delta). In the Middlebelt there are block of votes awaiting Atiku if he plays his Card well. He will take 70% otherwise , he takes a fair share of 60% but surely he cannot lose here…

But.... But, and But, in the SE and SS, because he (Buhari) was and is not a learned politician, he has used the entire 3 years of his tenure to nail himself here (he wasn’t too crafty in handling their issue) ... SE and SS votes are nothing but a huge and positive factor that will usher Uncle Atiku into the golden gate of Aso Rock in 2019.

In Summary;
1. Atiku will claim or share votes in the North East
2. Atiku and PMB will both share the vote in North West equally
3. Atiku will have the larger vote in the Middle belt
4. Buhari will have the larger vote in the South West
5. Atiku can only lead Buhari with more vote if only he can pick his running mate either from South South or South East (South East preferable).

Socio-Political Affairs Analysis for 2019 Presidential election.

Drop your comments for us to learn as students

Cc: Lalasticlala

i disagree here, from alot of journalist i have listen to so far, it is best for atiku to choose from south west. at least it will match the votes for osibanjo, and you know that osinbajo is from south west. after north west that has high rate of pvc collection, south west is next. and i hope you know that there will be high rate of underaged voters in the north western state. example is kano state, ordinary local government election, underaged voters was used in kano state. it will happen in next year polls too.

Both overaged and underaged voters will shared between 'Kwankwanso-led' voters for Atiku and 'Ganduje-led' voters for Buhari

Johnnyessence:
i disagree here, from alot of journalist i have listen to so far, it is best for atiku to choose from south west. at least it will match the votes for osibanjo, and you know that osinbajo is from south west. after north west that has high rate of pvc collection, south west is next. and i hope you know that there will be high rate of underaged voters in the north western state. example is kano state, ordinary local government election, underaged voters was used in kano state. it will happen in next year polls too.

genternity:

then you are dumb and clown because u don't move around.

Tell that to yourself

SternProphet:
Buhari has won the elections already. Almost all factors point to it.
BTW there is no 50:50 sharing of votes in the North. They are mostly for Buhari. Atiku being perceived as south-east friendly is making his job harder in the North. It's as simple as that. They won't vote a candidate that they perceive as being hijacked by SE.

they're so myopic to think Atiku will share votes with buhari in d north
PMB has north in his pocket
Atiku will floor buhari only on Nairaland

Remember an average northerner would want more 8 years of Atiku than the next 4 years of Buhari led APC clueless government