I created this thread in March 2015, see the link and several responses here:

https://www.nairaland.com/2203244/data-analysis-election...my-objective-take

Some people argued that I was myopic and all sort of stuffs. Fast forward to 2019 lets look at what we have on our hands in two weeks time.

The distribution of registered voters across states has been released by INEC but I was a little bothered the corresponding number of PVCs collected should have been shown as well. I however want to gauge the perception of Nigerians and look at how the two front runners stand in two weeks time i.e. PMB and ATIKU across the political zones and FCT.

Key Factors
1. The Performance of the APC: The APC has struggled with the economy and that remains the grey areas in the party's performance. Increase in petrol fuel price from 97 to 145 naira, lost of jobs in the financial system and very low price of crude oil commodity market plus negative image of a corrupt system led to lost of growth and brought in recession not forgetting the exchange rate.
2. The followers of both candidates and their running mates
3. Religion and ethnicity: These will play major roles in two weeks time and will be seriously influential
4. Voters turn out where and by what number
5. Party structure on the ground


NORTHWEST

Here, ethnicity and religion will play key roles. PDP has some big wigs in Sokoto, Jigawa and Kano but apart from Sokoto, governors from these states are of the APC. PMB enjoys cult personality in this zone and he stands to take at least 70% of whatever votes is cast. Talking about the economy do not win votes here as the army of voters are largely less concerned about such. Atiku will do well in Southern Kaduna and get some good votes in Jigawa.Turnout here will exceed 60%

NORTHEAST

The same pattern will follow north west except for Adamawa where I expect Atiku to win by 55-45 but I expect the turn out to be huge in this part of the country above 50%. BUHARI will win this zone by like 65% to 35%.

MIDDLE BELT & FCT

The FCT and Nasarawa are too close to call, so i give them 50-50 chance. These two states have armies of people directly affected by the economic performance and also armies of pr Buhari voters. Atiku will most likely win in Benue by over 65%, Plateau by over 52%, Taraba by over 68% while Buhari will win in Kogi, Kwara, and Niger . Turn out where determines who get majority votes here.


SOUTHWEST
PMB will most likely win this region by 60%-40%. Atiku will do fairly in Lagos, I expect him to poll up to 45% of the protest votes on the economy.His biggest win will most likely come from Oyo state while Atiku's performance in Ogun State will be fair say 35%. I expect 52% turn out rates. Etnicity will play a major role as PDP has no clear program for the region except for the post of SGF will is quite hard to sell and permutations on 2023 is key factor here.


SOUTHEAST
This region is locked down for Atiku. =Permutations on 2023 is key factor here as well and Peter Obi will be seen as a factor. Atiku will win this region by at least 80%. Turn out is expected to be at least 45%.

SOUTH-SOUTH

PMB will win in Edo state but Atiku will win in all other states but, it may be a 65%-35% sharing of cast votes with turn out at about 48%. Unlike 2015 when GEJ contested and it was a moral issue for the region to support him, there is apathy based on those contesting and Akwa Ibom is to watch here.

If you look at all these factors, it looks more likely for a PMB second term.
I welcome opinions and other contributions, thank you.

Outstanding analysis

[s][/s]

mandarin:
I [s]created this thread in March 2015, see the link and several responses here:

https://www.nairaland.com/2203244/data-analysis-election...my-objective-take

Some people argued that I was myopic and all sort of stuffs. Fast forward to 2019 lets look at what we have on our hands in two weeks time.

The distribution of registered voters across states has been released by INEC but I was a little bothered the corresponding number of PVCs collected should have been shown as well. I however want to gauge the perception of Nigerians and look at how the two front runners stand in two weeks time i.e. PMB and ATIKU across the political zones and FCT.

Key Factors
1. The Performance of the APC: The APC has struggled with the economy and that remains the grey areas in the party's performance. Increase in petrol fuel price from 97 to 145 naira, lost of jobs in the financial system and very low price of crude oil commodity market plus negative image of a corrupt system led to lost of growth and brought in recession not forgetting the exchange rate.
2. The followers of both candidates and their running mates
3. Religion and ethnicity: These will play major roles in two weeks time and will be seriously influential
4. Voters turn out where and by what number
5. Party structure on the ground


NORTHWEST

Here, ethnicity and religion will play key roles. PDP has some big wigs in Sokoto, Jigawa and Kano but apart from Sokoto, governors from these states are of the APC. PMB enjoys cult personality in this zone and he stands to take at least 70% of whatever votes is cast. Talking about the economy do not win votes here as the army of voters are largely less concerned about such. Atiku will do well in Southern Kaduna and get some good votes in Jigawa.Turnout here will exceed 60%

NORTHEAST

The same pattern will follow north west except for Adamawa where I expect Atiku to win by 55-45 but I expect the turn out to be huge in this part of the country above 50%. BUHARI will win this zone by like 65% to 35%.

MIDDLE BELT & FCT

The FCT and Nasarawa are too close to call, so i give them 50-50 chance. These two states have armies of people directly affected by the economic performance and also armies of pr Buhari voters. Atiku will most likely win in Benue by over 65%, Plateau by over 52%, Taraba by over 68% while Buhari will win in Kogi, Kwara, and Niger . Turn out where determines who get majority votes here.


SOUTHWEST
PMB will most likely win this region by 60%-40%. Atiku will do fairly in Lagos, I expect him to poll up to 45% of the protest votes on the economy.His biggest win will most likely come from Oyo state while Atiku's performance in Ogun State will be fair say 35%. I expect 52% turn out rates. Etnicity will play a major role as PDP has no clear program for the region except for the post of SGF will is quite hard to sell and permutations on 2023 is key factor here.


SOUTHEAST
This region is locked down for Atiku. =Permutations on 2023 is key factor here as well and Peter Obi will be seen as a factor. Atiku will win this region by at least 80%. Turn out is expected to be at least 45%.

SOUTH-SOUTH

PMB will win in Edo state but Atiku will win in all other states but, it may be a 65%-35% sharing of cast votes with turn out at about 48%. Unlike 2015 when GEJ contested and it was a moral issue for the region to support him, there is apathy based on those contesting and Akwa Ibom is to watch here.

If you look at all these factors, it looks more likely for a PMB second term.
I welcome opinions and other contributions, thank you.

[/s]

Perfect analysis. The Children of hate would say otherwise

Which Edo state

Hmmmm dreaming is free continue

middle belt ain't 50:50 bt 70:30 the dynamics has changed. GMB was so popular wen he was a political virgin bt now he been disvirgined and proven to be barren. mind u the greatest opposition to GMB comes from d MB following endles killings.
turn out in d SE will hit 70%. GMB sud concentrate his efforts in the north east and west cos I don't see him getting 25% of the votes in SE and SS expect Edo state

I agree

Taraba is NE not middlebelt/North central

NW all 7 states vote Buhari
NE Buhari 4(Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe) Atiku 1(Taraba), Adamawa too close to call
NC Benue, Plateau goes to Atiku, Niger Kogi goes to Buhari. Nasarawa, Kwara too close to call
SW 6 States Buhari
SE 5 states Atiku
SS 5 states Atiku Edo too close to call

So
outright win for Buhari are 7 + 4 + 2 + 6 = 19
Outright wins for Atiku 1 + 2 + 5 + 5 = 13

Too close to call = 1 + 2 + 1 = 4

Even if we cede all the too close to call to Atiku, there is still no way he wins as its 19 states to 17

If you have a factory or you intend to set up your juice/ yoghurt factory and you need a resource man to formulate your drinks for you, WhatsApp this line 08020784896.

Those giving APc 25 percent in Delta and akwa ibom will be surprised with the results from these States. It's a close contest there.
Also the failure of Ikpeazu in Abia will cause huge apathy in Abia. Abia may not return more than 500k votes from which pmb will take over 40 percent. Supporters of Apga and APc in Abia acknowledge that the fastest way to send Ikpeazu home is to keep Atiku away from Aso rock by all means

This is the result sheet of 2015 elections

http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/summary-of-results.pdf

Do you know that if you remove 198, 248 votes that Buhari got in SE and add to Jonathan’s 2,464,906.00 votes, that Buhari still won the
election 2,175,263 votes? Also, if you take the entire SS votes (418,590) to Buhari and give to Jonathan in addition to the entire SE votes to going to Jonathan, Buhari still won the election by 1,338,083 votes. What this means is that with the entire SS and SE voting Jonathan, Buhari would have still won the election by over 1.3m votes.
Okay, you think Jonathan got no votes in the North? You are wrong. In NC he got 1,715,818 votes, in NW he got 1,339,709 votes and in NE he got 796,588 votes. So he got a total of 3,852,115 in the North and if those entire votes are given to PMB, he would have won the
election with over 10m votes (19,277,036 vs. 9,001,047).
Okay, you think the voting pattern would change this time as two Hausa-Fulani and Muslim brothers are running? I think so too. But the first point is that you that is NOT a Northerner should know that your vote is insignificant. The North and to some extent the SW will determine who will always be the President as far as politics remains a game of number. Okay, to that your thinking that the voting trend would change. Yes, Buhari will never, I repeat will
never get only 7% of the votes cast in SE again.
never! They can’t write results again. I am confident of 35% at least. And in SS, I am confident of 35% at least. 55% at least in SW. And in the North, Jonathan got 24% of the votes in 2015, I am confident that atiku cannot get more than 35% of the votes cast in Northern Nigeria. And in absolute figures, Buhari would win by over 3m.
Anyway, the main issue here is that our votes in SE and SS can’t change anything if PMB gets 70% or more votes in the North and 55% or more votes in SW.
Please stop making noise if you don’t have electoral value.

@jones4190 you are correct. Voters turn out matters a lot and turn out will be plagued by IPOB in Southeast, Peter Obi factor, Osinbajo factor and apathy in the Niger Delta. The pro Buhari mandate was tested in Lagos during last direct primary election but I feel it wont be that overwhelming in the real election.
I feel the Yoruba see this election as a battle of wits but the Igbo see it as a moral demand. The number of people registered to vote in the south is small compared to the north, it is not a true reflection of the population but for the fact that politicians in the south do not work on getting people get their PVC. Lagos, Ogun and Oyo can double their numbers as the number of registration centers are few, people go to offices etc.

If the turn out is even all over Nigeria PMB wins.

raumdeuter:
I agree

Taraba is NE not middlebelt/North central

NW all 7 states vote Buhari
NE Buhari 4(Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe) Atiku 1(Taraba), Adamawa too close to call
NC Benue, Plateau goes to Atiku, Niger Kogi goes to Buhari. Nasarawa, Kwara too close to call
SW 6 States Buhari
SE 5 states Atiku
SS 5 states Atiku Edo too close to call

So
outright win for Buhari are 7 + 4 + 2 + 6 = 19
Outright wins for Atiku 1 + 2 + 5 + 5 = 13

Too close to call = 1 + 2 + 1 = 4

Even if we cede all the too close to call to Atiku, there is still no way he wins as its 19 states to 17

Egbon Dayokanu, Kwara is not too close. PDP will be beaten blue black in that state.. I can bet it that if Saraki manage to win his polling booth, he cannot win the ward.. Walahi I am so sure..

PDP will be completely destroyed in Kwara state

slivertongue:
middle belt ain't 50:50 bt 70:30 the dynamics has changed. GMB was so popular wen he was a political virgin bt now he been disvirgined and proven to be barren. mind u the greatest opposition to GMB comes from d MB following endles killings.
turn out in d SE will hit 70%. GMB sud concentrate his efforts in the north east and west cos I don't see him getting 25% of the votes in SE and SS expect Edo state

This is the problem with you people.
You're never objective,I just wonder d kind of people you Atiku supporters are.
We struggle in Nigeria to get 50% and someone is here calling 70%.
Even the northerners who turn out more for election can't do 56%.,is it d ibos who don't vote that will do 70%?
The southeast usually has d least voters turn out and nothing will change dis time.

raumdeuter:
I agree

Taraba is NE not middlebelt/North central

NW all 7 states vote Buhari
NE Buhari 4(Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe) Atiku 1(Taraba), Adamawa too close to call
NC Benue, Plateau goes to Atiku, Niger Kogi goes to Buhari. Nasarawa, Kwara too close to call
SW 6 States Buhari
SE 5 states Atiku
SS 5 states Atiku Edo too close to call

So
outright win for Buhari are 7 + 4 + 2 + 6 = 19
Outright wins for Atiku 1 + 2 + 5 + 5 = 13

Too close to call = 1 + 2 + 1 = 4

Even if we cede all the too close to call to Atiku, there is still no way he wins as its 19 states to 17

This one looks very dispassionate.

OAUTemitayo:

Egbon Dayokanu, Kwara is not too close. PDP will be beaten blue black in that state.. I can bet it that if Saraki manage to win his polling booth, he cannot win the ward.. Walahi I am so sure..

PDP will be completely destroyed in Kwara state

I am not on the ground and I don't think it will be easy to displace a dynasty of 30yrs just like that

I think buhari will most likely win Akwa ibom.

Indispensable85:


This is the problem with you people.
You're never objective,I just wonder d kind of people you Atiku supporters are.
We struggle in Nigeria to get 50% and someone is here calling 70%.
Even the northerners who turn out more for election can't do 56%.,is it d ibos who don't vote that will do 70%?
The southeast usually has d least voters turn out and nothing will change dis time.

I am talking of 70% of those who have collected their PVC not registered voters

raumdeuter:


I am not on the ground and I don't think it will be easy to displace a dynasty of 30yrs just like that

Just bookmark this page..
He will be thoroughly trounced.

raumdeuter:
I agree

Taraba is NE not middlebelt/North central

NW all 7 states vote Buhari
NE Buhari 4(Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Gombe) Atiku 1(Taraba), Adamawa too close to call
NC Benue, Plateau goes to Atiku, Niger Kogi goes to Buhari. Nasarawa, Kwara too close to call
SW 6 States Buhari
SE 5 states Atiku
SS 5 states Atiku Edo too close to call

So
outright win for Buhari are 7 + 4 + 2 + 6 = 19
Outright wins for Atiku 1 + 2 + 5 + 5 = 13

Too close to call = 1 + 2 + 1 = 4

Even if we cede all the too close to call to Atiku, there is still no way he wins as its 19 states to 17

Well Atiku to win 11 states of SS/SE, 2states of NE and 5 states of NC. 3 states in SW close to call, 4 states in NW close to call and 2 states in NE close to call.

Buhari to win 3 states in NW, 2 states NE, 3states SW and 1 state NC.

Atiku : 18 states
Buhari: 9states
Close to call: 9

Indispensable85:
I think buhari will most likely win Akwa ibom.

Stop thinking Atiku will trounce Buhari in akwa ibom.

OAUTemitayo:

Egbon Dayokanu, Kwara is not too close. PDP will be beaten blue black in that state.. I can bet it that if Saraki manage to win his polling booth, he cannot win the ward.. Walahi I am so sure..

PDP will be completely destroyed in Kwara state

Be deceiving yourself. Pdp will win kwara with not less than 150k votes.

Guzel:
Those giving APc 25 percent in Delta and akwa ibom will be surprised with the results from these States. It's a close contest there.
Also the failure of Ikpeazu in Abia will cause huge apathy in Abia. Abia may not return more than 500k votes from which pmb will take over 40 percent. Supporters of Apga and APc in Abia acknowledge that the fastest way to send Ikpeazu home is to keep Atiku away from Aso rock by all means

99% of igbos know buhari must go!

I just scrolled down to south south and saw buhari will win Edo state, I stopped reading.

Take the from a guy who has spent his life in Edo state, buhari can never ever win here this 2019..

You'll see what I'm talking about in less than 2 weeks

Mschewww it's same guy with senatordave1

Nonsense don't know why I click here seff

slivertongue:


I am talking of 70% of those who have collected their PVC not registered voters

My guy,that one is even more difficult.
If we are struggling with 50% of registered voters turn out,how then can we now have 70% of people with pvc turning out to vote?
Impossible! Remember total registered voters include those without pvc, how then can we possibly have those with pvc turning out 70%. That's a pipe dream,my guy.let's try and be realistic here.

paq1:

Stop thinking Atiku will trounce Buhari in akwa ibom.

See you in 2wks time.

Elections are not won on nairaland.
I'm throwing this question out to all pdp/Atiku supporters.
I want you guys to tell me which state in this country can Atiku score 1million votes?

Indispensable85:


See you in 2wks time.

Are you for buhari or Atiku?

Indispensable85:
Elections are not won on nairaland.
I'm throwing this question out to all pdp/Atiku supporters.
I want you guys to tell me which state in this country can Atiku score 1million votes?

Kano,lagos,delta,Rivers,akwa ibom.

Name the states buhari will get 1million.