[size=14pt]Opposition in disarray[/size]
By Festus Owete
September 5, 2010 01:23AM

Building political alliances in Nigeria is something of a gamble. The permutations like a kaleidoscope keep changing. Even as Charles Agadaenyi Nwodo, the national chairman of the Coalition for a New Nigeria (CNN), sat during the group’s meeting in Abuja last Wednesday, he was worrying about the absence of leaders of some of the parties expected at the parley, where final decisions on strategies aimed at wresting power from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2011, were to be adopted. He was not quite sure who would turn up and who would have changed their minds.

Mr Nwodo, who is also the national chairman of the Progressive Action Congress (PAC), was seen consulting with some of his aides, as he worked his mobile phone to ensure the attendance got a boost. His face soon brightened up when he discovered, midway into the parley, held at the national secretariat of the Labour Party (LP), that about 22 of the expected 35 opposition parties had sent in representatives.

The meeting was the 11th such in the last five months and there is no guarantee that the process is complete or that agreements will survive beyond the next gathering even though the end of the meeting saw the parties resolving to work to dislodge the PDP from power in the forthcoming polls. According to a communiqué approved by 11 of the parties, which was signed by MrMr. Nwodo as CNN chairman and Yunusa Tanko of the National Conscience Party (NCP) as secretary, the coalition agreed to present and support a common presidential candidate, as well as gubernatorial and legislative candidates in the states, depending on their areas of strength.

“The coalition believes it is on a rescue mission to save Nigeria from imminent collapse as a nation and to salvage its image at home and abroad,” the communiqué announced. “We are not unmindful of the enormity of the task ahead, hence, we solicit the support, cooperation and collaboration of all well-meaning Nigerians.

“In all we do, the focal point remains to rescue the common man from serial exploitation and save our country from the drift to anarchy and totalitarianism as callously exhibited by the PDP administration in the last 11 years.”

How will it work? Where any of the parties have visible electoral dominance or comparative advantage, the other members of the alliance will collectively support the candidate of that party. To forestall rigging by the PDP, the CNN will have 22 or 35 agents (if the other parties eventually sign the pact) at each polling booth to protect each other’s candidates, as against one from the PDP. The Electoral Act requires each party to present one agent for each polling station.

Several coalitions

But the coalition is just one of the several attempts to galvanise the opposition to resist and upstage the PDP at the next polls. Sometime in 2008, some groups, under the aegis of the Mega Summit Movement (MSM) met in Lagos to discuss the creation of a formidable platform to challenge the PDP.

In one of its meetings early this year, about 56 political leaders, notably of the progressive bent, were in attendance. They included: Anthony Enahoro, Olu Falae, Balarabe Musa, Bala Takaya, former Senator Sulaimon Salawu, Rasheed Shitta-Bey, Dubem Onyia, Mohammed Ali Ndume, Dapo Sarumi, Almajeri Geidam, Supo Shonibare, Pat Utomi, Sam Ewang, Adegbenga Kaka and Robson Momoh.

Others who reportedly identified with the movement’s dream are former military head of state, Muhammadu Buhari; former vice president Atiku Abubakar; former Sokoto State governor, Attahiru Bafarawa; S.O.Z Ejiofor, Ahmed Yusuf, Lateef Jakande, Ayo Adebanjo, Audu Ogbeh, Balarabe Musa, Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu and Lawal Kaita.

Also included are: Tunji Braithwaite, Mike Ahamba, Clement Ebri, Sule Hamma, Victor Umeh of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Mojisoluwa Akinfenwa, Usman Bugaje, Tom Ikimi, John Nwodo, Alabo Graham Douglas, Femi Okurounmu, Arthur Nwakwo, Dauda Birma, Abiola Ajimobi.

Although some of them, including Messrs Buhari and Atiku, later joined the Congress for Progressive Change and the PDP, respectively, the movement has since floated a party called the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP), which only last Thursday got its approval as a registered party from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The party has Pat Utomi as protem chairman.

Wale Okuniyi, the protem national organising secretary of the mega party said last Friday that it does not belong to the CNN. He, however, insisted that the movement is still on course and will meet at Mr. Enahoro’s home in Benin on September 23.

Incidentally, Mr. Enahoro’s group has itself adopted Goodluck Jonathan as its presidential candidate.

“We are part of another initiative set up by progressive leaders of thought,” Mr Okuniyi said.

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Continued

No to mergers

Aside from those efforts, two main opposition parties, the Action Congress and the CPC founded by MrMr. Buhari, began merger talks months ago to prosecute the 2011 elections against the PDP. Although several meetings were held, no concrete decision was reached, apparently because of the individual ambitions of Messrs Buhari and Atiku (who was then still in the AC) to rule Nigeria next year.

The AC, which was last month re-christened Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) after merging with other parties, insisted on producing the presidential candidate, saying it was coming into the political marriage as a senior partner, since it has two governors - Edo and Lagos. AC spokesperson, Lai Mohammed, confirmed this.

The party’s resolve might not be divorced from reported moves to field the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Nuhu Ribadu, as its candidate. The calculation is that MrMr. Ribadu will run with the Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole. Mr Oshiomhole has since denied eyeing the vice presidential slot of the party.

The CPC, through its spokesperson, Dennis Aghanya, said MrMr. Buhari is the only person with the integrity needed to secure victory in the forthcoming election. NEXT hasNEXT gatheredhas gathered that the possible breakdown of the talks forced Mr. Buhari to initiate the coalition with 35 other parties, which has now adopted the name CNN.

The same AC also discussed with a faction of the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) led by Mr Bafarawa and former FCT Minister, Jeremiah Useni. The talks could be said to be the only successful ones following the admission of the DPP into the ACN. The logo of the new party has four colours, with the inclusion of green to reflect DPP interests.

Even so, reports say the alliance might break down, as the DPP has refused to collapse its structure into ACN as did former Abia State governor, Orji Uzor Kalu, who recently collapsed the entire Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) into the PDP.

Convulsion in ANPP

Regrettably, the ANNP, perceived as the main opposition, has so far not identified with any merger talks ahead of the elections. Like in the previous elections, the party is opting to go it alone. Its leaders believe it has the numerical strength and resources to do so and are not known to have discussed partnerships with any of the about 60 opposition parties in the country. In the 2003 and 2007 elections, the ANPP fielded candidates but could not beat its own record in the 1999 elections, when it joined with the AD.

The possibility of the ANPP giving the PDP a good fight is dimming by the day. As at today, the party is bedevilled with crippling internal crisis. Two weeks ago, some of its members organised a parallel national executive committee meeting during which they dissolved the National Working Committee led by Edwin Ume-Ezeoke.

Mr Ume-Ezeoke, however, stepped down as chairman last Thursday to pave way for a nine-member Transition Management Committee to run the ANPP until its national convention on September 17. Analysts believe the setting up of the management committee will not change the situation in the party. The members who sacked the Ume-Ezeoke leadership, many of whom were subsequently suspended, are still aggrieved and have vowed to fight on. The creation of the transition committee, to them, is the brainchild of the Borno State governor, Ali Modu Sheriff, who is battling for the soul of the party with the Kano State governor, Ibrahim Shekarau.

Mr Sheriff is said to be opposed to Mr Shekarau’s presidential ambition. He shunned the ceremony where the Kano governor declared his ambition in Abuja last month.

Sources say the Borno governor has assured President Jonathan that he would use the ANPP structure to back him if he decides to contest. We learnt that Mr. Sheriff did not only nominate his sister-in-law as minister of state for finance, but extracted a promise from President Jonathan to support his quest that his chosen candidate win the state gubernatorial race on the platform of the ANPP. The governor is said to be preparing his younger brother to take over from him.

Yet, some members of the ANPP are said to be rooting for the former military ruler , Ibrahim Babangida, as its presidential candidate in the event that he does not get the PDP ticket.

What may equally frustrate the CNN project is that some of the opposition parties are already positioning themselves to support Mr. Jonathan anytime he declares his interest to run. Leaders of some of the parties that met recently to provide a more formidable opposition to the PDP have little faith in the alliance. They easily recall the failure of such efforts in 2007, and in the Second Republic when the progressives came together to fight the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN).

Moshood Erubami, the national coordinator of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), a pro-democracy group, says an alliance of opposition groups suggests that they have made themselves inferior to the PDP.

“It is unfortunate that despite the higher stakes that will be set by coming elections, opposition parties are yet to assume a voice of redemption,” Mr. Erubami said last Friday. “The time available is unfortunately not being utilised to step up issues-based campaigns. This is a sign that the ruling party has captured their voice and entangled their legs to remain in the Second Eleven team.” The activist said the only way change could come in our country is if voters rise up, rather than leave the fight to the opposition.

“The decision on who wins in the coming dispensation relies on the new resolve of Nigeria to checkmate rigging and manipulations in elections,” he said. “The second point is the personality being put forward, regardless of the strength and number of coalition members. What will win the election will be their ideology/orientation and the antecedents of the leaders.” General Secretary of the Alliance for Credible Elections (ACE), Emma Ezeazu, argues that the CNN might not make the expected impact if main opposition parties such as the ACN and ANPP are not members.

Mr. Ezeazu, however, said it is immaterial to his group which party wins the elections, provided the votes of Nigerians are allowed to determine their victories.

“It doesn’t matter to us who wins, whether the opposition or the PDP. It is a secondary to us. What we want is that the people’s votes should count,” he said.

Balarabe Musa, the national chairman of the Conference of the Political Parties, a group of opposition parties in the country, is still optimistic that the CNN will work.

“We have been having opposition to the PDP because of their bankruptcy right from the beginning; but that opposition has now taken on greater and credible dimensions because among us there are political parties, beside members, that have records of winning elections,” he said. “If we had signed contractual democratic alliance, in 2011 and 2007, PDP would not have been able to do what they did. And this will definitely reduce PDP to a nonentity and will give us a good chance.”

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