Having learnt a lot from my international relations class, I am able to properly understand the events that just played out between USA/Iran and the rationale behind the actions of the leaders especially Donald Trump especially before and after Iran's response to the killing of Soilemani by U.S

First of all , let me retiretate that there can never be a world war 3 for now.. due to the deep interconnectedness and complexity of the World we live in because Nations have found out that there may be Victors but no winners in war.. nobody benefits..

Back to our topic
Before Trump's speech this morning, how many of you realized that Iran was very careful with their missile attack response.
When I saw the news yesterday (or this early morning) about Iran's missiles launch against US military base in Iraq.. I knew that it was nothing much and yes.. it was nothing much indeed.. No American life was lost.. It was as if Iran deliberately bombed some parts that they know won't be really inhabited.. why?

It is because of what we call in International Relations "Proportional Response" - simply meaning a country responding in the exact way or same measure she was attacked by another country.. without overdoing it..
Iran's military general Soilemani and some others were killed, Iran responded by launching some missiles at US's military base in Iraq.. No American casualty was recorded. We can even say that Iran responded underproportionately but that is not a problem in International system.. only if the response was Over proportional.

I was not very surprised at Trump's peaceful speech today too.. why? President Trump's violent tweets since the killing of Soilemani can be accounted for..
We can call it some form of Emotional or Psychological detterence measure (for laymen , defensive measures)

Let me explain
President Trump and the US government were kinda fidgety and afraid over what Iran's response will be. Not because they can't attack Iran back with full force but Iran is considered a rogue nation in thr International system and with rogue states, you have to be careful of your dealings with them. You can't be sure of their next action.

What if Iran decides to bomb a plane full of US citizens as a response? What if they decide to catch and kill many Americans in the Middle East as a response? A lot of what ifs and America is a country that cares a lot about its citizens.. America first policy.
So until Iran responds ( as everyone know they will) Americans and America's interest are not very safe and that is why Trump and the White house are very fidgety..

That's why President Trump decided to go online and start warning Iran violently through his tweets like "We will destroy some places" "We will bomb some cultural sites" Just to dissuade Iran from responding in a stupid but deadly way.

Now maybe Iran government and the Supreme Ayatollah leader took the cue and decided to send Missiles to US's base in Iraq(not targeting to kill however) when we know there are other places they could have sent their missiles too and ensure the killing of Americans.
But thank God they didn't do that because US would have had no choice but to retaliate and that would be very disastrous.

Back to the topic. After Iran responded , Trump and US government assessed the damage and "breathed a sigh of relief".
Response is over and no American life was lost.

Break in Transmission - But wait guys do you think America don't know about the missile attack before it took place? Trust me , America got spies everywhere. But US allowed them to strike anyway because Iran government needed to give their people their national prestige, otherwise it could have led to emergence and breeding of more anti- US terrorists fighting for national prestige in Iran..
Who knows maybe America got wind of the attack and secretly evacuated their soldiers?

Back to our topic
Many people expect Trump to declare war or something similar to it in his speech today.. but no, some of us know he wouldn't, why?

Iran have responded, no life lost. all is well . Trump and the US govt decided that violent threats are not needed again(since they have achieved their aims) US never meant to carry out those threats...

US decided to stop escalating the whole issue and go back to the status quo of the usual mantra of "Iran not acquiring nuclear power"

So when Trump came up today, to many people's surprise , he talked about peace, more sanctions for Iran(status quo) resolution and NATO's involvement in the Middle East peace process!

* After the Vietnam experience, US is not a country that will go into war blindly even when sure of winning except they were heavily attacked like the 9/11 osama bin laden attack which prompted the global war against terrorism.

*Iran only carried out a reprisal attack because of National prestige. They are not ready for war with USA.

Unless a stupid uncalculated move is carried out by Iran, the issue will die down like the US/North Korea issue..

Thank you for reading to the end .
John Olanipekun
B.A History and International Relations


What do lalasticlala, Dominique and Ishilove have to say about This?

By the way, please guys i am earnestly looking for internship opportunities, I need it to have experience and make an income for myself too at the side.. I stay in Ibadan Oyo state.. I have several skills that will be useful for your organization.. this is just one of em - please contact me on 08184961628

If you are in need of a writer too for any of your writing jobs.. I will like to take it on.. thank you

Help a fresh graduate please.
God bless.

Typical Blackman talk . Abeg go find how to give your country electricity and stop analysing what you don't know

Quite insightful.

GamalNasser:
Typical Blackman talk . Abeg go find how to give your country electricity and stop analysing what you don't know

hmm.. Lol Blackman talk? I don't know what you mean Nasser. My skin is black though..so yea it is a black man talking.. how does it affect the post? And what can a single me do to power the whole of Nigeria's electricity? Be Superman?

Brilliant piece...i expect a de-escalation in the coming days, weeks and months.

Well Said.... but I Perceive there will be closed door attacks here and there between Iran and the USA...

Having said that, Iran wants a war but not with the USA. Iran main target is Isreal..

GamalNasser:
Typical Blackman talk . Abeg go find how to give your country electricity and stop analysing what you don't know

analyse how Nigeria will have power?
dey will Neva!!!!!!!

kpakungu001:
Brilliant piece...i expect a de-escalation in the coming days, weeks and months.

yes true

Great write up