Why a “Third Party” Stands No Chance in Nigeria Today

By: Deji Yesufu

In the United States of America the term “third party” stands for any other party besides the two traditional parties in that country. From almost inception in 1790, the USA has been ruled by either the Democratic Party or Republican Party. Very few Nigerians know that there are over a hundred other parties on whose platforms people run for elections in America. Yet the American society appears to have only two parties in each election year. There have been few occasions where people contesting on the platforms of third parties have won elections to legislative houses in America. But no one has ever contested as a “third party” presidential candidate in the USA and won. It is not that they do not try, they just do not win.

Nigeria is fast becoming a similar two party state. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) led the country for sixteen years. Nigerians got tired of their high handedness and booted them out of office in 2015, when the country came together to elect Muhammadu Buhari on the platform of the All Progressive Congress (APC). The APC had launched an ambitious coalition to wrest power from the PDP and their political machination worked; they won. But after close to four years in power, the Nigerian people cannot see much of a difference between the APC and PDP. So that there much is talk for of “third party”, like the Americans have.

Some have suggested that the incompetence of the Buhari’s administration has given a lot of people the false notion that they also can be President. For this reason, there are no less than seventy political parties providing presidential candidates in the forthcoming 2019 elections. It is unprecedented. Many are asking whether these people really do stand a chance of winning, besides the two popular parties – the APC and the PDP. In fact, a lot of political commentators are asking: why are Nigerians not looking the way of the other presidential candidates besides Alhaji Atiku Abubarkar and the incumbent Buhari? I would be using the rest of the essay to enumerate reasons why third parties do not stand a chance in today’s Nigeria.

First, is the disregard for enduring political structures. Whatever else anyone may wish to say about the APC and the PDP, they still have the advantage of having been ruling parties in this country. Where a party has ruled a nation at the centre or at federal level, such a party would of necessity possess enduring structures in all parts of the country. It does not matter what defection might have occurred within this party, those structures will still remain. It is from within such structures that individuals emerge and pursue whatever political ambitions they have. These structures give rise to a very important element of a political party: the emergence of candidates from well organized primaries. While the APC quite understandably produced a consensus candidate in the person of the incumbent President, Buhari, the PDP went through a gruelling primaries. Political heavy weights came together and tested their popularity first within that party before one person emerged from their ranks.

This is no mean task.

If we are to look at most third parties at the moment, we see a situation where candidates emerge from questionable primaries. Some of them are merely unopposed because the individual chosen is the all in all in his party. What is common to almost all of them is that there were really no genuine test of their own popularity within their own parties. If these persons cannot hold structure in little parties, they cannot hold structures around the country that would deliver at the poles. The APC and PDP still have it to their credit that they were able to produce presidential candidates from proper primaries.

The second reason why third party presidential candidates do not stand a chance in the February poles is because non of them have a hold in the largest voting blocs in the country. The first and third largest voting blocs in the country are the North West and the North Eastern parts of the country respectively. Buhari is from the former, while Atiku is from the latter. Political pundits posit that close to half of the casted ballots will come from these political blocks in the country. If Buhari were to win the North West and Atiku the North East, what would be left for the third party candidates? In fact political pundits believe that all the third party candidates are not likely to have more than a million votes combined. These are the realities on ground and these are the things these gentlemen and women should be considering when they take up the challenge of contesting against established parties.

Third, is the issue of lack of cohesion among third party aspirants. This, more than anything else, has proven that non of the fellows who are running for President, besides the APC and PDP, are serious about winning the elections. The only way the APC could challenge the PDP was by entering into coalition with others. This is a point that all the aspirants in third parties have stressed, yet none of the over 70 candidates is willing to step down for the other. If Nigerians are genuinely tired of the APC and PDP, it should occur to these fellows that there is a viable third alternative that Nigerians are looking for. But when the third alternative is splintered to seventy varying parts, it would be politically suicidal to cast a vote for any of them. In fact it would amount to a waste of voting effort. The third parties should have long entered a coalition. They should have run something close to a primaries and agreed on one candidate. If they cannot do such a thing in the microcosm of their political sphere, they have not shown that they capacity to rule a vast country like Nigeria.

Fourth, is the lack of resources. To win elections in Nigeria, one must have money. And it is not necessarily because Nigerian politics is so money centred, it is because this country is so large there is no one person who has all the resources to foot a political campaign alone. What established political parties do is that they get individual in various political blocs in the country – from state to ward levels – and have these fellows foot the bill of the campaigns in those places. When they come to power, these people are compensated with political offices. But when one is in a third party that has no structure on ground, except say at state capitals, that person is getting ready for a loss.

The last reason why I am convinced third parties would loose in the coming election is that there are essentially no difference between the individuals in third parties and those in established parties. There is a seeming Nigerian factor present in every person in this country that sees political office as an opportunity to make gain for themselves and not to serve people. I am not convinced by the seeming altruistic motives of some third party candidates who brand themselves as a new breed without any stain. The fact remains that the heart of all men are desperately wicked and the heart of an average Nigerian is even more so. In relation to third parties, Nigerians see that the devil they know is better than the angel they do not know.

In conclusion, let me suggest to third party candidates to consider carefully the 2023 elections. They should work hard towards getting a consensus candidates among themselves and they should all unselfishly support this person. Nothing short of this would produce a challenge to the PDP and the APC. Until that happens, we are left with the two traditional parties in the country. We are left with this option not because they are the brightest and the best but because they are the most enduring.

Deji Yesufu is the author of the book Victor Banjo. He can be reached on newdejix@gmail.com

https://mouthpiece.com.ng/why-a-third-party-stands-no-chance-in-nigeria-today/

Nigerians are fast becoming the most stupid people i know.

Sowore, moghalu, Donald duke, fela durotoye can't win a senatorial election in Nigeria even when combined together...


Atiku will beat sowore even in his polling unit this February.

Their only supporters are lazy youths on social media that won't even vote, they don't even have voters card

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It's not rocket science to know that these guys are only building their political CV.

post=75060182:
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buhari stand no chance against Atiku

They would have done better than the lifeless one but we are held back by backward thinking people.

The only 100%chance president we have here now is Alh Muhammad Buhari nothing can change that

Realities are created by humans, and men are masters of their fate.. If you beliv you can then we all can. It's our national duty to change the status quo, by retiring the old politicians both in APC AND PDP. I m firmly behind Prof Kingsley Moghalu as the president

Unfortunately the guy is right

What even makes it more painful is that Nigerians grumble all day about hardship, and about PDP and APC, but on election day, they go back to APC and PDP.

Better the devil they know than the angelic beings they do not know.

Another thing. If Moghalu, Sowore or Durotoye win, the National Assembly won't let them make any difference at all. They would be frustrated out.

This is it!!

People act like apc and pdp supporters are machine, they are human being if information gets to them that there is a credible alternative they will gladly withdraw their services from them.

But then again this is Nigeria every thing defies common sense.

TRUTH.

the 3rd force is building momentum towards 2023.... let try it

Add Atiku please

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Bia ds boi don't you have suya to fry?

Why USA? Why not UK that had a 2 dominant party and a 3rd force (liberal) piercing the stronghold? A 3rd force can and will emerge. ..

Socceraba:
0 9 0 8 6 1 5 1 29 9 whtsapp

weyrey ni e shaaaaaa!
idiotic mad man!!!

Agata01:
See below

are you OK?
you have millions already!!!!!
roll it over!
weyrey man!!

Nigerians are fast becoming the most stupid people i know.


Speak for yourself that your are fast becoming the most stupid being in nigeria.

Only fools wouldn't know these guys stand no chance of winning their polling unit not to talk of their ward or local government.

You have had strong political platform before you can win any presidential election in the world.
The political party under which you are contesting also speaks volume of your chances.

Binikingdowm:
Sowore, moghalu, Donald duke, fela durotoye can't win a senatorial election in Nigeria even when combined together...


Atiku will beat sowore even in his polling unit this February.

Their only supporters are lazy youths on social media that won't even vote, they don't even have voters card

You are too lazy to even know that Donald Duke was a former governor for 8 years... I can't argue with u since u don't know the simplest of info

Been saying this since
Oby has seen the bigger picture and stepped down
I would like her,fela and kingsley to be included in atiku's incoming govt and also for the restructing to be implemented
and other BMC crew shld atikulate
Cc immhotep velocity25 deomelo sarrki justiceleague1

We needed this 'Third Force' since 2017. Good morning to Oby Ezekwesili.

#SOWORE #SOWORE SOWOOOOOOOOREEEEEEE. SOWOREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

ItzBIM:
People act like apc and pdp supporters are machine, they are human being if information gets to them that there is a credible alternative they will gladly withdraw their services from them.

But then again this is Nigeria every thing defies common sense.

It is write up like this one that they are using to hoodwink them. They intentionally shutting out the young candidates, so that the people will not be liberated. Yesterday night while sowore was on NTA live, channels refused to broadcast the event despite doing so with Buhari last week on same program and they only have their self to blame, there was huge viewership despite the bad audio and picture from NTA... Information is power