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|How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Barondenigeria: 7:00am On Oct 29, 2019|
Abdulbasit Shuaib and Yusuf Ibrahim
Brexit is a term used to describe the scheduled withdrawal of the UK (United Kingdom) from the EU (European Union).
This is a process that was birthed in the aftermath of a 2016 UK – EU membership referendum, where majority of UK voters voted to leave the European Union.
Over the years, there has been series of negotiation and re-negotiation to reach a withdrawal agreement which will form the basis of the post-divorce relationship between both parties.
However, these efforts have been met with a deluge of obstacles, the most recent being the UK Parliament suggesting a further extension of the Brexit deadline and Prime Minister Boris Johnson calling for a General Election in December.
Evidently, the effects of Brexit have been strongly felt by the UK economy with the British Pounds (“GBP”) shedding over 21% since the exit process began in 2016.
This could be further worsened as vast majority of economic projections suggest that Brexit will harm the UK economy both in the short and long term.
Although, Brexit is a political and economic issue relating to the United Kingdom, the effect is far-reaching and cuts across the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) downgraded its global economic growth outlook for 2019 to 3.6% with emerging economies expected to grow by 4.1% (following a 4.5% growth recorded in 2018) citing the trade war between US and China and uncertainty regarding Brexit’s outcome.
How will Brexit affect Nigeria?
It is quite difficult to draw extensive and clear cut conclusions on the impact of Brexit on Nigeria’s economy, as this situation is the first of its kind and hence there exists no precursor to be employed as a basis for analysis. However, our study on the trade relations and economic interactions between the UK and Nigeria discloses the following findings as consequences of the planned British exit on Nigeria’s economy.
Investments and remittances
Brexit presents significant economic and political uncertainty. For the average investor, unpredictability means danger! Foreign investors would be weary of investing in emerging economies such as Nigeria’s. Over the years, Foreign direct investments (“FDI”) in Nigeria has declined significantly by a cumulative average rate of 19% between 2014 and 2018 with the largest decline recorded in 2017 and 2018 (post Brexit referendum periods).
On the other hand, remittances to Nigeria is the second highest in Africa growing at an average rate of 4% between 2014 and 2018 with the largest growths experienced in 2017 and 2018.
Although correlation does not imply causation, we could assume that Brexit has contributed to the trend experienced in both FDI and Remittances. This could continue in the foreseeable period following the breakup of the UK and EU’s economic relationship.
With the projected slowdown in economic activities across nations, emerging economies heavily reliant on commodity export for revenue generation are expected to experience decline in revenue as demand for commodities are weak during periods economic deceleration.
In 2016, oil prices declined by 17% year on year (y/y). This led to a slowdown in Nigeria’s economic growth process, which eventually saw it slip into recession.
Around 32% of Nigeria’s 2020 projected revenue will come from oil, but with Brexit expected to come into full effect in 2020, it might be too early to lay emphasis on the impact on oil revenue, vice Nigeria’s economic performance.
With respect to human capital, we might witness an exodus of skilled workers and talented students to the united Kingdom in the aftermath of a successful Brexit. The current British government under the leadership of Boris Johnson has defined its post-Brexit approach to immigration as one which looks to attract “Skilled Migrants”.
In line with the stated, the UK government has granted a further 2-years post study stay to international students who have attended a recognised UK higher institution.
According to Study in-Uk (“SI-UK”), Nigeria ranks 9th amidst country of origin of international students’ population.
On the job scene, 26% of Doctors practising in the UK are from non-EU countries, with a chunk of that percentage coming from Nigeria. A continued relaxation of immigration policy in the UK will most likely lead to human human capital flight in Nigeria, post-Brexit.
In conclusion; in order to mitigate the economic effects of British exit from the European common market on Nigeria, the federal government must show seriousness in its economic diversification plan (if such exists), as a means to boost revenue generation.
The federal government must also create the enabling environment for small and medium scale businesses, as well as local industries to thrive, thereby driving domestic investment and discouraging brain drain.
10 Likes 3 Shares
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by helinues: 7:03am On Oct 29, 2019|
Brexit is not coming any time soon as UK were not well prepared when they voted in favour..
We should be expecting another extensions after Jan deadline ..
Only if the Brexit notion wont die should there be a new election or a new referendum
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Abfinest007(m): 7:10am On Oct 29, 2019|
d uk is trying to cut cost so it won't affect Nigeria that much
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by cenaman(m): 7:12am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by SoNature(m): 7:17am On Oct 29, 2019|
Nobody is sure yet.
Even Boris Johnson doesn't know how Brexit will affect the UK.
Nigerians, save this JAMB question after Brexit in January 2020
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Astark: 7:18am On Oct 29, 2019|
UK economic power is long gone.
USA, China control the world now
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by RenHub: 7:18am On Oct 29, 2019|
Brexit for how long na. The UK making it look like they are moving from Egypt to Canaan. They should move if they want to move.
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|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by 3rdavefarms(m): 7:18am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by technuel: 7:19am On Oct 29, 2019|
UK will as usual turn to Nigeria to continue their neo colonialism.
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Generalwoodz(m): 7:19am On Oct 29, 2019|
Biaexit would happen na
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by mcmbonu: 7:19am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by iCauseTrouble: 7:19am On Oct 29, 2019|
Am expecting that my uncle that has spent over 35 years there to also exit the place and come back home.
He is always telling me there is nothing abroad
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by dyydxx: 7:19am On Oct 29, 2019|
It would come by Dec 31st after Boris wins a majority in the Dec Election. This last gasp of remoaner parliament will be dissolved before friday and the Dec election will be secured and the wrath of the voters will be expressed in that Dec election
2 Likes 1 Share
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by helinues: 7:21am On Oct 29, 2019|
Boris that is having trouble within conservatives party. He may soon be a gunner like his predecessors
2 Likes 1 Share
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Isinweke(m): 7:22am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by SouthSouth1914: 7:22am On Oct 29, 2019|
The brits were enthusiastic at first to leave! But now, not so much because of the myriads of problems they’d face especially fundings (financial). We all shouldn’t forget that the British are the most greedy people on earth.
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by GuestLog: 7:23am On Oct 29, 2019|
Britain will adopt Brexit and sanitize their land of foreigners and religious bigots. That is their sole aim, to cut off European agreements so as not to break any existing laws.
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by gaetano: 7:23am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by winterfell007(m): 7:23am On Oct 29, 2019|
Las Las. Brexit won't happen. They keep seeking extension every now and then. That should tell that the parliament doesn't have any other choice other than to remain in the union.
Boris Johnson don tire for their matter, the British people are already worn out and they just want to get on with their lives
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by gaetano: 7:24am On Oct 29, 2019|
And Germany controls Europe
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by SouthSouth1914: 7:24am On Oct 29, 2019|
Lies! They are doing it solely for financial reasons, that’s why they booted out David Cameron because he was against it. But they found in the long run it wasn’t going to favor them financially so they keep postponing until status quo remains
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by spafu(m): 7:25am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by wheesin(m): 7:26am On Oct 29, 2019|
Will they carry the country from Europe to another country? I'm asking how you leave a continent union and still.be in the continent?
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by 9jayes: 7:27am On Oct 29, 2019|
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by MelesZenawi: 7:27am On Oct 29, 2019|
It hasten the disintegration of Nigeria.
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Nobody: 7:28am On Oct 29, 2019|
Listen its only cotonu border closure that is affecting us...the price of rice is too costly
Abeg leave bretexit...
6 Likes 3 Shares
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by GuestLog: 7:29am On Oct 29, 2019|
SouthSouth1914:That's another reason. I shouldn't have said 'solely'. Wrong choice of word.
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by Sunnycliff(m): 7:30am On Oct 29, 2019|
More commonwealth countries will be more likely to gain jobs in the UK. They have already amended their immigration law to extra two years after graduation for work and study cum residence permit.
Brexit will favour us
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by DTeekay(m): 7:32am On Oct 29, 2019|
Can Nigeria leave Africa? Maybe that will solve our problem. This African mentality is bad for us.
8 Likes 1 Share
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by tsfxtech(m): 7:35am On Oct 29, 2019|
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|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by RichDad1(m): 7:35am On Oct 29, 2019|
My own concern is for the borders to remain closed.
|Re: How Will Brexit Affect Nigeria? by chuksjuve(m): 7:35am On Oct 29, 2019|
You people rate yourself too much
Go and first fix your country before trying to run shoulders with those who are centuries ahead of you .
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