Few days to the rescheduled
presidential election coming up
on Saturday, February 23, there
are still heated arguments,
debates, prophecies and
forecasts/predictions on who
will emerge as Nigeria’s next
president.

The two leading candidates are
President Muhammadu Buhari of
the ruling All Progressives Congress
(APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the
opposition Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP).
A collection of eight predictions by
international analysts, published
by Bloomberg, shows that the
2019 presidential election will be
keenly contested by the two
leading candidates as the election
has “split analysts down the
middle”.

Out of the eight forecasts by eight
analysts, four predicted President
Buhari will win a second term
while the remaining four also
predicted a victory for Atiku

Four predictions in favour of
President Buhari.

1. Control Risks
Bloomberg reports that Control
Risks, a London-based company,
predicted that President Buhari
will win by a small margin due to
the divisions within the PDP,
Atiku’s party, and its lacklustre
campaigning.

2. Eurasia Group
According to Eurasia Group’s
forecast, President Buhari has a
60% chance of winning. The New
York risk firm said it predicted
victory for Buhari because his
cause has been helped by some
key PDP politicians, including
Senate president Bukola Saraki and
governors in the southeast, who
didn’t allegedly give active support
to Atiku’s campaign.

3. NKC African Economics
Jared Jeffery, an analyst at NKC
African Economics, a research
house based in Paarl, South Africa,
said though President Buhari’s
approval ratings have plunged
since he became president four
years ago, incumbent presidents in
Africa win around 85% of the
elections they contest.
He added that Buhari is from the
northwest, which is the region
with the most voters, and he’s
maintained an “image of
incorruptibility.”

4. Capital Economics
John Ashbourne, an economist at
the London-based research group,
said: “The advantages of
incumbency will help President
Buhari clinch a narrow win”.


Four predictions in favour of
Atiku Abubakar.

1. Fitch Solutions
Fitch Solutions predicted that Atiku
has the edge given how Buhari
“struggled to fulfill key election
pledges’’ made when he came to
office in 2015. The London-based
research house also said Atiku may
be able to take a large chunk of
votes in the north, a region Buhari
dominated last time when he was
facing former President Goodluck
Jonathan.

2. Songhai Advisory
Songhai Advisory in its forecast
said Atiku will benefit from the
support of key powerbrokers,
including ex-army chiefs and
former heads of state such as
Ibrahim Babangida and Olusegun
Obasanjo. It specifically highlighted
Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku,
saying the latter “continues to
sway election outcomes’’ and since
he left office in 2007.

3. Teneo Intelligence
Teneo Intelligence predicted that
Atiku will get up to 57% of the
votes, against 42% for Buhari if the
election is free and fair.

4. Verisk Maplecroft
Ed Hobey-Hamsher, an Africa
analyst at the Bath, UK-based firm
predicted that Buhari has just 41%
chance of victory. It said that
President Buhari’s chances have
been damaged, in part, by recent
military setbacks against Boko
Haram and other militants
affiliated to Islamic State in the
northeast.

"..Songhai Advisory Songhai Advisory in its forecast said Atiku will benefit from the support of key power brokers, including ex-army chiefs and former heads of state such as Ibrahim Babangida &Olusegun Obasanjo.

It specifically highlighted Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku, saying the latter “continues to sway election outcomes’’ and since he left office in 2007.

Meanwhile;

Op, try and put space paragraphs for easy reading.

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Atiku All the way

Against all odds our father atiku must come out victorious

President atiku we know

Parallel govt if Buhari attempts to rig

It is really difficult getting an objective prediction for Nigerian elections. It is a shame there are no scientific polling organizations in Nigeria. All we get are people waving their wet fingers in the wind and making wild guesses.

Even though I am almost indifferent to the outcome, the political junkie in me cannot abide by the frustrating lack of real analysis. All we have on NL are an assortment of m0rons hyping their little biases.

Such shot, many style, so sleek