From the various permutation, postulations and extrapolation based on the results of 2015 polls, and based on how the Atiku presidential aspiration has gained momentum over the years especially aided by clinching the PDP presidential primaries, coupled with the dwindling fortunes of the incumbent president and the wide spread grass root structures of the PDP in all corners of the nation. What Atiku atleast requires to clinch 2019 polls is by winning atleast 3 states in the North East, 4 states in the Middle belt, 1 state in the North west, atleast 2 states in the South west, and 11 states in the South east and South south. 3+1+4+2+11 = 21.
36 states minus 21 = 15
From my observation based on how things presently are, Atiku may likely pull this off. Which means the prediction of tabloids such as Economist of an Atiku likely winning the 2019 polls is credible enough and should not be dimissed as wishful thinking.
Buhari undoing will be the South east and South south, because his defeat there will be landslide. Even in buhari's stronghold which is the North west atiku will get substantial vote due to north vs north, muslim vs muslim factor, and the both of them are heavy weight in the north. But the same can not be said of the South east and South south which happens to be Atiku's strong hold. As the president has not really done enough to carry that region along. His body language, his rhetorics and actions has shown his disregard for the region and the region will cost him 2019, because he will not be able to pull the same level of result from there as atiku will pull from his strong hold.
From all indication, the North east will be split between both candidates, buhari will win North west and South west, but will lose out in Middle belt, South east and South south.
He laid his political bed, so he should be prepared by whatsoever is the outcome.