I want to first of all congratulate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar for winning the PDP presidential primaries and also congratulate Mr. Peter Obi for his nomination as his running mate. The truth is that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was the ONLY PDP CANDIDATE with a realistic chance of winning President Buhari. I was particularly happy that Wike and Fayose did not succeed in installing Tambuwal as that would have been too easy for Buhari.

As Atiku's candidacy was confirmed, I watched as all Igbos quickly demanded that the VP candidate be chosen from the SE. I wasn't surprised, however, I was discussing with a friend and I mentioned this was all the Igbos wanted all along. I have read here how Igbos called Yorubas slaves to Fulani muslims and all sorts. Now I wonder, are the Igbos really fighting to be slaves as well? Why are the Igbos fighting to serve Alhaji Atiku Abubakar - a Fulani Muslim - the same thing they accused the Yorubas of doing? Or is there something I am missing? Well it is obvious that the grouse of the Igbos over the last 3.5 years was simply the fact that Jonathan lost. Even the South South had moved on but the Igbos kept on moaning.

For me the Igbos will only be a political force to reckon with when they start playing the politics of inclusion. You cannot continue to cry Biafra on one hand, insult Northerners and call Yorubas their slaves when all you ever dreamed of is what they have. APC won the election in 2015 because they tried to be inclusive. The coalition was form from ACN, CPC, ANPP, APGA and new PDP. Unfortunately, it seems the best the Igbos can ever get in Nigeria is a VP slot because they are too myopic to form a nationalist coalition. I do not see them leading a nationalist coalition because no other tribe will follow them - they can only be followers.

I started by saying Atiku was the only man that could challenge Buhari and what he needs to do now I to build a national coalition. He certainly has the national appeal with friends in all the zones, however, the reality on ground today suggests that Buhari is still the clear favorite to win the election. Let us analize by region.

1. North West - No human beign alive today can defeat Buhari in the North West. Buhari has never lost an election in the North West and he is not about to lose now that he is an incumbent. The reality is the poor and the downtrodden see Atiku as an elitist and Buhari as a herdsman just like them. Kwankwaso and Tambuwal will help Atiku a bit, and the issues with Southern Kaduna people will also help, however, I see Buhari receiving 75% of the votes in the North West. There are 18.9million votes in the North West and these people vote - some even underaged. At the end of the it all I see Buhari winning with a margin of 7million votes over Atiku. This will be a huge deficit for Atiku.

2. North East - North East will be divided. Atiku will win in Adamawa, Taraba and Gombe. I expect him to have comfortable victories in all three states, while Buhari will win in Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. The North East with about 10million votes will be keenly contested and I think it will be split 50:50. Buhari is still very popular in places like Borno and Yobe especially because of the perceived improvement in security and let's not forget that the Governors are APC. So for now, Buhari still has his 7million lead over Atiku.

3. North Central - Another region that will be split. Atiku will win Kwara, Plateau and Benue while Buhari will win Kogi, Niger and Jigawa. Kogi and Niger will be very close but I think Buhari will win. Plateau will be close however, Atiku will carry the day as Buhari has too many unsolved issues. I see Atiku coming out with a very slim margin in the North Central, but nothing to dent the 7million lead Buhari will have in the North West.

4. South East - I have read a lot of people suggesting that Buhari is finished in the South East, now that Atiku has picked Peter Obi... the truth is that Buhari was always finished in the South East and nothing has changed. I do not think that much has changed. The South East was always going to vote Atiku, however, what I think we will see are higher turn outs in the South East. With a voting population of just over 8 million and high turnouts, I see Atiku winning by a margin of 4.5million votes thus reducing Buhari's lead from 7million to 2.5million. The South East is Atiku's primary constituency.

5. South South - Another one of Atiku's primary constituency, however I do not think PDP will get as many votes in the South South as they did in 2015 for three reasons. First is that there is no one from the South South running, therefore they will not be as galvanized to vote as they did in 2015. Second is that APC has made a lot of in-roads in the South South as they have a sitting Governor in Edo, the APC Chairman is from Edo and they have recruited a few powerful people including Uduaghan, Akpabio, Omo-Agege to name a few. These guys will definitely provide some votes to Buhari in 2019. The other thing is that Wike is not as excited anymore and moreover, Donald Duke will steal some votes in Cross Rivers. Someone needs to ask Duke to step down for Atiku. At the end, Atiku will win, but not as much as Jonathan did. I expect Atiku to win with about 2.5million votes effectively cancelling out Bihari's lead.

6. South West - Well as of today, Buhari has the edge for three reasons. All Governors are APC! Yemi Osinbajo is VP and the Bola Tinubu factor. Atiku has a mountain to climb. Truth is that Buhari is not popular in the South West and most people are tired of him. However, it is clear that APC is focused on the South West and PDP hasn't been in the last four years so what will Atiku sell to the South West. Unfortunately Atiku cannot even promise Senate Presidency or House Speaker because Saraki will try to retain his seat at least. So how do you counter all these forces. I see South West going to APC unless Atiku can perform some magic. His needs to focus 75% of his campaign efforts on the South West and make some powerful concessions but I don't know what. But if the election where held today, the South West will vote for APC for those 3 reasons. 6 Governors and a Vice President are a tough ask when there is nothing else to offer them. And APC still has Tinubu. Atiku has his work cut out but it is possible.

Atiku's chances are slim but he has a chance!

As an Igbo man and Biafran supporter, I will be campaigning for my fellow Igbos to boycott the 2019 elections. We Igbos are a great people and we should have outgrown any clamour for any political position in Nigeria

We have had Governor General of Nigeria

We have had ceremonial President

We have had Military head of state

We have had Senate President


So what position is there in Nigeria that can phase Ndigbo?

It is time for us to up our game, forget these useless political position in Nigeria we have held before and start demanding our own country!.

How can we be in Nigeria looking for vice-presidency or the presidency when Botswana of just 1.6 million people, not even the population of Onitsha, is an independent nation?


Igbos! Up your game and ask for your own country!