Donmedrac:
10 out of 15 northerners

You always talk senselessy.the north has a population 100 million while atiku employs 50,000.how does it tally boy?

Sadiqali24:
buhari has never win my state, go and check nasarawa state result history from inec potal

He always got 40%.he will win this time

AtikuDeman:

Please don't tell me nonsense, everyone has felt the ills of this wicked govt whether a northerner, middle belter or southerner and irrespective of the tribe.

Keep lying to yourself, that was how buhari was deceived into going for second term thinking he's still that popular. In 2015, if all those governors didn't defect to APC, buhari would have failed despite contesting against a southerner, but now he has to lock horns with a fellow northerner who has the support of all those who formally defected in 2015 and supported buhari

SS - ATIKU
SE - ATIKU
SW - 40%

NC - ATIKU
NE - 50%
NW - 40%
This is the reality on ground unless you want to lie to yourself

Please give detailed analysis on why you believe this

senatordave1:

He always got 40%.he will win this time

if only others from different place will be allowed to vote in my state then victory for him there is certain, otherwise we shall meet at the pools,buhari will never win nassarawa,mark my words.

Omololu001:
you mean there will be 90-95% turnout for Atiku in those two geopolitical regions, hope you won't cry when the north west also records such turnout, buhari vote in the north west will take care of results from the South east and south South.

There will be record numbers from SE because of Peter Obi n more importantly, tens of millions of Igbos live in SW, SS, NC, NE n NW n they will come out enmass to vote Peter Obi into power.

SS have always hated n voted against Buhari since 2003, Now he has blessed everyone there with poverty so they are coming out enmass to ensure that they vote him out of power.

U claim SW will vote enmass for a failed dullard n same u claims IGBOS n Niger deltans won't vote enmass for their candidate. Keep foooooling ur self .

WhyMoD:
It's simple win for Atiku.
Atiku would garner at least 40% of the total votes in the NE and NW.

The he'd win 60% of NC votes
50% of SW votes
80% of SS votes
95% of SE votes..

Clean win for Atiku

Even great yaradua never got up to 40% in ne/nw,atiku too wont get it,lets say 30%.if atiku gets 60% in nc,buhari will get 60% in sw.
Atiku will get 70% in ss and 80% in se which is a buhari win

PrecisionFx:


There will be record numbers from SE because of Peter Obi n more importantly, tens of millions of Igbos live in SW, SS, NC, NE n NW n they will come out enmass to vote Peter Obi into power.

SS have always hated n voted against Buhari since 2003, Now he has blessed everyone there with poverty so they are coming out enmass to ensure that they vote him out of power.

U claim SW will vote enmass for a failed dullard n same u claims IGBOS n Niger deltans won't vote enmass for their candidate. Keep foooooling ur self .

Atiku cant get more votes in ss/se than gej got in 2015.even the great ojukwu never got suchvotes.the ss people are liberal and will give buari more votes.highest turnout will be 7 million thats if theres no ipob boycott.i can assure you that heavy security presence will be felt in ss/se to scare voters,massive violence,card reader malfunctioning and heavy vote buying there.

Sadiqali24:
if only others from different place will be allowed to vote in my state then victory for him there is certain, otherwise we shall meet at the pools,buhari will never win nassarawa,mark my words.

Most of the top chieftains in nasarawa are now in apc like wadada.maku will now campaign for apga candidate.i see a slim victory in fct and nasarawa for buhari.the only place pdp is sure is benue and plateau

Donmedrac:
The north love buhari but loves power more, they know if buhari wins power return to south..

Atiku have done more than buhari could ever do in northern Nigeria..

Do you know he single handedly funded the chibok girls after they were released? He made no noise about it..

5 out of every 15 northerners work in his company, whether farm, bread or pure water business..

Do you know how many charites he gave north?

You think they will leave him for a man that only raise cows?..

The north will be 50-50 or 60-50 in favour of Atiku..

There's is an agreement between them to give power to north east, they haven't rule since tafawa balewa times even buhari knows about it..

. there will be a massive defection soon just wait and see

Lies

senatordave1:

Even great yaradua never got up to 40% in ne/nw,atiku too wont get it,lets say 30%.if atiku gets 60% in nc,buhari will get 60% in sw.
Atiku will get 70% in ss and 80% in se which is a buhari win

you have no idea how things have changed.

Buhari was being followed before cos people thought he had something upstairs. Now many of those who voted him then wouldn't vote him again even in the North.

Plus do u know who inherited the Shehu Yaradua political structure In the north? It's not his bother Musa Yaradua, it's Atiku. Underestimate Atiku in the North at ur own peril.

And you said Buhari 60% in the SW? Lol. You're clearly not in touch with reality. Have u been watching the opinion polls on YouTube? Watch and see how even the Yorubas have chosen Atiku over Buhari.

And you say Atiku70% in SS? Funny you. He's getting not less than 80%

Lastly did I hear you say Atiku 80% in SE. Who'd give Bubu 20% in the SE? Okorocha? Hahahaha. He'd even fail in IMO state to start with

SternProphet:
Shekarau is wrong. It will be a landslide for Buhari in the North. Why would this be so?. It will be because SE supporters of Atiku will say somethings, do somethings or spread some hate speech that will sink their candidate's chances in the North and SW totally.

All geo political regions in Nigeria are politically savvy except the SE.

I am so very sure if this, I could bet N300k on it.

Also Buhari, is poised to win majority votes in the SS over Atiku. The myth of PDP invicinbility in SS will be broken once and for all.

Wishes are différent from realities, politics is a game of interest not tribe, it is poor and ordinary people like u that is overwhelmed by tribal sentiments, politicians are considering their interest and that is where they sway their vôtres. Keep dreaming!

WhyMoD:
you have no idea how things have changed.

Buhari was being followed before cos people thought he had something upstairs. Now many of those who voted him then wouldn't vote him again even in the North.

Plus do u know who inherited the Shehu Yaradua political structure In the north? It's not his bother Musa Yaradua, it's Atiku. Underestimate Atiku in the North at ur own peril.

And you said Buhari 60% in the SW? Lol. You're clearly not in touch with reality. Have u been watching the opinion polls on YouTube? Watch and see how even the Yorubas have chosen Atiku over Buhari.

And you say Atiku70% in SS? Funny you. He's getting not less than 80%

Lastly did I hear you say Atiku 80% in SE. Who'd give Bubu 20% in the SE? Okorocha? Hahahaha. He'd even fail in IMO state to start with

Yaradua's political structure is caucus politics. We are talking populist vote harvesting. Who was Yaradua even. Buhari's best friend at a time. You guys don't know much. It's like comparing Donald Trump to the structure of the Republican Party in the US. Donald Trump is now more powerful than the Republican Party. In the SE of Nigeria, Nnamdi Kanu is more powerful than PDP and APGA combined. Stop fawning about "structure", the word is meaningless. APC structure almost got disgraced in Osun State just because of sentiment about the elder Adeleke's (ex governor) suspected murder.

To say Buhari was being followed because people thought he had something upstairs reeks of sentiment and it is also very stupid. Buhari is vert intelligent, strategic and principled but populism does not even look at those qualities. Populism looks at the message. The message in the North is AMANA. Corruption free governance targeted at public morality and emancipation of the poor.

It is not educated to use southern eyes to look at the North...or rather you can but the failure at the polls will shock you unnecessarily

AtikuDeman:

Please don't tell me nonsense, everyone has felt the ills of this wicked govt whether a northerner, middle belter or southerner and irrespective of the tribe.

Keep lying to yourself, that was how buhari was deceived into going for second term thinking he's still that popular. In 2015, if all those governors didn't defect to APC, buhari would have failed despite contesting against a southerner, but now he has to lock horns with a fellow northerner who has the support of all those who formally defected in 2015 and supported buhari

SS - ATIKU
SE - ATIKU
SW - 40%

NC - ATIKU
NE - 50%
NW - 40%
This is the reality on ground unless you want to lie to yourself

oga don't be decived shekarau is only speaking for himself not for the entire Nigeria

quote author=WhyMoD post=72555088] It's simple win for Atiku.
Atiku would garner at least 40% of the total votes in the NE and NW.

The he'd win 60% of NC votes
50% of SW votes
80% of SS votes
95% of SE votes..

Clean win for Atiku[/quote]keep deceiving yourself , SW votes is going to be 70-30 to buhari and the NW IS 80-30 and NE is going to be 70-30 too the SE is 90-20 for atiku SS is 60-40 for atiku nNC 55-45 to atiku so do your mathematics

An average Benue man would rather vote for Donald Duke than any of these Hausa/Fulani men.

Omololu001:
saraki has no electoral value outside kwara, which buhari will will.
Buhari will also win in kwankwaso state,atiku and tambuwal state too, they all belong to the Fulani Muslim cow herder man from daura, not far a cow Fulani Muslim cow herder man from Adamawa.

Will you be voting for a Fulani Muslim or you won't vote until you get a referendum?

Direct your question to your cowardly loafers in this picture below.

WhyMoD:
you have no idea how things have changed.

Buhari was being followed before cos people thought he had something upstairs. Now many of those who voted him then wouldn't vote him again even in the North.

Plus do u know who inherited the Shehu Yaradua political structure In the north? It's not his bother Musa Yaradua, it's Atiku. Underestimate Atiku in the North at ur own peril.

And you said Buhari 60% in the SW? Lol. You're clearly not in touch with reality. Have u been watching the opinion polls on YouTube? Watch and see how even the Yorubas have chosen Atiku over Buhari.

And you say Atiku70% in SS? Funny you. He's getting not less than 80%

Lastly did I hear you say Atiku 80% in SE. Who'd give Bubu 20% in the SE? Okorocha? Hahahaha. He'd even fail in IMO state to start with

Always talk sensibly.nigerians are primarily tribalistic.theres no way yorubas will leave osibanjo and vote obi and vice versa,this is africa sir.gej a southerner got 42% in the west.atiku,a northerner will get lower than that certainly.
Buhari got 70 000 in ss/se in 2011 against their son.he got 600,000 in 2015.against a fellow northerner,he will get nothing less than 1.5 million.
Mind you elections here are never free and fair.pdp usually wins it with federal might through rigging and inflation.if its free and fair,you will be shocked at the low turnout of voters here.
Atiku inherited the carcass of yaradua machinery not the full complement sir.you forgot he got just 2 million in 2007 winning no state.yaradua that got no machinery polled higher.
If you have been following political events,you will notice how weak pdp is getting weaker in ss while apc is getting stronger.atiku cant win sir.

kyaagbanairaland:
An average Benue man would rather vote for Donald Duke than any of these Hausa/Fulani men.

Thank you.i foresee low turnout there but buhari will get 25%.infact john ogbor the apga candidate who is from there may win the state

Omololu001:
nah so una talk say he couldn't defeat an incumbent president

as he defeated incumbent na so he will be defeated incumbently

doctokwus:
Even if it was Tambuwal,Buhari would definitely have got more less votes than in 2015,talkless of a more formidable and pocket deep Atiku.
Its only dimwits that don't understand the factors that gave him massive votes against GEJ that would think otherwise.
He got those massive votes in 2015 because of (1)belief GEJ was anti north
(2)propaganda and lies Buhari was a man of impeccable integrity and not corrupt
(3)Arising from 1,ability to get away with significant amounts of rigged votes using different formats (same as GEJ however did in the SS region)
1 and 2 no longer exist and 3 would be cancelled by Atiku's deep pockets.
Buhari may eventually win in Northeast and NorthWest,but with a margin that would be at risk of being overtaken by events in other regions.

Thank you.
There two ways that an incumbent can get re-elected.
Either jealously maintain your support base as it were when you got elected , or increase your support base from what it was when you got elected, or the third option is to intimidate, change the rules halfway and rig like hell.

We all know that Buhari has failed in the most important first two strategies. At the minimum, 30% of the voters who voted for Buhari in 2015 will not vote for him in 2019. Those who voted for him based on loyalty to him and APC would probably vote for him again. However, those that voted for him based on an expectation of performance and his mythical integrity will likely not vote for him in 2019.
Those that didn't vote for him in 2015 will go out of their ways to vote against him in 2019.

Therefore ,the political calculus has turned against Buhari this time.
If Atiku, as I project, can get 30% of the votes in the NE and NW, get 50% in the NC, get 40%-45% in SW, 80% in SS and 90% in the SE, then the calculus assures Atiku of a Victory.

No well minded person would vote Buhari again. That is the thing APC does not know. Nigeria has changed this is not 1992. Most Nigerians would first consider the qualifications of a person before thinking weather he is from their own ethnic group or not. Bye Buhari.
2019 is the year we all get Atikulated.

vedaxcool:
[s][/s]

Shekarua became a governor on the back of PMB same as Kwankwaso who used PMB picture to win a second term. 2019 you will know Nigerians reject thieves and stealing of all hues and shades.

If you are a kano resident, you should have known better.

I detest people who believe everything they read online.

The northern votes is not going be the deciding factor in the forth coming election. Every wise politician here understand that.

The deciding votes are those from South, Lagos which is the the state with highest vote in the south was something like 52:48 in the last election.

Don't forget that 2019 is a different kettle of fish, those tribal and religious sentiment of 2015 will have no part in the play.

This is a battle between two Fulani men.

All northern votes will be shared on equal parts, sokoto still have their son in prison, this guy is a prince. Almost all house of Representatives members in kebbi Lost their Seattle, based of the fact that the presidency does favor their coming back.

Kano is using police to stop people from protesting, while allowing under aged pupils to support the thieving Governor. These guys up North are politically awake than what we have in south.

You can go ahead and cancel this when you are done reading it. Really enjoying it

[s]

chymer:



If you are a kano resident, you should have known better.

I detest people who believe everything they read online.

The northern votes is not going be the deciding factor in the forth coming election. Every wise politician here understand that.

The deciding votes are those from South, Lagos which is the the state with highest vote in the south was something like 52:48 in the last election.

Don't forget that 2019 is a different kettle of fish, those tribal and religious sentiment of 2015 will have no part in the play.

This is a battle between two Fulani men.

All northern votes will be shared on equal parts, sokoto still have their son in prison, this guy is a prince. Almost all house of Representatives members in kebbi Lost their Seattle, based of the fact that the presidency does favor their coming back.

Kano is using police to stop people from protesting, while allowing under aged pupils to support the thieving Governor. These guys up North are politically awake than what we have in south.

You can go ahead and cancel this when you are done reading it. Really enjoying it

[/s]

Here

Omololu001:
saraki has no electoral value outside kwara, which buhari will will.
Buhari will also win in kwankwaso state,atiku and tambuwal state too, they all belong to the Fulani Muslim cow herder man from daura, not far a cow Fulani Muslim cow herder man from Adamawa.

Will you be voting for a Fulani Muslim or you won't vote until you get a referendum?

Dude your english is terrible. Walahi.

Omololu001:
saraki has no electoral value outside kwara, which buhari will will.
Buhari will also win in kwankwaso state,atiku and tambuwal state too, they all belong to the Fulani Muslim cow herder man from daura, not far a cow Fulani Muslim cow herder man from Adamawa.

Will you be voting for a Fulani Muslim or you won't vote until you get a referendum?

Dude your English is terrible. Walahi.

senatordave1:

Atiku cant get more votes in ss/se than gej got in 2015.even the great ojukwu never got suchvotes.the ss people are liberal and will give buari more votes.highest turnout will be 7 million thats if theres no ipob boycott.i can assure you that heavy security presence will be felt in ss/se to scare voters,massive violence,card reader malfunctioning and heavy vote buying there.

"" even the great ojukwu never got suchvotes ""

Ojukwu was not in PDP, He was in an unknown political party. If Ojukwu contested for presidency under PDP, ALL IGBOS dead or alive would vote for him


"" Atiku cant get more votes in ss/se than gej got in 2015 ""

U keep missing the point. basically for the SE n SS, 2019 election isn't about tribe or religion or ethnicity. Its all about voting back the dullardic fossil back to daura, Its the most important issue on the table.

Added to that, VP for PDP is Obi n IGBOS for the first time in 40 years are getting such a chance politically n will come out in record numbers to vote Peter Obi. SE gave GEJ 2.4 million votes on 2015, That will be a childsplay to 2019 because IGBOS will come out this time enmass.

Hatred for buhari, his nepotism, the poverty n bloodletting that accompanied him is enough motivation factor for people in SE n SS to come out to vote him.

Also Buhari has automatically lost 2 - 3 million Shia votes across northern Nigeria, That alone will guarantee his loss.


"". i can assure you that heavy security presence will be felt in ss/se to scare voters,massive violence,card reader malfunctioning and heavy vote buying there.""

I can assure u that in Feb 2019, heavy security can never keep anyone indoors, There won't be any violence "particularly in the SE because no one knows Buhari here n anyone who tries to fight for him will receive the greatest beating of his life.
There's a rule on card reader, if it malfunctions, election goes on without it ...Kano 2015. .

plaetton:

Thank you.
There two ways that an incumbent can get re-elected.
Either jealously maintain your support base as it were when you got elected , or increase your support base from what it was when you got elected, or the third option is to intimidate, change the rules halfway and rig like hell.

We all know that Buhari has failed in the most important first two strategies. At the minimum, 30% of the voters who voted for Buhari in 2015 will not vote for him in 2019. Those who voted for him based on loyalty to him and APC would probably vote for him again. However, those that voted for him based on an expectation of performance and his mythical integrity will likely not vote for him in 2019.
Those that didn't vote for him in 2015 will go out of their ways to vote against him in 2019.

Therefore ,the political calculus has turned against Buhari this time.
If Atiku, as I project, can get 30% of the votes in the NE and NW, get 50% in the NC, get 40%-45% in SW, 80% in SS and 90% in the SE, then the calculus assures Atiku of a Victory.

Atiku will still lose with that based on overall votes.at least 35 million voters will turnout next year,20 million in the north,15 million down south.nw/ne usually have the highest turnout while ss/se records low turnout.15 million are projected to vote in nw/ne.30% is 4 million while buhari gets 11 million.
North central will record 5 million,each 2.5 million going by your 50-50 projection.4 million are projected to vote in the se,90% is 3.6 million.5 million is projected for ss.80% is 4 million.sw should record 6 million votes.40% is 2.4 million,45% is 2.7 million.while buhari gets 3.3 million.
So totally buhari gets 18 million,atiku gets 16.8.thats the worst result buhari will get and he will still win.in reality,buhari will get at least 61% in the west,25% in ss,15% in se 75% in nw.atiku cant win buhari

PrecisionFx:



"" even the great ojukwu never got suchvotes ""

Ojukwu was not in PDP, He was in an unknown political party. If Ojukwu contested for presidency under PDP, ALL IGBOS dead or alive would vote for him


"" Atiku cant get more votes in ss/se than gej got in 2015 ""

U keep missing the point. basically for the SE n SS, 2019 election isn't about tribe or religion or ethnicity. Its all about voting back the dullardic fossil back to daura, Its the most important issue on the table.

Added to that, VP for PDP is Obi n IGBOS for the first time in 40 years are getting such a chance politically n will come out in record numbers to vote Peter Obi. SE gave GEJ 2.4 million votes on 2015, That will be a childsplay to 2019 because IGBOS will come out this time enmass.

Hatred for buhari, his nepotism, the poverty n bloodletting that accompanied him is enough motivation factor for people in SE n SS to come out to vote him.

Also Buhari has automatically lost 2 - 3 million Shia votes across northern Nigeria, That alone will guarantee his loss.


"". i can assure you that heavy security presence will be felt in ss/se to scare voters,massive violence,card reader malfunctioning and heavy vote buying there.""

I can assure u that in Feb 2019, heavy security can never keep anyone indoors, There won't be any violence "particularly in the SE because no one knows Buhari here n anyone who tries to fight for him will receive the greatest beating of his life.
There's a rule on card reader, if it malfunctions, election goes on without it ...Kano 2015. .

No sir,inec new law says no more incident forms,only card readers will be used strictly which will stifle ss/se.the ss/se cant vote atiku more than their son gej,an incumbent.
Shias are not 2-3 million sir.most of them are in zaria,kaduna and they hardly vote.they live a secluded and isolated life and dont partake in social activities.dont depend on them.or we can say since atiku is a muslim,he will lose the support of 2-3 million christians.

I love your analysis

WhyMoD:
you have no idea how things have changed.

Buhari was being followed before cos people thought he had something upstairs. Now many of those who voted him then wouldn't vote him again even in the North.

Plus do u know who inherited the Shehu Yaradua political structure In the north? It's not his bother Musa Yaradua, it's Atiku. Underestimate Atiku in the North at ur own peril.

And you said Buhari 60% in the SW? Lol. You're clearly not in touch with reality. Have u been watching the opinion polls on YouTube? Watch and see how even the Yorubas have chosen Atiku over Buhari.

And you say Atiku70% in SS? Funny you. He's getting not less than 80%

Lastly did I hear you say Atiku 80% in SE. Who'd give Bubu 20% in the SE? Okorocha? Hahahaha. He'd even fail in IMO state to start with

Omololu001:
Just the way Atiku will get fewer votes than what they got in the south in 2015.

Not South, only your region of south (S/west).