[size=14pt]Instant view - North Korea artillery hits South Korea island[/size]
SEOUL | Tue Nov 23, 2010 8:09am GMT

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea on Tuesday fired dozens of artillery shells at a South Korean island, setting buildings on fire and prompting a return of fire by the South, Seoul's military and media reports said.

Following are initial reactions from North Korean experts and market analysts.

MARK PERVAN, SENIOR COMMODITIES ANALYST AT ANZ IN MELBOURNE

"This is a trigger for the 'risk off' button. You'll certainly see selling in risk-based markets like equities and commodities until we get a better read on events.

"There should be reasonable support for gold although we often see a firmer dollar as the initial reaction to risk and lower gold prices, but industrial metals might get hit. Oil too."

HWANG KEUM-DAN, MARKET ANALYST, SAMSUNG SECURITIES

"The stock market will inevitably open lower as today's act of aggression is unlike others that have taken towards South Korea. The fact that a residential area was fired upon, potentially injuring civilians, is alarming.

"However, I do not necessarily think this will prompt a lasting market decline. The market will do poorly in the short-term, given the gravity of this issue -- this is worse than missile firing but less serious than nuclear testing. The main KOSPI index's 60-day moving average, around 1,870, will probably be maintained."

PARK YOUNG-HO, DR, KOREA INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL UNIFICATION

"Although I can't be certain of the rationale behind North Korea's attacks yet, I see it as North Korea's intention to turn this region into a conflict zone so that it can bring the concerned parties to the discussion table.

"By showing that it has nuclear capacity and by firing artillery shells today, I think it is trying to make a point that it is militarily capable and thus should not be lightly regarded. Ultimately, I think it is strategically seeking to tilt talks concerning the contested Northern Limit Line and the peace treaty towards its advantage."

ZHU FENG, PROFESSOR, PEKING UNIVERSITY

"It's unbelievable. Today's news proves that North Korea, under unprovoked conditions, shot these South Korean island.

"It's reckless provocation. They want to make a big bang and force the negotiations back into their favour. It's the oldest trick.

"From the Chinese perspective, they'll be aware of how this North Korean escalation will go. If it's North Korea's responsibility, Beijing will condemn the act, as one that is against peace and stability."

LEE JAE-MAN, ANALYST, TONG YANG SECURITIES

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6AM11920101123

. . .Lets guess; North Korea will again deny this attack like they denied sinking the South Korean submarine earlier this year. Its the land of crazies!

They even have a person as president.

On a more serious note beaf, I fear for the human race in this century.

Too many flash points around the world that together could ignite this world into a war of oblivion.

God help the human race.

Think about it, if North Korea and Iran kick off with support from China and Russia ,then we might as well start to get our lives in order.

^
That will never happen. We lived through the cold war which was a tense nuclear standoff that lasted decades.
All nuclear weapons do is assure that holding countries never get attacked.
Even with the exceptional boneheadness of the North Koreans, if South Korea had the bomb, they never test their patience so visibly. This is a "we've got it and you don't scenario!"

Correction 2 dead. Clearly an act of war.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/9218848.stm

Maybe south korea should stop provoking the north with their military drills around a disputed border; get back to talks huh!!!!
Anyway what do i care, it's a small world and there'll always be conflict somewhere

This is SERIOUS !!

I doubt it's that serious yet considering it's just a tiny island that was set ablaze with relatively few casualties according to the media. When the whole south Korean border is broken off completely from the north and drifting in the ocean by itself; then it might be a little bit serious.

This demands a firm response.  NKorea is testing the ground to see how the powers would respond . . . . . would it end in a slap to the face, or a fist knuckle delivered with a upper cut to the lips?   

Who are those likely to respond, if any?  UN is currently in a flux and at best their reprimands is not worthy of the signatures that come with it.  So who else will stand up to NK?  Europe. . . US. . . .Japan?

Europe has a new attitude when it comes to global conflicts - if it's not on their territory or within a threatening vicinity then their only commitment is lip service, no movements on ground. War is expensive and with a continent on the brink of loosing centuries of gains earned from Imperial bullcrap, they are not willing to stretch for any foreigner's benefit.  As we have seen in Afghanistan, NATO was designed for big expectations. . . .when employed in a compact war it performs below par.  NKorea is loud but it's a compact territorial front for a warfare.

US under President Obama will not do it either, unless he is forced under a threat of impeachment would he order forces to face off with NK.  First, there was gain on the ground pre 2001 State of The Union speech where Bush camped NK in the "Axis of Evil".  Everything went down hill from there and fast!  Any move by US to face off with NK will upset China and Russia immensely.  Second, Israel is watching to see what US will do.  If US show any agression towards NK, then Israel will rally Europe to force Obama to see Iran as a far more present and immediate danger than NK and to therefore make similar assertive steps to nuetralize Iran's power, even if it's just in principles.

Japan is cornered!  All it can do now is mediate and hope that the problem does not escalate.  Any escalation can spill over into other contended islands and territorial grounds in the area, whether between NK and SK or between China and Japan, especially given recent tensions between the latter two. 

This is just Negro's opinion.

^
You are forgetting that N Korea has psychotic leaders with nuclear toys. No country, no matter how bright arsed its army and president are, will dare attack N Korea, lest select portions of Asia become nuclear wastelands.

The best that can happen is for S Korea to begin test firing nuclear weapons and some pretty serious missiles. S Korea builds some of its own nuclear reactors and is not far from a weapon if it wants one.

I believe the NK leaders projected that image of insanity to deliberately create a "cloud of unknown" - sort of a mystifying and reclusive identity that elicits caution from the approaching enemy. It's a masquerade! Given the appropriate measure of penalties the mask will come off.

In a statement after the exchange of fire, the North accused Seoul of driving the peninsula to the "brink of war" with "reckless military provocation" and by postponing humanitarian aid, according to the North's official KCNA news agency.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11827080

Can you believe that? You bomb someone because they won't give you aid? Ridiculous!

what prompted the attack?

ie what was the reckless military provocation being referred to?

and the humanitarian aid which was postponed.

^ ^ ^ I think NK is manipulating recent political frictions in US, both on domestic and foreign relations, to its advantage. It appears North is in concordance with Iran to pre-empt any attempt by the West to "shock and awe" Iran over its nuclear programs.

I say this because if you go back. . . as far back as 2005. . . . you see a see-saw trend in their attitude and ambition to self-impose on the globe.

Now that everyone is shifted focus to Korea, gives Iran time to ride up on the lift while NK plays and fiddles around with this joke script called "UN sanctions". Then when it gets hot in Korea, Iran throws its own shell and scuttles everyone back to Middle East. . . . . .to issue more UN sanctions, while NK takes turn on the uplift of the see-saw. Back and forth they go. . . . and the world go with them.

All these people are nuts. . . . . it does not matter how it ends there are only two beneficiaries to all these nonsense (1) Securities and Trade; (2) Defense contractors.

quite true.