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INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian - Politics - Nairaland

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INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by 4Play(m): 3:30pm On Feb 15, 2019
The number of new voters registered in Nigeria since January 2018 has increased by almost exactly the same percentage in each of its states, according to documents seen and analysed by the Guardian, raising fears that the results of Saturday’s presidential election could be open to mass rigging.

Voters in Africa’s biggest country by population will choose between the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, his main rival Atiku Abubakar, and more than 70 other candidates.

Since the last presidential election in 2015, many more people have become eligible to vote, and many others have registered to take part in the polls for the first time. About 10 million new voters signed up between January 2018 and early 2019 – according to data released by the electoral commission (INEC) – twice the number that signed up in the first nine months of registration, between April 2017 and January 2018.

But analysis of the data for each of the country’s 36 states and its capital shows that INEC has increased the number of new registered votersby almost exactly the same percentage across all states. The correlation is a statistical impossibility and does not reflect Nigeria’s demographic changes, according to data analysts working with the Guardian. Additional data seen by the Guardian also shows irregularities in registration for the 2015 election, until now considered to have been free and fair.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/15/revealed-nigerian-voter-data-is-statistically-impossible

2 Likes

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by NaijaRoyalty(m): 3:33pm On Feb 15, 2019
The outcome of Saturday election will leave so many APcheat members shattered .

Wait for it cool

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by mozel247: 3:42pm On Feb 15, 2019
2015 VS 2019 bracket and stared is d projected 2019 result for buhari and atiku based on ethnicity of the contestant, popularity, acceptability and incumbency factors across the zones


North Central (6 states + FCT)
Buhari - 2,411,013 *(1, 870,200)*
Jonathan - 1,715,818 *(2, 750,123)*


North East (6 states) boko haram zone
Buhari - 2,848,678 *(2,156,730)*
Jonathan - 796,588 *(1,573,680)*


North West (7 states) buhari's zone
Buhari - 7,115,199 *(5, 930,720)*
Jonathan - 1,339,709 *(2,930,490)*


South East (5 states)
Buhari - 198,248 *(900,123)*
Jonathan - 2,464,906 *(1,980,431)*


South South (6 states) Jonathan's zone
Buhari - 418,590 *(1,130,230)*
Jonathan - 4,714,725 *(3,230,720)*


South West (6 states)
Buhari - 2,433,193 *(2,390,290)*
Jonathan - 1,821,416 *(2, 130,569)*

This is my projected based on worst case scenarios as well as increase in voting strengths. Haven't seen someone who regrets voting pdp for presidential 2015 but that of Apc everywhere. Northerners not traveling this time around for election. Definitely a minus to Apc. In all I think atiku victory is glaring but with likely strong opposition in National Assembly

Atiku declared winner scoring less than 1m votes ahead of buhari. Buhari kicked and asked that inec should declare the result inconclusive. Atiku left for Dubai to strategise his cabinet immediately
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by socialmediaman: 3:43pm On Feb 15, 2019
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by SalamRushdie: 3:45pm On Feb 15, 2019
INEC already Fueling electoral malpractice

2 Likes

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by jlinkd78(m): 3:47pm On Feb 15, 2019
This sarcastic statements points to d direction that INEC might have been compromised and reason why we must all sustain d tempo of vigilance

2 Likes

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by mycar: 3:52pm On Feb 15, 2019
If Zombie were intelligent, they would vote for APC senators and vote for Atiku, atleast, with strong APC national assembly, Atiku will have no other option but perform. Buhari is weak and outdated and lack self development

4 Likes

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by psucc(m): 3:52pm On Feb 15, 2019
Let me see if APC Situation Room will be announcing the result before INEC officially announced as was witnessed in 2015. Things are going awry for the APC this time around.
SalamRushdie:
INEC already Fueling electoral malpractice
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Ndonu101: 3:53pm On Feb 15, 2019
of course this is not news

INEC are the ones who rig elections

2 Likes

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by dedonfranco(m): 3:56pm On Feb 15, 2019
35m votes for Buhari.
Winning 100%
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Justpd: 4:04pm On Feb 15, 2019
INEC dropped ad-hoc staffs that went to training in anambra state. People that suffered to be in training for 3 to 4 days weren't shortlisted. Instead they brought in their own people.
God will punish INEC nothing works in Nigeria

1 Like

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by alfaman3: 4:05pm On Feb 15, 2019
mozel247:
2015 VS 2019 bracket and stared is d projected 2019 result for buhari and atiku based on ethnicity of the contestant, popularity, acceptability and incumbency factors across the zones


North Central (6 states + FCT)
Buhari - 2,411,013 *(1, 870,200)*
Jonathan - 1,715,818 *(2, 750,123)*


North East (6 states) boko haram zone
Buhari - 2,848,678 *(2,156,730)*
Jonathan - 796,588 *(1,573,680)*


North West (7 states) buhari's zone
Buhari - 7,115,199 *(5, 930,720)*
Jonathan - 1,339,709 *(2,930,490)*


South East (5 states)
Buhari - 198,248 *(900,123)*
Jonathan - 2,464,906 *(1,980,431)*


South South (6 states) Jonathan's zone
Buhari - 418,590 *(1,130,230)*
Jonathan - 4,714,725 *(3,230,720)*


South West (6 states)
Buhari - 2,433,193 *(2,390,290)*
Jonathan - 1,821,416 *(2, 130,569)*

This is my projected based on worst case scenarios as well as increase in voting strengths. Haven't seen someone who regrets voting pdp for presidential 2015 but that of Apc everywhere. Northerners not traveling this time around for election. Definitely a minus to Apc. In all I think atiku victory is glaring but with likely strong opposition in National Assembly

Atiku declared winner scoring less than 1m votes ahead of buhari. Buhari kicked and asked that inec should declare the result inconclusive. Atiku left for Dubai to strategise his cabinet immediately

You mean SE will more than quadruple their votes for Buhari while reducing their vote for PDP now that their own proper son is on the ticket?

Please go back to analysis school.
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by DLondonboiy: 4:08pm On Feb 15, 2019
If INEC likes let them make a fool of themselves..The world is observing this election...
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Dannyset(m): 4:08pm On Feb 15, 2019
PDP already putting all resources and machinations together just to discredit INEC before the election cos it's obvious they've lost. It's a pity it won't fly.
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Awol1(m): 4:15pm On Feb 15, 2019
Justpd:
INEC dropped ad-hoc staffs that went to training in anambra state. People that suffered to be in training for 3 to 4 days weren't shortlisted. Instead they brought in their own people.
God will punish INEC nothing works in Nigeria

Obiano will fail.

1 Like

Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by seunmsg(m): 4:38pm On Feb 15, 2019
mozel247:
2015 VS 2019 bracket and stared is d projected 2019 result for buhari and atiku based on ethnicity of the contestant, popularity, acceptability and incumbency factors across the zones


North Central (6 states + FCT)
Buhari - 2,411,013 *(1, 870,200)*
Jonathan - 1,715,818 *(2, 750,123)*


North East (6 states) boko haram zone
Buhari - 2,848,678 *(2,156,730)*
Jonathan - 796,588 *(1,573,680)*


North West (7 states) buhari's zone
Buhari - 7,115,199 *(5, 930,720)*
Jonathan - 1,339,709 *(2,930,490)*


South East (5 states)
Buhari - 198,248 *(900,123)*
Jonathan - 2,464,906 *(1,980,431)*


South South (6 states) Jonathan's zone
Buhari - 418,590 *(1,130,230)*
Jonathan - 4,714,725 *(3,230,720)*


South West (6 states)
Buhari - 2,433,193 *(2,390,290)*
Jonathan - 1,821,416 *(2, 130,569)*

This is my projected based on worst case scenarios as well as increase in voting strengths. Haven't seen someone who regrets voting pdp for presidential 2015 but that of Apc everywhere. Northerners not traveling this time around for election. Definitely a minus to Apc. In all I think atiku victory is glaring but with likely strong opposition in National Assembly

Atiku declared winner scoring less than 1m votes ahead of buhari. Buhari kicked and asked that inec should declare the result inconclusive. Atiku left for Dubai to strategise his cabinet immediately



Your north central projection is absolute rubbish. The most conservative analyst will project a 50-50 in the region. Projecting Atiku to defeat Buhari in the region by over one million votes makes no sense. Buhari will win Kogi, Kwara, Niger, and Nasarawa. Benue and Plateau are battleground states. Let’s even concede Benue, Plateau to Atiku, how will that translate to an over one million margin?
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Racoon(m): 4:46pm On Feb 15, 2019
INEC is the only hope of rigging for this desperate govt but it's not gonna work.
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Kingspin(m): 4:48pm On Feb 15, 2019
mycar:
If Zombie were intelligent, they would vote for APC senators and vote for Atiku, atleast, with strong APC national assembly, Atiku will have no other option but perform. Buhari is weak and outdated and lack self development
We are dealing with extremists
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by islandmoon: 5:05pm On Feb 15, 2019
Oyibo get sense!!
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by islandmoon: 5:05pm On Feb 15, 2019
INEC how come? tell us!
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by PythonAmaka: 5:06pm On Feb 15, 2019
Almost twice as much the percentage of registered voters from the previous year goes to show the effect of voters awareness and the new consciousness of the generality of the people.
Also, a much improvement as reported, to those who were not able to acess their PVCs, voters apathy among few others.
More crucially, Igbos evidently scurried out to register in their great number due to the Obi factor.
The summary of this is that there is no vacancy in Aso rock... Pakam!... Every criminal international conspiracy will fail.




-Python amaka
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by smesi: 7:20pm On Feb 22, 2019
Tomorrow election 23/02/2019 will be inclusive in some part of the state as crisis might likely distrupt the smooth running of the process. Another possible problem might be the issue of smart card reader it may likely run out of current on it or fail to read voter fingers.
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by frog12: 6:30pm On Feb 26, 2019
we all knew inec was fudging numbers. we've seen this before. now the outside world knows !!!
Re: INEC Accomplishes The Statistically Impossible - UK Guardian by Nobody: 6:47pm On Feb 26, 2019
Sham elections

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